Have no idea what to make of this, other than to conclude that in Class AA Section 6 would again appear to be the strongest, by far. Fooling around with the numbers, the total KRACH rating for 6AA as a whole is 4570.76. All other sections COMBINED total just 2510.397. That is not to say the eventual 6AA representative in the State Tournament will win...
What struck me here is that Minnetonka has played the 2nd most difficult schedule in the State, yet they have an unblemished record at 10-0-0. Very impressive!
Marty wrote:Hill will climb. They have a tough pre-conference schedule and they need to !
The question is not whether Hill will run the table in their conference, the question is
Will Hill give a goal in the Classic Suburban Conference ?
They gave up a goal last night vs. NSP....
Hill did move up quite a bit as predicted. But, they also allowed three tonight vs Henry Sibley in Conf play while apparently playing pretty deep into their bench and on some special teams/bounces.
ghshockeyfan wrote:
Hill did move up quite a bit as predicted. But, they also allowed three tonight vs Henry Sibley in Conf play while apparently playing pretty deep into their bench and on some special teams/bounces.
It shows the coaching staff might actually figure it out. Two double digit scoring conference games in a row would have been poor taste and maybe Classic Suburban Conference would mobilize to try throw them out like they did STA
Classic Suburban conference may be the weakest metro conference this year. Most of the conference games for Hill will either train their youngsters or create laziness among their top lines because they will go largely unchallenged.
Sibley, Simley and North must all be rebuilidng or looking to co-op.
I know 2 of those schools have lost quality players to private schools, I wouldn't call it rebuilding if you were never very good in the first place. I'd call it annually struggling to field a competitive team.
LSQRANK 22-DEC-2013 Minnesota High School Girls League Class A & AA
LSQRANK is a numerical ranking system that performs a least squares best fit
of IN-season data of performance based measurable attributes between sports teams. This program adapts adjustment computation methods developed for spatial data analysis to the science of sports performance ranking. Algorithms are employed to compute composite margin of victory scores (MOV) and observation weights that are used to build the reduced Normal Equation Matrices. The solution of the equations is an iterative solution using the Cholesky solution algorithm. The solution to the system of observation
equations produces:
(1) LSQRANK, a relative ranking order of the given teams in the league;
(2) GD, a modelled goal differential based on rank & score;
(3) avgSS, an average strength of schedule of each team;
(4) Wi, a report of the standardized residuals of the observations.
OsMetroDad wrote:LSQRANK 22-DEC-2013 Minnesota High School Girls League Class A & AA
LSQRANK is a numerical ranking system that performs a least squares best fit
of IN-season data of performance based measurable attributes between sports teams. This program adapts adjustment computation methods developed for spatial data analysis to the science of sports performance ranking. Algorithms are employed to compute composite margin of victory scores (MOV) and observation weights that are used to build the reduced Normal Equation Matrices. The solution of the equations is an iterative solution using the Cholesky solution algorithm. The solution to the system of observation
equations produces:
(1) LSQRANK, a relative ranking order of the given teams in the league;
(2) GD, a modelled goal differential based on rank & score;
(3) avgSS, an average strength of schedule of each team;
(4) Wi, a report of the standardized residuals of the observations.
Least squares... I can remember calculating these by hand years ago for practice and understanding...
Problem I have with a goal diff consideration is different teams score control differently in blowouts (i.e. some don't) so this needs to be capped above a certain point at minimum.
Will be interesting to see how this compares to KRACH, QRF, LPH, etc. - Thanks for sharing!
OsMetroDad wrote:LSQRANK 22-DEC-2013 Minnesota High School Girls League Class A & AA
Problem I have with a goal diff consideration is different teams score control differently in blowouts (i.e. some don't) so this needs to be capped above a certain point at minimum.
Will be interesting to see how this compares to KRACH, QRF, LPH, etc. - Thanks for sharing!
