AA Rankings for 2/20/22 and Section Preview

[karl(east)]

We’ve reached the end of a wild and wide open season. Here’s what I have to offer heading into sections, put in the usual section preview-heavy format:

1. Cretin-Derham Hall (21-3)
2. Hill-Murray (20-4-1)
3. Moorhead (18-6-1)
4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (20-5)
5. Maple Grove (18-6-1)
6. Grand Rapids (18-6-1)
7. Edina (17-8)
8. Lakeville South (22-3)
9. Andover (19-5-1)
10. Wayzata (16-8-1)
11. Roseau (20-4-1)
12. Rogers (17-7-1)
13. Minnetonka (15-9-1)
14. Chaska (20-5)
15. Eden Prairie (14-11)
16. Centennial (17-5-3)
17. Prior Lake (15-10)
18. St. Thomas Academy (12-12-1)
19. Elk River (17-7-1)
20. Holy Angels (21-3-1)
21. Blake (16-9)
22. Lakeville North (19-6)
23. Champlin Park (14-10-1)
24. Gentry Academy (19-6)
25. Hastings (20-4-1)

1AA
PI 2/22 High Seed Home
QF 2/24 High Seed Home
SF 2/26 Rochester Rec Center
F 3/3 Rochester Rec Center

1. Lakeville South (#8)
-The Cougars are once again the clear favorites in 1AA and the AA team with the best odds to advance to St. Paul, as Tanner Ludtke, Ashton Dahms, and Aidan Willis lead the attack. They’re not as battle-tested as some of the other top ten teams and have occasionally failed to turn control into goals, but they are the team to beat once again in 1AA.
2. Lakeville North (#22)
-The Panthers’ final week win over Hastings confirmed the priors: they are the two-seed, marginally better than Hastings but far behind the top-seeded Cougars. If they can get by Hastings, they’ll need to show a lot more to pull out the upset.
3. Hastings (#25)
-The Raiders have been hovering on the fringes of the rankings for a while now, cruising against a weaker schedule than their South Suburban opponents but doing enough to stay relevant. Wins in sections would be upsets, but they’re not impossible.
4. Rochester Mayo
-The best of the rest, but the quarterfinal likely won’t be pretty.
5. Farmington
6. Owatonna
7. Rochester Century
8. Dodge County
9. Rochester John Marshall

2AA
QF 2/24 High Seed Home
SF 2/26 Braemar
F 3/2 Braemar

1. Eden Prairie (#15)
-In a year of uncertainty, the Eagles have been very reliable. They don’t have the talent of many of their recent teams, but they have a healthy mix of young talent and seniors who have established their roles, and in a wide-open 2AA, they set the bar. The question, now, is if one of their opponents here can unleash its talent and spoil the Lee Smith farewell tour.
2. Minnetonka (#13)
-The Skippers are surging toward the finish after a convincing win over Eden Prairie in the season’s final week. They did very well on the second swing through the Lake, losing just once in their last eight, and that in a pretty good showing against Edina. They are the hot, battle-tested hand in 2AA; question is, who will step up for them in big situations?
3. Chaska (#14)
-The Hawks roll into the playoffs on a 12-game winning streak. They schedule hasn’t been tough, but they did win the one big game they had against Benilde, and they’ve got the front-end talent to go places in Sam Rinzel, Sam Scheetz, and Tanner Bruender. That 3/6 game with Chanhassen sure is juicy, though.
4. Prior Lake (#17)
-And then there are the Lakers: the senior-heavy, very talented team that features one of the Mr. Hockey favorites in Alex Bump, who have been an enigma for most of the season. They did get away from bad losses down the stretch, though they showed a seeming ceiling in the loss to Lakeville South. Fortunately, the ceiling in 2AA is lower than Lakeville South, so they do have a real chance if they can, finally, pull it all together.
5. Holy Family
6. Chanhassen
7. Shakopee
8. Bloomington Jefferson

3AA
QF 2/22 High Seed Home
SF 2/25 Braemar
F 3/3 Braemar

1. Cretin-Derham Hall (#1)
-This season has been a very open one in AA, but the Raiders have made a home for themselves in the top spot in the rankings for a while now. They haven’t faced a ton of tests, but they have passed all of them down the stretch, and did enough in their difficult games early on to be a clear, though not decisive, number one. Playoff success has proven elusive over the years, and with a rival of a potential section finalist who has beaten them twice this season on the radar, winning this section is not a given. While their top players are not the very best in the state, the depth of quality here makes them tough to beat.
2. St. Thomas Academy (#18)
-The Cadets have been a fringe top 15 team for much of the season, proving they can win some big games but also collapsing thoroughly at times. They have enough pieces to pull the section upset, but will need to show more consistent strong structure than what they’ve done so far.
3. Eastview
-The Lightning beat St. Thomas back in December, so the semifinal upset is definitely in the realm of the possible. Anything more than that might be a reach, though.
4. Rosemount
-Picked up some decent wins earlier in the year, but that was a long time ago now, and they’ll need more juice to have any shot at Cretin.
5. Park (Cottage Grove)
6. Eagan
7. Apple Valley
8. Burnsville

