AA Rankings for 1/27/13

[karl(east)]

Our tumultuous top ten saw a few new twists this past week, and once again, we have a new team at the top. Lake Conference play is certainly mucking things up, but at least some clarity is emerging in the section races, and so there’s plenty to talk about in the section capsules that come after the rankings. But first, your new top 15:

1. Hill-Murray (16-2-1)
-The Pioneers had a big week, as they shut down the team that has given them two of the three blemishes on their record—St. Thomas Academy—and rolled past Tartan. When coupled with Wayzata’s losses this week, that’s enough to send the Pioneers back into the top spot. Given the weakness of their remaining schedule, they aren’t likely to relinquish that status before the playoffs. As I said when they rose to #1 after the Schwan Cup, they may not be a dominant #1, but they are a clear #1.
This week: Thurs at North St. Paul, Sat vs. Richfield

2. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (14-5)
-The Red Knights rewarded my faith in them last week in a 9-1 demolition of Elk River. Once again they showed that their offensive prowess is unmatched, and they’ve had a similar sort of response after each of their losses. While they have proven to be just as beatable as any team in the 2-7 range, they are also the only one in this group capable of really blowing out another team in this tier, and that is enough to separate them a tiny bit from the teams behind them. Only one game this coming week; I’d expect a comfortable win, though stranger things have happened.
This week: Wed vs. Holy Family

3. Minnetonka (14-4-1)
-The Skippers closed out the first half of the Lake Conference season undefeated, which is quite the feat for any team in this conference; the accomplishment is made even more impressive with two of those wins coming on the road. Such a surge deserves to be rewarded, so they’re up to #3 for now, though it won’t be easy to keep this spot—they have a trip up to Duluth this week, as if this part of their schedule isn’t already difficult enough, and they also host Edina.
This week: Tues at #7 Duluth East, Sat vs. #4 Edina

4. Edina (15-4)
-A week after sinking out of the top five for the first time all year, the Hornets bounce back up in the rankings following a 5-4 win over Wayzata. There are still some questions about the defense after the narrow win, but the offense is back on track after a slump earlier in the month, and their overall body of work is as good as anyone’s in the 2-7 range. The brutal march through Lake Conference play continues this week, as the Hornets visit both Eden Prairie and Minnetonka.
This week: Thurs at #13 Eden Prairie, Sat at #3 Minnetonka

5. Wayzata (15-4)
-It was a rough week for the Trojans, who tumble from the top spot after losses to Minnetonka and Edina. They still have enough big wins in the not-so-distant past to keep from dropping any further, but they’ve also been walking a fine line all year with their narrow wins, often being outshot along the way. They get something of a rest from tough Lake play this week, though Hopkins can’t be taken too lightly.
This week: Tues at Osseo, Thurs at Hopkins

6. Eagan (15-3-1)
-In sorting out 3-7, it’s hard to figure out where to mix in the Lake teams with those outside the conference; this week, it’s the non-Lake teams who take a perhaps unjustified step backwards simply due to the dynamics of the Lake games. The Wildcats did nothing wrong this past week, as they continued their steady march through the South Suburban and earned comfortable wins over Lakeville South and Rosemount. The stakes are a bit higher this coming week, as they face the second- and third-ranked teams in the conference, respectively. Wins will keep them near the top and may allow them to move back up as the Lake teams continue to beat up on one another.
This week: Tues vs. #9 Burnsville, Sat at #11 Prior Lake

7. Duluth East (15-4)
-As with Eagan, the Hounds drop through no real fault of their own, as they posted 3-goal victories over Forest Lake and Maple Grove, and have now won seven straight since the loss to Duluth Denfeld. When it comes to positioning in the rankings, this week’s contest with Minnetonka is a big one; a second win over the Skippers would probably vault them into the top five, while a loss probably wouldn’t drop them at all. After that, they have a potentially interesting grudge match with Lakeville South.
This week: Tues vs. #3 Minnetonka, Sat at Lakeville South

8. Centennial (15-3-2)
-Beat a decent Mounds View team and survived a tight contest with Maple Grove, earning themselves a pair of quality wins, but a tie with Champlin Park raises a few doubts about the Cougars. But when it comes to the section, it all comes down to Saturday’s test against Blaine; the Bengals beat them in overtime back in December, and the Cougars will need to avenge that loss to earn the top spot in 5AA.
This week: Sat at #10 Blaine

