AA Rankings for 1/15/17

[karl(east)]

The teams are doing their best to make this really hard for me.

1. Stillwater (13-1)
-The Ponies’ perfect season came to an end against White Bear, which makes 4AA even more interesting. They’ve done enough that I’m not going to drop them yet—basically everyone gets one free pass around this point—but with their comparatively weak schedule, another loss or two will really send them tumbling. As long as the conditions are good, the Hockey Day game could say a lot about them.
This week: Thurs at Roseville, Sat vs. #6 Eden Prairie

2. Edina (11-3-1)
-A dominant performance against Blaine ups the Hornets’ stock. They’re 7-0-1 in their last eight, and have that win over Elk River. They’ve shown they can skate with anyone, but they’re not going to take anyone by surprise from here on out (if Edina teams ever do), and the tests start coming in droves now, with an Eden Prairie rematch and a game against cruising Hill this week.
This week: Thurs at #6 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #4 Hill-Murray

3. Elk River (12-3)
-Came up with a dud against Centennial, which starts to raise some questions. Still, two of their three losses are to teams above them, and I think their overall makeup is still pretty good. The Maple Grove game should be a good indication if this was a one-off or not.
This week: Thurs at #11 Maple Grove, Sat vs. Andover

4. Hill-Murray (10-1-3)
-The wins just keep coming, as the Pioneers avenged the Tartan tie. After one more lay-up, they head into their most difficult stretch of the season. Time so see how real this team is.
This week: Tues at Henry Sibley, Sat at #2 Edina

5. Centennial (10-3)
-Well, never mind on last week’s big drop in Centennial’s ranking. A decisive win over Elk River has them rising right back up, and they consistently find ways to harass and wear down the opposition. They could use a second win over Blaine this week to make their 5AA playoff lives easier.
This week: Tues at Osseo, Thurs vs. #15 Blaine

6. Eden Prairie (9-4-2)
-The Eagles didn’t have a flashy road trip north, but they came home with two wins. Still, after watching them twice, I’m think I’m starting to see the method to Lee Smith’s madness: he’s building a tough, deep team, and trying to make sure they can go toe to toe with a tight defensive opponent to avoid repeating last year’s ending. We’ll learn this week if they’ve truly turned a corner: with the top two teams up next, this is their chance to remind the state that they still have the most talent of anyone out there.
This week: Thurs vs. #2 Edina, Sat at #1 Stillwater

7. Holy Family (10-3-2)
-The Fire came from behind to edge Blaine, and toasted Delano to a crisp. I dropped them behind Eden Prairie as part of a mild reassessment, but don’t read too much into it: this is still a great puck possession team that will be a threat in February. The St. Michael-Albertville game this week will be interesting, if only because the Knights are such an unknown quantity.
This week: Tues vs. St. Michael-Albertville, Sat vs. Benilde-St. Margaret’s


8. Lakeville North (10-2-2)
-The Panthers drew first blood in the Battle of Lakeville this season, and continue to hover comfortably in this part of the rankings. They’ve got a three-game week ahead, though on paper they should win them all.
This week: Tues at Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs at Prior Lake, Sat vs. Eastview

9. St. Thomas Academy (11-4-1)
-Fell to Mahtomedi, leaving them winless in their last three against quality competition. I think they’re more talented than this, but the results to prove it haven’t really been there lately. It’ll be a while before they have a chance to prove much of anything again, too, with three pretty light weeks ahead of them now.
This week: Tues at Farmington

10. Grand Rapids (10-4-1)
-The Thunderhawks have fallen on tough times, with just one win in their last five, and an ugly 5-0 loss at the hands of Duluth East puts an exclamation point on it. They’re one-dimensional, but we knew that already; the real issue of late has been the lack of discipline, and how easily they get thrown off. The schedule from here on out is pretty forgiving, which will give them a chance to make up some ground, though they do need to take care of Cloquet this week for seeding purposes.
This week: Tues vs. Cloquet, Thurs vs. Hibbing

