ClassAGuy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2024 9:20 am
PageStat again showing its a much better computer model than QRF ... yikes... But QRF does tend to get better as the year goes but just not the best model for hockey.
Couple notes the Computer Model doesnt take into account that Coaches generally do-
BW Blades beat Willmar head to head in only meeting gives Blades the nod over them for now
Morris Benson is (3-6-0) but at the moment own head to head wins over BW Blades & WDC
I dont see a world where Alexandria is not the 1, 2 or 3 seed depending on how their second game goes with Northern Lakes and their season series vs Fergus. Otters have been a nice surprise this year so far.
The Top 3 feel locked in some order but man will the battle for the 4 through 8 seeds be wild- BW Blades, Willmar, PC, MBA & WDC are all dead even every time they play its like a 1 goal or OT game.
Fun side story BW Blades could get the 4 seed and win the 4 vs 5 game if that happens would be first time ever in program history they make the semifinals pretty awesome story for a program that is coming off going (7-79-0) in the last 4 years combined.
It is early, but I kind of like to post these every week and see how they change as the year goes on. And I kind of like the fact that mathematical models take the human element out of it.
Breck/Wahp could be a very compelling story. We are kind of following them as my son played with a couple of their players in fall hockey two years ago on a 14U team.
ClassAGuy wrote: ↑Mon Dec 23, 2024 9:20 am
PageStat again showing its a much better computer model than QRF ... yikes... But QRF does tend to get better as the year goes but just not the best model for hockey.
Couple notes the Computer Model doesnt take into account that Coaches generally do-
BW Blades beat Willmar head to head in only meeting gives Blades the nod over them for now
Morris Benson is (3-6-0) but at the moment own head to head wins over BW Blades & WDC
I dont see a world where Alexandria is not the 1, 2 or 3 seed depending on how their second game goes with Northern Lakes and their season series vs Fergus. Otters have been a nice surprise this year so far.
The Top 3 feel locked in some order but man will the battle for the 4 through 8 seeds be wild- BW Blades, Willmar, PC, MBA & WDC are all dead even every time they play its like a 1 goal or OT game.
Fun side story BW Blades could get the 4 seed and win the 4 vs 5 game if that happens would be first time ever in program history they make the semifinals pretty awesome story for a program that is coming off going (7-79-0) in the last 4 years combined.
It is early, but I kind of like to post these every week and see how they change as the year goes on. And I kind of like the fact that mathematical models take the human element out of it.
Breck/Wahp could be a very compelling story. We are kind of following them as my son played with a couple of their players in fall hockey two years ago on a 14U team.
Yes, please don't get me wrong, no issue with posting the Computer based models at all was just saying PageStat always feels like better model to use for hockey than QRF but I know it will get better as the year goes on.
Coaches votes I agree can be biased but I guess in all honesty if Alex is who I think they are they would still make the Section final as #7 seed under QRF seeding currently.
Always enjoy watching the computer models week to week to see if they catch up to actual games being played. Fun stuff!
I am very curious to watch 4-8 play out just because they are so even this year.
6A Summary-Alexandria won their only game of the week outside the section. Fergus Falls got a 6A win over Breckenridge/Wahpeton. Prairie Centre got a 6A win over Morris/Benson. Willmar all went (2-1-0) outside of the section up north over the Holidays. Northern Lakes & Wadena Deer Creek both took the holiday break off.
January 2, 2025
St. Cloud at Alexandria
Fergus Falls at River Lakes
Willmar at Brainerd
January 3, 2025
River Lakes at Breckenridge/Wahpeton
Northern Lakes at Morris/Benson
Lake of the Woods at Wadena-Deer Creek
January 4, 2025
Marshall at Fergus Falls
Willmar at Litchfield
Southwest Christian at Northern Lakes
Morris/Benson at Windom
North Shore at Wadena-Deer Creek
6A Summary-Northern Lakes got a Section 6A win over Morris/Benson this week. Alexandria won their only game outside the section and Fergus Falls & Wadena Deer Creek went (.500) outside the section. Breckenridge/Wahpeton & Willmar both went winless outside the section. Prairie Centre was idle this week.
Week 8, some interesting games this week that may help give some insight to what the end of the season standings may look like, or it may just muddy things up that much more.