9. Burnsville (11-7-1)
-The Blaze clawed out a narrow win over Eastview, which lets them hold steady in this spot; despite Centennial’s iffy tie, their record is a bit too poor to sneak any higher. If they want any chance to dethrone Eagan in the South Suburban, this Tuesday’s game is a must-win.
This week: Tues at #6 Eagan, Sat vs. Apple Valley

10. Blaine (13-4-1)
-The Bengals have spent the past few weeks doing what they need to do against the middle and lower tiers of the Northwest Suburban Conference, as they have now won seven in a row. The schedule starts to pick up again over the last few weeks, however, and they lead off that stretch with a home game against section archrival Centennial.
This week: Thurs at Anoka, Sat vs. #8 Centennial

11. Prior Lake (12-6)
-The Lakers continued their string of fine defensive performances in wins over Bloomington Jefferson and Lakeville South, both of whom had beaten them back in December. That’s a good sign going forward for this team, though the road gets even tougher this week, as they face conference frontrunner Eagan. They lost their first game against the Wildcats 6-3, and haven’t given up more than two goals in their 11 games since. If they can keep that streak going, the rest of the section will have something to think about.
This week: Tues at Rosemount, Sat vs. #6 Eagan

12. Grand Rapids (12-4-3)
-The Thunderhawks cruised to victory over International Falls in their only game this past week, continuing their string of dominance over the Iron Range Conference. They play their last good AA regular season opponent this week, as they head out to Moorhead.
This week: Tues at Virginia, Sat at Moorhead

13. Eden Prairie (8-9-1)
-The record may not say the Eagles belong this high, but their performance on the ice of late suggests otherwise. Though they are 3-3 in January, all of those losses are to top seven teams, and two of the wins are over teams in the 10-15 range. They’re consistently competitive, and also avenged an earlier loss to Jefferson this week with a big win. They’re going to give someone a headache down that stretch, whether in Lake Conference play or in sections. This week they get Edina, who narrowly defeated them back in December.
This week: Thurs vs. #4 Edina, Sat vs. Hopkins

14. Elk River (12-8)
-The Elks got blown out by Benilde, but they bounced back and took out some anger on Anoka. Ugly as the loss was, they’re still holding steady with their routine of losing to all of the teams above them and beating the ones below them. The race for section seeding is so close that every game matters, so this week’s trip to play a decent Maple Grove team is a big one.
This week: Thurs at Maple Grove

15. Bloomington Jefferson (11-8)
-The Jaguars just went through something of a rough stretch, losing four in a row before snapping the skid against Bloomington Kennedy on Saturday. All of the losses were to good teams, but two of them were to teams they’d previously beaten, which is not the direction any team wants to be going this time of year. The next few games are a bit easier, which could allow them to get things back in order, though it’s certainly no walk in the park, especially with Eastview’s recent improvement.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Sat at Eastview

The Next Ten

Holy Family (13-4)
-Picked up three more wins, two coming against above average Class A teams, and drop out of the rankings only to accommodate Eden Prairie in the top 15. The week ahead is a big one, however; the Benilde game will be daunting, but it gives them a chance to make an impression on the rest of the section, and is their only remaining chance for a win over a top 25 AA team. After that, they play one of their better Wright County Conference opponents in Mound.

Cloquet (11-4-2)
-Weather wiped out the Lumberjacks’ key section battle with Andover, which will now take place on February 5. The week ahead features another weather-related make-up game, as they host Eden Prairie on Monday in contest that will be a big deal for their ranking, and they also face a tough test against Hermantown. Fun fact: Cloquet has won by at least three goals in each of its wins. Time to learn if that’s a sign of a dangerous offense, or merely the product of beating up on a bunch of weak opponents.

Eastview (11-7-1)
-A tie with Lakeville North slows some of the Lightning’s momentum upward, but they followed it up with a narrow loss to Burnsville. They’ll have a chance to move up again this week, as they look to make up for an ugly loss to Apple Valley the first time around, and also take a crack at Jefferson, who has been struggling of late.

Moorhead (10-8-1)
-The Spuds continue to take steps in the right direction, beating Roseau for a second time and slowly building their case as the class of a weak section. Their only game this week is against Grand Rapids, which will be a big chance for them to improve their credentials. The Brainerd loss is their only real ugly result, and though Brainerd would have a shot in a rematch, I wouldn’t expect the Spuds to give up six power play goals again, either.