11. Maple Grove (10-3)
-Had little issue with an Andover squad that’s given some good teams some trouble lately, and flattened Anoka, too. Now for the hard part: home games against Elk River and Blaine loom. The Blaine game will probably make or break their hopes for the top seed, at the very least.
This week: Thurs vs. #3 Elk River, Sat vs. #15 Blaine

12. White Bear Lake (9-3-2)
-The Bears keep on finding ways to trouble top teams, as they finished off top-ranked Stillwater in another tight, low-scoring battle. They have their formula down, and can give anyone out there fits. They have another shot at a statement this week when they host Hermantown; pull this one out and I might just become a true believer.
This week: Fri vs. Hermantown, Sat vs. Roseville

13. Duluth East (8-5-1)
-A demolition of Grand Rapids puts the Hounds on the radar a little more, and they held their own against Eden Prairie, too. They head on an 8AA road trip, and also enter a somewhat easier stretch of their schedule; this is where they need to rack up the wins to beef up that record.
This week: Fri at Brainerd, Sat at Roseau

14. Minnetonka (9-6)
-Spotting nine goals to Moorhead basically undoes the benefit they got from blowing out East last week, and the Hill win in their only other real quality result. Their opening week of Lake play is on the easier side.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at Wayzata

15. Blaine (8-5-1)
-Losing narrowly to Holy Family isn’t a bad showing, but the Bengals struggled to keep up with Edina. The week ahead will make or break their 5AA seeding.
This week: Thurs at #5 Centennial, Sat at #11 Maple Grove

Bubble Teams

Moorhead (10-3-2)
-The Spuds clearly have explosive potential, as they now have blowout wins over Holy Family and Minnetonka. On the other hand, they tied Breck, who is not a two-class top 15 team at the moment. I’m intrigued, but just can’t quite pull the trigger to put them in the top 15 with the tier ahead of them being as crowded as it is. Revenge for that Brainerd loss wouldn’t hurt their cause.

Lakeville South (9-4-1)
-Lost to North, but it was in overtime, so there’s no reason it couldn’t flip in a second meeting or a collision in Rochester in a section final. Surging Burnsville awaits this week.

St. Michael-Albertville (11-1-1)
-Picked up a nice win in Roseau, though it was fairly close, and overall that does little to change my perception of this part of the rankings. This week, however, we should finally get a handle on where this team stacks up, as they face two legitimate top teams in Holy Family and Hermantown.

Burnsville (8-6-1)
-Taking care of business against South Suburban competition. If they can do anything against Lakeville South this week, it may be time to really start paying attention here.

Roseau (11-4)
-The Rams’ 11-game win streak came to an end against STMA, although they’ve certainly shown they’re as much a contender in 8AA as anyone. The week ahead is not easy as far as their schedule goes, and is East-heavy, with East Grand Forks and Duluth East both on the docket.

Sections time!

1AA
8 Lakeville North
17 Lakeville South
-The Panthers have the early lead for the top seed, and may be doing enough overall to claim it even if they lose the rematch. Still, this is closer than the rankings make it look. It doesn’t matter a whole ton, though, as a rematch between those two is almost a foregone conclusion for the final. Owatonna remains undefeated in section play and should lead the field for #3, and Farmington’s big wins over the two Rochesters they’ve played should be enough for #4.

2AA
6 Eden Prairie
7 Holy Family
14 Minnetonka
Prior Lake
-Over halfway through the season, and we have little in the way of clarity here beyond probably eliminating Prior Lake from the conversation for more than a 4-seed. Things will start to take shape next Saturday when Holy Family visits Minnetonka; with no game against Eden Prairie, this one is probably a must-win for the Fire if they want to claim that top seed and avoid one of the Lake powers in the section semis.

3AA
9 St. Thomas Academy
19 Burnsville
-St. Thomas remains far ahead of the field, but Burnsville is getting hot and beating the next tier of teams comfortably, so we’ll see if the Blaze have any chance of repeating last year’s upset. Beyond that? Eagan has win over Eastview and Rosemount and the Lightning beat the Irish, so they’d fall in that order for now for 3-5, but those three all play again before the season ends.