January 7, 2025
Fergus Falls at Alexandria
River Lakes at Willmar
Wadena-Deer Creek at Breckenridge/Wahpeton
Superior (WI) at Northern Lakes
Morris/Benson at Prairie Centre
January 9, 2025
Alexandria at Brainerd
St. Cloud at Fergus Falls
Wadena-Deer Creek at Willmar
Morris/Benson at Breckenridge/Wahpeton
Northern Lakes at Greenway
Park Rapids at Prairie Centre
January 11, 2025
Breckenridge/Wahpeton at Bagley/Fosston
Marshall at Northern Lakes
Wadena-Deer Creek at May-Port (ND)
6A Summary-Northern Lakes went (2-1-0) outside of the section. Alexandria got a Section 6A win over Fergus Falls. Breckenridge/Wahpeton & Prairie Centre both got 6A wins over Morris/Benson. Willmar and the Blades both got Section 6A wins over Wadena Deer Creek which makes the above ranking feel solid as of 1/12/25.
January 14, 2025
Alexandria at Little Falls
Fergus Falls at Breckenridge/Wahpeton
Morris/Benson at Willmar
St. Cloud Cathedral at Northern Lakes
Prairie Centre at Redwood Valley
January 16, 2025
Alexandria at Sartell
Breckenridge/Wahpeton at Park Rapids
Northern Lakes at River Lakes
Wadena-Deer Creek at Morris/Benson
Sauk Rapids-Rice at Prairie Centre
January 18, 2025
Northern Lakes at Alexandria
Fergus Falls at Thief River Falls
Wadena-Deer Creek at Ely
BSUBeaver wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:05 am
Ugh, Breckenridge/Wahpeton, so close this year. 7 OT games, 1-5-1 record in those games.
So true BSU! They still though as of today control the #4 seed in 6A. Still important 2nd games with PC and WDC but if they win those two they will be the 4 seed most likely. They would have a great shot at making their 1st ever SF in MN. They are mainly all Sophs rooting for them a fun story!
Breckenridge a good story.
But not in the top 50 of single A schools.
Fortunately MSHSL still does things geographically so that makes them a fun story.
If some (here and elsewhere) had there way it would be the top 32 and that’s it.
So let’s keep it the way it is and go Breckenridge!
BSUBeaver wrote: ↑Fri Jan 17, 2025 11:05 am
Ugh, Breckenridge/Wahpeton, so close this year. 7 OT games, 1-5-1 record in those games.
So true BSU! They still though as of today control the #4 seed in 6A. Still important 2nd games with PC and WDC but if they win those two they will be the 4 seed most likely. They would have a great shot at making their 1st ever SF in MN. They are mainly all Sophs rooting for them a fun story!
My son played summer/fall hockey with a couple of them two years ago, so they have been fun to follow from a distance.
Elliott, I agree, definitely not top 50, but for a program that has been down for so long, to be "THAT" close to having a winning record.....
6A Summary-Northern Lakes got a 6A sweep over Alexandria. Fergus Falls got 6A wins over Breckenridge/Wahpeton & Willmar. Prairie Centre & Morris/Benson both got 6A wins over Wadena Deer Creek. The Storm also got a 6A win over the Cardinals this week.
January 20, 2025
River Lakes at Alexandria (rescheduled from 12/19/24)
January 21, 2025
Sartell at Fergus Falls
May-Port (ND) at Breckenridge/Wahpeton
Northern Lakes at Little Falls
Sauk Rapids-Rice at Morris/Benson
Park Rapids at Wadena-Deer Creek
January 23, 2025
Willmar at Alexandria
Fergus Falls at Sauk Rapids-Rice
Prairie Centre at Breckenridge/Wahpeton
Proctor at Northern Lakes
Wadena-Deer Creek at Moose Lake Area (rescheduled from 11/22/2024)
January 24, 2025
Willmar at Prairie Centre
Dodge County at Northern Lakes
Morris/Benson at Fairmont
January 25, 2025
Becker/Big Lake at Breckenridge/Wahpeton
Morris/Benson at Worthington
Wadena-Deer Creek at Kittson Central
6A Summary- Northern Lakes went (2-1-0) outside of the Section. Alexandria got a 6A win over Willmar. Fergus Falls went winless outside of the section. Breckenridge/Wahpeton pretty much locked up the 4 seed with a 6A sweep of Prairie Centre but the Northstars did beat the Cardinals to solidify their spot at the 5 seed. Morris/Benson went (2-1-0) outside the section this week and Wadena Deer Creek went (1-2-0) outside the section.