07-08 Class AA prognostication thread

[keepitreal]

Who will emerge and who will slip back next season? Odds-on picks will be those who finished strong, have good returing strength and senior leadership, especially in the nets.

Not trying to slight anyone's team nor offend, just looking for opinions on which teams will gel next season and offer some analysis based on their returning strength. For amusement purposes only. And, these are in no particular order, just my thoughts. Feel free to add your own or argue mine...

In class AA, it looks to me like the more things change, the more they stay the same. Many/most of the top-ranked teams return with strong rosters, but as always there will be some surprises and some who will fall back from their finish in 06-07. Let's take a look...

Stillwater The surprising champs return with a solid core of young talent. A handful of graduating seniors, including the goalie, will clear the way for emerging players from one of the better/deeper youth programs in the state, making the Ponies a strong contender for several years to come. A repeat is not out of the question, but I think it will be tough this season.

Eden Prairie loses keys Stoa, Lambert and goalie Elliot, but will be back very strong with the deepest incoming senior roster (13!) in the state, another good senior goalie and a strong sense of urgency for next season in what will probably be the team's last hurrah until they go back to the well for a few years.

Benilde will likely benefit from a final infusion of transfer players before the deadline and will once again be a top-3 contender. Loss of Reilly and Trunzo will be felt, but there should be more than enough talent to deliver another trip to state if they can gel for 2nd year coach Herbst. This team should have a major chip on their shoulders.

Roseville is another team that will mature along with their 2nd year coach Vic Brodt. The graduation of workhorse Erin Cody and a few other seniors will be felt, but this team is always competitive. Will have to get past Stillwater; not sure they have enough to do so.

(North Metro) Tri-City Wildcats The Cinderella co-op will be hard-pressed to repeat their surprising success with the loss of many key seniors, not to mention BSM looking for revenge in their section.

Centennial loses eight seniors but is fed by a very talented and deep youth program along with a core of good underclassmen talent. My early favorite in section 5, but Irondale could give them some trouble.

Irondale also has a good young core. Graduates Udvig off D and goalie Brashun; do they have a replacement in the nets ready to go?

Blaine may slide with the loss of the state's top goaltender Nixon as well as the backup goalie and a handful of other players. Fortunately they have coach Steve Guider who keeps churning out star goalies.

Cloquet may suffer the same fate as Blaine, but probably to a greater degree with the graduation of Thunder.

Holy Angels will try to hold steady with a loss of eight seniors including goalie Westberg, but will reload with incoming young talent and some solid transfers as they attempt to contend in a tougher section.

Grand Rapids-Greenway returns most of their key players and are again the favorites in their section. They will have to be wary of Forest Lake who plays tough.

Coon Rapids loses a talented goalie and two franchise players in Rassmussen and Windmeier. I think it will be tough for them to keep pace with Centennial and Irondale in their section.

Bemidji also loses a good goaltender and two forwards but returns a young core of players. Should continue to be strong out of their section but Elk River and rising Moorhead could give them trouble at playoff time.

Edina loses a handful of impact players, especially at D, but has such a deep program it will be a perennial contender. I think Eden Prairie will be a roadblock this year in sections, but they will battle. Edina's fortunes improve dramatically when EP descends in 08-09.

Burnsville graduates goalie Mortinson who helped the upstart Blaze to the tourney and five others, but has some nice younger talent. They will need to hold off Eagan and a scrappy Hastings team. It will be tough to repeat their run but things look better after next season.

Eagan features a strong group of incoming seniors including what most feel is the strongest goalie tandem in the state. This team should be on the rise and is who I consider the section favorite.

Hopkins returns virtually all key players to a young talented team and has landed a talented transfer student. A darkhorse pick that could surprise BSM and/or Wayzata; no longer has to contend with nemisis Edina in sections.

Wayzata graduates Zurek, Yunger and Lorenz but still features a solid core of talent and a good senior goalie. New section but will have to get past BSM and Hopkins to advance.

Farmington makes the jump to AA to contend with Rochester Mayo and both Lakeville teams in the new section 1. Farmington and Mayo and LV North are suffering key graduation losses; not sure who will emerge but I don't see any of these teams as top 20 this year.



I could easily be wrong though

Fire away!

[MNHockeyFan]

keepitreal, your write-up is so comprehensive I'm just wondering how anyone is going to add anything! You obviously know the teams very well - GREAT job.

[keepitreal]

keepitreal, your write-up is so comprehensive I'm just wondering how anyone is going to add anything! You obviously know the teams very well - GREAT job.

Well I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night... thanks though!

