Preseason Rankings, etc. for AA in 2009-10

[karl(east)]

A new season is upon us, and it’s time for some preseason rankings. I’ve had these mostly set in my head for a while, but I’ve delayed until as close to the actual start as possible so as to collect as much information as possible and allow for the unexpected. For the record, I didn’t change anything due to results from scrimmages or after looking at the preseason rankings issued by others.

My inner bureaucrat compels me to offer two disclaimers:
First, as I said frequently last year and will probably say again frequently this year, these are done in the spirit of fun. The strength of these ratings as opposed to the other ones out there is that they allow for civil discussion with the person doing the ranking. If you disagree or want an explanation, I encourage that; it’s exactly what I want. But if you’re here to trash or belabor the same point over and over again, I suggest you go somewhere else, or issue your own rankings--I have no monopoly on the business; I’m just some kid with a computer a thousand miles away who wonders whether Eden Prairie is better than Minnetonka while bored in lectures.

Second, I debated whether to issue preseason rankings at all. They involve even more guesswork than the already very subjective in-season rankings, and I wasn’t sure that I wanted to allow any preconceptions to possibly cloud later rankings that are more based on what actually happens. But I decided that these preconceptions exist whether I publish them on here or not, and I thought it might be interesting to see which, if any, of my preconceptions I overvalue or undervalue, so that I can learn from this and do better in the future.
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After each ranking, you’ll see a number. This is a very crude strength-of-schedule measurement I invented the other night. I assign each team on the team’s schedule a number 1 thru 5, 1 being the bottom of the barrel and 5 being a small elite tier of teams. If you have more questions about how I came up with those, I’d be happy to share. The final number you see is the total SOS scores of each game added together, divided by games played (practically no team has all of their games included in this, since some have yet-to-be-determined opponents in certain tournaments, and I didn’t want to rank some of the out-of-state competition I don’t know much about). I have no idea if this will be in any way useful, or if I’ll have the time to measure its usefulness, but I thought I’d throw it in there. It may not be perfect, but it does give some idea of how strong each schedule is.

Alright, enough of my blathering. The rankings:

1. Eden Prairie (3.400)
-The defending state champions may have lost Nick Leddy, but they return enough talent at all positions that I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt for the top spot. When in doubt, it’s usually best to favor the more experienced team. The early schedule is quite forgiving; their highest-ranked opponent in December is #10 right now.
Game (before next ranking, on the weekend of Dec. 5/6): next Saturday vs. Eastview

2. Minnetonka (3.818)
-In my mind the most talented team in the state, with an absolutely loaded defensive corps, a star forward, and a quality goalie. But for all the talent that’s come through Minnetonka over the past few years, there isn’t much to show for it, so for now they’re still behind their section rivals. A lot of early games against a bunch of good teams will give a good early measure.
Games: Friday at Woodbury Tournament--Duluth Marshall, Saturday at Woodbury Tourney--Tartan or #7 Woodbury, next Friday at Hibbing, next Saturday at Virginia

3. Bloomington Jefferson (3.304)
-Return large portions from the team that lost the fewest games of anyone in AA last year. After a very weak schedule last year, they’ve strengthened it by adding a major holiday tournament and a big early-season match-up with Centennial.
Games: Saturday vs. Rosemount, next Thursday at Chaska, next Saturday vs. #12 Centennial

4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (3.130--lowest of any ranked team)
-3 6AA teams in the top 4? Unfortunately, yes. They’ve got the best goalie of the top teams and I like their balance. The Stillwater game next week could be intriguing, but the bigger tests come later this month.
Games: next Tuesday at St. Cloud Tech, next Friday vs. Stillwater

5. Blaine (3.522)
-No top team will rely more on a single star, but with an excellent goalie and just enough depth around Bjugstad, they’ve got their best shot at a state title in quite some time. They’re the class of a very strong NWSC, and they start off their season with an interesting little test in the far north.
Game: next Friday at Roseau

6. Hill-Murray (3.174)
-They may lack the star power of the other top teams, but they make up for it with depth and a lot of experience relative to their general youth. The sort of team that an opponent hates to face. Two mildly interesting games over the next week and a half.
Games: Saturday vs. Burnsville, next Saturday vs. Duluth Marshall

7. Woodbury (3.227)
-Looking to recover from a disappointing end to last season, and the talent is certainly there. Plenty of depth and experience across the board. The early schedule is busy, and something of a mixed bag in terms of opponents.
Games: Thursday at Woodbury Tournament--Tartan, Saturday at Woodbury Tournament--#2 Minnetonka/Duluth Marshall, next Thursday at Eastview, next Saturday at East Ridge

8. Holy Angels (3.261)
-They return plenty of Reillys and other experienced players, so they should be able to absorb the loss of Mattson. They might get buffeted around in the early rankings, since they don’t play a game until December 11th , and nothing against a quality opponent until the 23rd.
Games: Idle

