Class A Guy, you made a few of these comments in this thread about being excited to see new blood and I mostly saw it in the AA field. There was the comment about the same old moorhead vs roseau section final and a lot about the lake conference, and people backed you up in agreement, so I ws curious how bad it really is in AA or if you have a little class A bias showing.ClassAGuy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:16 pmOverall I think people have grown tired of the Lake Conference teams with their Mega Youth Organizations dominating the AA field. Count me in if Benilde can beat Edina not a huge private fan but it would be awesome not to see EP, Wayzata, Edina, Tonka just for a change of pace.Brodziak Fan Club wrote: ↑Sat Feb 26, 2022 10:00 pm Surprised I haven't seen a post about Edina-Wayzata yet. A phenomenal high school hockey game. Tight-checking, but plenty of scoring chances. Physical, but not dirty. Outstanding goaltending. There were many embraces between Hornets and Trojans after the game. A ton of respect shown between two well-coached teams.
Prior Lake and Chaksa and Chan Demographics wise appear to be taking over 2AA Tonka wont be going away but EP is on the downslide will be a Jefferson in another decade. Great to see new Blood
Maybe from your perspective is it less class AA as a whole and more the lake conference, which is valid and I don't mean to single you out. This is all in good fun, but I have seen this comment before so I just wanted to break it down.
Before I start though, regarding the lake conference, there was a comment after Prior Lake and Chaska won about basically being glad anyone besides EP and Tonka. Just wanted to point out that Tonka has only gone to state twice going back to 2010, once in 2018 and once in 2010. Compare that with Edina's 8 trips, EP's 8 trips and Wayzata's 4. Im glad Chaska and PL will have a shot at their first trip, but I would not have minded Tonka because I feel like they don't go much. Thats less than schools like Eagan and Centennial and tied with Stillwater and Bemidji in that same time frame.
The last thing on the Lake Conference, I am an Edina guy and hope they beat Benilde but if they don't it looks like this will be the first year since 2005 that no Lake Conference team will be at state, which would be kind of cool.
Anyway, I broke down by section the amount of times each team has gone to state going back to 2010 for AA and A to see if the same old teams are going or how it breaks down. In doing that however, I noticed there were a few big changes that impacted how this data is displayed. One of them is in the 2016 year they shook up sections 2AA and 6AA a bunch. Basically before 2016 Edina was in 2AA and kind of had a free pass, there were obviously some really good Burnsville teams and a Jefferson team that was really good one year, but they both struggled with Edina. Compared to 6AA which was pretty even between Wayzata, EP, Tonka, and Benilde. But after the shift, Edina moves to 6AA with Wayzata and Benilde where that has been an even section while 2AA got Ep and Tonka but EP has taken the place of Edina and dominated that section.
The other big changes were after the 2013 season when Hermantown switched from 5A to 7A (I had forgotten they were in that section and looking back on it is pretty wild that they were) and then the biggest change was St. Thomas moving up too AA. Because of that change I provided the data going back to 2010 but then I recalculated going back to just 2014 as well. Due to the big changes starting in the 2014 season, that is probably the data that feels more usable to me, but both are there for you to use.
So the breakdown is as follows:
Section 1A:
Number of teams sent to state since 2010: 7 (Rochester Lourdes 4 times, Mankato East 2, New Prague 2, Northfield 1, Mankato West 1, Minnesota River 1, Dodge County 1)
Number of teams sent to state since 2014: 6 (Mankato East 2, New Prague 2, Northfield 1, Mankato West 1, Minnesota River 1, Dodge County 1)
This section by coincidence I am assuming looks a lot different from 2014 on given that Lourdes went to state each year from 2010 to 2013 and has not been back since. It is one of the most diverse sections sending 6 different teams since 2014, but they have not done very well once they are at state, which might be a theme to look for.
This years section final will be New Prague vs Albert Lea. New Prague seems to be the favorite, but I am not a class A mind. If they go, they will take over as first since 2014 and 2nd since 2010 with their last visit since 2015. Albert Lea would be fun to see since I don't know when they last went. But either team seems like they will struggle in the first round this year.
