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https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
I was inspired by an earlier comment about favorites for Ms. Hockey for next year, so wanted to look at how the ’23 group compared to the junior year seasons of past Ms. Hockey winners. This remains a very points (and goals) focused analysis, and there’s more to hockey than points. Also, obviously, the play next year will be the dominant factor in who wins the award, but I thought it would be interesting to see what the standard is and how the current ‘23s measured up. I included:
Reputation
- making the U18 team
- ’21-22 all state honors
Raw scoring (regular season only)
- goals/game
- assists/game
- pts/game
- % of a team’s offense
--- goals as % of team total
--- pts as a % of team total
--- (adjusted if a player missed games)
Strength of schedule adjusted scoring (regular season only)
- G and Pts/G vs top 10 teams
- G and Pts/G vs top 20 teams
- G and Pts/G vs teams ranked 21 and higher
All of these stats were from this year for the ‘23s, and the Ms. Hockey winners’ stats were from THEIR junior year (and the SoS based on rankings from that year’s top 10 and top 20 teams - all from historical myhockeyrankings.com data). They are also separated by position (the 8 past forwards that won are compared to the ’23 forwards, and the 3 past D that won compared to the ’23 D).
The Ms. Hockey winners stats (available on the Data tab) are summarized with Minimum, Median and Maximum values. The ’23s stats were then put into a “heat map.” Each player’s stat is color coded as follows:
- RED - players stat is below the minimum value of any Ms. Hockey winner (at that position)
- YELLOW - players stat is between the minimum and the median
- GREEN - players stat is greater than the median (but less than the max)
- BRIGHT GREEN - players stat is greater than or equal to the max value
For All state, the color coding is the same as my earlier spreadsheet - dark green is AA all state, bright green is A all state, orange is AA HM, and tan is A HM.
For the U18 column, since past Ms Hockey winners have failed to make a US U18 team, players that did not make it are orange, and players that did (Lindsay and Jenessa Gazdik) are green.
This color coding is summarized by assigning values of 100 for green (or bright green), 10 for yellow (or orange/tan) and 1 for red (the “hidden values”). The “rep” score adds these hidden values for all-state and U18, “raw” adds hidden values for the 5 raw scoring stats, and the “SoS” adds hidden values for the 6 SoS adjusted scoring stats. “Total” adds those three scores together. This is not intended to be a “score,” though - it’s just a way to numerically summarize the heat map. For simplicity, lots of green means a season that compares favorably to past Ms. Hockey winners’ junior years. Lots of reds means a season that falls well below.
A few interesting takeaways:
No Ms. Hockey winner (from the last 11 years) has failed to be named all-state their junior year. If that’s a requirement, Morrison, Brown, Retrum, Higuchi, O’Hara, Lindsay, Broz and others would be OUT.
No Ms. Hockey winner at forward has scored less than 1 goal per game as a junior - if that holds true, Goettl, Sadura and many others would be OUT.
The standard for a D winning has been very high in terms of offensive output, and none of the current crop are really close to the standard set by Jungels, Wethington and Baldwin.
There are a number of stats highlighted in bright green - better than any previous Ms. Hockey winner. These are worth a comment.
- VanBatavia’s (explained by an unusually weak SoS)
- Assists / game by some forwards on strong teams:
--- Brown, O’Hara and Lindsay coupled their high assists with modest goal totals - likely reflecting being involved in scoring, but at an overall point per game total that is not quite as exceptional.
--- Hendrickson played on a team that played a weaker schedule and on a line with an exceptional goal scorer.
- Wendorf’s goal/game vs top 20 is based on 1 goal in 2 games - a tiny sample.
- Finally, Boerger’s 2 pts/game vs top 20 teams was just exceptional relative to the Ms. Hockey field.
One other note - All of the past Ms. Hockey winners but Heise and Cameranesi played top 8 schedules. My takeaway - it takes an exceptional player to win the award and not play one of the toughest schedules in the state. That would seem to suggest the Warroad and Gentry kids might be facing an uphill battle, unless they have point totals next year way past kids that play top 10 schedules.
The four forward seasons that are meaningfully differentiated from the rest in this analysis (think lots of greens) are Boerger, Johnson, Sajevic and Morrison (other than the last not being named all-state). Retrum and Hendrickson also aren’t far behind that group, with Retrum playing a top 10 schedule.
This is a lot to digest - I realize I’m in the small minority in having an interest in exploring and discussing at this depth. But I’d be curious to hear any reactions.