AA Rankings Question - top three teams

cake83 · Post by **cake83** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:12 pm

I will be the first to admit that I don't know much about this all. I get out to 3-5 games per year. I don't have kids playing. I don't mean any offense to fans of other teams...

but doesn't it seem like Lakeville North, Edina, and St. Thomas are deserving of 1, 2, and 3 (with debate as to who might win it all), and everyone else is distantly fighting for position miles behind them?

Last week, the Let’s Play Hockey coaches poll had 4 of the 5 Lake Conference teams listed as top 10 teams in the state. Over the last two weeks, Edina played through the Lake Conference winning by a combined score of 25-9 (even beating No. 5 ranked EP by a score of 5-0). Three weeks ago, Edina also beat number 4 Hill Murray by a score of 6-3 and it didn't even feel that close during the game (Edina was up 5-0 in the 3rd before letting HM back in it).

I'm a big Edina fan but don't write me off. I welcome other perspectives or insights into this. I get why Lakeville North deserves the number 1 ranking and St. Thomas worries me greatly. Anything can happen around this time of the year, but doesn't the gap between 3 and 4 seem larger this year than any recent years? What other teams could pull it together and match the ability of the 3 teams at the top? What might I be missing and if it's not going to be one of those three, who do you think will win it all?

alcloseshaver · Post by **alcloseshaver** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:26 pm

This is 2 horse race.

cake83 · Post by **cake83** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:33 pm

alcloseshaver wrote:This is 2 horse race.

Am I being too generous to St. Thomas? I haven't seen them play but I know that the Hockey Day MN loss wasn't the truest display of their ability and that they have the largest goal differential in state.

Anyone else seen them much? Are they up there with Lakeville North and Edina or are they closer to the field?

Sats81 · Post by **Sats81** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:50 pm

cake83 wrote:
alcloseshaver wrote:This is 2 horse race.
Am I being too generous to St. Thomas? I haven't seen them play but I know that the Hockey Day MN loss wasn't the truest display of their ability and that they have the largest goal differential in state.

Anyone else seen them much? Are they up there with Lakeville North and Edina or are they closer to the field?

I truly believe STA could beat LN or Edina. If LN wins it all, its gonna be critical that they get a 1 seed at the X so Edina and STA can beat on each other Friday night.

cake83 · Post by **cake83** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 4:59 pm

Sats81 wrote: If LN wins it all, its gonna be critical that they get a 1 seed at the X so Edina and STA can beat on each other Friday night.

If Edina and LN both win out the rest of the year and cruise through sections, is it possible for Edina to get the 1 seed in rankings? I would imagine strength of schedule has to be on their side and they are the reigning champs. Would the 1 head-to-head road loss from earlier this year be enough to keep Edina at 2??

The Exiled One · Post by **The Exiled One** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:01 pm

cake83 wrote:If Edina and LN both win out the rest of the year and cruise through sections, is it possible for Edina to get the 1 seed in rankings?

Some computer models already have them as #1, but there is no chance at all that the committee would give Edina the #1 seed over LVN if LVN is undefeated going into the Tourney. None.

Sats81 · Post by **Sats81** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:02 pm

cake83 wrote:
Sats81 wrote: If LN wins it all, its gonna be critical that they get a 1 seed at the X so Edina and STA can beat on each other Friday night.
If Edina and LN both win out the rest of the year and cruise through sections, is it possible for Edina to get the 1 seed in rankings? I would imagine strength of schedule has to be on their side and they are the reigning champs. Would the 1 head-to-head road loss from earlier this year be enough to keep Edina at 2??

No way does Edina get the 1 seed if the above mentioned scenario occurs. LN's strength of schedule isn't that much worse than Edina's....LN has been #1 all year since the Edina game and I do think the head to head win is enough for them to obtain 1 seed at the X.

alcloseshaver · Post by **alcloseshaver** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:07 pm

What is the criteria, I thought the coaches from the participating teams voted on seedings?

warriors41 · Post by **warriors41** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:07 pm

Sats81 wrote:
cake83 wrote:
alcloseshaver wrote:This is 2 horse race.
Am I being too generous to St. Thomas? I haven't seen them play but I know that the Hockey Day MN loss wasn't the truest display of their ability and that they have the largest goal differential in state.