Section 2A:
Number of teams sent to state since 2010: 3 (Breck 6, Delano 4, Orono 2)
Teams sent since 2014: 3 (Delano 4, Breck 2, Orono 2)
This section was obviously dominated by Breck until about 2016. Breck went to state from 2010-2016 6 times with only Orono going once in that stretch. Not sure what year Breck stopped prioritizing hockey, I thought it was more recent than 2017, but regardless, the last 5 years have been dominated by Delano where they have gone 4 of the last 5 years only being replaced by Orono once. This section is a bit repetitive to me given that it was dominated by one team for the early half and now dominated by another more recently.
This year's section final is Minneapolis vs. Delano. Would obviously be awesome to see Minneapolis given what has gone on there with hockey. They would be competitive too. They beat Delano this year I remember, but Delano seems to be the favorite going into this one.
Section 3A:
Teams sent to state since 2010: 5 (New Ulm 5, LDC 3, Luvurne 2, Hutch 1, Marshall 1)
Teams sent since 2014: 4 (LDC 3, New Ulm 2, Luverne 2, Hutch 1)
This section saw New Ulm go 3 years in a row from 2010 to 2012, but since no team has gone two years in a row. That makes this section one of the more unique and diverse. I was surprised that Luverne only went twice when they had their pretty good teams with Nelson and the other guy whose name I am forgetting.
This years final will be Mankato East vs New Ulm. So there was obviously a bit of a shake up in the teams in this section as it seems to represent more of southwest Minnesota with Hutchinson and LDC taken out of the section. Mankato East last went in 2020 in section 1 and New Ulm went in 2019.
Section 4A:
Teams to state since 2010: 5 (Mahtomedi 6, St. Thomas Academy 3, Totino-Grace 1, St. Paul Academy 1, Gentry 1)
Teams to state since 2014: 4 (Mahtomedi 5, Totino Grace 1, St. Paul Academy 1, Gentry 1)
Class A was dominated by St. Thomas and so was this section. It is obviously good that St. Thomas is now in AA, but Totino and Gentry are also both now in AA. It makes what is maybe a middle of the pack section with how unpredictable it could be to maybe the 2nd worst? Since 2014 it has been Mahtomedi's section, but they have been tested im sure. But without STA, Totino and Gentry, will they be tested going forward?
I am not sure on the demographics of Mahtomedi in regards if they are growing or shrinking, I know they are the biggest single A school so maybe they are forced up to AA at some point, but if they stay in A then this section seems pretty predictable going forward unless something changes.
We are in the semi-final right now and seems like Mahtomedi is the big favorite, but will need to beat Two Rivers (formerly Henry Sibley) in the semi's and then Chisago or Simley. Chisago went in 2014 in section 5A and the others I don't have info on going back to 2010. Would be fun to see another team but if a team besides Mahtomedi goes, might be a tough first round.
Section 5A:
Teams sent to state since 2010: 7 (Hermantown 4, Monticello 3, Chisago Lakes 1, Spring Lake Park 1, Princeton 1, North Branch 1, Northern Lakes 1)
Teams sent to state since 2014: 6 (Monticello 3, Chisago Lakes 1, Spring Lake Park 1, Princeton 1, North Branch 1, Northern Lakes 1)
The fact that Hermatown has the most trips since 2010 in this section is kind of funny. Spoiler alert, but Hermantown will be the only team to have the most trips to state in two different sections. Since Hermantown has left this section has been pretty open with Monticello/MAML going most often. This section has also seen a bit of a shake up with former 6A teams joining it.
This years final is St. Cloud Catherdral vs Monticello. Both teams last went to state in 2020 and based on some posts, sounds like Cathedral will win this game and that they "Will dominate this section for years to come" which is too bad because they have dominated 6A pretty recently and might turn this diverse section into another one where the same team goes each year.
Section 6A:
Teams sent since 2010: 4 (St. Cloud Cathedral 5, Alexandria 3, St. Cloud Apollo 2, Little Falls 2)
Teams Sent since 2014: 4 (St. Cloud Cathedral 5, Alexandria 1, St. Cloud Apollo 1, Little Falls 1)
Cathedral has been the best team in this section since 2014 but is now in 5A, Little Falls also in 5A and Apollo no longer a program, it should open up for some new teams. Alexandria last went to state in 2018 and had two more visits in 2010 and 2011. This section final will be Fergus Falls vs Alexandria and it would be fun to see a new team like Fergus. I am not sure what happens with this section over time, seems like Northern Lakes has some good Bantam and Pee Wee teams coming.