4AA
1 Stillwater
4 Hill-Murray
12 White Bear Lake
-White Bear’s win over Stillwater throws this one open. If the Ponies win the rematch and avoid any other black eyes, I’d give them #1. A loss, however, and they’re probably #3, so that rematch in the season’s final week will be big. Unless they build a better overall résumé than Hill, I don’t really see a road for White Bear to the top seed given they’ve tied the Pioneers and lost to Woodbury.

5AA
5 Centennial
11 Maple Grove
15 Blaine
-After one round of Northwest Suburban play, we’re stuck in circular logic: Blaine beat Maple Grove who beat Centennial who beat Blaine. For now, they’re in ranking order. All three play each other again in the next two weeks, though, so by next check-in we should basically know how this one shakes out…unless they stay stuck in circular logic, in which case each team’s complete résumé will come into play.

6AA
2 Edina
Wayzata
Cretin-Derham Hall
-The Hornets remain alone at the top, and while I keep waiting for it to happen, Wayzata isn’t doing much to put on the pressure for now. Wayzata plays Benilde Thursday in the Underachievement Bowl, and while one would think the Trojans have enough horses to win and secure the 2-seed, a crazy result isn’t out of the question.

7AA
3 Elk River
13 Duluth East
10 Grand Rapids
Cloquet
-East’s win over Grand Rapids shakes things up here. With a win over Elk River, the Hounds could conceivably claim the top seed unless they’re that much worse against non-section competition. With losses to Elk River and East—and a tie to Andover, for that matter—it’s hard to see Rapids getting more than a 3-seed, which is a point of concern for a team reliant on one line that could use some help from a last change. Cloquet took the inside track for the 4-seed with wins over Andover and Marshall two weeks ago.

8AA
18 St. Michael-Albertville
20 Roseau
16 Moorhead
Bemidji
-St. Michael-Albertville is in command of the top spot after their win in Roseau. The seeding order is fairly clear based on results through now, but recent games have done nothing to shift the sense that this section is wide open, and there are plenty of contests left within the section, too. Moorhead and Bemidji both get chances to atone for their losses to Brainerd in the coming two weeks, and that Moorhead-STMA game a week from Saturday could really shake things up.

[elliott70]

2. Edina (11-3-1)
-A dominant performance against Blaine ups the Hornets’ stock. They’re 7-0-1 in their last ten

Is this a typo....

[BlueLineSpecial]

I'm not sure ER has done enough to stay in the top 3.

5 goal loss to Edina
3 goal loss to Stillwater
4 goal loss to Centennial (where according to the hub they didn't have a shot on goal in the 2nd)

[alcloseshaver]

I'm not sure ER has done enough to stay in the top 3.

5 goal loss to Edina
3 goal loss to Stillwater
4 goal loss to Centennial (where according to the hub they didn't have a shot on goal in the 2nd)

12 wins, including a win at Centennial should help.

[elliott70]

You are not giving enough respect to Section 8
Moorhead should be at 12 or 13 and St Mike's in the top 15.

blueline is probably correct in that ER should drop a bit...


Problem is that there are no clear lines of distinction this year, lots of parity.
Ranking should be based primarily on last two weeks performance as teams seem to be finding themselves or losing themselves....

But still the best Sunday read in America.

[BlueLineSpecial]

I'm not sure ER has done enough to stay in the top 3.

5 goal loss to Edina
3 goal loss to Stillwater
4 goal loss to Centennial (where according to the hub they didn't have a shot on goal in the 2nd)

12 wins, including a win at Centennial should help.

They're a very good team. But #3 right now? IDK.

They deserve a heavier drop. Top 5 still? Yeah.

[alcloseshaver]

You are not giving enough respect to Section 8
Moorhead should be at 12 or 13 and St Mike's in the top 15.

blueline is probably correct in that ER should drop a bit...


Problem is that there are no clear lines of distinction this year, lots of parity.
Ranking should be based primarily on last two weeks performance as teams seem to be finding themselves or losing themselves....

But still the best Sunday read in America.

Hill and Centennial would be the only teams you could move ahead of them at this point. ER plays Hill in few weeks so we have that going for us, which is nice...