White Bear Lake (9-8-1)
-A pair of big section wins have the Bears moving in the right direction, but a loss to Hastings sandwiched in between those two games keeps them from going any further. There is some interesting potential here, but they need to establish some consistency, and games against decent squads like Lakeville South and Forest Lake this week will be key in that regard.

Cretin-Derham Hall (12-6-1)
-The Raiders have quietly won seven of their last eight, and with Mounds View falling off, the Suburban East title is theirs to take if they can keep it up. This team is playing its way into a very high seed in 3AA as well. Park and Hastings are up this week.

Maple Grove (10-10)
-All things considered, the Crimson weathered their suspensions pretty well, and they still don’t have a bad loss. But aside from a holiday tournament game against slumping Jefferson, they don’t really have a quality win, either. They’re playing well enough to be relevant in 5AA, but will have to take it up a notch to be a truly dangerous team. A battle with Elk River this week could help boost their standing.

Roseau (11-7-1)
-Avenged an earlier loss to Brainerd, and also played Moorhead to another fairly tight loss. However, the offensive output has been surprisingly low in recent weeks, and they’ll need to get that going again if they want a shot in 8AA.

Brainerd (15-5)
-A loss to Roseau snapped the Warriors’ 11-game winning streak, and though they’ve proven they can beat anyone in the section, they really needed that Roseau game to be any sort of favorite in 8AA, or contender for the top 20. They should still be rewarded with a high seed, and should be able to close out the regular season with five more wins.

Lakeville South (8-10)
-The losses are starting to mount for the Cougars, who are also without the services of their leading scorer for some time. But they aren’t losing to anyone they aren’t supposed to lose to and they’re still the frontrunner in their section, so they edge out a clump of competitive SEC teams and Andover for the last spot.

1AA
(25) Lakeville South
Lakeville North
Rochester Mayo
Farmington
-No movement here, though the North-South rematch is finally upon us this week. If South wins, they’re guaranteed the top seed; if North wins it could go either way, but I’d probably give it to North; sure, South has a somewhat better record, but not dramatically so, and the later game should matter more. Rochester Mayo continues to plug along in the 3-spot, and might have some shot in sections if enough goes right; after that, Farmington is our default #4. Even by 1AA standards, this section is down; I’m not sure the state has ever had a section with its top two seeds under .500.
Important section game: 2/2 Lakeville North at Lakeville South

2AA
4 Edina
9 Burnsville
11 Prior Lake
15 Bloomington Jefferson
-Edina is #1 here, but 2-4 is still up in the air, and will rest on Burnsville’s games with Prior Lake and Jefferson in two weeks. If Prior Lake beats Burnsville for a second time, they are #2, and the Burnsville-Jefferson game should decide 3 vs. 4. If Burnsville wins both, they’d be #2, with PL at 3 and Jefferson at 4. If Burnsville beats PL but loses to Jefferson, it is a royal mess, with each team going 2-2 against one another; my inclination would then be to put Burnsville at 2, PL at 3, and Jefferson at 4, though every game down the stretch would matter.

3AA
6 Eagan
(18) Eastview
(21) Cretin-Derham Hall
-Eagan remains the obvious frontrunner in 3AA; while I won’t hand them the top seed with two potentially good section games left, they are clearly still the class of this section. Eastview has some quality wins, but they also have losses in the section to East Ridge, Apple Valley, and Rosemount, which could cost them the 2-seed if Cretin finishes strong. Hastings is also piling up a decent record, but with two losses to East Ridge, they may be stuck behind the Raptors as the 5-seed. With games against Cretin and Eagan left, they will have the opportunity to climb, however.
Important section games: 2/2 Cretin at Hastings, 2/7 Eagan at Hastings

4AA
1 Hill-Murray
(20) White Bear Lake
Mounds View
Roseville
-The top seed is Hill’s, but nothing much is settled beyond that. Mounds View and Stillwater, who had looked like possible 2 and 3 seeds a month ago, have been tanking lately. They both have some chances to restore order, but dropping out of the top four is possible as well. White Bear is marching upward after wins over Stillwater and Mounds View, and probably controls its own destiny for the 2-seed at the moment, though they’d have to beat Roseville and Stillwater to lock it up. Consistently decent Roseville has enough SEC games left to make a move as well. Tartan still looms as an unknown, and though I am skeptical of the Titans, the more the SEC teams beat up on each other, the higher they’ll climb. I’d put them around #5 right now.
Important section games: 2/2 Mounds View at Stillwater, 2/7 Stillwater at Roseville