Anyone else seen them much? Are they up there with Lakeville North and Edina or are they closer to the field?
I truly believe STA could beat LN or Edina. If LN wins it all, its gonna be critical that they get a 1 seed at the X so Edina and STA can beat on each other Friday night.

If Hill Murray beats STA again this week and they both make it to state, do you think HM would get the #3 seed instead? It would be interesting to see since they'd have swept the Cadets. I have no clue how that would turn out but It might render your point of Edina and STA beating each other up moot.

Post by **karl(east)** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:09 pm

The Exiled One wrote:
cake83 wrote:If Edina and LN both win out the rest of the year and cruise through sections, is it possible for Edina to get the 1 seed in rankings?
Some computer models already have them as #1, but there is no chance at all that the committee would give Edina the #1 seed over LVN if LVN is undefeated going into the Tourney. None.

Exactly. Edina may well be the better team and if they were to play noticeably better than LVN down the stretch (which I don't think they are at the moment), I wouldn't be afraid to flip them in my human rankings. But when it comes to seeding, no way does an undefeated team from a power conference that has beaten #2 not get the top seed.

I think STA is a slight step behind the top two, but plenty capable of beating them. 6AA may look like a mess right now, but someone is going to have to get hot and win it, so I wouldn't write off its winner, either.

Sats81 · Post by **Sats81** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:09 pm

warriors41 wrote:
Sats81 wrote:
cake83 wrote: Am I being too generous to St. Thomas? I haven't seen them play but I know that the Hockey Day MN loss wasn't the truest display of their ability and that they have the largest goal differential in state.

Anyone else seen them much? Are they up there with Lakeville North and Edina or are they closer to the field?
I truly believe STA could beat LN or Edina. If LN wins it all, its gonna be critical that they get a 1 seed at the X so Edina and STA can beat on each other Friday night.
If Hill Murray beats STA again this week and they both make it to state, do you think HM would get the #3 seed instead? It would be interesting to see since they'd have swept the Cadets. I have no clue how that would turn out but It might render your point of Edina and STA beating each other up moot.

True. I think if Hill beats STA this week and both make it to the tourney, Hill would get the 3 seed over STA.

cake83 · Post by **cake83** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:09 pm

Sats81 wrote:
cake83 wrote:
Sats81 wrote: If LN wins it all, its gonna be critical that they get a 1 seed at the X so Edina and STA can beat on each other Friday night.
If Edina and LN both win out the rest of the year and cruise through sections, is it possible for Edina to get the 1 seed in rankings? I would imagine strength of schedule has to be on their side and they are the reigning champs. Would the 1 head-to-head road loss from earlier this year be enough to keep Edina at 2??
No way does Edina get the 1 seed if the above mentioned scenario occurs. LN's strength of schedule isn't that much worse than Edina's....LN has been #1 all year since the Edina game and I do think the head to head win is enough for them to obtain 1 seed at the X.

I figured as much... thanks for the feedback Sats.

So since STA is the team I'm most interested in avoiding I suppose the only options are for HM to beat STA this week (possibly moving STA to 4), STA to lose in sections, or LN to pick up a loss before the season ends. Do you see any of those scenarios happening?

Sats81 · Post by **Sats81** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:13 pm

cake83 wrote:
Sats81 wrote:
cake83 wrote: If Edina and LN both win out the rest of the year and cruise through sections, is it possible for Edina to get the 1 seed in rankings? I would imagine strength of schedule has to be on their side and they are the reigning champs. Would the 1 head-to-head road loss from earlier this year be enough to keep Edina at 2??
No way does Edina get the 1 seed if the above mentioned scenario occurs. LN's strength of schedule isn't that much worse than Edina's....LN has been #1 all year since the Edina game and I do think the head to head win is enough for them to obtain 1 seed at the X.
I figured as much... thanks for the feedback Sats.

So since STA is the team I'm most interested in avoiding I suppose the only options are for HM to beat STA this week (possibly moving STA to 4), STA to lose in sections, or LN to pick up a loss before the season ends. Do you see any of those scenarios happening?