4AA
PI 2/24 High Seed Home
QF 2/26 High Seed Home
SF 3/2 Aldrich
F 3/4 Aldrich

1. Hill-Murray (#2)
-The Pioneers’ strong final week of the regular season validates their #2 ranking and even led me to consider having them jump Cretin. They’ve got potential Mr. Hockey finalists up front (Dylan Godbout) and in back (Leo Gruba), and have overcome the loss of their starting goaltender without missing much of a beat. The offensive output has been a question at times this season, but as long as they avoid an outage, they are the prohibitive favorites in 4AA and will be well-situated for a high seed at State.
2. Stillwater
-The Ponies have hovered on the fringes of the top 15 for most of the season but never really had a breakthrough moment, though a rough final week, with a one-goal win over Roseville and a loss to Holy Family, tipped them from the top 25. They may be the best of the rest in 4AA, but will need to show more to have a crack at Hill.
3. White Bear Lake
-Gave Hill a decent game in the regular season, so they could be a threat if they go through, but have to get there first, and the consistency hasn’t quite been there all season.
4. Gentry Academy (#24)
-Two losses to Blake at the end of the regular season do not help the cause here, even if they did perhaps deserve a higher seed. With Barrett Hall in the fold they have some offensive firepower, but the all of the results from this hard-to-measure team suggest they’ll be hard-pressed to match Hill in a semifinal meeting.
5. Woodbury
6. Tartan
7. Roseville
8. Minnehaha Academy

5AA
PI 2/22 High Seed Home
QF 2/24 High Seed Home
SF 2/26 Fogerty
F 2/28 Furniture and Things (Elk River)

1. Rogers (#12)
-The Royals snagged the top seed in the final week of the season with a win over Centennial coupled with a win over Maple Grove earlier in the year. That’s a big deal in that it avoids facing a top 20 opponent in the semifinals, though if Champlin gets past Mounds View, they are a tough opponent for different reasons. Sam Ranallo and Hogan Sinjem lead a skilled offense; secondary scoring could be key in a potential section final against a deep Maple Grove or Centennial team.
2. Maple Grove (#5)
-The Crimson are not the top seed, but they are the favorite in this section, and a final week loss to Hill is only a small smudge on a strong late run. Josh Giuliani, Finn Brink, and Landen Gunderson carry a skilled attack, and they have a reliable supporting cast, plus an emerging star in Danny Nelson. The split with Centennial and loss to Rogers make it clear this will not be an easy road, but they have the skill to defend their section title.
3. Centennial (#16)
-This team has been potent all season long and has the offensive talent to stick with anyone, though they came up short in a 3-1 loss to Rogers in the season’s final week. It will be tough sledding for them to get through this section, but they have enough pieces to do it.
4. Mounds View
5. Champlin Park
-Probably the most dangerous five-seed out there, though first they have to atone for a rough loss to Mounds View at the end of the regular season.
6. Totino-Grace
7. Spring Lake Park
8. Osseo
9. Irondale

6AA
QF 2/24 High Seed Home
SF 2/26 Bloomington Ice Garden
F 3/2 Bloomington Ice Garden

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (#4)
-The Red Knights are top seed in 6AA after a strong regular season and are looking to break a 10-year Tourney drought, despite a lot of talent over that stretch. Their top-end finishing talent in the likes of Adam Marshall and Drew Stewart is a separator, and they have serious skill on the back end, too, in the form of Tristan Sarsland and Brady Yakesh. The top seed also makes their road significantly easier. But can they win that big one when it counts?
2. Edina (#7)
-The Hornets’ 1-0 win over Wayzata earned them the 2-seed and shows the lockdown style they’ll need to get past those same Trojans and Benilde to get out of this section. Up front it’s the Jimmy Clark and Trey Fechko show, but they have scoring depth as well, and solid enough up and down the lineup to be a title contender if they can string enough good games in a row.
3. Wayzata (#10)
-The Wayzata machine remains predictable, tough, and probably right where it wants to be; they have no great offensive standouts, but everyone chips in throughout a deep lineup. If they can fight past Edina in the teams’ fourth meeting, they have the formula to grind down Benilde for a second season in a row. Can they go State from a lower seed position for the fourth time in seven years?
4. Holy Angels (#20)
-The Stars took a big step forward by landing a top four seed this season; now, can they follow that up with a win? Anything more than that would be gravy.
5. Blake (#21)
-The Bears had a strong close to the regular season, beating Gentry twice, and have shown they are capable of being pesky here.
6. St. Louis Park
7. Armstrong/Cooper
8. Hopkins