The algorithm I implemmented basically greatly down-weights run-away scores beyond the MOV threshold which is calculated at MOV_mean + 1.28*MOV_sigma. The 1.28 sigma corresponds to an alpha of 10%, so what it is doing is allowing the upper 10% tail of a normal distribution curve to be downweighted, ie, saying 1 out of every 10 games fall in that category. The actual raw MOV threhold computes to be approximately 6.85 goals which makes a good statistical basis to raise the running time goal differential from 6 to 7 goals. Currently, based on a normal distribution, by setting the running time differential to 6 goals in a single tail distribution, one is essentially saying that 1 out of every 6 games should be severely down-weighted
OMD, thanks, some very interesting stuff. Do you think that this model down-weights that runaway scores sufficiently, though, both for (1) the magnitude of the down-weighting and for (2) the threshhold of the MOV when the down-weighting begins? Thanks again and I'm also interested to see how this compares to other models.
It is possible to let the user set a specific threshold cut-off also via GUI parameter controls, ie, 6 goals if that is desired. Additionally, it is possible to also set an individual weight per observation provided that one has "good information" and a basis to apply a specific weight. In surveying & mapping, we would call this a field observation or "ground control point" where the true value of the accuraccy of the GCP is weight appropriately. Translating to a hockey game situation, if one was privy to the details of a particular blow-out game, setting a user defined weight is valid. For example, Blake recently blew out SPU 10-0. It was 6-0 after 2 periods and then SPU switched in their backup goalie which then had a 50% save percentage for the next 4 goals. So in this situation, one probablly needs to discount the entire 3rd period with regard to raw goals score (4), any credit for shots & penality kills. The composite MOV ended up to be a +14.6 , therefore an appropriate weight applied to this observation might be +/- 8.xx which is basically giving Blake credit for a 6-0 win over SPU. Looking at the overall data set, the critical observations that have the most critical role in determining the final solution are the close games, that have a relatively small +/- weight value applied to a game observation, the blowouts which get down-weight generally have a much lesser effect in a least squares solution.
I think a few records are incomplete or inaccurate I am sure this is because of the Inconsistency between the star tribune hub and the MGHCA website not working together until lately
Spring lake park was listed as 7-3-1
But the record is 6-4-1. I had a few more reported to me that looked off not sure if it is a big deal or if anyone cares
...and that Top 8 would make a hell of a tournament, with any of the teams capable of winning it all, or losing 3 straight. I do believe those are the best eight...
I created a prelim web site on weebly with the ranking data presented above on it. I want to get the residual analysis on the site also because I think it tells the real story about the adjustment of the data and why the teams rank as they do. The web site is :
It was a bit of a bugger to get columns to align using the weebly web page building tools, so before I get the rest of the data up, I may just put a link to a PDF that can be downloaded.
Marty wrote:Breakdown by Section is interesting. Let's see how mid-season rankings translate to State participation.
I hate to by Danny Downer...but to much for me! Ratings are fun watch and see our favorite club rise and fall. However, micro analyzing stats probably doesn't do any better than most educated hockey peeps "gut" feeling on ranking. Stats do not show, injuries, coaching..drama, etc.
Still fun stuff....but even if the rankings were completely right, we all know the "top 8" teams do not get to go to state!
I have a tear in my eye. I feel so bad that only one team from section 6AA will make it to state. bla-bla-bla......... What about all the teams in all the other sports that dont make it and way worse teams go to state? Were not going to change it ever boys! Deal with the way it is cause they are not changing it for girls hockey and then doing nothing in all the other HS school sports. You guys that dont like the rules can always move and take your chances at a differnt school.
Football already changed and basketball is discussing changes. I would agree, though, that hockey is behind those sports in terms of equity and we'll all just need to live with the status quo for quite some time, if not always. Until that day of equity arrives, the reality is that many lesser teams will continue to get free passes to the state tournament. Life isn't fair; we may as well teach that reality to our children when they're young . . . and keep hitting them over the head with it year after year after year until it sinks in.
sinbin wrote:Football already changed and basketball is discussing changes. I would agree, though, that hockey is behind those sports in terms of equity and we'll all just need to live with the status quo for quite some time, if not always. Until that day of equity arrives, the reality is that many lesser teams will continue to get free passes to the state tournament. Life isn't fair; we may as well teach that reality to our children when they're young . . . and keep hitting them over the head with it year after year after year until it sinks in.
Very Metrocentric... Petition to be in Section 7 or Section 8, schedule a home and away game against 5 of the teams in your new section (Tuesdays and Thursdays are fun) and take advantage of your free pass. Seems like a fair deal...