[BlueLineSpecial]

You are not giving enough respect to Section 8
Moorhead should be at 12 or 13 and St Mike's in the top 15.

blueline is probably correct in that ER should drop a bit...


Problem is that there are no clear lines of distinction this year, lots of parity.
Ranking should be based primarily on last two weeks performance as teams seem to be finding themselves or losing themselves....

But still the best Sunday read in America.

Hill and Centennial would be the only teams you could move ahead of them at this point. ER plays Hill in few weeks so we have that going for us, which is nice...

I was thinking Karl would do:

1 Stillwater
2 Edina
3 Hill
4 ER
5 Centennial

[alcloseshaver]

You are not giving enough respect to Section 8
Moorhead should be at 12 or 13 and St Mike's in the top 15.

blueline is probably correct in that ER should drop a bit...


Problem is that there are no clear lines of distinction this year, lots of parity.
Ranking should be based primarily on last two weeks performance as teams seem to be finding themselves or losing themselves....

But still the best Sunday read in America.

Hill and Centennial would be the only teams you could move ahead of them at this point. ER plays Hill in few weeks so we have that going for us, which is nice...

I was thinking Karl would do:

1 Stillwater
2 Edina
3 Hill
4 ER
5 Centennial

Apples and Oranges

[BlueLineSpecial]

Hill and Centennial would be the only teams you could move ahead of them at this point. ER plays Hill in few weeks so we have that going for us, which is nice...

I was thinking Karl would do:

1 Stillwater
2 Edina
3 Hill
4 ER
5 Centennial

Apples and Oranges

Yup. Very little difference. Thanks Karl. Love this Sunday morning read.

[Clarkkent]

Moorhead should move up and ER should move down a lot more in my opinion.

[kniven]

You are not giving enough respect to Section 8
Moorhead should be at 12 or 13 and St Mike's in the top 15.

blueline is probably correct in that ER should drop a bit...


Problem is that there are no clear lines of distinction this year, lots of parity.
Ranking should be based primarily on last two weeks performance as teams seem to be finding themselves or losing themselves....

But still the best Sunday read in America.

Excellent read Karl. Me like Sunday mornings

[TheHockeyDJ]

I think East will beat Elk River and take the #1 seed. This would probably setup my favorite semi-final schedule, really what I hope for in terms of match-ups every year, Noon - East vs CEC, 2:00 ER vs GR. I think CEC could give East some trouble in the playoffs.

[kniven]

I think East will beat Elk River and take the #1 seed. This would probably setup my favorite semi-final schedule, really what I hope for in terms of match-ups every year, Noon - East vs CEC, 2:00 ER vs GR. I think CEC could give East some trouble in the playoffs.

That is the semi-final everybody wants. Nobody wants to see East vs. Rapids in the semi-final. Elks and Lumberjacks the ugly sisters East and Rapids the beauty queens the majority want too see every single year in the final That's reality. I'm ok with it .

[hockey59]

You are not giving enough respect to Section 8
Moorhead should be at 12 or 13 and St Mike's in the top 15.

blueline is probably correct in that ER should drop a bit...


Problem is that there are no clear lines of distinction this year, lots of parity.
Ranking should be based primarily on last two weeks performance as teams seem to be finding themselves or losing themselves....

But still the best Sunday read in America.

Hill and Centennial would be the only teams you could move ahead of them at this point. ER plays Hill in few weeks so we have that going for us, which is nice...

I was thinking Karl would do:

1 Stillwater
2 Edina
3 Hill
4 ER
5 Centennial

How does a win against STA, 2 wins over Burnsville, a tie to EP (lost in a SO) a tie with WBL & Tartan and a loss to Tonka...result in the #4 ranking for Hill? They're best win is against the 9th rank team. They haven't played a very tough schedule. They should be about 7 or 8 IMO.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Hill and Centennial would be the only teams you could move ahead of them at this point. ER plays Hill in few weeks so we have that going for us, which is nice...

