Computer Ratings new constraint?

[LSQRANK]

Earlier this week I used Irondale = spring lake park as the constraint to connect the Suburban East conference (SEC) into the main inter-state network (ND-MN-WI) . I'm thinking that maybe I ought to replace that constraint with Irondale = Anoka.

Based on TUESDAY's rating profile, that would possibly boost the entire SEC up almost 2 full points and put CDH 3rd in the state, just nudging above Gentry Academy (GA) by a tenth of a point or two. I have not seen GA play a game yet, but have seen almost all of CDH's home games. Is this a fair comparison? My neighbor's boy (4 houses down the street) played on GA's USA16U_AAA team last year, and this year is playing for their MSHSL HS team. So I know GA is pretty darn good, I just haven't seen them in person to compare them to CDH. any thoughts on the matter? thanks - Doc

[karl(east)]

I tend to be a skeptic of the SEC. I've only caught one Cretin game, but would not call them a top 5 team in the state based on what I saw, and that take would also generally be consistent with the year-over-year strength of that conference and its results in the end. I think we a better sense of where the SEC stacks up relative to everything else than we do with Gentry, who has yet to play a very good opponent and probably remains a bit of a mystery even to people who have watched them. I would avoid re-working a system based on perceptions of Gentry at this point; #3 seems a bit high but we just don't know where they are yet.

[O-townClown]

Cretin & Gentry are sub-.500 if they played the 4 strong Lake teams over and over.

[LSQRANK]

Hhhmmm. Bear with me here because I need your input. Looking from a pure connectivity aspect, Gentry Academy is already connected into the greater network, likewise Andover, TG, Grand Rapids, etc. So GA's rating number falls where it falls regardless of their win-loss record because Least-squares uses the game score differential, i.e. how many points (goals) did one beat an opponent by as its observation equation. That is why a team that loses half their games against the best competition by only a few goals could be rated higher than an undefeated team that wins all its games by alot against lesser competition. In GA's case, they have won by a lot against enough critical teams in the network to place them (geometrically) where they are at. What I am struggling with is how strong is the SEC (mini-network) relative to known benchmarks? Until a team in the SEC plays another outside of their conference (which is not going to happen until section playoffs, or unless a team reschedules a canceled game with, like Eastview, did with Tartan), I have to introduce a "Faked" score between a team from the SEC and another in the greater network. Generally, I like to choose two last-place teams in two conferences and make the assumption that the teams are similar in ability. Then the ratings of the upper teams in the SEC is all relative to where their mini-network got tied into the greater overall network. This gets back to my search for a comparable team to Irondale, which then subsequently places teams like CDH and Stillwater somewhere above Irondale. After computing a rating profile, one then needs to look at where does CDH and Stillwater fall relative to their nearest neighbors on the list, which I then ask the question whether CDH and GA are similar type teams. Another way of looking at this is to ask the question if CDH and GA were to play each other, what would be the expected score differential? A tie, one goal either way or something else?

[Puck8]

Cretin & Gentry are sub-.500 if they played the 4 strong Lake teams over and over.

I can’t speak to Cretin’s chance, but I’ll take the over against your prediction with Gentry. Team is deep, F’s are fast and highly skilled, they are physical and the D are stingy but able to jump into the offense. Goalie is very strong as well. The top 2 Lake teams are tough and the best Gentry could hope for is to split, maybe that’s a stretch. But the next 2 - I think it’s a stretch the other way to think they would beat Gentry 50/50 or more. Just my 2 cents. Blake game tomorrow will paint more of the picture.

[Puck8]

I think we a better sense of where the SEC stacks up relative to everything else than we do with Gentry, who has yet to play a very good opponent and probably remains a bit of a mystery even to people who have watched them. I would avoid re-working a system based on perceptions of Gentry at this point; #3 seems a bit high but we just don't know where they are yet.

Preface: The rankings mean little to me at this point - too many dynamics this year. But I don’t completely agree that Gentry hasn’t played any good teams. Not comparing the schedule to some of the others, but Gentry has destroyed Little Falls, Breck (Mahto beat 4-0 with an ENG), Holy Angels and Tartan (HM beat 2-1, STA beat 7-5). The others may not be top shelf teams, but there’s been no doubt in the outcomes. Not sure why it’s a mystery. Look at the roster and development of the team - 2 forwards with 100+ career points (Furuseth and Hall), 2 shutdown D-men (Norlin and Grigus) who have contributed big offensively, a goalie (Timmons) that has been dominating for 2 seasons, several other skilled and physical players (led by Milles and Skinner) returned plus the addition of pieces from the U16 team. Team could stumble, but this is no surprise after 2 years+ of building the program. Schedule has been a struggle, but they’re doing what good teams do - destroy mediocre teams and make good teams look mediocre. Blake game will be telling.

And yes, I have a rooting interest with the Stars, but facts are facts.

[O-townClown]

The top 2 Lake teams are tough and the best Gentry could hope for is to split, maybe that’s a stretch. But the next 2 - I think it’s a stretch the other way to think they would beat Gentry 50/50 or more.

It's too bad they've got this good team and nobody to play. Wayzata, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie & Edina would give them a solid opponent. Instead it's going to be a high point of Blake and we're left to wonder.

[Puck8]

It's too bad they've got this good team and nobody to play. Wayzata, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie & Edina would give them a solid opponent. Instead it's going to be a high point of Blake and we're left to wonder.