9. Cretin-Derham Hall (3.391)
-Return an awful lot of bodies from last year’s state tourney run, including their star, Mark Alt, so this team knows what it’s doing. One of only two teams in the top ten that graduated a starting goalie last year. The early schedule is not all that difficult.
Games: next Thursday vs. Blake, next Saturday vs. Stillwater

10. Elk River (3.652)
-Heaps of returning talent mean they’re the preseason class of 7AA and back on the statewide radar screen after a brief hiatus. The first game of the season is a huge one, as they compete with Andover for the top slot in the section.
Games: next Saturday at Andover

11. Edina (3.909--hardest in the state)
-Entering a rebuilding year after the loss of that spectacular graduating class, but they shouldn’t be taken lightly; there’s plenty of talent here and the feeder system is deep. The brutal SOS may lead to some growing pains, but it also could force them to grow up in a hurry and be a big problem for a higher seed in sections.
Games: Thursday at Wayzata Turkey Trot--Maple Grove, Friday at Wayzata Turkey Trot--#15 Wayzata/Buffalo, next Tuesday at Burnsville, next Saturday vs. St. Louis Park

12. Centennial (3.652)
-Have more talent than this seems to suggest, but I’m a bit down on Centennial with their repeated inability to do anything in Sections. Lovick and co. have a chance to achieve a lot this year, they just have to prove to me that they can do it. Two big games right out of the gates should be a good first chance to do that.
Games: next Thursday at #15 Wayzata, next Saturday at #3 Bloomington Jefferson

13. Moorhead (3.857)
-Lost a number of contributors to last year’s surprise run at State, but none of them are irreplaceable, and they return some decent players too. The section will provide more competition than it did last year. In an interesting schedule quirk, all of their games before Christmas are against the top teams in 8AA and two of the three northern teams in 7AA.
Game: Thursday at Grand Rapids

14. Duluth East (3.609)
-Lost the most of any contending team from last year. There is, however, a lot of interesting talent here, though it’s very raw. The strength of the youth pipeline and quality coaching should help prevent a major dropoff, though like Edina they’ll probably have some growing pains. The early schedule should be very telling, with 3 of their first 5 games coming against other good-but-not-great teams.
Games: next Tuesday at Cambridge-Isanti, next Thursday at Maple Grove, next Saturday vs. #15 Wayzata

15. Wayzata (3.636)
-Having the state champion Bantam team feeding in helps, but don’t expect an EP-like run. Still good enough to cause some problems, and a lot of big opponents over this first week and a half.
Games: Thursday at Wayzata Turkey Trot--Buffalo, Friday at Wayzata Turkey Trot--#11 Edina/Maple Grove, next Thursday vs. #12 Centennial, next Saturday at #14 Duluth East
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Now, a quick rundown on the sections. I’ve listed the teams that I think are capable of contending for a section title, or at least of causing serious complications come sections.
1AA
Lakeville North
Rochester Century
Lakeville South
-Century has a decent shot of repeating but has to contend with the two Lakevilles. As usual, it’s the weak link in AA, though I think it’s up a little from last year.

2AA
2-Bloomington Jefferson
8-Holy Angels
11-Edina
Burnsville?
-With the graduation of last year’s Edina class, this section is open for the taking, and Jefferson is perfectly positioned to step in. If they falter, though a quality AHA team is there to take advantage, and while Edina may be a very different team, they are still a pretty good team. One of the more interesting sections to watch this year.

3AA
7 Woodbury
9 Cretin-Derham Hall
Apple Valley
Eagan?
-One of the most intriguing sections this year. It’s better than it has been in past years, and features a pretty talented defending champ that is not the favorite. I also had a hard time not ranking Apple Valley; I’m very high on them, and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see them come out of 3AA.

4AA
6 Hill-Murray
Stillwater
Tartan
White Bear Lake
-Though the rankings make it look like Hill’s a ways ahead of the pack, this still looks to be a very competitive section. It has three teams that are alright but need to do something to distinguish themselves; it’ll be interesting to see who might emerge as a challenger. Another one that will be very interesting to watch.

5AA
5 Blaine
12 Centennial
Osseo
Maple Grove
-Blaine is in a pretty good position to extend its dynasty over the section, but if Centennial can pull themselves together they’ll provide a good challenge, and Osseo and Maple Grove are among the more dangerous nonranked teams.

6AA
1 Eden Prairie
2 Minnetonka
4 Benilde
15 Wayzata
Hopkins?
-Let the fun begin. EP and Tonka meet on January 5th, while neither plays Benilde, so it could end up being a ranking and seeding nightmare. It will be virtually impossible for the winner of this section not to get the #1 seed at state; someone else (ie. Jefferson) would probably have to run the table for that to happen in my mind. If all of the hype is justified, of course.