I was thinking Karl would do:

1 Stillwater
2 Edina
3 Hill
4 ER
5 Centennial

How does a win against STA, 2 wins over Burnsville, a tie to EP (lost in a SO) a tie with WBL & Tartan and a loss to Tonka...result in the #4 ranking for Hill? They're best win is against the 9th rank team. They haven't played a very tough schedule. They should be about 7 or 8 IMO.

You could definitely argue Centennial and EP, based on their big wins, could be above Hill. I think it's stretching it to say that Holy Family or Lakeville North should be above them right now. As others have noted, lots of parity in the top 10. Hill will have their chance to prove things coming up. Edina on the road, at home against Elk River and Maple Grove.

[blueblood]

IF east is a top 15 team, then Spuds are a top 15 team.

I would move Tonka Down to "Under Consideration" and move in Moorhead.

Woodbury is another team I would add into the "Under Consideration" grouping. MN QRF has them ranked 13

FWIW - QRF has East ranked 23rd. They must not know who karl(east) is.

[BlueLineSpecial]

Hill and Centennial would be the only teams you could move ahead of them at this point. ER plays Hill in few weeks so we have that going for us, which is nice...

I was thinking Karl would do:

1 Stillwater
2 Edina
3 Hill
4 ER
5 Centennial

How does a win against STA, 2 wins over Burnsville, a tie to EP (lost in a SO) a tie with WBL & Tartan and a loss to Tonka...result in the #4 ranking for Hill? They're best win is against the 9th rank team. They haven't played a very tough schedule. They should be about 7 or 8 IMO.

By the way, everyone makes the 'Hill plays a soft schedule' argument. Based on conference it's harder for them some seasons to compile an ultra challenging strength of schedule. But they typically do a good job of tough scheduling. Here is Karl's top 10 and the number of games where that team won or tied a team in Karl's top 15 + bubble teams (top 20 teams):

Stillwater 2
Edina 7
ER 5
HM 5
Centennial 6
EP 4
HF 5
LN 6
STA 4
GR 4

Hills wins/ties against good competition is right in line with every other top 10 team.

[BodyShots]

#12 for my WBL boys? I thought they would get a little more love after beating #1, and ties against #2 and #4.

[elliott70]

You are not giving enough respect to Section 8
Moorhead should be at 12 or 13 and St Mike's in the top 15.

blueline is probably correct in that ER should drop a bit...


Problem is that there are no clear lines of distinction this year, lots of parity.
Ranking should be based primarily on last two weeks performance as teams seem to be finding themselves or losing themselves....

But still the best Sunday read in America.

Hill and Centennial would be the only teams you could move ahead of them at this point. ER plays Hill in few weeks so we have that going for us, which is nice...

I would move Hill in front of them...

[elliott70]

#12 for my WBL boys? I thought they would get a little more love after beating #1, and ties against #2 and #4.

I would swap GRapids with White Bear...

[BlueLineSpecial]

#12 for my WBL boys? I thought they would get a little more love after beating #1, and ties against #2 and #4.

I would swap GRapids with White Bear...

Completely agree. Da bears could even be in the 9 spot, where STA is now (and drop STA to 10). No love for the bears on the forum today

[east hockey]

IF east is a top 15 team, then Spuds are a top 15 team.

I would move Tonka Down to "Under Consideration" and move in Moorhead.

Woodbury is another team I would add into the "Under Consideration" grouping. MN QRF has them ranked 13

FWIW - QRF has East ranked 23rd. They must not know who karl(east) is.

Or math

Lee

[hockeygirl2]

Nice job Karl. Great thoughts on Lee and Eden Prairie strategy. Makes sense. A lot of teams seem to try and put their focus on the regular season and overplay their players before the playoffs. Two bad things happen when coaches do that and that is the kids get worn down and don't develop everyone. You can't win playing two lines in sections and state. Many coaches overlook this during the season.

[Clarkkent]

Nice job Karl. Great thoughts on Lee and Eden Prairie strategy. Makes sense. A lot of teams seem to try and put their focus on the regular season and overplay their players before the playoffs. Two bad things happen when coaches do that and that is the kids get worn down and don't develop everyone. You can't win playing two lines in sections and state. Many coaches overlook this during the season.

Ya, Lee doesn't ever overplay his horses during the regular season