I'm quite certain there will be some who take exception to some of the things I've written, but I welcome their comments and challenges. Just suffering from a little post-season withdrawl I guess and trying to stimulate some lively discussion. It's pretty easy to pick up on last year's strong finishers, but I'd like to know who are the surprise teams that people expect to make a move next season. I managed to see most of these teams at some point last season-- the growing parity in girls hockey is a great thing to see.

I'll take a crack at the 1A schools later maybe, but that one is much harder to handicap as the loss of just one or two key players will really hurt the smaller schools.

[hockeyrube7]

"Keepitreal", you have been on of the best at this, do you see a "Dark Horse" in this years crowd? Will there be another "North Metro Studs" type of team to conglomerate some where maybe? And what is your take on the Duluth team this year, they should be much better?

[SEMetro]

Good list, but I don't see the number of seniors as the most important factor. IMO teams improve more from new students (O/E's, move ins, private enrollees) and youth hockey players moving directly to varsity rather than from dramatic improvement of existing varsity players and/or call ups from JV. I suspect this has more to do with the fact that girls physically mature much earlier than boys and can impact at young ages - as well the lack of player ##'s and the ability of a few good players to make a huge difference.

For this reason, Cretin and Hill have to be added to the list. Both teams had solid win/loss records last year and will undoubtedly add new talent.

For a dark horse, I would go with Minnetonka - although it is not a secret that they are about to get a strong influx of youth players that will make an immediate impact. They had a couple impressive wins at the end of the season.

[SEhockeyDAD]

keepitreal, you should put out a girls hockey guide next fall. Put it in the arenas next to Lets Play Hockey!

Re. Cloquet; the graduation of Thunder may not be as significant as some might think. Look at the North '92's Phase 2 roster; not one, but both goalies are from Cloquet. Call it the Blaine goalie factory of the north.

Re. Hopkins; I'm tempted to raise them above darkhorse status. Becky Kortum's already a top forward and 9th grader Cara Johnson, who was another awesome young forward, is joining her on the phase 2 roster. They might be 2 goalies deep also, as their goalie from this last year, Kallyn Billadeau, is on the phase 2 roster with Hopkins bantam A goalie Tiana Press.

As a section 1 dad, I have to agree with you; no top 20's from section 1, but it'll be an interesting section tournament.

[boblee]

Re. Cloquet; the graduation of Thunder may not be as significant as some might think. Look at the North '92's Phase 2 roster; not one, but both goalies are from Cloquet. Call it the Blaine goalie factory of the north.

Keep in mind, they are the only two who tried out.

[allhoc11]

Re. Hopkins; They might be 2 goalies deep also, as their goalie from this last year, Kallyn Billadeau, is on the phase 2 roster with Hopkins bantam A goalie Tiana Press.

I do think Hopkins is a legit top 10 team next year, but I would anticipate that Press will be a BSM kid like her older sister. If the transfer rumor is true, the player they are getting is very good, along with the possibility of a top level player who left last year maybe returning. They should be a top contender next year.

[MNHockeyFan]

I do think Hopkins is a legit top 10 team next year, but I would anticipate that Press will be a BSM kid like her older sister. If the transfer rumor is true, the player they are getting is very good, along with the possibility of a top level player who left last year maybe returning. They should be a top contender next year.

I couldn't agree more re: Hopkins. They were very close to being a Top 10 this past year, and will obviously be improved for '07-'08. The only question will be how much.

Regarding Tiana Press she has been enrolled at BSM during junior high, and I have heard nothing about her moving to a different school for senior high. The only question is whether she will play Bantams again next year. The last I heard she was leaning towards playing high school girls.

[keepitreal]

I will agree the number of incoming seniors is not the most important factor, but the loss of top players and key seniors to graduation is quite important. Likewise I elevate teams that didn't lose key players, and/or whose best players are moving into their senior year. I think good senior leadership is largely essential for a team to go all the way, but sometimes underclassmen can step into that role. I'm also a big believer in senior goalies, the young North Metro goalie notwithstanding, the winning net had a senior and I believe both goalies in the 1A final were seniors as well. Their poise and experience makes a big difference.

I'm always amazed at how players can improve from one year to the next. And it's stunning to see some very young and very talented players. It seemed to me there was a larger number than normal this year as young as 8th grade who not only stepped in to a varsity role, but made sizable contributions. We've now started to see the impact of girls who started playing hockey in mini-mites, and the number of talented players should continue to expand. Not certain if this is a fact, but I heard it said Katherine Chute from Blake was the first Ms. Hockey to play her entire career on girls teams.

Agree on the point about HM and CDH; like the other hockey-oriented privates there's a fair chance this could be a big year for incoming players who duck under the wire prior to the new transfer rule kicking in, but the same can be said about some of the up and coming public schools as well, such as Hopkins, who seems to have landed another key transfer.

