AA Rankings for 12/15/19

[karl(east)]

Chaos descended on high school hockey this past week. The top four are easy enough, and #5 has a pretty good case, but beyond that, we have a mess that shows just how much parity we have this season.

1. Eden Prairie (4-0)
-The Eagles continued their methodical winning ways by taking down Stillwater. Things start to ramp up now after their light early schedule, with the tests getting progressively harder through the Edina Holiday Classic. Saturday night in this tournament has often been a challenge for them, even when they’re the superior team. Crazy as it may sound, they don’t have a single team currently in the top eight on their schedule at all this season.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. Elk River, Fri vs. #13 Grand Rapids, Sat vs. #10 Edina

2. Hill-Murray (6-0)
-The Pioneers rolled along against weaker competition. The stakes get considerably higher this week, though, as they collide with their greatest rivals. First comes a shot at revenge against the team that knocked them off a season ago in a game that will likely decide the top seed in 4AA, and after that comes a battle for the conference crown with a fellow private school that has made some headway recently. It’s hard to imagine a bigger week.
This week: Tues vs. #5 White Bear Lake, Sat at St. Thomas Academy

3. Maple Grove (6-0)
-The Crimson scraped past Centennial; I flipped them with Hill since they’ve had a few more close calls than. A meaty top-five battle awaits them this Thursday and will determine the frontrunner in the Northwest Suburban Conference.
This week: Thurs at #4 Andover

4. Andover (4-1)
-The Huskies demolished their two opponents this past week, leaving me to wonder how exactly this team lost to Blake. They now head into one of their more eventful weeks of Northwest Suburban play as they face undefeated Maple Grove and pesky Centennial.
This week: Thurs vs. #3 Maple Grove, Sat vs. Centennial

5. White Bear Lake (5-0-1)
-Like Hill, the Bears had fairly easy pickings heading into their rivalry game, and are the beneficiaries of others’ struggles in these rankings. A win on Tuesday would be a statement that last season’s section final wasn’t just a one-off upset that comes along every once in a while, and that 4AA is the Bears’ to lose. They have the talent to pull it off.
This week: Tues at #2 Hill-Murray, Thurs at Roseville, Sat vs. Park (Cottage Grove)

6. Lakeville South (4-1)
-The Cougars lost to Lakeville North, which is a drawback in the 1AA horse race. On the other hand, they’ve looked pretty good in every other game they’ve played, including a sound win over previously undefeated Rosemount on Saturday. For now, I’ll give them some benefit of the doubt amid the absolute mess that is this portion of the rankings.
This week: Thurs vs. Holy Family, Sat at Burnsville

7. Rosemount (6-1)
-The Irish fell to Lakeville South, struggling to turn shots into goals and raising some doubts about their status as an elite team. I still like this team’s makeup, but they need to find more consistent production, and for that matter, they’re also bleeding a few too many goals for a team with a defense of this caliber. They’ll aim to get back to their winning ways this week before what should be a very telling holiday tournament.
This week: Tues at Chaska, Thurs at Farmington

8. Blaine (4-2)
-A loss to Duluth East put a damper on the Bengals’ week, but there’s enough ranking chaos to keep it from costing them much. They’re big and dangerous, but have struggled to hit the net in their two losses and couldn’t quite respond when knocked off their game. They’ll look to get back on track against Champlin Park this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Champlin Park

9. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (4-2-1)
-The Red Knights aren’t living up to their high preseason billing so far. While no one result has been horrid, their offensive output hasn’t quite been on the level I expected, which is out of character for a Benilde team. The Edina win and the Hermantown tie are keeping them afloat here some. With all of that said, two section games this week will be very telling: can they still be the favorite we expected them to be at the start, or is 6AA a true free-for-all?
This week: Thurs at #14 Wayzata, Sat vs. Cretin-Derham Hall