5AA
10 Blaine
8 Centennial
(22) Maple Grove
Champlin Park
-Nothing has really changed here, though Centennial’s close win over Maple Grove and tie with Champlin Park suggest the final four could be pretty competitive. With two wins over Champlin, Maple Grove has sealed the 3-seed. The top spot will likely be decided this Saturday, though the Blaine-Maple Grove game in the final week of the season could conceivably shake things up.
Important section game: 2/2 Centennial at Blaine

6AA
2 Benilde
3 Minnetonka
5 Wayata
13 Eden Prairie
(16) Holy Family
-Wayzata’s loss to Minnetonka gives Benilde the upper hand for the top seed for now, though there are still so many Lake games left that a dominant run through the conference by Minnetonka might yet give them a good argument for the top seed. As it stands, I’d give the winner of the second Tonka-Wayzata game the upper hand for #2. The elephant in the room is Eden Prairie; while the 4-seed would appear to be the Eagles’ destiny at the moment, they still have games with all three of the big guns, and they have the talent to disrupt things if they go on a run. With EP improving lately, I don’t see Holy Family finishing in the top four unless they beat Benilde. A note of interest: 6AA has not had a repeat champion since Edina won this section four years in a row from 1995-98. Every other section—A and AA—has had one in the past four years.
Important section games: 1/30 Holy Family at Benilde, 2/7 Eden Prairie at Wayzata, 2/9 Benilde at Eden Prairie, 2/9 Wayzata at Minnetonka

7AA
7 Duluth East
12 Grand Rapids
(17) Cloquet
14 Elk River
-East should have the top spot locked up after beating Forest Lake. After that, let the debate begin: in spite of their section losses, I have Rapids at #2 due to their overall body of work. If Rapids is #2 right now, it makes little sense not to have a team that tied them twice right next to them, so Cloquet is #3; this relegates Elk River to #4 for now. Any changes in the top few will depend on Cloquet, as they are something of an unknown, and also play East and Andover on back-to-back nights in early February. Two wins could boost them to #2, while two losses could drop them to #5; a split would make the decision between them and Elk River for #3 go down to the wire. Right now, I’d have Forest Lake at 5 and Andover at 6, though Andover can climb with a win over Cloquet. There’s even an argument for dropping the Huskies behind St. Francis since St. Francis has a big section win, though I don’t think that will happen.
Important section games: 2/4 Duluth East at Cloquet, 2/5 Andover at Cloquet

8AA
(19) Moorhead
(23) Roseau
(24) Brainerd
-It looks like a three-team race here, and all three top teams have played each other twice. With a 3-1 record in those games, Moorhead would be the logical top seed; 2-2 Brainerd would follow in the second spot, and Roseau, at 1-3, would be third. Still, Roseau’s win over Brainerd this week shows their potential. All three still have games left against decent Bemidji, and there are a couple other opportunities for slip-ups here, so it isn’t quite set in stone yet. Still, I’d be surprised to see much movement.
Important section games: 2/1 Roseau at Bemidji, 2/9 Moorhead at Bemidji

[TennJed]

As usual, the most sensible of all rankings.Thanks.

[BlueLineSpecial]

As usual, the most sensible of all rankings.Thanks.

Couldn't. Agree. More.

Eagan intrigues me and I think they could be ranked a little higher. But I understand the whole Lake Conference dynamic. Its tough to knock a team down too many places when they are ranked in the top 10 and they lose a close game to a top 10 team (which is basically the entire Lake Conference season).

Thanks Karl. Great Sunday morning read!

[blueblood]

Regarding Section 2AA:

Edina will get #1 seed for the umpteenth time in a row

Jefferson will get the #4 seed - the are (1-4) aginst the top teams in SSC (Eagan, BV, PL) with a home game with BV remaining.

No other notable wins with non-conference losses to Wayzata, Ep and Centennial.

#2 and #3 are up for grabs between BV and PL, with BV having a slight edge right now, but the tougher remaining schedule.

BV is (1-2) against top SSC teams with games remaining at Jeff, at Eagan and host PL.

BV has beaten Blaine and Ep in non-confernce plsy.

PL is (2-2) against top SSC teams and a loss to Ep which keeps BV ahead for now.

FYI: Between BV, PL and Jeff; all four games have been won by home team and Eagan is a combined (4-0) vs. these teams.