I would call Hopkins a darkhorse only in terms of their section that has one team I view as a very strong AA contender (BSM) and another very deep team in Wayzata. Hopkins was ranked 18-20 range most of the season due to early struggles but made strong moves in the 2nd half. They were within an overtime goal of knocking off Wayzata in sections last year and actually seemed to have taken the momentum away in the 3rd and OT. With no key players lost and that valuable experience they should absolutely be in the hunt and hover around top ten overall, a considerable improvement.

[keepitreal]

"Keepitreal", you have been on of the best at this, do you see a "Dark Horse" in this years crowd? Will there be another "North Metro Studs" type of team to conglomerate some where maybe? And what is your take on the Duluth team this year, they should be much better?

Unfortunately I have not seen Duluth, so I plead ignorance. I will say I view GRG as the class of that section, with some amazing players who are well known in NDP circles.

As for "out-of-nowhere" dark horses, I don't see any playing for a state title again, but there will be surprise teams who emerge into the top 20; the aforementioned Hopkins leading the pack within the top ranked teams.
---
Good call on Tonka SE Metro; they should indeed be improved but I think they are a year or so from making that big move. They have had incredible recent success in youth, winning the state U14 titles at both 14A and 14B this season. Mike Ramsey's daughter Rachel will make an immediate impact as a freshman and they will benefit from several other solid players from that program. I've read that Tonka youth player Jordyn Burns will go to, yes-- BSM-- as the rich get richer

As far as youth impact, I'm curious as to why White Bear Lake isn't making more noise; they have an awesome feeder program on the lines of Edina or Stillwater. Granted they play in a very tough section and probably lose their share to Hill Murray...
---
Haven't seen the two 92 Cloquet goalies, I didn't take note of them at NDP. I wonder if Dave Ellison, the father of former Cloquet standout Johanna Ellison, is still helping develop goalies up there because they sure seem to keep turning them out. I feel Thunder was every bit as impressive as Nixon, but playing behind Ellison didn't give her the opportunity.



edited for accuracy

[jumpstart]

[/quote] Good call on Tonka SE Metro; they should indeed be improved but I think they are a year or so from making that big move. They have had incredible recent success in youth, wining back-to-back state titles at U14A and I think they had two U14 teams that did well? [/quote]

I don't think Minnetonka won back-to-back state titles at U14A. Mtka won state at U14A this year, but I'm 99% sure Edina won it the previous year.


[/quote] As far as youth impact, I'm curious as to why White Bear Lake isn't making more noise; they have an awesome feeder program on the lines of Edina or Stillwater. Granted they play in a very tough section and probably lose their share to Hill Murray...[/quote]

WBL lost a very good player (Melly Doyle) to Totino last year and will more than likely lose two very good players (Marissa and Hannah Brandt) to Hill this coming year. Three players may not sound like alot, but when they are 3 KEY players it can really make a diffrence. I think WBL will be competitive this year and give some teams a run for their money.

[hockeygod]

something I don't see happening anymore is girls being lost to Hill, I think Hill will emerge as a very solid team this year and if they can put together some scoring they may be the team to beat in there section (they will still have pesky stillwater and Roseville teams to deal with). Remember they had one of the top defenses in the state last season, they only lost a couple people to graduation, they have a new coach coming in from the boys program and have an influx of new faces coming in as freshmen..no one will any longer be lost to Hill, they will come to Hill to shine

[jumpstart]

no one will any longer be lost to Hill, they will come to Hill to shine

Semantics. It's not Hill's loss ... it's WBL's loss. In my opinion, it's Hill's huge gain!

[keepitreal]

I don't think Minnetonka won back-to-back state titles at U14A. Mtka won state at U14A this year, but I'm 99% sure Edina won it the previous year.

I stand corrected and agree that the loss/gain of a few key players, either by graduation or transfer, can have a sizable effect on the fortunes of a team.

[hockeyfamily]

Minnetonka should be very good next year!! My daughter's team played their U14A's a few times this year and they were outstanding. Their 14A's could have skated against many high school teams without any trouble. The Ramsey girl is very talented along with 3-4 other players. Should be fun to watch them next year.

[MNHockeyFan]

Although Minnetonka should be improved it will take more than 3 or 4 talented girls moving up from U14 to make Minnetonka a real contender. My predicted order of finish in the Classic Lake:

1. Edina
2. Hopkins
3. Wayzata
4. Minnetonka
5. Armstrong

Of course I should add the usual caveat: I could be wrong

[SEMetro]

My daughter's team played their U14A's a few times this year and they were outstanding. Their 14A's could have skated against many high school teams without any trouble.