10. Edina (2-3-1)
-The Hornets hold steady after a bye week. Their Holiday Classic opener against Rapids should be good fun, and their pride will be on the line in that finale with Eden Prairie.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #13 Grand Rapids, Fri vs. Elk River, Sat vs. #1 Eden Prairie

11. Moorhead (5-2)
-The Spuds had a mixed week as they fell to Roseau in a key 8AA matchup but bounced back with a solid win over Minnetonka. The Roseau loss leaves the top seed in the section in question, but if they can avoid section losses like Roseau’s at the hands of Buffalo, they can still claim it with a win in the rematch. They have another significant section game up this week.
This week: Tues at St. Michael-Albertville, Thurs vs. Greenway

12. Lakeville North (5-0-1)
-The Panthers grabbed some attention with a win over mildly favored South in the first of the annual Battles of Lakeville, but they followed it up with…a tie against Shakopee. That tie and the shot total in the South game has me very leery about putting them any higher, despite that zero in the loss column. Two mid-tier teams this week will provide some perspective.
This week: Thurs vs. Burnsville, Sat at Duluth East

13. Grand Rapids (3-2)
-The Thunderhawks took the week off before they head to Edina this week. The opener against the Hornets gives them a chance to make a statement, and they follow that up with a clash with #1. Just how serious a statewide contender is this team?
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #10 Edina, Fri vs. #1 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. Elk River

14. Wayzata (4-3)
-Four straight wins, including a quality one over Blaine this past week, have the Trojans edging in the right direction. A big section game with Benilde looms.
This week: Thurs vs. #9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat vs. St. Cloud

15. Blake (5-3)
-A loss to Wayzata raised more doubts about the Bears, who later rebounded to beat rival Breck. They have a bunch of legitimately decent wins but have yet to inspire the confidence that they belong among the top teams. Just one game this week, and it should be a win.
This week: Fri vs. St. Louis Park

The Next Ten

Stillwater (5-1)
-The Ponies’ lone loss was a respectable showing against the top-ranked team in the state, and while none of their wins are exceptional, they’ve taken care of business, and therefore continue to hold steady here. They should continue to collect wins against Park and Mounds View this week.

Roseau (5-3)
-Add the Rams to the list of thoroughly head-scratching teams. They fought back from a deficit to stun section favorite Moorhead, but followed that up with a loss to previously struggling Buffalo and barely scraped their way past Rogers. They seem capable of winning or losing against anyone in their section. Another 8AA opponent, Bemidji, is their lone game this week.

Prior Lake (5-2)
-The Lakers are building some momentum and have four wins of decent quality against STMA, Minnetonka, Burnsville, and Eagan; this young team could have a chance to climb into pretty good position in 2AA. Eastview is their only game this week.

Hastings (4-1)
-Continue to handle the teams they should handle. On paper this week should be more of the same.

Centennial (3-2)
-Give the Cougars some credit for taking Maple Grove to overtime. Both of their losses have been very tight, though they have yet to collect a quality win. The week ahead, with a visit to Duluth East and a game with Andover, could make or break their top 25 standing.

St. Thomas Academy (4-3)
-The Cadets are all over the place following a win over Benilde but a loss to Holy Family. The potential is there, but the growing pains are real. We’ll see if they can muster anything against a strong-looking Hill team.

Cretin-Derham Hall (4-2)
-The Raiders have rattled off four straight in conference play after a tough start. They should get a fifth this week before Benilde offers them their next major test.

Cloquet (4-1-1)
-An overtime win over Duluth East is a good sign for the Jacks, who will ride Christian Galatz as far as he can take them. A thorny Eastview team will test them in a week that also includes a trip to Hibbing.

Chaska (3-3-1)
-Suffered a narrow loss to Orono, which doesn’t help their cause here but isn’t a terrible loss, either. A tough week looms ahead, as they face Rosemount and play a major section game against Minnetonka.

Duluth East (2-4)
-The record is ugly, but all the losses are to good teams and the Blaine win is better than anything anyone else in this area has. We’ll learn a lot about this team in games with Centennial and Lakeville North this coming week.

