Discussion of Minnesota Girls High School Hockey
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LSQRANK
Posts: 415 Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm
Post
by LSQRANK » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:14 am
Code: Select all
Partial Results of MN HS Girls Play-Offs
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95% MOE = ~ 1.5 goals
As of Saturday Feb 12, 2022 ... 63 play-off games played
4 upset games where lower seed beat higher seed with score differential outside the 95% C.I. (rate = 1 in 16)
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Owatonna @ Farmington predicted FARM win by 1 to 3 goals OWT 3 - 2 FARM (-2) ##
AppleValley @ Eastview predicted ESTV win by -1 to 2 goals APV 3 - 0 ESTV (-2) ##
ChamplinPark/CR @ NorthWrightCty predicted NWC win by 1 to 3 goals CPCR 1 - 0 NWC (-2) ##
Breck @ MoundWestonka predicted MWT win by 3 to 5 goals BRK 3 - 2 MWT (-4) ##
6 games where lower seed beat higher seed but score differential was within the 95% C.I. (rate = 1 in 10.5)
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Owatonna @ Northfield predicted NFLD win by -1 to 2 goals OWT 1 - 0 NFL (0)
Rosemount @ Cretin-DerhamHall predicted CDH win by -2 to 1 goals RSM 6 - 4 CDH (0)
ElkRiver @ GrandRapids-Greenway predicted GRG win by -2 to 1 goals ELK 3 - 1 GRG (0)
Waconia @ Hutchinson predicted HUT win by -1 to 2 goals WAC 4 - 3 HUT (0)
Fairmont @ Windom predicted WND win by -1 to 2 goals FMT 2 - 1 WND (0)
Hibbing @ MooseLakeArea *HIB or MLA win by -2 to 1 goals HIB 4 - 2 MLA (0)
53 games where the higher seed beat the lower seed (rate = 84% or [5 out of 6])
Game score Differential # of Games
-------------------------- | ------------
Less than C.I. by (-5) | 0
Less than C.I. by (-4) | 2 3%
Less than C.I. by (-3) | 2 3%
Less than C.I. by (-2) | 9 14%
Less than C.I. by (-1) | 9 14%
INSIDE C.I. ( 0) | 28 44%
Greater than C.I. by (+1) | 6 9.5%
Greater than C.I. by (+2) | 3 5%
Greater than C.I. by (+3) | 3 5%
Greater than C.I. by (+4) | 0
Greater than C.I. by (+5) | 1 1.5%
It would appear empirically that the calculated MOE [ +/- 1.5] is too small
Out of 63 games, one might expect to have 1 in 20 games
to have a game score differential outside the 95% C.I.
therefore a more realistic MOE of +/- 3.5
would seem to be a more appropriate value @ the 95% confidence level
LSQRANK
Posts: 415 Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm
Post
by LSQRANK » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:15 am
More details ...
Code: Select all
1AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score DIF
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1 Lakeville South RochesterCentury @ LakevilleSouth LVS win by 11 to 13 goals ROC 0 - 11 LVS ( 0)
2 Northfield RochesterMayo @ Northfield NFLD win by 6 to 8 goals MAYO 0 - 10 NFLD (+2)
3 Farmington Owatonna @ Farmington FARM win by 1 to 3 goals OWT 3 - 2 FARM (-2) ##
4 Lakeville North DodgeCounty @ LakevilleNorth *LVN or DC win by 1 goal in OT DC 3 - 6 LVN (+2)
5 Dodge County
6 Owatonna 2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
7 Rochester Mayo ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 Rochester Century LakevilleNorth @ LakevilleSouth LVS win by 2 to 4 goals LVN 4 - 6 LVS (0)
Owatonna @ Northfield NFLD win by -1 to 2 goals OWT 1 - 0 NFL (0)
3rd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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Owatonna @ LakevilleSouth
2AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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1 Minnetonka NewPrague @ Minnetonka MNTK win by 7 to 9 goals NPG 1 - 9 MTK ( 0)
2 Holy Family PriorLake @ HolyFamily HF win by 5 to 7 goals PLK 0 - 3 HLF (-2)
3 Shakopee BloomingtonJefferson @ Shakopee SKP win by 1 to 3 goals BLM 1 - 5 SHK (+1)
4 Eden Prairie Chaska/Chanhassen @ EdenPrairie EP or CC win by 1 goal in OT CCH 1 - 2 EP ( 0)
5 Chaska/Chanhassen
6 Jefferson 2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
7 Prior Lake ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 New Prague EdenPrairie @ Minnetonka MNTK win by 4 to 6 goals
Shakopee @ HolyFamily HF win by 3 to 5 goals
3AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Burnsville ParkofCottageGrove @ Burnsville BSV win by 4 to 6 goals PCG 0 - 6 BNV ( 0)