7AA
10 Elk River
14 Duluth East
Andover
Grand Rapids?
-With East losing so much to graduation, this one is wide open, and the suburban periphery has its best shot in quite some time at a 7AA title. Andover deserves a special mention here, as they lost practically nothing to graduation and are loaded with seniors. Of course, we’ve been hearing for a couple years now about how good this group is going to be, and nothing’s come of it yet. But if they knock off Elk River next Saturday, look out. East is still very much in the picture despite the graduations, and Rapids is hovering on the edge as usual too.

8AA
13 Moorhead
Roseau
Brainerd?
Bemidji?
St. Cloud Tech??
-The talent gap between the usual suspects and the rest is smaller than it’s been in a while, so this might be the year someone else climbs into the picture. Moorhead’s still in the driver’s seat, though, and though Roseau will be pretty good, I’m not buying the hype some people are giving to a team that had a mediocre year by its standards last year and also lost Tyler Landman. There enough talent up there to make some noise if enough things go right, though.

Note: I will be traveling halfway across the country and back Wednesday to Saturday, so I apologize for the lateness of any feedback. Happy Thanksgiving, and Happy Hockey Season!

[Zamman]

Thanks for the start of another season, it should be fun.
AHA will be tested hard within the first month of the season. Get past Missota then they have Tonka twice and Edina before the middle of January.

[breakout]

Well done Karl

[Factsmatter1]

Karl,

This pre-season ranking is a tough one to argue with. I think you nailed the pre-season as well as anyone could... Great job and thanks again for putting in the time to do a thorough job.

[PowerForward25]

Nice work Karl. Always a pleasure to read.

[minnesotaice]

Thanks for starting this up again Karl, great rankings.

my opinions: the only team I'm not sold on so far is BSM. Maybe I've been overlooking something but they are too young of a team and inexperienced. The roster that is posted on mshsl.org says that Benilde has 6 freshman and only a handful of seniors.

The rest of the list is tough to argue against though and we really wont know how good teams are until the season is in full swing. Thanks again!

[MNHockeyFan]

Thanks for starting this up again Karl, great rankings.

my opinions: the only team I'm not sold on so far is BSM. Maybe I've been overlooking something but they are too young of a team and inexperienced. The roster that is posted on mshsl.org says that Benilde has 6 freshman and only a handful of seniors.

The rest of the list is tough to argue against though and we really wont know how good teams are until the season is in full swing. Thanks again!

Would have to agree that #4 for BSM is probably a tad optimistic. But we shall see...

[karl(east)]

I did pause for a moment as I started writing the BSM entry to say, "wait, why do I have them ahead of Blaine again?" It's possible that I'm putting a little too much stock in Meyers. I'll leave it for now, though.

[Goldfishdude]

Karl..... your insight and unbiased opinion is always awesome to read. If it were me, I would have put your East boys #3 . Regardless, I look forward to following a great season with many quality teams and individuals.

[Papa Bergundy]

I hope that someday somebody pays you to do this. Great work, again.

[karl(east)]

I hope that someday somebody pays you to do this. Great work, again.

Do I have a volunteer?

Now THAT would be an amazing job.

[Roseauverrated]

Very nice job Karl, I can't say I disagree with anything. It'll be interesting to look back at these towards the end of the season and see which teams surprised us this year for better or worse. I look forward to your weekly rankings again this season.

[karl(east)]

With so few games there will be no new rankings this week, but I have a few comments on these first two days:

-Well, Minnetonka sure sent a message to the rest of the state, didn't they? A complete demolition of another top-10 team means Eden Prairie had better be paying attention.
-Wayzata made a statement with the win over Edina; it shows the balance of power is shifting in the Classic Lake.

The problem with early games like these is that it's hard to tell whether the results are because the winner is that much better than we thought, or because the loser is that much worse, or somewhere in between. That should sort itself out in time.

Otherwise, all the higher-ranked teams took care of business, as did some of the second-tier teams I would have favored in possibly close games (Stillwater, WBL). The Stillwater-Rapids game was an interesting one that might end up meaning something at some point.

[Doglover]

Wow karl - really hard to argue with anything in your well thoughtout and researched rankings. I first questioned BSM too but you're dead on about Meyers - he is definitely a goalie that can win them tight games.

Minnetonka is going to be tough to beat this year and they leave little doubt after the weekend that they will be a number one squad. Confused after checking out the Wayzata/Edina game. Looks like Edina is running 4 lines? That will definitely make it tough to win games and must be frustrating for their first line players getting so little ice time. Still early so maybe the teams are still trying to figure out what they've got. Rooting for Stillwater to take it to HM when they meet up.