7AA
QF 2/22 High Seed Home
SF 2/26 Amsoil
F 3/3 Amsoil

1. Andover (#9)
-All eyes are on the likely section final matchup here, as this team will likely sail through the first two rounds. Cayden Casey and Gavin Thoreson are a potent top line duo, while Weston Knox locks down the back end for a team that spent a good chunk of the season in the top five, but fell out down the stretch. The Huskies will need to generate more offense than they did in the regular season meeting to win at Amsoil.
2. Grand Rapids (#6)
-A tight loss to Hermantown at the end of the regular season does nothing to knock down this group. The Thunderhawks have a mobile, strong defense led by Easton Young and Ren Morque, and enough capable forwards to put up some decent production. If they can play their heavy style effectively, they are the favorites in this section.
3. Blaine
-Had some flashes of respectability during the regular season, but will need to find a different level to have a chance against Rapids.
4. Forest Lake
5. Anoka
6. Coon Rapids
7. Duluth East (def. #10 Northern Edge 3-0)
8. Cloquet (def. #9 Duluth Marshall 3-2)

8AA
QF 2/22 High Seed Home
SF 2/26 High Seed Home
F 3/2 TBD (Thief River Falls, St. Cloud, Fargo, or Bemidji)
1. Moorhead (#3)
-The Spuds, after a convincing win over Roseau and a narrow loss to Hill (their first since December 18), made a late surge up the rankings and are looking like one of the more dangerous teams out there. The top line of Gavin Lindberg, Harper Bentz, and Carson Triggs is potent, Joe Gramer is a beast on the blue line, and they fill out a deeper roster than their chief rival for the 8AA title.
2. Roseau (#11)
-It’s now or never for the Rams, who have all the pieces they need to end an eight-year Tourney drought. To separate themselves from a Moorhead team that just handled them, they’ll need their stars like Max Strand and Thor Byfuglien to shop up big, and they’ll need to hold up in back as well.
3. Elk River (#19)
-The Elks are a bit of a sleeper here; they’ve got the goaltending and the potent top line that could make them an upset threat if Roseau is looking ahead to a showdown with the Spuds in the title game. But the trek to Roseau, assuming they even win their first-rounder with Bemidji, will be a daunting one.
4. Buffalo
-Hey, they did beat Moorhead in December, so never say never here.
5. St. Michael-Albertville
6. Bemidji
7. Sartell
9. Brainerd (def. #8 St. Cloud 3-2 in OT)

My work here is done. Enjoy sections!

[alcloseshaver]

Thanks Karl, hoping you continue doing this.
Best rankings

[northwoods oldtimer]

"-It’s now or never for the Rams"

GO RAMS!!!!

Will miss the weekly rankings.Thanks Karl!!

[Sparlimb]

"-It’s now or never for the Rams"

GO RAMS!!!!

Will miss the weekly rankings.Thanks Karl!!

They already won a Super Bowl. So they used up their luck for the year.

[raidergrad72]

Thanks Karl and all of you guys who put in the time and effort to put these rankings together every week. Makes for interesting and enjoyable reading!

[elliott70]

Who is there 8th seed in 8AA?

[Joe2015]

Who is there 8th seed in 8AA?

Look again: its listed: Brainerd beat #8 Seed St Cloud 3 to 2 in OT to advance

[BlueLineSpecial]

Preseason Top 25
1 Cretin
2 Maple Grove
3 Moorhead
4 Edina
5 Andover
6 Hill Murray
7 Benilde
8 Lakeville South
9 Prior Lake
10 St. Thomas
11 Gentry
12 Chaska
13 Wayzata
14 Minnetonka
15 Roseau
16 Grand Rapids
17 Eden Prairie
18 Rogers
19 Blake
20 Centennial
21 Stillwater
22 Lakeville North
23 Holy Angels
24 Blaine
25 Shakopee

Final Regular Season Top 25
1 Cretin
2 Hill Murray
3 Moorhead
4 Benilde
5 Maple Grove
6 Grand Rapids (preseason #16)
7 Edina
8 Lakeville South
9 Andover
10 Wayzata
11 Roseau
12 Rogers (preseason #18)
13 Minnetonka
14 Chaska
15 Eden Prairie
16 Centennial
17 Prior Lake (preseason #9)
18 St. Thomas (preseason #10)
19 Elk River (preseason not ranked)
20 Holy Angels
21 Blake
22 Lakeville North
23 Champlin
24 Gentry (preseason #11)
25 Hastings

Red indicates dropping 5 or more spots from preseason to final regular season rankings. Green indicates rising 5 or more spots.

Still time for many of these teams to write their own script in the playoffs, good or bad. But interesting for me to see what predictions were compared to how the regular season played out

**EDIT - all things considered, quite a bit of stability from the preseason through the regular season. Only six teams with a 'sizable' rise or fall, Gentry having the biggest gap. And they're such a mystery still that it isn't terribly surprising....

[north_bear]

That is pretty impressive. Maybe Karl does know what he's talking about