1) Edina - locked in
2) BV - for now
3) PL - a win at BV will push them to the 2 seed
4) Jeff - locked in
5) AHA - leading Missota Conf
6) Kennedy - beat Chan; lost to Shako; decent overall record
7) Chan - beat Shako; lost to BK; ahead of Shako in Missota standings
Shako - beat BK, lost to Chan; no wins in Missota

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

A run of three section titles in a row is a notable achievement. Not terribly uncommon, but historically it's not an easy task. Runs of five or more are remarkable. I said a year ago that Edina is in the midst of such a run and that it won't last forever; not that I didn't favor them to win Section 2 last year. This year their dominance of the section doesn't seem quite as sure. They're still the odds on favorite, but there have been bigger section upsets than if they lose this year.

[scorekeeper]

Great job Karl. Thanks

[duluth dave]

Karl you duluth east traitor- how could they drop spots? Lets not forget they beat Edina 4 to 1 and Minnetonka 4 to 1. Those are high powered offences to shut down. And they have done nothing lately to diminish their record.

[PuckSwami]

8AA - Bemidji doesn't have much left. EGF handled them on Friday with a backup goalie and a few starters sitting. Bemidji seemed to have a pretty long bench of players in street clothes. EGF won 4-0, sweeping Bemidji for the season and outscoring them 9-0. Moorhead and Roseau should walk through their games with the Lumberjacks.

[BodyShots]

A disturbing trend.... add STA into the mix and the top three teams in the state are all privates.

Money can't buy love, but it can buy a pretty good hockey team.

[Tenoverpar]

Prediction #325

1AA- L South
2AA-Edina
3AA-Eagan
4AA-Eastside Empire
5AA-Blaine
6AA-BSM (6AA semi finals and final will be the best 3 games in the whole tournament)
7AA-Grand Rapids
8AA-Moorhead

Eastside Empire 5 V Moorhead 2
Edina 7 V L South 1
Eagan 3 v Blaine 2 (OT)
BSM 5 v G Rapids 4

Eastside Empire 3 v Eagan 4
(Eagan goes to the final a year after they were supposed too)
BSM 3 v Edina 5
(BSM simply out of gas after 5 straight barn burner games to get here)
Eagan 2 v Edina 3

Cake eating for everyone despite the all the defections to NTDP and BCHL

[observer]

defections to NTDP and BCHL

Pretty sure it's one to the BCHL (Nanne) and one to the WHL (Walker). No NTDP from Edina.

[Usthockey13]

You change section 7AA, East is going to Win. I bet GR doesnt even get to Section Champ game

Prediction #325

1AA- L South
2AA-Edina
3AA-Eagan
4AA-Eastside Empire
5AA-Blaine
6AA-BSM (6AA semi finals and final will be the best 3 games in the whole tournament)
7AA-Grand Rapids
8AA-Moorhead

Eastside Empire 5 V Moorhead 2
Edina 7 V L South 1
Eagan 3 v Blaine 2 (OT)
BSM 5 v G Rapids 4

Eastside Empire 3 v Eagan 4
(Eagan goes to the final a year after they were supposed too)
BSM 3 v Edina 5
(BSM simply out of gas after 5 straight barn burner games to get here)
Eagan 2 v Edina 3

Cake eating for everyone despite the all the defections to NTDP and BCHL

[Doc Holliday]

Regarding Section 2AA:

Edina will get #1 seed for the umpteenth time in a row

Jefferson will get the #4 seed - the are (1-4) aginst the top teams in SSC (Eagan, BV, PL) with a home game with BV remaining.

No other notable wins with non-conference losses to Wayzata, Ep and Centennial.

#2 and #3 are up for grabs between BV and PL, with BV having a slight edge right now, but the tougher remaining schedule.

BV is (1-2) against top SSC teams with games remaining at Jeff, at Eagan and host PL.

BV has beaten Blaine and Ep in non-confernce plsy.

PL is (2-2) against top SSC teams and a loss to Ep which keeps BV ahead for now.

FYI: Between BV, PL and Jeff; all four games have been won by home team and Eagan is a combined (4-0) vs. these teams.