I feel strongly that LN will NOT lose before reg season ends, and I feel strongly that STA will NOT lose in sections. I think the most likely of what you said is HM to beat STA this week, but I feel like STA is gonna come out and light HM up after HDM loss.

almostashappy · Post by **almostashappy** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:16 pm

cake83 wrote:
Sats81 wrote:
cake83 wrote: If Edina and LN both win out the rest of the year and cruise through sections, is it possible for Edina to get the 1 seed in rankings? I would imagine strength of schedule has to be on their side and they are the reigning champs. Would the 1 head-to-head road loss from earlier this year be enough to keep Edina at 2??
No way does Edina get the 1 seed if the above mentioned scenario occurs. LN's strength of schedule isn't that much worse than Edina's....LN has been #1 all year since the Edina game and I do think the head to head win is enough for them to obtain 1 seed at the X.
I figured as much... thanks for the feedback Sats.

So since STA is the team I'm most interested in avoiding I suppose the only options are for HM to beat STA this week (possibly moving STA to 4), STA to lose in sections, or LN to pick up a loss before the season ends. Do you see any of those scenarios happening?

You might want to hold off on all of this worrying until that short period of time crops up in between the last section final and the announced seedings. There's almost always one "certain" Tourney participant that stumbles, and who knows if that team is the one that you're at risk of jinxing.

thestickler07 · Post by **thestickler07** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:33 pm

LVN and Edina both win out Lakeville is top seed without a doubt, even if Edina is blasting teams 5-0 and Lakeville is just squeaking by.

In terms of STAA vs HM for the 3/4 seed I think the Cadets would have to drop the game to Hill (or lose very convincingly) and another to be bumped to the 4. Even if the result of the 2nd HM vs STAA game is the same I can't see STAA being bumped to the 4 seed with the Pioneer's loss to Mahtomedi and overall having twice as many L's as the Cadets.

We'll see though, maybe the Cadets lose to the Zephyrs and things get really messy. I would just rather they sweep this week and make the 3rd seed a forgone conclusion. They already missed one semifinal date with Edina this season I think the boys in blue want a crack at the Hornets.

cake83 · Post by **cake83** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:36 pm

almostashappy wrote: You might want to hold off on all of this worrying until that short period of time crops up in between the last section final and the announced seedings. There's almost always one "certain" Tourney participant that stumbles, and who knows if that team is the one that you're at risk of jinxing.

Haha - good point!

But that kind of goes back to my original question... Is the skill gap between the top 3 teams and the field much greater this year than in years past? I guess I don't recall a recent year where the top three teams combine for 3 total losses and they stay on top and in order for the whole year.

I get that upsets happen, but it's probably unlikely that all three of these teams fail to play to their potential. Isn't one of them winning almost a certainty at this point?

Sats81 · Post by **Sats81** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:38 pm

cake83 wrote:
almostashappy wrote: You might want to hold off on all of this worrying until that short period of time crops up in between the last section final and the announced seedings. There's almost always one "certain" Tourney participant that stumbles, and who knows if that team is the one that you're at risk of jinxing.
Haha - good point!

But that kind of goes back to my original question... Is the skill gap between the top 3 teams and the field much greater this year than in years past? I guess I don't recall a recent year where the top three teams combine for 3 total losses and they stay on top and in order for the whole year.

I get that upsets happen, but it's probably unlikely that all three of these teams fail to play to their potential. Isn't one of them winning almost a certainty at this point?

I would almost guarantee that 1 of the 3 wins it all.

old goalie85 · Post by **old goalie85** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:39 pm

WBL is going to beat Hill this time.

elliott70 · Post by **elliott70** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:50 pm

alcloseshaver wrote:What is the criteria, I thought the coaches from the participating teams voted on seedings?

Yup.
And that could mean Edina #1.
And LS not seeded at all.

