Minnesota Boy HS Varsity LSQRank: Feb16, 2025 by Section

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LSQRANK
Posts: 427
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Minnesota Boy HS Varsity LSQRank: Feb16, 2025 by Section

Post by LSQRANK »

Code: Select all

Minnesota Boy HS Varsity LSQRank: Feb16, 2025  by Section 

MN
LSQRank SCORE_VALUE                     TEAM  SEC CLS GP   WW-LL-TT
----------------------------------------------------------------------
18    1016.8305                LakevilleSouth  1  AA  25  (16- 9- 0) 
54    1013.9525                LakevilleNorth  1  AA  25  (12-12- 1) 
57    1013.4265                    Farmington  1  AA  25  ( 9-15- 1) 
59    1013.2876           RochesterCentury/JM  1  AA  25  (18- 6- 1) 
78    1011.7102                     NewPrague  1  AA  25  ( 9-14- 2) 
99    1010.1371                      Owatonna  1  AA  25  (11-13- 1) 
115   1007.7394                 RochesterMayo  1  AA  25  ( 5-20- 0) 

8     1018.9634                      Shakopee  2  AA  25  (19- 5- 1) 
11    1017.9313                    Minnetonka  2  AA  25  (13-10- 2) 
12    1017.9202                   EdenPrairie  2  AA  25  (15- 7- 3) 
26    1015.9542                    HolyFamily  2  AA  25  (18- 7- 0) 
38    1014.7419                     PriorLake  2  AA  25  (11-12- 2) 
43    1014.2176                    Chanhassen  2  AA  25  ( 8-16- 1) 
72    1012.0336                       Waconia  2  AA  25  (16- 9- 0) 
92    1010.7371          BloomingtonJefferson  2  AA  25  (10-15- 0) 
98    1010.2407                        Chaska  2  AA  25  ( 3-20- 2) 

5     1019.6617              St.ThomasAcademy  3  AA  25  (20- 5- 0) 
7     1019.2162             Cretin-DerhamHall  3  AA  25  (21- 3- 1) 
10    1018.3165                     Rosemount  3  AA  25  (22- 3- 0) 
22    1016.2151            ParkofCottageGrove  3  AA  25  (14-10- 1) 
44    1014.1492                     TwoRivers  3  AA  25  (18- 5- 2) 
58    1013.3797                      Eastview  3  AA  25  ( 9-16- 0) 
67    1012.4844        AppleValley/Burnsville  3  AA  25  (10-15- 0) 
71    1012.1225                         Eagan  3  AA  25  ( 4-21- 0) 
81    1011.6241                      Hastings  3  AA  25  (11-13- 1) 

1     1020.3227                   Hill-Murray  4  AA  25  (22- 2- 1) 
3     1019.8110                    Stillwater  4  AA  25  (21- 4- 0) 
14    1017.7090                 WhiteBearLake  4  AA  25  (15- 7- 3) 
24    1016.0087                     Roseville  4  AA  25  (15-10- 0) 
29    1015.6088                 GentryAcademy  4  AA  25  (18- 7- 0) 
34    1015.1861                      Woodbury  4  AA  25  (10-14- 1) 
53    1013.9565                     EastRidge  4  AA  25  (10-15- 0) 
80    1011.6279                    MoundsView  4  AA  25  ( 4-21- 0) 
109   1009.1392                        Tartan  4  AA  25  (11-14- 0) 
134   1004.0875                St.PaulJohnson  4  AA  24  ( 9-13- 2) 

2     1019.8912                        Rogers  5  AA  25  (20- 3- 2) 
16    1016.9824                    MapleGrove  5  AA  25  (14-10- 1) 
21    1016.2390                  ChamplinPark  5  AA  25  (16- 9- 0) 
27    1015.8619                        Blaine  5  AA  25  (16- 9- 0) 
37    1014.7569                  Totino-Grace  5  AA  25  (15- 9- 1) 
46    1014.1300     SpringLakePark/CoonRapids  5  AA  25  (11-14- 0) 
49    1014.0651                    Centennial  5  AA  25  ( 9-16- 0) 
93    1010.6664                         Osseo  5  AA  25  ( 6-18- 1) 
104   1009.6526                      Irondale  5  AA  25  (10-14- 1) 