1) Edina - locked in
2) BV - for now
3) PL - a win at BV will push them to the 2 seed
4) Jeff - locked in
5) AHA - leading Missota Conf
6) Kennedy - beat Chan; lost to Shako; decent overall record
7) Chan - beat Shako; lost to BK; ahead of Shako in Missota standings
Shako - beat BK, lost to Chan; no wins in Missota

2AA is interesting. I've always maintained that if someone in 2AA is going to beat Edina, it's going to be in the semis. You get them on the extra 15' & Edina is too skilled. Getting the #4 in 2AA isn't the worst thing.

Same with Benilde: You want to take down Benilde, you do it in the semis. BSM & EP has some upset potential to me if seeds go as they seem right now.

[karl(east)]

Karl you duluth east traitor- how could they drop spots? Lets not forget they beat Edina 4 to 1 and Minnetonka 4 to 1. Those are high powered offences to shut down. And they have done nothing lately to diminish their record.

Well. People have called me any number of things on this bored over the years, from a lover or hater of various teams to a hopelessly biased homer to my personal favorite title of "cyber bully." But I think this is the first time I've been called a traitor to East! There's a first time for everything, I suppose.

How could they drop spots? I think I made the case pretty clearly in the description. It wasn't their fault; it's just that other teams got big wins and deserved to move up because of them. In my rankings, simply winning one's games has never been a guarantee that a team will stay where they were the week before, and I don't plan to change that, either. Also, as I said in the comment, they could very easily be in the top 5 next week, while they are unlikely to go any lower than 7 without an ugly loss or two over the next few weeks. There are a lot of moving parts in the top 7, and someone has to draw the short straw every week--last week it was Edina, this week it's East, next week it may be Eagan or Wayzata or who knows who.

At this point, I don't think East fans should be too panicked about rankings. If you're a fan of this team and you've seen them play, you know they can beat anyone when they're on--though if you're honest, you'll also admit they've had a couple of losses they probably should have avoided, too. But you know that if they take care of business, they'll be back in St. Paul this March, and if they beat Tonka tomorrow, they'd have very good odds at a top-4 seed. They're in the top tier of teams, and that's what matters right now.

[almostashappy]

3AA
6 Eagan
(18 ) Eastview
(21) Cretin-Derham Hall
-Eagan remains the obvious frontrunner in 3AA; while I won’t hand them the top seed with two potentially good section games left, they are clearly still the class of this section. Eastview has some quality wins, but they also have losses in the section to East Ridge, Apple Valley, and Rosemount, which could cost them the 2-seed if Cretin finishes strong. Hastings is also piling up a decent record, but with two losses to East Ridge, they may be stuck behind the Raptors as the 5-seed. With games against Cretin and Eagan left, they will have the opportunity to climb, however.
Important section games: 2/2 Cretin at Hastings, 2/7 Eagan at Hastings

An ongoing tweet war over 7AA rankings looks to have spilled over into 3AA seeding discussion. followthepuck argues that head-to-head results and section records should matter more than overall records or any evaluation of strength-of-schedule. In 7AA this leads him to rank FL and St. Francis higher than Grand Rapids, while in 3AA the same logic places CDH higher than Eastview (he actually has EV ranked 5th, behind ER and Rosemount!). The Raiders are 6-0 in 3AA matchups, and will likely end up 8-0. Never mind that those 8 games are only against SEC opponents, and that they haven't played anyone on the SSC side of the section.

While I side with Karl and our gracious hosts up on Pokegama about big pictures and strength of schedules...even when there are head-to-head comparisons available...I'd expect CDH and their gaudy section record to get the #2 slot as things stand now. With the SEC having a slight 5-4 vote advantage over SSC in the seeding meeting, not unreasonable to figure that the best team from each conference will go 1-2.

[duluth dave]

Karl that was said in jest. I know what you mean in your rankings. East has laid a couple eggs-denfield and breck. As we said in other threads they may be lacking depth. But with those D Men and solid 1st line could be tough if they can get thru section 7 playoffs.

[Marty]

Tartan and White Bear had a very similar fate vs. Hill. Most years Tartan fits well with the Classic Suburban mix, this year seems different.

Hill is so well coached. So disciplined in all aspects of the game. All players are skating heads up, tape to tape passing, perfect angles of pursuit, few mistakes in their own D-zone ... the list goes on.

Losing top end players seems to have done little to slow them down.

God help Richfield. Maybe the flu will run through HM varisty and their JV can suit up and play.

[karl(east)]

Karl that was said in jest. I know what you mean in your rankings. East has laid a couple eggs-denfield and breck. As we said in other threads they may be lacking depth. But with those D Men and solid 1st line could be tough if they can get thru section 7 playoffs.

