AA Official Seeds

Post by **karl(east)** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:50 am

Lakeville North vs. #2 Edina
St. Michael-Albertville vs. #3 Duluth East
Hill-Murray vs. #1 Minnetonka
#5 Centennial vs. #4 St. Thomas Academy

elliott70 · Post by **elliott70** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 9:51 am

no surprises

Post by **karl(east)** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:05 am

elliott70 wrote:no surprises

Not unless you're an STA fan, as is my podcasting partner who just called to gripe.

LN vs. Edina: Rematch of the 2014 title game, and the 2015 title game that wasn't.
STMA vs. DE: Tourney upstart vs. a regular. Because of that some might think East got the easy draw, but STMA was ranked right around Hill and LN by the end and had an impressive run through sections, so I'm not convinced it is. And, the potential for an Edina-East semi if both deliver.
Hill vs. Tonka: Rematch of the 2010 4-OT epic
Centennial vs. STA: Should be a good, tight, defensive game.

mnmouth · Post by **mnmouth** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:11 am

East avoids one of its more recent nemeses (Centennial) for the starry-eyed newcomer

Post by **east hockey** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:15 am

mnmouth wrote:East avoids one of its more recent nemeses (Centennial) for the starry-eyed newcomer

They also avoid a team they've never beaten at State (Hill-Murray)

Lee

mnmouth · Post by **mnmouth** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:19 am

east hockey wrote:
mnmouth wrote:East avoids one of its more recent nemeses (Centennial) for the starry-eyed newcomer
They also avoid a team they've never beaten at State (Hill-Murray)

Lee

Right on. Might be their #1 nemesis.

Sparlimb · Post by **Sparlimb** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:26 am

east hockey wrote:
mnmouth wrote:East avoids one of its more recent nemeses (Centennial) for the starry-eyed newcomer
They also avoid a team they've never beaten at State (Hill-Murray)

Lee

This was East's year to break that curse. I don't think they'd have had much trouble with HM.

That said, Tonka looked really vulnerable in the section final. HF had 4 goals on 7 shots at one point including 3 on 3 shots in the third period. Hill actually played a pretty even game versus Tonka in the christmas tournament. So could be interesting. All that said, I'll pick Tonka something like 5-1.

hockey59 · Post by **hockey59** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:36 am

karl(east) wrote:Lakeville North vs. #2 Edina
St. Michael-Albertville vs. #3 Duluth East
Hill-Murray vs. #1 Minnetonka
#5 Centennial vs. #4 St. Thomas Academy

Again...it’s supposedly a random draw, but most every year, I don’t buy it. HM with the worst record playing Tonka, LN, with the 2nd worst record, playing Edina, and STMA, with the best record of the unseeded teams, playing DE. Now based on strength of schedule combined with record, I’d probably flip STMA & LN... but with being BARELY over .500 HM was going to play the 1st seed (Tonka).

hockey59 · Post by **hockey59** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:42 am

Should they both advance, Edina vs DE Friday night will
be (to date) the GAME of the year!

LASERBLUE135 · Post by **LASERBLUE135** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 10:58 am

hockey59 wrote:
karl(east) wrote:Lakeville North vs. #2 Edina
St. Michael-Albertville vs. #3 Duluth East
Hill-Murray vs. #1 Minnetonka
#5 Centennial vs. #4 St. Thomas Academy
Again...it’s supposedly a random draw, but most every year, I don’t buy it. HM with the worst record playing Tonka, LN, with the 2nd worst record, playing Edina, and STMA, with the best record of the unseeded teams, playing DE. Now based on strength of schedule combined with record, I’d probably flip STMA & LN... but with being BARELY over .500 HM was going to play the 1st seed (Tonka).

Funny how that works. But I’d still rather play anyone than Hill in the first round. But anything can happen. It’s state and the nerves are for real. The best teams have had games slip away...

East Side Pioneer Guy · Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:43 am

I wish MSHSL would just live stream the random draw and put the ridiculous conspiracy theories to rest. If it were that important they can just seed 1 to 8 and be done with it. Nearly every year, there is little difference between the bottom three teams anyway.

Any crime theory needs a motive. What's the motive for MSHSL to manipulate the draw when they can just seed 1 to 8 anyway?

On ridiculous theory I heard last night was that if Hill won they'd be #5 and STA would be #4 so "they" could eliminate one private school right away.

And what difference would it make if there was an STA-Edina final? For one, people love to hate Edina and Hill, and finals with either of them draw well. People say they like to see other teams in the final, but not as many pony $$$ when neither is in it.