6     1019.3145                         Edina  6  AA  25  (17- 5- 3) 
9     1018.3637         Benilde-St.Margaret's  6  AA  25  (20- 5- 0) 
13    1017.7113                    HolyAngels  6  AA  25  (21- 3- 1) 
15    1017.6326                       Wayzata  6  AA  25  (13- 8- 4) 
32    1015.4069                  St.LouisPark  6  AA  25  (16- 9- 0) 
35    1014.8753                         Blake  6  AA  25  (19- 6- 0) 
61    1013.1688   RobbinsdaleArmstrong/Cooper  6  AA  25  ( 8-16- 1) 
75    1011.7458                       Hopkins  6  AA  25  (10-15- 0) 

19    1016.6431                   GrandRapids  7  AA  25  (15- 8- 2) 
20    1016.5020                       Andover  7  AA  25  (12-13- 0) 
23    1016.0188                     RockRidge  7  AA  25  (20- 3- 2) 
39    1014.6713                    ForestLake  7  AA  25  (11-14- 0) 
51    1014.0288                DuluthMarshall  7  AA  25  (14- 9- 2) 
66    1012.5446                 DuluthDenfeld  7  AA  25  (11-14- 0) 
69    1012.3135                    DuluthEast  7  AA  26  ( 4-22- 0) 
86    1011.2624              Cambridge-Isanti  7  AA  26  (11-14- 1) 
101   1009.8959                         Anoka  7  AA  26  ( 6-19- 1) 
128   1005.0479                  NorthernEdge  7  AA  26  ( 6-20- 0) 

4     1019.7748                      Moorhead  8  AA  25  (22- 2- 1) 
25    1015.9809                       Bemidji  8  AA  25  (18- 5- 2) 
33    1015.2232            ElkRiver/Zimmerman  8  AA  25  (10-13- 2) 
40    1014.6533        St.Michael-Albertville  8  AA  25  (11-14- 0) 
47    1014.1002                       Sartell  8  AA  25  (15- 9- 1) 
56    1013.7920                        Roseau  8  AA  25  (14-10- 1) 
65    1012.6155                       Buffalo  8  AA  25  ( 6-19- 0) 
85    1011.2852                      Brainerd  8  AA  26  ( 5-20- 1) 
95    1010.5277                      St.Cloud  8  AA  26  ( 5-20- 1)

45    1014.1325                    Northfield  1   A  25  (19- 4- 2) 
63    1012.9796                        Waseca  1   A  25  (20- 3- 2) 
84    1011.2858              RochesterLourdes  1   A  25  (14-10- 1) 
97    1010.2477                     AlbertLea  1   A  25  (16- 6- 3) 
100   1010.0091                   DodgeCounty  1   A  24  ( 9-15- 0) 
110   1008.6022                        Winona  1   A  25  (13-10- 2) 
114   1007.7464                        Austin  1   A  25  (16- 8- 1) 
125   1005.7659              LaCrescent-Hokah  1   A  25  ( 8-13- 4) 
127   1005.5616                       RedWing  1   A  25  ( 2-21- 2) 
138   1002.3345                     Faribault  1   A  24  ( 5-18- 1) 

36    1014.8626                         Orono  2   A  25  (12-10- 3) 
48    1014.0695                        Delano  2   A  25  (14-10- 1) 
55    1013.8985                   Minneapolis  2   A  25  (15- 7- 3) 
73    1011.8695             ProvidenceAcademy  2   A  25  (11-11- 3) 
74    1011.7688                         Breck  2   A  24  (11-11- 2) 
96    1010.3135                    Hutchinson  2   A  25  (11-12- 2) 
108   1009.2658                 MoundWestonka  2   A  25  (11-14- 0) 
111   1008.2415      Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato  2   A  25  ( 8-17- 0) 