2 Cretin-Derham Hall Hastings @ Cretin-DerhamHall CDH win by 3 to 5 goals HAS 1 - 7 CDH (+1)
3 Rosemount Eagan @ Rosemount RSMT win by 2 to 4 goals EAG 2 - 4 RMT ( 0)
4 Eastview AppleValley @ *Eastview ESTV win by -1 to 2 goals APV 3 - 0 ESTV (-2) ##
5 Apple Valley *95% CI = [ -0.3 to +2.7 ]
6 Eagan
7 Hastings
8 Park Cottage Grove
2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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AppleValley @ Burnsville BSV win by 2 to 4 goals APV 1 - 5 BSV ( 0)
Rosemount @ Cretin-DerhamHall CDH win by -2 to 1 goals RSM 6 - 4 CDH ( 0)
3rd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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Rosemount @ Burnsville
4AA Play-In round: WhiteBearLake wins by 2 to 3 goals over Mahtomedi MAHT 3 - 7 WBLK (+1)
4AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Gentry Academy WhiteBearLake @ GentryAcademy GA win by 6 to 8 goals WBL 0 - 9 GA (+1)
2 Stillwater NorthSt.Paul/Tartan @ Stillwater STW win by 4 to 6 goals NSP 0 - 5 STW ( 0)
3 Hill-Murray Woodbury @ Hill-Murray HM win by 3 to 6 goals WDB 1 - 7 HM ( 0)
4 Roseville EastRidge @ *Roseville RSV win by 1 to 2 goals in reg ESR 1 - 3 RSV ( 0)
5 East Ridge or ESR win by 1 goal in OT
6 Woodbury *edge to Roseville
7 North/Tartan *95% CI [ -0.5 to +2.5 ]
8 White Bear Lake
9 Mahtomedi 2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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5AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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1 MapleGrove Irondale/St.Anthony @ MapleGrove MG win by 8 to 10 goals IDSA 0 - 6 MG (-2)
2 Rogers MoundsView @ Rogers ROG win by 2 to 5 goals MSV 0 - 8 ROG (+3)
3 Centennial Osseo/ParkCenter @ Centennial CSP win by 2 to 4 goals OPC 0 - 2 CSP ( 0)
4 NorthWrightCounty ChamplinPark/CR @ NorthWrightCounty NWC win by 1 to 3 goals CPCR 1 - 0 NWC (-2) ##
5 ChamplinPark/CR
6 Osseo/ParkCenter 2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
7 MoundsView -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
8 Irondale/St.Anthony
6AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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1 Edina BYE Edina Edina Bye
2 Wayzata Hopkins/Park @ Wayzata WAY win by 7 to 9 goals HP 0 - 6 WAY (-1)
3 Benilde St Margarets MinnehahaUnited @ Benilde-St.Margaret's BSM win by 5 to 8 goals MU 1 - 6 BSM ( 0)
4 Blake Armstrong/Cooper @ Blake BLAKE win by 4 to 6 goals AC 0 - 5 BLAKE ( 0)
5 Armstrong/Cooper
6 United 2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
7 Hopkins/Park --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7AA Play-In round: NorthernTier wins by 3 to 5 goals PRC 2 - 3 NT (-2)
7AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Andover NorthernTier @ Andover AND win by 11 to 13 goals NTR 0 - 16 AND (+3)
2 Grand Rapids/Greenway Duluth @ GrandRapids-Greenway GRG win by 3 to 5 goals DTH 2 - 4 GRG (-1)
3 Elk River Anoka @ ElkRiver/Zimmerman ERZ win by 2 to 4 goals ANK 1 - 2 EKR (-1)
4 Blaine ForestLake @ Blaine BLAINE win by 1 to 2 goals FLAK 2 - 7 BLN (+3)
5 Forest Lake
6 Anoka
7 Duluth 2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
8 Northern Tier ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
9 Princeton Blaine @ Andover AND win by 4 to 6 goals BLN 1 - 6 AND ( 0)
ElkRiver/Zimmerman @ GrandRapids-Greenway GRG win by -2 to 1 goals ELK 3 - 1 GRG ( 0)
8AA seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Moorhead Bemidji @ Moorhead MOOR wins by 3 to 6 goals BMJ 1 - 7 MOOR ( 0)
2 Alexandria Buffalo @ Alexandria ALEX wins by 2 to 4 goals BUF 0 - 3 ALEX ( 0)
3 Brainerd/LittleFalls Sartell/SaukRapids @ Brainerd BRND wins by 2 to 5 goals SSR 1 - 2 BLF (-1)
4 Roseau St.Cloud @ Roseau *ROS wins by [-1 to 2] goals OT STC 1 - 2 ROS ( 0)
5 St.Cloud
6 Sartell/SaukRapids *ROS & STC tied T 3-3 in their only H2H meeting @ROS
7 Buffalo
8 Bemidji 2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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1A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Albert Lea Winona @ AlbertLea ABL wins by 4 to 7 goals WIN 0 - 6 ABL (0)
2 Austin Waseca @ Austin AUS wins by 3 to 5 goals WSC 1 - 5 AUS (0)