Easy now

[rookie1980]

Although Minnetonka should be improved it will take more than 3 or 4 talented girls moving up from U14 to make Minnetonka a real contender. My predicted order of finish in the Classic Lake:

1. Edina
2. Hopkins
3. Wayzata
4. Minnetonka
5. Armstrong

Of course I should add the usual caveat: I could be wrong

I'm new to posting on here but I will say this much I don't think Edina will be Number One next year to youg and lost to much to repeat. This is how I see it. Hopkins will be very strong but still has some weak areas. Wayzata last 3 players but has strong SR forewards this year. Armstrong lost a ton of SR so it will be very tough this year. Minnetonka as well very young.
So here is how I see it.

1/2 Hopkins/Wayzata
3. Edina
4. Minnetonka
5. Armstrong

And that is how I see the new section playing out as well. I don't see BSM as a threat to either Hopkins or Wayzata.

I could get good at this, just kidding..

[MNHockeyFan]

I'm new to posting on here but I will say this much I don't think Edina will be Number One next year to youg and lost to much to repeat. This is how I see it. Hopkins will be very strong but still has some weak areas. Wayzata last 3 players but has strong SR forewards this year. Armstrong lost a ton of SR so it will be very tough this year. Minnetonka as well very young.
So here is how I see it.

1/2 Hopkins/Wayzata
3. Edina
4. Minnetonka
5. Armstrong

And that is how I see the new section playing out as well. I don't see BSM as a threat to either Hopkins or Wayzata.

I could get good at this, just kidding..

Even though Edina is losing much of last year's offensive production to graduation, their real strength this past year was in their overall balance and team defense. No doubt with their returning goalie, their deep youth program plus a very good JV team they will be tough again defensively next year as well. The real question will be can they score enough against other teams that are deep + strong defensively. Wayzata and Hopkins certainly won't be easy wins for anybody.

I am curious, though, why you think Benilde won't be a threat to Wayzata and Hopkins in the section (?). Most other observers (me included) believe they will have a very good team once again next year.

[boblee]

Did the one year trial of "North Metro" become a permanent solution?

[MNHockeyFan]

Did the one year trial of "North Metro" become a permanent solution?

I believe ghs posted elsewhere that each of these cooperative teams much obtain approval from the League each year. So if the number of players should go up significantly on one or more of the participating teams, this could have an influence on the decision to allow the co-op team to remain intact, or not. As long as this annual approval process continues I don't believe you could regard any of these cooperatives as being a "permanent solution".

[keepitreal]

Did the one year trial of "North Metro" become a permanent solution?

Not sure, but they are no longer listed as the North Metro Stars but have a new page as the Tri-City Wildcats (same as the former Fridley/BC/Columbia Heights coop) at the MSHSL girls hockey website. The footnote says "This team is a cooperative sponsorship between: Brooklyn Center High School, Columbia Heights High School, Fridley High School, Osseo High School, Park Center High School". Penta-City Wildcats just doesn't have a good ring to it I suppose

[twowayplay]

Minnetonka girls have done the following in State over the past few years

2003 - 12U A 3rd
2005 - 12U A 2nd
2007 - U14 A 1st
2007 - U14 B 1st

Coach Johnson will have a different problem this year....who not to play....If they find some scoring they will be a tough test in 07-08. Remember they beat Wayzata this year and could upset both Edina or Hopkins in any given game next year.

I would go with the following

Edina
Hopkins
Minnetonka
Wayzata

Edina get's the nod because someone needs to knock them off. I know Wayzata is good defensively but where will the offense come from?

[keepitreal]

Even though Edina is losing much of last year's offensive production to graduation, their real strength this past year was in their overall balance and team defense. No doubt with their returning goalie, their deep youth program plus a very good JV team they will be tough again defensively next year as well. The real question will be can they score enough against other teams that are deep + strong defensively. Wayzata and Hopkins certainly won't be easy wins for anybody.

I am curious, though, why you think Benilde won't be a threat to Wayzata and Hopkins in the section (?). Most other observers (me included) believe they will have a very good team once again next year.

I agree. Edina's depth from the popularity of their amazing youth program will always yield a competitive team year in and out. They've always had a strong defensive orientation, and their depth gives them large numbers of bigger and older players that lets them play very physical. They will give you the perimeter but won't give anything in front of their net, and will try to create mistakes with a physical forecheck in the O zone. One could argue that Wayzata and Hopkins might have more offensive flash, but Edina's style of play will continue to give them fits in the Classic Lake. Trust me when I tell you both teams will be happy to be away from the Hornets in sections, especially Hopkins who have had no success against them.

As far as BSM not being a threat in to Wayzata & Hopkins in sections, we'll have to see about that, but I'm with MNHockeyFan. They will be very strong and a definite threat.

All four of these teams are excellent, top-ten caliber IMHO.