77    1011.7368                       Luverne  3   A  25  (19- 4- 2) 
87    1011.2309                   MankatoWest  3   A  25  (11-12- 2) 
102   1009.7285                   MankatoEast  3   A  25  ( 9-16- 0) 
103   1009.7145                        NewUlm  3   A  25  (11-12- 2) 
107   1009.4597                MinnesotaRiver  3   A  25  (11-13- 1) 
117   1007.1526                      Marshall  3   A  25  (11-14- 0) 
140   1000.9655                   Worthington  3   A  25  ( 7-18- 0) 
141   1000.9510                        Windom  3   A  25  ( 6-18- 1) 
142   1000.8064                 RedwoodValley  3   A  24  ( 5-19- 0) 
143   1000.0000                      Fairmont  3   A  24  ( 1-23- 0) 

52    1013.9699                     Mahtomedi  4   A  25  ( 8-15- 2) 
68    1012.3568                  ChisagoLakes  4   A  25  (14- 9- 2) 
105   1009.6041  SouthwestChristian/Richfield  4   A  25  ( 9-14- 2) 
112   1008.0554           St.PaulHighlandPark  4   A  25  ( 7-16- 2) 
113   1007.9681                  SouthSt.Paul  4   A  25  ( 6-18- 1) 
118   1007.1086                        Simley  4   A  25  (11-14- 0) 
121   1006.0196                St.PaulAcademy  4   A  25  ( 8-17- 0) 
139   1001.4574            BloomingtonKennedy  4   A  24  ( 1-23- 0) 

41    1014.5747                    Monticello  5   A  25  (21- 3- 1) 
42    1014.5397             St.CloudCathedral  5   A  25  (15- 8- 2) 
62    1013.0126                   LittleFalls  5   A  25  (14- 7- 4) 
76    1011.7450               SaukRapids-Rice  5   A  25  (16- 8- 1) 
88    1011.1340                  PineCityArea  5   A  24  (13-10- 1) 
89    1011.1154                     Princeton  5   A  25  ( 8-17- 0) 
90    1011.0091                    RiverLakes  5   A  25  (15- 8- 2) 
119   1006.8414                Becker/BigLake  5   A  26  ( 9-15- 2) 
131   1004.6208                   Mora/Milaca  5   A  26  (10-16- 0) 

60    1013.1786                 NorthernLakes  6   A  25  (16- 8- 1) 
70    1012.2879                    Alexandria  6   A  25  (12-13- 0) 
94    1010.6324                   FergusFalls  6   A  25  (12-13- 0) 
122   1005.9156                       Willmar  6   A  25  ( 8-17- 0) 
123   1005.8702                 PrairieCentre  6   A  25  (17- 8- 0) 
124   1005.8077         Breckenridge/Wahpeton  6   A  25  ( 9-15- 1) 
132   1004.2156             Morris/BensonArea  6   A  24  ( 9-15- 0) 
136   1003.2898              Wadena-DeerCreek  6   A  25  ( 6-19- 0) 

17    1016.8780                    Hermantown  7   A  25  (13- 8- 4) 
30    1015.5962              Hibbing/Chisholm  7   A  25  (16- 9- 0) 
31    1015.5801          Cloquet/Esko/Carlton  7   A  25  (18- 7- 0) 
82    1011.5332                       Proctor  7   A  25  (13-11- 1) 
106   1009.4618            InternationalFalls  7   A  25  (17- 8- 0) 
120   1006.2497                    NorthShore  7   A  25  (10-15- 0) 
126   1005.5962                      Greenway  7   A  25  ( 8-16- 1) 
130   1004.7977                 MooseLakeArea  7   A  24  (13-11- 0) 
137   1002.8778                           Ely  7   A  23  ( 5-18- 0) 