Section 7A:
Teams sent since 2010: 5 (Hermantown 7, Duluth Marshall 2, Hibbing 1, Virginia 1, Greenway 1)
Teams sent since 2014: 2 (Hermantown 7, Greenway 1)
This section is the only one since 2014 to only have two teams go to state. In regards to having the same team each year, it is the worst in either class. Looking at state results from 2010-2013 Hermantown played the section 7a winner 3 of the 4 years and beat them every year and the one year they didn't they probably were the better team. Im guessing if Hermantown was in this section back to 2010 they would have gone to state 10 times. I don't want to turn this into a Hermantown should be in AA, but they are clearly better than everyone else in this section and it is too bad. We have missed out on a good couple Denfield and Hibbing teams and hopefully that's not the case much longer.
Section 8A:
Teams sent to state since 2010: 3 (EGF 6, TRF 4, Warroad 2)
Teams sent to state since 2014: 3 (EGF 5, TRF 2, Warroad 1)
I was pretty surprised to see that Warroad has not done very well in this section of late. I know they were upset a few times and EGF had a couple real good groups of players but I guess I never realized that they were struggling the most of these 3.
This years final will be Warroad and TRF where Warroad is the favorite. Would be nice to see Warroad so they can compete with Hermantown but this section is the same 3 every year and I don't think that will change much.
Section 1AA:
Teams sent to state since 2010: 3 (Lakeville North 6, Lakeville South 5, Farmington 1)
Teams sent to state since 2014: 3 (Lakeville South 4, Lakeville North 3, Farmington 1)
This section is pretty bad, you hope another team with some talent finds its way into this section. Too bad all those years Burnsville was good they weren't in here playing the Lakevilles. I hope Rochester produces some good hockey soon, but I believe demographics say otherwise, but who knows.
The other part about this section that kind of stinks is something I heard Karl say on the podcast, neither of these teams are good at the same time. From 2010 to 2015 North went 5 of the 6 Years, Farmington went in 2016 and then south has gone 4 of the last 5 and will likely Make is 5 of the last 6 this year.
Section 2AA:
Teams sent to state since 2010: 3 (Edina 6, EP 5, Minnetonka 1)
Teams sent to state since 2014: 3 (EP 5, Edina 2, Minnetonka 1)
This section was discussed a bit earlier but it was dominated by Edina until they realigned the section for the 2016 year. After they realigned it I think most people thought it would balance out a stacked 6AA and a weaker 2AA but EP has dominated much like Edina had. EP obviously had some special player come through but I think going forward this section should even out. Tonka, Chaska and Chanhassen all have demographics on their side. Holy Family probably profits from that area becoming good, Shakopee is suppose to be rising and EP will probably be falling. Not so sure about Prior Lake, I don't feel like I have heard about their youth success lately like I have Chaska/Chan so perhaps I root for them this year over Chaska.
But regardless we will have a first time team in this section going to state and a team not named EP since 2018.
Section 3AA:
Teams to state since 2010: 5 (St. Thomas Academy 6, Eagan 3, Eastview 1, Burnsville 1, Apple Valley 1)
Teams to state since 2014: 3 (St. Thomas Academy 6, Eagan 1, Burnsville 1)
This section benefits greatly from Cretin moving into it. The fact that they were in 2AA or 6AA was a joke. Its also too bad Burnsville was not in this section when they were having their last good couple years. Took some really good teams out of state by not having them in this section.
Eagan had some good teams in the early 2010's but looking at YHH they are not in their rankings. I feel like they should be better at hockey, but this section does not look very diverse going forward. Seems like St. Thomas will be the best team in the coming years and hopefully Cretin can be a constant challenge for them.
But this year we will have a new team with Cretin's first trip since 2007 I think, or Eastview who last came out of this section in 2013.
Section 4AA:
Teams to state since 2010: 3 (Hill-Murray 8, Stillwater 2, White Bear Lake 2
Teams to state since 2014: 3 (Hill Murray 5, Stillwater 2, White Bear Lake 1)
This section I think Hill just has a strangle hold on. They are so good each year that all the public school kids from this area just go play at Hill it seems. Stillwater is getting better and Woodbury has good youth teams, but where will those kids end up? Gentry joining the section might be interesting, but if Hill keeps getting top kids, I have a hard time seeing them not winning this section over 50% of the time.