A First Look at Sections

1AA
12 Lakeville North
6 Lakeville South
19 Hastings
Farmington
-Depth-wise, this section is looking as strong as it’s been since I’ve been doing this. North took early command of the race for the top seed with a win over South, while South made a statement on behalf of the section with the Rosemount win. Hastings’ competitive game with Mahtomedi suggests the Raiders aren’t too far behind, though it’s hard to make a definitive comparison at this point. Farmington, believe it or not, was my first team off the rankings this week, as the Tigers have looked plenty competitive in the South Suburban. Rochester Century is also rolling along pretty nicely, though they have a loss to Gentry Academy that keeps them from the land of the ranked.

2AA
1 Eden Prairie
18 Prior Lake
24 Chaska
Minnetonka
-Minnetonka’s early struggles have this one looking like a one-team race. Chaska’s game with Minnetonka will put someone on track for a decent seed this week, though right now, I’d say Prior Lake is looking the team putting the pressure on for the 2-seed at the moment. I figure the Skippers have to be better than this and will show that over time, but they need more than a single win over a Class A team to get into the land of the ranked. Holy Family hovers in the picture somewhere also.

3AA
7 Rosemount
21 St. Thomas Academy
Burnsville
Eagan
-No one is really setting the world on fire here right now. Rosemount has the most talent, but isn’t quite firing on all cylinders, while St. Thomas looks capable of winning the section or bowing out in the section semis depending on the night. Burnsville has been the best of the rest, but while there are a lot of okay teams in that next tier, no one is making a strong case quite yet.

4AA
2 Hill-Murray
5 White Bear Lake
16 Stillwater
East Ridge
-From a high school hockey rivalry perspective, it doesn’t get much better than White Bear-Hill on Tuesday, as both teams ride in undefeated and ready to settle a top seed. Stillwater looms behind them with a good record, but it’s unclear at this point if they’re a spoiler or a contender in their own right. Things get pretty bleak beyond that.

5AA
4 Maple Grove
8 Blaine
20 Centennial
Totino-Grace
-Nothing has really changed here since the preseason, though Centennial taking Maple Grove to overtime does show us this section won’t be a cakewalk. Things really start to ramp up among these teams in Northwest Suburban play in early January.

6AA
9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
10 Edina
14 Wayzata
15 Blake
22 Cretin-Derham Hall
-I’m not sure I can remember a section being this wide open and good. Benilde is still the frontrunner with the win over Edina, but it’s looking pretty tenuous at this point. Wayzata’s win over Blake has the Bears in a tough position, and Cretin looms here as a team with some potential; they’ve got games with Benilde and Blake over the next two weeks that will make or break their seeding fate.

7AA
4 Andover
13 Grand Rapids
23 Cloquet-Esko-Carlton
25 Duluth East
-Andover established itself as a clear #1 by whipping Duluth East, and Grand Rapids has emerged as at least a potential spoiler. Cloquet’s win over East has the Lumberjacks in better shape for a quarterfinal home game. Forest Lake’s soft schedule will look good in QRF, so we’ll see if the rolling Rangers can poach a quality win somewhere and put the pressure on for another quarterfinal home game.

8AA
11 Moorhead
17 Roseau
St. Michael-Albertville
Buffalo
-We have a royal mess on our hands in this one. Moorhead had been rolling along in section games before the Roseau loss and top-to-bottom looks like the best team, but will need to beat Roseau in the rematch. If the Rams can sweep Moorhead and avoid other bad section losses, the top seed can still be theirs. STMA plugs along as the one team here that is playing according to form, while I tossed suddenly surging Buffalo to the top of the very even chase pack beyond that.

[kniven]

i like it, KarlEast

[elliott70]

Duluth east too high
St Michael should be in that spot

[hockey59]

Duluth east too high
St Michael should be in that spot

I concur with Elliott. Don’t you need to string together 2 quality wins to get ranked? It was a good win for DE, but raw talent wise, this is arguably the least talented team Randolph has coached. They need another quality win before they’re (to be) taken seriously Aside from that, the rankings look about right, well done!