That’s one thought and approach. It’s all conjecture, I just don’t think it’s accurate to say they haven’t played anybody and that the team is a mystery. Soft schedule after tomorrow? That’s fairly obvious. But that’s a one-dimensional approach. This forum is full of individuals capable of using data points to assemble assessments of teams in Gentry’s situation. EP would certainly be a challenge to split with and that may be wishful thinking (same could be said for virtually every other team in the top 10), but the others have been inconsistent and show vulnerabilities that don’t stack up well with Gentry’s strengths. Just my opinion but I’m confident Gentry would be over .500 vs those 3. Again, it’s just fun conjecture, but I felt compelled to challenge those couple statements.

[karl(east)]

It's too bad they've got this good team and nobody to play. Wayzata, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie & Edina would give them a solid opponent. Instead it's going to be a high point of Blake and we're left to wonder.

That’s one thought and approach. It’s all conjecture, I just don’t think it’s accurate to say they haven’t played anybody and that the team is a mystery. Soft schedule after tomorrow? That’s fairly obvious. But that’s a one-dimensional approach. This forum is full of individuals capable of using data points to assemble assessments of teams in Gentry’s situation. EP would certainly be a challenge to split with and that may be wishful thinking (same could be said for virtually every other team in the top 10), but the others have been inconsistent and show vulnerabilities that don’t stack up well with Gentry’s strengths. Just my opinion but I’m confident Gentry would be over .500 vs those 3. Again, it’s just fun conjecture, but I felt compelled to challenge those couple statements.

I guess by "very good opponent," I was referring to a team that would be in a two-class top 15 or so. Little Falls and Holy Angels ain't that. I'm not doubting that Gentry could be in a two-class top ten team or even a top five team, but margin of victory against Tartan is not a data point I would use if I were to try to say anything decisive as to whether they are better or worse than Cretin (which was the question that motivated this whole discussion). The computer rankings try, but as a human who does rankings, Gentry's transitive property ties to actual top teams are very thin and make them very difficult to rank versus other top 10-15 teams. That will change somewhat with the Blake game this afternoon.

[Puck8]

It's too bad they've got this good team and nobody to play. Wayzata, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie & Edina would give them a solid opponent. Instead it's going to be a high point of Blake and we're left to wonder.

That’s one thought and approach. It’s all conjecture, I just don’t think it’s accurate to say they haven’t played anybody and that the team is a mystery. Soft schedule after tomorrow? That’s fairly obvious. But that’s a one-dimensional approach. This forum is full of individuals capable of using data points to assemble assessments of teams in Gentry’s situation. EP would certainly be a challenge to split with and that may be wishful thinking (same could be said for virtually every other team in the top 10), but the others have been inconsistent and show vulnerabilities that don’t stack up well with Gentry’s strengths. Just my opinion but I’m confident Gentry would be over .500 vs those 3. Again, it’s just fun conjecture, but I felt compelled to challenge those couple statements.

I guess by "very good opponent," I was referring to a team that would be in a two-class top 15 or so. Little Falls and Holy Angels ain't that. I'm not doubting that Gentry could be in a two-class top ten team or even a top five team, but margin of victory against Tartan is not a data point I would use if I were to try to say anything decisive as to whether they are better or worse than Cretin (which was the question that motivated this whole discussion). The computer rankings try, but as a human who does rankings, Gentry's transitive property ties to actual top teams are very thin and make them very difficult to rank versus other top 10-15 teams. That will change somewhat with the Blake game this afternoon.

Agreed. I do know it was a stronger schedule prior to Covid. And I’m not putting Tartan or some of the others on the same plane. Comparisons of common opponents are unavoidable but bottoms line, you’re right - have to produce when the opportunity is presented.

[LSQRANK]

Watched the STA-Blake game yesterday. Both Blake and STA are top tier teams, excellent Boys HS hockey.
What amazes me is that Gentry Academy pounded Blake 6-1. GA must have solid 4 or 5(depth) D-men and some real fire power at F/C

[Stang5280]

Watched the STA-Blake game yesterday. Both Blake and STA are top tier teams, excellent Boys HS hockey.
What amazes me is that Gentry Academy pounded Blake 6-1. GA must have solid 4 or 5(depth) D-men and some real fire power at F/C

I’d classify the STA game as an outlier performance for Blake. They don’t have much scoring punch this season, but their goalie, Reid, played out of his mind against STA.

Yes, Gentry is that good. Their depth and relentless pace just wear teams down, and they have severa snipers up front. Top 5 team for sure in combined rankings.

[WestMetro]

IMHO

I have seen Gentry twice, as well as at last summers Festival which they won . I haven’t seen Cretin in the season yet this year, but i know the team and top kids pretty well after last year, EL and Bridge season . I would take Gentry 2 of 3, or 4 of 5 in a series . The Blake game , periods 2 and 3 total Gentry domination and Blake had 95% of their kids healthy that game . (Then Blake went on to be competitive with STA. )

Gentry is properly ranked top 2 in A class , and I would say lower top 10 in combined rankings , lower than PageStat or LSQ have them-only because of lack of competition to prove themselves the last couple years

Unfortunately they will not see any tough teams until the section finals , and even after that the state tournament semis and final game

[LSQRANK]

fyi, Mahtomedi took STA to another OT tie game. Both teams were exciting to watch. Mahto is another very, very good team.