Alright, makes sense. (In general, if you want to make it clear you're just giving someone crap, I recommend using a or a or something of that sort.) I think there has been some progress on the lower lines in recent weeks, in spite of some injuries...we'll see how they hold up against Tonka tonight.

An ongoing tweet war over 7AA rankings looks to have spilled over into 3AA seeding discussion. followthepuck argues that head-to-head results and section records should matter more than overall records or any evaluation of strength-of-schedule. In 7AA this leads him to rank FL and St. Francis higher than Grand Rapids, while in 3AA the same logic places CDH higher than Eastview (he actually has EV ranked 5th, behind ER and Rosemount!). The Raiders are 6-0 in 3AA matchups, and will likely end up 8-0. Never mind that those 8 games are only against SEC opponents, and that they haven't played anyone on the SSC side of the section.

While I side with Karl and our gracious hosts up on Pokegama about big pictures and strength of schedules...even when there are head-to-head comparisons available...I'd expect CDH and their gaudy section record to get the #2 slot as things stand now. With the SEC having a slight 5-4 vote advantage over SSC in the seeding meeting, not unreasonable to figure that the best team from each conference will go 1-2.

Yeah, I'd have no quarrel with CDH being the 2-seed if they close out their SEC schedule on a high note. (And especially not if they give Edina a good run next week.) But the SEC has had a couple of teams seemingly rise to the top this season before falling off, and right now Eastview has a couple of big wins going for them, so that's why I had the Lightning still in the 2-spot.

Much as I appreciate the work Doug does at followthepuck, I respectfully disagree with his rigid "A beat B so A should be higher" logic. It is straightforward and defensible, whereas the arguments for, say, putting GR ahead of Flake can get long-winded and spun in a number of ways. But the facts don't lie: the computerized rankings almost always out-perform these human attempts to justify things when it comes to predicting playoff outcomes. At the same time, I'm not really a fan of going to a computerized ranking system for seeds, since there is so much they do not know, and sometimes spit out something odd (like Tartan in the top ten in KRACH, for example). My aim here is for some sort of hybrid.

2AA is interesting. I've always maintained that if someone in 2AA is going to beat Edina, it's going to be in the semis. You get them on the extra 15' & Edina is too skilled. Getting the #4 in 2AA isn't the worst thing.

Same with Benilde: You want to take down Benilde, you do it in the semis. BSM & EP has some upset potential to me if seeds go as they seem right now.

This certainly could be the case. It's made even more glaring by the fact that some of the teams best positioned for upsets in both sections (Wayzata, Prior Lake, and to some extent Minnetonka) are very much defense-first teams that might struggle to hang with Edina or BSM in a wide-open game. Though in Wayzata's defense, they do play their home games on a big sheet, so they at least have some experience with that factor.

[Wallyworld]

Thanks Karl,

What's impressive to me about Hill is that with arguably as difficult a schedule as anyone to this point (according to 2 different online rankings) they only have the two losses - and one, STA, was a tough loss because Lechner decided to bench the 1st line Center and change the Center on every single line on down when they were heading into the third clinging to a 1-0 lead, only to lose 2-1.. They went on to beat STA the next two times so for what it's worth..

Still, my point is that most of the top teams have 4 losses (as do 8 of top 17 or 47%) like that's the magic loss number for some reason.. So two losses with that schedule, including a Shwann's Cup championship is impressive especially when you look at the lines and D. First line has been up and down and often disappears while the second line just recently started clicking and third is usually a wash.. Beyond top pair of D they are relatively weak after going through that experience last year where several F's turned to D because they only had one returning D - the effects are still felt though Jacob Olson shows promise as a Soph... But it seems like Lechner molds these guys every year like this and gets them to play as a team.. The heart of this team though is Dugas who showed last Thurs against STA's Zevnik that he is the best G in the state. 1.33 GAA and .945 Save % and 5 shutouts with that schedule (unfortunate that hill let down and gave up that gaol with 30 seconds left Thurs. Would have been nice for Dug's to get that shutout against STA)...

The scary things for Hill fans is that a mediocre game by Dugas, against any top 10 team (or in sectionals) and Hill likely loses, so it will be a precarious stretch run... I just can't picture Hill winning it all. Some team will get on a hot streak as Hill did last year and likely surprise us a bit.... Maybe a Duluth or Edina or BSM and watch out for dark horses Eagan, Blaine & a healthy Rapids team.. That's what I love about State. Who would have predicted Hill dominating MG or sneaking by Bitzer & Moorhead after beating them 6-1 just a couple of weeks before. Or Lakeville topping Duluth East only to get demolished by BSM.. No seeding for my team, thank you....