And a Benilde Bemidji final
Or gGRapids Hill final.

alcloseshaver · Post by **alcloseshaver** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 5:55 pm

slacsap · Post by **slacsap** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 7:02 pm

I would guess that if Hill beats STA for a second time on Saturday and both get to state (and neither of those items is a given) Hill would get the #3 ahead of STA. Two wins and a stronger strength of schedule would likely make a difference in the coaches' minds. Hill's losses are to Lakeville North, Edina (twice). Eden Prairie, Blaine and Mahtomedi, all of which are in the Top Ten in their class.

nahc · Post by **nahc** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 7:36 pm

Lets put it this way, if Edina had Norths record right now and beat the teams North had beaten, was undefeated and had beaten North head to head, would this conversation even be taking place....... heck no..... so lets give North the credit the team deserves........ that is the number 1 ranking in the state and the number 1 seed in the tourney if service holds true through sections.

Just Checking · Post by **Just Checking** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 8:14 pm

slacsap wrote:I would guess that if Hill beats STA for a second tome on Saturday and both get to state (and neither of those items is a given) Hill would get the #3 ahead of STA. Two wins and a stronger strength of schedule would likely make a difference in the coaches' minds. Hill's losses are to Lakeville North, Edina (twice). Eden Prairie, Blaine and Mahtomedi, all of which ar ein the Top Ten in their class.

Hill beats STA and gets to state they are most likely 3 seed if STA also makes it. STA most likely no worse than 4th. Just like most have said here.
But if-
Hill loses to STA then the 4-0 loss to Mahtomedi is compounded. That is a bad loss for the #4 team in AA, 3-2, 4-3 not good, but more based on a bounce or 2, 4-0 is significant. Hill most likely would get to the X with 7 losses.

Now play this out
#1 LVN 0 loss
#2 Edina 1 loss
#3 STA 2 losses

#? Blaine only 5 losses and win over Hill
#? Elk River most likely 4 losses
#? Bemidji 3 losses
#? EP 7 losses and win over Hill

#8 Hill

I know long shot all these teams getting in but if they do, with these losses, there would be a strong argument for Hill to be behind each of these. So the chances of being unseeded at state are seriously in play if they lose Saturday and 2 of these teams get in.

Benilde winning out over EP could be 7 losses and through a much tougher section, even with an early season loss to HM it could be argued they should be seeded ahead of HM.

Hill's signature wins are Benilde by 2 in 2nd game of year, WB, Wayzata, each 2-1 and STA in OT, outdoors, there is no other big wins.

WestMetro · Post by **WestMetro** » Mon Feb 02, 2015 8:37 pm

Agree LVN will be #1 seed. Edina #2. Rest still unclear.

Mark your calendars for Tues EP at BSM, Thursday Edina at Wayz , and Saturday STA at HM Aldrich 3 pm. Three interesting games.

Mark your calendars for Shakopee Arena 4 pm on the 14th. The game will be a blowout, but if you live in the south or west metro at least try to get there for period 3. You want to be able to have witnessed the 25 and 0 run by the Panthers, I think its only the 3rd time in regular season history by a top tier modern era AA team.

Jumping past the playoffs to the X, likely to be a two horse race but almost anything can happen in one game X matchups. Witness 2012 where all 4 underdogs won.

Coaching is huge.

Goaltending is huge, someone double check me but I dont think any of the likely goalies will have X playing time experience. Edquist gets the edge, has the best stats and the best career nerve testing opposition in the most venues.. But, Boe has been steady all year so far....

green4 · Post by **green4** » Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:25 am

WestMetro wrote:

Mark your calendars for Shakopee Arena 4 pm on the 14th. The game will be a blowout, but if you live in the south or west metro at least try to get there for period 3. You want to be able to have witnessed the 25 and 0 run by the Panthers, I think its only the 3rd time in regular season history by a top tier modern era AA team.
.

"All in all, Panthers took care of business and the march continues. See you at Shakopee 4 pm February 14 for the 25th."

"Finally, I got my calendar marked to next see the Panther faithful at 4 pm February 14 at Shakopee Ice Arena for the historic game 25 win"

"Make your plans for Shakopee Arena on February 14th, for the 25th."

"So, I will next see the Panther faithful at the Southwest Metro Shakopee Arena on Feb 14th for the 25th win."

"Or, maybe I will wait til Shakopee 4 pm on Feb 14th. That game should be a snoozer except for us die hards that might want to see a game #25 history maker."

Hold the phone..... what's happening on the 14th??