Section 5AA:
Teams to state since 2010: 4 (Blaine 4, Maple Grove 4, Centennial 3, Anoka 1)
Teams to state since 2014: 4 (Maple Grove 3, Blaine 2, Centennial 2, Anoka 1)
This is probably the most diverse section in AA. Maple Grove went to state back to back the last two years, Centennial did it in 2013 and 2014, Blaine did it in 2010 and 2011, but we have no 3 peat champs so we will have to see if Maple Grove can do it this year or if we will have a new team in rogers join state. This section has a lot of team rotation between who is good, with Blaine now in 7AA but Maple Grove, Rogers and Champlin park having good youth teams, plus Totino able to pick up some talent from these schools, this could be a deep section going forward. The question has always been how do they do at state? Maple Grove has had some real good teams of late but 5AA has struggled at state recently.
Section 6AA:
Teams to state since 2010: 6 (Wayzata 4, EP 3, Edina 2, Blake 1, Minnetonka 1, Benilde 1)
Teams to state since 2014: 4 (Wayzata 3, EP, 2 Edina 2, Blake 1)
This section is super deep and the talent has changed from year to year. Blake has a good group come through, Edina won state and then had some down years, Benilde had the undefeated regular season and then lost in sections, Holy Angles seems to be getting better too.
Edina vs Benilde for the championship this year could be Edina's first appearance since 2019 and Benilde's first since 2012 when they won it all.
Section 7AA:
Teams to state since 2010: 3 (Duluth East 8, Andover 2, Grand Rapids 2)
Teams to state since 2014: 3 (Duluth East 4, Andover 2, Grand Rapids 2)
This section has been pretty thin lately with the drop off of Cloquet, Duluth Marshall and now even East. They add Blaine but they are not what they once were. Andover's bantam team looks good but their peewee is average, East's youth teams don't seem amazing, Grand Rapids' teams lose a lot after this year and I am not sure they have the youth. Even Hermantown's youth teams don't seem that great, but if Hermantown was scared of going to state against GR and East you would think they could move to AA given the current climate.
Anyway, this section seems pretty thin going forward and I hope Grand Rapids makes it this year.
Section 8AA:
Teams to state since 2010: 4 (Moorhead 7, Bemidji 2, Roseau 2, STMA 1)
Teams to state since 2014: 4 (Moorhead 4, Bemidji 2, Roseau 1, STMA 1)
Moorhead is the most consistent team in this section each year and given their youth rankings, will probably be the team to beat for a bit. Sounds like this was Roseau's last shot for awhile and that is a shame, would her love to seen them this year with a decent shot to make some noise. Bemidji does have some nice youth teams it looks like which will be exciting. STMA also does but being they are basically a metro team, that's not so exciting.
This year we will have Moorhead vs Elk River, and with all those good teams Elk River had I am still surprised they have not gone to state since 2005. I am not sure they are good enough this year though that I would want to see them over moorhead this year, but it would be cool to see them back.
In my own opinion, AA is probably a bit worse in the sense of the same teams are going to state, but it is closer than one might think. And once they are at state I think single A is noticeable worse in what teams are competitive at state. Any team could win state in AA from any section, but I don't think that is the case in A so its nice to see the new teams that A can offer but if they are only there for one running time game, is it that great?
In single A sections 1, 3 and 5 are pretty diverse right now, but Northfield has good youth that could lock down 1 and St. Cloud Cathedral might lock down 5 based on people's comments.
In Single A sections 4 and 7 are not competitive right now and unless something changes with those big programs those will be ugly.
In AA sections 1 and 3 are two team sections right now and probably going forward.
Section 7 is a bit more diverse but in each given year with down teams it feels like only 2 teams are that competitive since east has been down. This section is trending th wrong way.
Section 4 is similar to 7 in that only one team each year seems like a real challenge to Hill, its rare that White Bear and Stillwater are really good at the same time, and this year both are average. With Gentry joining and some decent youth teams, this section could get better in the future.
Section 8 I think will hold steady in that it's moorhead's section but a few teams will get better and push on them.
Section 2 has been competitive but one team has dominated, but I think that will change going forward.
Sections 5 and 6 have been competitive of late and should be competitive going forward.
I will let you guys come up with your own thoughts, but I don't think AA is much worse off than single A in this regard.