[east hockey]

Well. People have called me any number of things on this bored over the years, from a lover or hater of various teams to a hopelessly biased homer to my personal favorite title of "cyber bully." But I think this is the first time I've been called a traitor to East! There's a first time for everything, I suppose.

How could they drop spots? I think I made the case pretty clearly in the description. It wasn't their fault; it's just that other teams got big wins and deserved to move up because of them. In my rankings, simply winning one's games has never been a guarantee that a team will stay where they were the week before, and I don't plan to change that, either. Also, as I said in the comment, they could very easily be in the top 5 next week, while they are unlikely to go any lower than 7 without an ugly loss or two over the next few weeks. There are a lot of moving parts in the top 7, and someone has to draw the short straw every week--last week it was Edina, this week it's East, next week it may be Eagan or Wayzata or who knows who.

At this point, I don't think East fans should be too panicked about rankings. If you're a fan of this team and you've seen them play, you know they can beat anyone when they're on--though if you're honest, you'll also admit they've had a couple of losses they probably should have avoided, too. But you know that if they take care of business, they'll be back in St. Paul this March, and if they beat Tonka tomorrow, they'd have very good odds at a top-4 seed. They're in the top tier of teams, and that's what matters right now.

Hmph. Not impressed. Come talk to me when someone has proven Godwin's Law true with respect to you.

Lee

[Metrohockeyfan]

Karl you duluth east traitor- how could they drop spots? Lets not forget they beat Edina 4 to 1 and Minnetonka 4 to 1. Those are high powered offences to shut down. And they have done nothing lately to diminish their record.

We all know Minnetonka is the better team. East has just been getting lucky because of their home ice advantages. I think Duluth Dave here is just clinging on a little too strongly to the past. I gotta agree with the rankings above for the most part. Good job, Karl!

I'm gonna disagree with Mike here. IMO the Duluth defense is stronger then Tonka's, with goaltending and offensive production being about even, I'd give the edge to East. They did get the better of the Skippers tonight.

[allstatebenders]

Karl you duluth east traitor- how could they drop spots? Lets not forget they beat Edina 4 to 1 and Minnetonka 4 to 1. Those are high powered offences to shut down. And they have done nothing lately to diminish their record.

We all know Minnetonka is the better team. East has just been getting lucky because of their home ice advantages. I think Duluth Dave here is just clinging on a little too strongly to the past. I gotta agree with the rankings above for the most part. Good job, Karl!

I understand if you're sad Minnetonka has gotten outplayed by East two games this season, but please don't state "we all know Minnetonka is the better team". Clearly not true after they got dismantled by the Hounds not once, but twice.

[tonkafan77]

I wouldn't say Minnetonka is the better team but I also wouldn't say they got dismantled last night. They're pretty comparable teams and I hope they see eachother again in the state tournament.

East is a very physical team and Tonka was missing two of their most physical players last night (Thie and McNeil). Not saying this would've changed the outcome significantly or even at all, I'm just saying these two teams are very similar in skill level.

Now, Tonka has to go out and kill the second half of the lake conference schedule to prove they still belong at the top, cause they do.

[Hounds19]

Karl you duluth east traitor- how could they drop spots? Lets not forget they beat Edina 4 to 1 and Minnetonka 4 to 1. Those are high powered offences to shut down. And they have done nothing lately to diminish their record.

We all know Minnetonka is the better team. East has just been getting lucky because of their home ice advantages. I think Duluth Dave here is just clinging on a little too strongly to the past. I gotta agree with the rankings above for the most part. Good job, Karl!

I understand if you're sad Minnetonka has gotten outplayed by East two games this season, but please don't state "we all know Minnetonka is the better team". Clearly not true after they got dismantled by the Hounds not once, but twice.

Although i was also upset with east dropping (mainly because i played for them) but karl has a point, they had a couple easy wins and other big teams with bigger games won, so he has a point. no need to worry though, as long as meirsy can gett scoring hattys against teams like tonka and their d keeps up the good work they will be in good shape come march

[duluth dave]

Well next week will have knew rankings to ponder-as karl said rankings dont really matter. But its a great game that brings out a lot of emotion in fans.