28    1015.6877                       Warroad  8   A  25  (18- 6- 1) 
50    1014.0432                EastGrandForks  8   A  25  (10-13- 2) 
64    1012.7273                  DetroitLakes  8   A  25  ( 9-13- 3) 
79    1011.6871               ThiefRiverFalls  8   A  21  ( 8-12- 1) 
83    1011.4139                  RedLakeFalls  8   A  25  (21- 4- 0) 
91    1010.7551                     Crookston  8   A  25  (17- 7- 1) 
116   1007.3565                Bagley/Fosston  8   A  25  (15-10- 0) 
129   1004.8209          KittsonCountyCentral  8   A  21  ( 5-15- 1) 
133   1004.2155                LakeoftheWoods  8   A  23  ( 4-19- 0) 
135   1003.4280                    ParkRapids  8   A  26  ( 9-17- 0)
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LSQRANK
Posts: 427
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Re: Minnesota Boy HS Varsity LSQRank: Feb16, 2025 by Section

Post by LSQRANK »

Score Differential Predictions based on Feb 16 Least Squares Solution.

Code: Select all


 Tues Feb 18 MN Section Games
 
                                                               Goal
                                                               Differential
														
 MoundsView               Over        Tartan                   by   2.5     2     
 Proctor                  Over        IFalls                   by   2.1     2     
 Andover                  Over        DuluthDenfeld            by   4.0     4     
 Rock Ridge               Over        DuluthEast               by   3.7     4     
 East Grand Forks         Over        Bagley/Fosston           by   6.7     7  RT
 Warroad                  Over        Park Rapids              by  12.3    12  RT
 Hermantown               Over        Greenway                 by  11.3    11  RT
 Hibbing/Chisholm         Over        North Shore              by   9.4     9  RT
 Sartell                  Over        Roseau                   by   0.3     1  OT
 Bemidji                  Over        Buffalo                  by   3.4     3     
 Northern Lakes           Over        Wadena-Deer Creek        by   9.9    10  RT                   
 Detroit Lakes            Over        Thief River Falls        by   1.0     1                   
 La Crescent-Hokah        Over        Red Wing                 by   0.2     1  OT                   
 Austin                   Over        Faribault                by   5.4     5                  
 Elk River/Zimmerman      Over        St. Michael-Albertville  by   0.6     1  OT                              
 Moorhead                 Over        Brainerd                 by   8.5     8  RT                       
 Bloomington Jefferson    Over        Chaska                   by   0.5     1  OT   Upset                              
 Osseo                    Over        Irondale                 by   1.0     1                              
 Grand Rapids             Over        Cambridge-Isanti         by   5.4     5                              
 Forest Lake              Over        Duluth Marshall          by   0.7     1  OT                              
 Monticello               Over        Becker/Big Lake          by   7.8     8  RT                              
 Red Lake Falls           Over        Crookston                by   0.6     1  OT                              
 Cloquet/Esko/Carlton     Over        Moose Lake Area          by  10.8    11  RT                               
 Fergus Falls             Over        Willmar                  by   4.7     5                              
 Alexandria               Over        Morris/Benson Area       by   8.1     8  RT                              
 Prairie Centre           Over        Breckenridge/Wahpeton    by   0.01    1  OT   Draw, but someone has to win                           
 St. Cloud Cathedral      Over        Princeton                by   3.4     3                         
 Little Falls             Over        River Lakes              by   2.0     2                         
 Sauk Rapids-Rice         Over        Pine City Area           by   0.6     1  OT    Upset                          
 Eagan                    Over        Hastings                 by   0.5     1  OT    Upset                              
 East Ridge               Over        St. Paul Johnson         by  10.0    10  RT
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O-townClown
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Re: Minnesota Boy HS Varsity LSQRank: Feb16, 2025 by Section

Post by O-townClown »

Great stuff! Love the pointspreads.
Be kind. Rewind.
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LSQRANK
Posts: 427
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Re: Minnesota Boy HS Varsity LSQRank: Feb16, 2025 by Section

Post by LSQRANK »

Below I did a more thorough analysis of the predicted point spreads. The beauty of using Least Squares is that one can using the difference in the rating values to predict the point spread of future games. I'll be interested in seeing if there is a pattern in the End-Of-Game status with regard to ENG's