But the difference in ticket sales is marginal anyway. It's not like attendance for the 3rd place/final session varies 5,000 from one year to the next. it's a marginal difference. If the MSHSL were that worried about selling an extra thousand tickets (and collecting the revenue), they hold the Section 2 & 6 finals on separate nights. the double header makes it more attractive to some, but the late end of the second game (on a weeknight) makes it less attractive to others, and capacity doubles.

The Ninety-nine Greatest Conspiracy Theories of All Time is a quick and fun read. Maybe if the author publishes a second book we can get an MSHSL conspiracy theory in.

Rich Clarke · Post by **Rich Clarke** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:51 am

Another way to make money would be to move section four to Marriucci. Eliminating Hill playing at their home rink (and the complaints you get about that) and making it easier for a larger number to see what is always a classic match up would seem to justify it even beyond the money.

O-townClown · Post by **O-townClown** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 11:59 am

East Side Pioneer Guy wrote:I wish MSHSL would just live stream the random draw and put the ridiculous conspiracy theories to rest.

WestMetro · Post by **WestMetro** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:20 pm

Good prediction last nite 59!

Agree with your comments today. The random draw things is a myth. They just seed the whole thing by final LPH poll.

Yes the Edina /East game will be great Friday night, Edina might be smelling weakness after the Andover game.

hockey59 · Post by **hockey59** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 1:35 pm

Amazing to realize Edina put EVERY team in the Lake conf on running time (at one point this season) goes 26-2, advances to State and is NOT the #1 seed. But that’s what happens when...the only team you lost to (twice) was another Lake conf team.

I’m really looking forward to the likely match up of Edina vs DE...think it could rival the BSM vs Edina semifinal from 2008. And STA has something to prove IMO against a dangerous Cougar!

O-townClown · Post by **O-townClown** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 2:02 pm

hockey59 wrote:Amazing to realize Edina put EVERY team in the Lake conf on running time (at one point this season) goes 26-2, advances to State and is NOT the #1 seed. But that’s what happens when...the only team you lost to (twice) was another Lake conf team. I’m really looking forward to the likely match up of Edina vs DE...think it could rival the BSM vs Edina semifinal from 2008. And STA has something to prove IMO against a dangerous Cougar!

Minnetonka is a lot tougher matchup for Edina than Duluth East.

hockey59 · Post by **hockey59** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:14 pm

O-townClown wrote:
hockey59 wrote:Amazing to realize Edina put EVERY team in the Lake conf on running time (at one point this season) goes 26-2, advances to State and is NOT the #1 seed. But that’s what happens when...the only team you lost to (twice) was another Lake conf team. I’m really looking forward to the likely match up of Edina vs DE...think it could rival the BSM vs Edina semifinal from 2008. And STA has something to prove IMO against a dangerous Cougar!
Minnetonka is a lot tougher matchup for Edina than Duluth East.

A lot tougher...as Marge Gunderson said to her deputy in Fargo “Don’t think I agree with your police work” on this one. Because of the style DE will play (if they meet in the semifinals) to control the puck, cycle, cycle, cycle, slow the game down & play physical...they are exactly the type of team capable of frustrating Edina. The real question (to me) is whether their goaltending will hold up to accomplish the tall task...of beating this years Edina team at State. And as much as I REALLY LIKE Tonka’s team this year, beating this years Edina team for the 3rd time, this time for all the marbles with Edina evidently (fully healthy & with no short term academic suspensions)

will be a very difficult task IMO. If both teams reach the FINAL...as much as I’ll be pulling for Tonka, I gotta go with the Hornets. But STA & a few other teams will try to say something about that. Gonna be a GREAT AA Tourney!

East Side Pioneer Guy · Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:37 pm

WestMetro wrote:Good prediction last nite 59!

Agree with your comments today. The random draw things is a myth. They just seed the whole thing by final LPH poll.

Yes the Edina /East game will be great Friday night, Edina might be smelling weakness after the Andover game.

Just curious, who is "they"? Don't the coaches involved vote on this? Or that rigged too? Or is it just the random draw that is rigged?

Is it just AA hockey that gets rigged? Are other sports rigged too?

I could easily see any coach figuring that voting the final LPH poll is easy and doesn't open them to charges of manipulation or favoritism of any kind. And if their seedings varied greatly from LPH, I'm sure you'd hear a lot of belly aching about that here.