3 Waseca
4 Winona 2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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2A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Mankato East BYE @ MankatoEast MKE BYE
2 Litchfield BYE @ Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato LDC BYE
3 Minnesota River MankatoWest @ MinnesotaRiver MNR wins by 3 to 6 goals MKW 1 - 2 MNR (-2)
4 Hutchinson Waconia @ Hutchinson HUT wins by [-1 to 2] goals WAC 4 - 3 HUT ( 0)
5 Waconia
6 Mankato West
2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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Waconia @ MankatoEast MKE wins by 2 to 5 goals WAC 1 - 5 MKE (0)
MinnesotaRiver @ Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato LDC wins by -1 to 2 goals MR 1 - 2 LDC (0)
3A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 New Ulm BYE @ NewUlm NewUlm BYE
2 Luverne BYE @ Luverne Luverne BYE
3 Marshall Worthington @ Marshall Marshall wins by 4 to 7 goals WTG 2 - 3 MSH (-3)
4 Windom Fairmont @ Windom Windom wins by -1 to 2 goals FMT 2 - 1 WND ( 0)
5 Fairmont
6 Worthington
2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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Fairmont @ NewUlm NU wins by 6 to 9 goals FMT 0 - 5 NU (-1)
Marshall @ Luverne LUV wins by 3 to 6 goals MSH 1 - 2 LUV (-2)
4A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Simley BYE @ Simley SIM BYE
2 South Saint Paul BYE @ SouthStPaul SSP BYE
3 St Paul/Two Rivers RedWing @ TwoRivers/St.Paul TRSP wins by 7 to 10 goals RW 1 - 7 TRSP (-1)
4 Chisago Lakes Visitation @ ChisagoLakes CHL wins by 3 to 6 goals VIS 0 - 7 CHL (+1)
5 Visitation
6 Red Wing
2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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5A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Orono BYE @ Orono ORO BYE
2 Holy Angels PineCityArea @ HolyAngels HA wins by 5 to 8 goals PCA 0 - 4 HA (-1)
3 Mound/Westonka Breck @ MoundWestonka MWT wins by 3 to 5 goals BRK 3 - 2 MWT (-4) ##
4 Minneapolis Delano @ Minneapolis MSP wins by 1 to 3 goals DEL 0 - 1 MSP ( 0)
5 Delano
6 Breck 2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
7 Pine City ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
6A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Fergus Falls BYE @ FergusFalls FF BYE
2 River Lakes BYE @ RiverLakes RL BYE
3 Northern Lakes Morris/BensonArea @ NorthernLakes NL wins by 8 to 11 goals MBA 0 - 4 NLK (-4)
4 Willmar PrairieCentre @ Willmar WIL wins by 8 to 10 goals PC 0 - 8 WIL ( 0)
5 Prairie Centre
6 Morris-Benson 2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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Willmar @ FergusFalls FF wins by 0 to 3 goals
NorthernLakes @ RiverLakes RL wins by 1 to 3 goals
7A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Proctor/Hermantown BYE @ Proctor/Hermantown P/HT BYE
2 Duluth Marshall RockRidge @ DuluthMarshall DM wins by 5 to 8 goals RR 0 - 2 DM (-3)
3 CEC NorthShore @ Cloquet-Esko-Carlton CEC wins by 5 to 7 goals NS 0 - 4 CEC (-1)
4 Moose Lake Hibbing/Chisholm @ MooseLakeArea *HIB or MLA wins by -1 to 2 goals HIB 4 - 2 MLA (-1)
5 Hibbing-Chisholm
6 North Shore *95% MOE ~ 1.5 goals either team may win
7 Eveleth-Gilbert *95% CI ~ [ -1 ... 2 ] Interval includes "0"
2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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Hibbing/Chisholm @ Proctor/Hermantown P/HT wins by 3 to 6 goals HIB 1 - 2 P/HT (-2)
Cloquet-Esko-Carlton @ DuluthMarshall DML wins by -1 to 2 goals CEC 1 - 5 DML (+2)
8A seedings 1st round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
---------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Warroad BYE @ Warroad WARR BYE
2 Crookston BYE @ Crookston CRK BYE
3 EastGrandForks IFalls @ EastGrandForks EGF wins by 10 to 12 goals IFalls 0 - 17 EGF (+5)
4 ThiefRiverFalls DetroitLakes @ ThiefRiverFalls TRF wins by 8 to 10 goals DLK 1 - 12 TRF (+1)
5 DetroitLakes
6 InternationalFalls
2nd round numerical predictions [95% CI] Actual Score
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Eagles93
Posts: 483 Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2004 5:04 pm
Post
by Eagles93 » Sun Feb 13, 2022 12:58 am
Northfield beat Owatonna 4-1