[WestMetro]

Karl turns chaos into logic!

Just to illustrate the chaos, Lakeville north decides to start Skyler Vetter in goal For first time in her career- Against Shakopee . Almost a guaranteed running time win at home. Yet the undefeated Panthers offense, Who just came out of a big win against Lakeville South, can’t come up with more than two goals to give the poor girl her first varsity win. For that reason alone, agree to keep them out of the top 10!

[TheNightman]

Some massive games coming up this week. Andover vs. MG and Hill vs. WBL....yes please.

[karl(east)]

Duluth east too high
St Michael should be in that spot

I concur with Elliott. Don’t you need to string together 2 quality wins to get ranked? It was a good win for DE, but raw talent wise, this is arguably the least talented team Randolph has coached. They need another quality win before they’re (to be) taken seriously Aside from that, the rankings look about right, well done!

Ha, I knew the knives would come out on that one. Hard to rank STMA ahead of East when they gave up 9 goals to the team East just beat. And I don't see any contradiction between putting this East team at 25 and saying they're Randolph's least talented team. They've been in the top 20 each of the past 25 seasons, if not more! And sure, they only have one quality win, but they also don't have a bad loss and were preseason #23, so I'd argue they're basically playing to predicted form. They are who I thought they were...though the Blaine win showed some potential for more.

If anyone has a beef with East at #25, I'd say it's Farmington.

[BodyShots]

Is 4AA the toughest section to win? #2 and #5 ranked teams. Wwwwooooooo nelley.

[ryguyMN]

Let’s just crown EP champs and call it a day.

[StanleyCup55]

EP is good but I think Maple Grove is better

Also could see White Bear or Hill, whichever comes out of that section, contending for a title at state. If Andover doesn’t choke in 7AA they’ll contend. I also think Moorhead and Lakeville South can be top notch if they’re on and easily pull an upset.

The tourney should be good this year

[karl(east)]

PS2's first offering:

1. Hill-Murray
2. Andover
3. Eden Prairie
4. Blake
5. Blaine
6. Maple Grove
7. White Bear Lake
8. Lakeville South
9. Lakeville North
10. Edina
11. Cretin
12. Moorhead
13. Rosemount
14. Chaska
15. Wayzata
16. St. Thomas Academy
17. Cloquet
18. Stillwater
19. Prior Lake
20. Holy Family
21. Benilde
22. Duluth East
23. Hastings
24. Grand Rapids
25. Minnetonka

Noticeably higher: Blake, Cretin, Chaska, Cloquet, Holy Family
Noticeably lower: Rosemount, Benilde, Roseau, Centennial

http://minnhock.com/ps2020.htm

[WestMetro]

Truth is I could believe about anything at this point .

Wouldn’t surprise me to see Hm, Andv and EP all lose this week . Although Andover having kron back in action adds a whole other dimension

But I will say I don’t see Blake in top 5 . With Broz
maybe but not without him. Assume high place in PS is due to early win at Andv , which is still a mystery; but again, kron didn’t play that weekend

[Sparlimb]

PS2's first offering:

1. Hill-Murray
2. Andover
3. Eden Prairie
4. Blake
5. Blaine
6. Maple Grove
7. White Bear Lake
8. Lakeville South
9. Lakeville North
10. Edina
11. Cretin
12. Moorhead
13. Rosemount
14. Chaska
15. Wayzata
16. St. Thomas Academy
17. Cloquet
18. Stillwater
19. Prior Lake
20. Holy Family
21. Benilde
22. Duluth East
23. Hastings
24. Grand Rapids
25. Minnetonka

Noticeably higher: Blake, Cretin, Chaska, Cloquet, Holy Family
Noticeably lower: Rosemount, Benilde, Roseau, Centennial

http://minnhock.com/ps2020.htm

I've always loved HAL

[goldy313]

My view on 1AA.....