Code: Select all

Date            Predicted Winning Team         Rating       Predicted Losing Team           Rating       DIFF    Predicted    End of Game
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Margin       Status           
2025  02  18    MoundsView                     1011.6279    Tartan                          1009.1392    2.4887    2          regulation                
2025  02  18    Proctor                        1011.5332    InternationalFalls              1009.4618    2.0714    2          regulation                
2025  02  18    Andover                        1016.502     DuluthDenfeld                   1012.5446    3.9574    4          regulation                
2025  02  18    RockRidge                      1016.0188    DuluthEast                      1012.3135    3.7053    4          regulation                
2025  02  18    EastGrandForks                 1014.0432    Bagley/Fosston                  1007.3565    6.6867    7          Running Time              
2025  02  18    Warroad                        1015.6877    ParkRapids                      1003.428     12.2597   12         Running Time              
2025  02  18    Hermantown                     1016.878     Greenway                        1005.5962    11.2818   11         Running Time              
2025  02  18    Hibbing/Chisholm               1015.5962    NorthShore                      1006.2497    9.3465    9          Running Time              
2025  02  18    Sartell                        1014.1002    Roseau                          1013.792     0.3082    1          OT                        
2025  02  18    Bemidji                        1015.9809    Buffalo                         1012.6155    3.3654    3          regulation                
2025  02  18    NorthernLakes                  1013.1786    Wadena-DeerCreek                1003.2898    9.8888    10         Running Time              
2025  02  18    DetroitLakes                   1012.7273    ThiefRiverFalls                 1011.6871    1.0402    1          regulation                
2025  02  18    LaCrescent-Hokah               1005.7659    RedWing                         1005.5616    0.2043    1          OT                        
2025  02  18    Austin                         1007.7464    Faribault                       1002.3345    5.4119    5          regulation                
2025  02  18    ElkRiver/Zimmerman             1015.2232    St.Michael-Albertville          1014.6533    0.5699    1          OT                        
2025  02  18    Moorhead                       1019.7748    Brainerd                        1011.2852    8.4896    8          Running Time              
2025  02  18    BloomingtonJefferson           1010.7371    Chaska                          1010.2407    0.4964    1          OT                        
2025  02  18    Osseo                          1010.6664    Irondale                        1009.6526    1.0138    1          regulation                
2025  02  18    GrandRapids                    1016.6431    Cambridge-Isanti                1011.2624    5.3807    5          regulation                
2025  02  18    ForestLake                     1014.6713    DuluthMarshall                  1014.0288    0.6425    1          OT                        
2025  02  18    Monticello                     1014.5747    Becker/BigLake                  1006.8414    7.7333    8          Running Time              
2025  02  18    RedLakeFalls                   1011.4139    Crookston                       1010.7551    0.6588    1          OT                        
2025  02  18    Cloquet/Esko/Carlton           1015.5801    MooseLakeArea                   1004.7977    10.7824   11         Running Time              
2025  02  18    FergusFalls                    1010.6324    Willmar                         1005.9156    4.7168    5          regulation                
2025  02  18    Alexandria                     1012.2879    Morris/BensonArea               1004.2156    8.0723    8          Running Time              
2025  02  18    PrairieCentre                  1005.8702    Breckenridge/Wahpeton           1005.8077    0.0625    1          OT                        
2025  02  18    St.CloudCathedral              1014.5397    Princeton                       1011.1154    3.4243    3          regulation                
2025  02  18    LittleFalls                    1013.0126    RiverLakes                      1011.0091    2.0035    2          regulation                
2025  02  18    SaukRapids-Rice                1011.745     PineCityArea                    1011.134     0.611     1          OT                        
2025  02  18    Eagan                          1012.1225    Hastings                        1011.6241    0.4984    1          OT                        
2025  02  18    EastRidge                      1013.9565    St.PaulJohnson                  1004.0875    9.869     10         Running Time              
