AA Ranking Update for 2/21/16

[karl(east)]

Here’s a quick ranking update with an eye toward State Tournament seeds. This includes every AA team that’s still alive; everyone else has been cleared out. After Saturday’s wreckage, here’s an attempt at clarity:

1. Stillwater (23-1-1)
-Ponies for the top seed? If they take care of business, it’ll probably happen.

2. Lakeville North (21-5-1)
-The repeat suddenly looks like it is very much on the table. LPH doesn’t have them quite as high as me, so while I would put them here in the seeding pecking order, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them a spot or two lower. First, though, they have to beat a team that’s already taken them down twice.

3. Wayzata (18-8-1)
-Ended Edina’s great run by beating the Hornets a fourth time. Thanks to Cretin they don’t have to deal with Benilde, though they also lose a shot at a big win that could have helped their seeding résumé.

4. Eden Prairie (18-7-2)
-Won the war with Holy Family, and Prior Lake cleared their Lake nemesis, Minnetonka, from their path. LPH has them higher, so I could see them sliding ahead of Wayzata and North, in spite of their struggles at times this season.

5. Grand Rapids (20-6-1)
-Taking care of business. If any of the above four (and/or perhaps Bemidji) lose, the 7AA winner will probably get a seed after all.

6. Bemidji (22-2-2)
-The Lumberjacks are the toughest team to place here, and could at least make the argument that they belong right up by Stillwater, given their comparable schedules. Stay tuned.

7. Duluth East (18-9)
-On a day when a lot of old favorites went down, the Hounds delivered. They now take their crack at an eighth straight berth.

8. St. Thomas Academy (16-6-5)
-Lurking. It’ll take a bunch of upsets to get them a seed, but they could be an unpleasant first round draw.

9. Prior Lake (20-7)
-Well, the Lakers finally got a quality win. If they pull it off again and clip EP, they’ll certainly have an argument for a seed.

10. Hill-Murray (16-8-2)
-Had an adventure with Mounds View, which may not bode well, but should still get a crack at Stillwater in the 4AA final.

11. Burnsville (15-10-2)
-Have been pretty good down the stretch, but is it good enough to beat St. Thomas? The two are hard to compare.

12. Moorhead (16-10)
-The Taters have already beaten Bemidji once, and now get a chance to spoil their great season.

13. Farmington (17-8-1)
-Finally solved their Lakeville South hex to get a third crack at North.

14. Anoka (17-9)
-Yeah, 5AA’s not getting seeded. Anoka and Maple Grove split this year, with the Tornadoes taking the later meeting and having the somewhat better overall season.

15. Maple Grove (14-13)
-Impressive win over Blaine by the Crimson, and with Anoka up next, a trip to State is within reach. It should be a good game, even if the participants are total surprises.

16. Cretin-Derham Hall (16-11)
-Upset special, as the Raiders make the 6AA title game. Was this a one-off, or can they give Wayzata a game?

17. White Bear Lake (11-14-1)
-Hi Bears!

Woodbury (13-13)
-Upset Tartan to get a date with Hill and a mention in the rankings since their section doesn’t play its semis until Tuesday.

[WestMetro]

Karl, so if all favored teams win from here on out, the unseeded teams at the X based on your list would be Anoka,Bemidji and STA?

Agree it would be hard to differentiate and justify seeding Stillwater and not Bemidji, in which case if Bemidji moves up then Section 7 moves down

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

4. Eden Prairie (18-7-2)
-Won the war with Holy Family, .

Was it Holy War? Did Eden Prairie Mike grant issue a fatwa?

[karl(east)]

Karl, so if all favored teams win from here on out, the unseeded teams at the X based on your list would be Anoka,Bemidji and STA?

Agree it would be hard to differentiate and justify seeding Stillwater and not Bemidji, in which case if Bemidji moves up then Section 7 moves down

Agree on both counts. Rapids, having tied Bemidji and played a much tougher schedule, would have a decent argument for going ahead of the Jacks if the top seeds all go through. If East wins, I'd favor Bemidji (especially since one of Bemidji's losses is to a team that also clipped East once, Cloquet).

Was it Holy War? Did Eden Prairie Mike grant issue a fatwa?

I don't know if EP put out a fatwa, but it sure sounds like the HF people are readying an inquisition of the refs...we'll see if they can take back Braemar in next year's crusade.

[warriors41]

Karl, so if all favored teams win from here on out, the unseeded teams at the X based on your list would be Anoka,Bemidji and STA?

Agree it would be hard to differentiate and justify seeding Stillwater and not Bemidji, in which case if Bemidji moves up then Section 7 moves down

Agree on both counts. Rapids, having tied Bemidji and played a much tougher schedule, would have a decent argument for going ahead of the Jacks if the top seeds all go through. If East wins, I'd favor Bemidji (especially since one of Bemidji's losses is to a team that also clipped East once, Cloquet).

Was it Holy War? Did Eden Prairie Mike grant issue a fatwa?

I don't know if EP put out a fatwa, but it sure sounds like the HF people are readying an inquisition of the refs...we'll see if they can take back Braemar in next year's crusade.

Its been discussed for most of the year how you could rearrange almost of the team between 1-9 and be pretty close to how the rankings fall. With that being the case and BSM losing now, do you even see the seedings mattering that much? Even if the top ranked teams remaining from each section make it there won't be a very wide gap between the teams that get to the tournament this year. Should make for a fun year.

[karl(east)]

Its been discussed for most of the year how you could rearrange almost of the team between 1-9 and be pretty close to how the rankings fall. With that being the case and BSM losing now, do you even see the seedings mattering that much? Even if the top ranked teams remaining from each section make it there won't be a very wide gap between the teams that get to the tournament this year. Should make for a fun year.

You know, until yesterday, I probably would've agreed and said the seeding is going to basically be meaningless. But, now we're going to have a 5AA champion that never cracked the top 15 this year, and while they can both obviously take down a good team on the right day (they did yesterday), they're a step behind the rest. An upset in any section other than 7AA and maybe 2AA will now also give us another team that isn't really in the same league. Some top three seed is going to get Maple Grove or Anoka instead of St. Thomas or Bemidji or Rapids/East, and I expect that's a trade all of them would willingly make.

[LASERBLUE135]

I was thinking anyone in the top 15 could not only compete for, but WIN state. Now I'm thinking anyone in the top 10 after Saturday. Never have I seen such a wide open field. Flip coins and enjoy! I'll be cheering for everyone out of the top 10 of course.