1) North, they beat South....... I didn’t expect this out of North. Whether they are over achieving or this is real I can’t say. I will say this this though, a tie against Shako may lose confidence in the coach. The next two weeks is huge for North.

2) South, probably the best team but has struggled against North no matter the talent.

3) Hastings, lost their test against Mahtomedi but have taken care of business elsewhere.

4) Owatonna, lost to Apple Valley in their first game but were returning a bunch of key kids from a long football season. Haven’t lost since.

5) Century, a top line and good goalie. Schedule has been brutally easy. Lost to Gentry, but no wins to speak of either. Best player left for the USHL where he has 2 points in 22 games. They are tough to quantify, as they may only play 1 team in PS2 top 60 all year in Hastings. The Boise State of the MSHSL.

6) Farmington, struggled against Mayo, plays tight games against SSC teams.

7-8) Northfield and John Marshall. JM is 1-5 but played, arguably, a tougher schedule than Century. They play Thursday.

9) Mayo, 0-7.....may be the worst team they have ever had. Sad to say.

[goldy313]

By late January I will take HAL over any other rankings.

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

EP is good but I think Maple Grove is better

Also could see White Bear or Hill, whichever comes out of that section, contending for a title at state. If Andover doesn’t choke in 7AA they’ll contend. I also think Moorhead and Lakeville South can be top notch if they’re on and easily pull an upset.

The tourney should be good this year

White Bear. You do know you need to get into the semi-final round to contend for a state title, don't you?

Heh. Heh heh. Heh heh heh.

[Sparlimb]

EP is good but I think Maple Grove is better

Also could see White Bear or Hill, whichever comes out of that section, contending for a title at state. If Andover doesn’t choke in 7AA they’ll contend. I also think Moorhead and Lakeville South can be top notch if they’re on and easily pull an upset.

The tourney should be good this year

White Bear. You do know you need to get into the semi-final round to contend for a state title, don't you?

Heh. Heh heh. Heh heh heh.

I know that's tongue in cheek, but one of these years they are going to do it and watch out. Tuesday's game will be interesting. Hill's had a really nice start to the year and if they win this one they may be undefeated deep into January. I think Stillwater is likely going to be the #3 seed in 4AA and there will be a real drop off to whomever is #4. So avoiding a pesky game against Stillwater is on the line.

[elliott70]

QRF TOP 20 12-16-19
1 Eden Prairie (4-0) 87.0
2 Maple Grove (6-0) 84.8
3 Lakeville South (4-1) 72.7
4 Lakeville North (5-0-1) 71.9
5 Hill-Murray (6-0) 68.9
6 Rosemount (6-1) 67.8
7 Holy Angels (5-0) 66.3
8 Forest Lake (5-0-1) 64.3
9 Stillwater Area (5-1) 64.0
T-10 White Bear Lake (5-0-1) 63.7
T-10 Andover (4-1) 63.7
12 Moorhead (5-2) 58.6
13 Prior Lake (5-2) 58.5
14 Centennial (3-2) 53.6
15 Blaine (4-2) 53.4
16 Wayzata (4-3) 51.9
17 Burnsville (3-1-1) 51.4
18 Blake (5-3) 51.2
19 St. Thomas Academy (4-3) 50.9
20 Roseau (5-3) 50.7

[muckandgrinder65]

MN HUB- PP%, [i]ranked 1-15 from Karl's top 15 AA[/i]

1) MG 64.3
2) AND 38.9 (maybe stay out da box on Thursday vs MG ?? )
3) Hill, Blake 36.0
5) WBL 33.3
6) EP, Blaine 29.4
LVS 25.0
9) Moorhead 22.2
10) Rapids 21.4
11) Rosemount 21.1
12) LVN 18.8
13) BSM 18.5
14) Wayz 17.4
15) Edina 8.7