Between the top three seeds and the three unseeded teams, what possible difference does it make if LVN or HM plays Tonka or Edina? This year especially, it's very much a two tiered field, with the unseeded squads improbable (but not impossible) odds of a first round win. How does MSHSL or anyone benefit from a rigged system?

And let me throw this out too: A 1 vs. 8 match up is bad for TV ratings. So a better conspiracy theory is that MSHSL doesn't want to increase the odds of a prime time blow out to keep KSTC happy and keep the TV $$$ flowing. If it's 6-1 near the end of the 2nd, a lot of viewrs may tune out and not return. That makes it a win for MSHSL & KSTC, giving a clear motive to the crime.

WestMetro · Post by **WestMetro** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:53 pm

East Side

IMHO it’s the Trny coaches on the conf call Sat morning along with the MSHSL officials on the call. In recent years matching the LPH final rankings team by team , the random draw for the lowest 3 teams no longer seems random. I have no problem mysel with seeding the whole thing based on LPH , it’s just weird they keep the random draw rule on the books

Would be interested from Karl how many recent years exactly match lph , this year did and 99 pc sure last year did

sherwood · Post by **sherwood** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:54 pm

Why dont they just seed the top 4 at State? Then let the number 1 team choose who they want to play followed by number 2 choosing next and so on. I bet Minnetonka would have never chosen Hill-Murray even though they had the worst record. Hill-Murray has lot more history at the state tournament and always plays big in big games thanks to coach Lechner. I feel like Minnetonka actually got the toughest draw and that doesn't make sense being the best team. Just my opinion on this whole seeding process either way it will be a great tourney and you gotta win three games regardless to take it home

knights14 · Post by **knights14** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 3:57 pm

Easy boys dont put the cart before the horse so fast. STMA will give East all they can handle. STMA's top 2 lines will skate with any top 2 lines at state they may not be as deep as some teams but next to Edina and Tonka they are by far one of the quickest and best passing teams in the tournament. East will be lucky to get by the knights.

hockey59 · Post by **hockey59** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:01 pm

WestMetro wrote:Good prediction last nite 59!

Agree with your comments today. The random draw things is a myth. They just seed the whole thing by final LPH poll.

Yes the Edina /East game will be great Friday night, Edina might be smelling weakness after the Andover game.

The point West Metro & I agree on is...since they started seeding 1-5 & random drawn 6-8 a number of years ago, the random draw has more often than not, produced pairings that closely mimick the LPH or even more accurately, Karl’s rankings. When this happens over a course of several years, logically & mathematically, it certainly appears the drawn is more like “quasi” Random

. That’s all WM & I are alluding too...do we have actual proof...no.

But if it walks like a duck & quacks like a duck...maybe...

hockey59 · Post by **hockey59** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:07 pm

knights14 wrote:Easy boys dont put the cart before the horse so fast. STMA will give East all they can handle. STMA's top 2 lines will skate with any top 2 lines at state they may not be as deep as some teams but next to Edina and Tonka they are by far one of the quickest and best passing teams in the tournament. East will be lucky to get by the knights.

Mike Randolph isn’t the type of coach who underestimates anybody at the State Tourney & I don’t doubt STMA will give DE a good game! Happy for the Knights & best of luck to them!

northwoods oldtimer · Post by **northwoods oldtimer** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:08 pm

WestMetro wrote:Good prediction last nite 59!

Agree with your comments today. The random draw things is a myth. They just seed the whole thing by final LPH poll.

Yes the Edina /East game will be great Friday night, Edina might be smelling weakness after the Andover game.

Westy, you are forgetting how the great Randini completely out coached Giles last time these 2 met at Xcel with a very lean lineup.
State is a clean slate expect a dandy if the 2 make semi's

I got no horse in the race and love the match ups!!

northwoods oldtimer · Post by **northwoods oldtimer** » Sat Mar 03, 2018 4:10 pm

O-townClown wrote:
hockey59 wrote:Amazing to realize Edina put EVERY team in the Lake conf on running time (at one point this season) goes 26-2, advances to State and is NOT the #1 seed. But that’s what happens when...the only team you lost to (twice) was another Lake conf team. I’m really looking forward to the likely match up of Edina vs DE...think it could rival the BSM vs Edina semifinal from 2008. And STA has something to prove IMO against a dangerous Cougar!
Minnetonka is a lot tougher matchup for Edina than Duluth East.

That's a bit of an assumption as the Cake and Hounds have not played each other in 2018.

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