2025  02  20    Farmington                     1013.4265    NewPrague                       1011.7102    1.7163    2          regulation                
2025  02  20    LakevilleNorth                 1013.9525    RochesterMayo                   1007.7394    6.2131    6          Running Time              
2025  02  20    RochesterCentury/JM            1013.2876    Owatonna                        1010.1371    3.1505    3          regulation                
2025  02  20    HolyFamily                     1015.9542    PriorLake                       1014.7419    1.2123    1          regulation                
2025  02  20    Shakopee                       1018.9634    Waconia                         1012.0336    6.9298    7          Running Time              
2025  02  20    Minnetonka                     1017.9313    Chanhassen                      1014.2176    3.7137    4          regulation                
2025  02  20    ParkofCottageGrove             1016.2151    TwoRivers                       1014.1492    2.0659    2          regulation                
2025  02  20    Cretin-DerhamHall              1019.2162    AppleValley/Burnsville          1012.4844    6.7318    7          Running Time              
2025  02  20    Rosemount                      1018.3165    Eastview                        1013.3797    4.9368    5          regulation                
2025  02  22    Roseville                      1016.0087    GentryAcademy                   1015.6088    0.3999    1          OT                        
2025  02  22    WhiteBearLake                  1017.709     Woodbury                        1015.1861    2.5229    3          regulation                
2025  02  20    Blaine                         1015.8619    Totino-Grace                    1014.7569    1.105     1          regulation                
2025  02  20    ChamplinPark                   1016.239     Centennial                      1014.0651    2.1739    2          regulation                
2025  02  20    MapleGrove                     1016.9824    SpringLakePark/CoonRapids       1014.13      2.8524    3          regulation                
2025  02  20    Edina                          1019.3145    RobbinsdaleArmstrong/Cooper     1013.1688    6.1457    6          Running Time              
2025  02  20    Wayzata                        1017.6326    Hopkins                         1011.7458    5.8868    6          Running Time              
2025  02  20    HolyAngels                     1017.7113    Blake                           1014.8753    2.836     3          regulation                
2025  02  20    Benilde-St.Margaret's          1018.3637    St.LouisPark                    1015.4069    2.9568    3          regulation                
2025  02  20    AlbertLea                      1010.2477    DodgeCounty                     1010.0091    0.2386    1          OT                        
2025  02  20    RochesterLourdes               1011.2858    Winona                          1008.6022    2.6836    3          regulation                
2025  02  19    Minneapolis                    1013.8985    Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato        1008.2415    5.657     6          Running Time              
2025  02  19    ProvidenceAcademy              1011.8695    Breck                           1011.7688    0.1007    1          OT                        
2025  02  19    Delano                         1014.0695    MoundWestonka                   1009.2658    4.8037    5          regulation                
2025  02  19    Orono                          1014.8626    Hutchinson                      1010.3135    4.5491    5          regulation                
2025  02  20    MankatoEast                    1009.7285    MinnesotaRiver                  1009.4597    0.2688    1          OT                        
2025  02  20    NewUlm                         1009.7145    Marshall                        1007.1526    2.5619    3          regulation                
2025  02  20    Mahtomedi                      1013.9699    SouthSt.Paul                    1007.9681    6.0018    6          Running Time              
2025  02  20    SouthwestChristian/Richfield   1009.6041    St.PaulHighlandPark             1008.0554    1.5487    2          regulation                
2025  02  19    ChisagoLakes                   1012.3568    BloomingtonKennedy              1001.4574    10.8994   11         Running Time              
2025  02  19    Simley                         1007.1086    St.PaulAcademy                  1006.0196    1.089     1          regulation                
2025  02  19    SaukRapids-Rice                1011.745     PineCityArea                    1011.134     0.611     1          OT
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BSUBeaver
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Re: Minnesota Boy HS Varsity LSQRank: Feb16, 2025 by Section

Post by BSUBeaver »

I absolutely like looking at these figures. I hope you don't mind, but I took some of this info and posted it over on the 6A thread.
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