Class A Rankings 1-6-13
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Class A Rankings 1-6-13
The first rankings of the new year; Happy New Year everyone!
With so few games played, and no results that were unexpected this past week, the only change from last week was a one spot switch. There are many very important games this week, some that could have huge implications for both ranking and section seeding. Good luck to all teams.
I'm looking for thoughts/opinions on things after #7. #12-#15 seem to be in a good order, but all of them are really a best guess based on what I see on their schedule. I'd also like some discussion on what to do next week if Totino beats Breck or if Mankato West beats Lourdes this week. There are some other interesting games, like Cathedral/Hermantown and Wright County games, but those are the big ones.
Happy Discussion!
1. [1] Saint Thomas Academy (10-1-1)
The Cadets start their week shutting out Mahtomedi, but follow that up by allowing 2 goals to Tartan, more goals than they have allowed in all but two games this season. Two big games this week; a home game against last year’s AA state champs BSM and then travel to Duluth on Saturday to continue their rivalry with the Hilltoppers.
This week: Thurs vs Benilde-St Margaret’s, Sat @ #6 Duluth Marshall
2. [2] East Grand Forks (11-0-2)
The Green Wave own a top 2 ranking, and likely seed at state, as long as they keep the 0 in their loss column. They could even get up to #1 if St Thomas stumbles this season. Although, if they add a loss to their record, they could fall out of the top 3 because of who they play. This week they play a 3 win team and follow that up with a team they have beaten this season, although they are also one of four they have gone to OT with. There is one week left on their schedule with only easy games, and that week isn’t for five weeks.
This week: Thurs vs Red Lake Falls, Sat @ Grand Forks Central
3. [3] Breck (7-2-1)
The Mustangs continue to show their dominance this week beating Lourdes 7-2 and notching two more wins. Two away games this week, including against a team some have ranked as the #2 team in Class A, Totino-Grace. Clearly a top team in the state; of their remaining 15 games, 5 are against quality opponents.
This week: Tues @ #4 Totino-Grace, Thurs @ Minnehaha Academy
4. [5] Totino-Grace (7-1-1)
The Eagles’ one game this past week was a dominating win over Duluth Marshall, showing they definitely are a top team in state. Having only played 9 of their 26 games thus far, they have 18 games left, although only 6 of them will likely be anywhere near competitive. In their next 8 games, the only one that fits that bill happens Tuesday at home against Breck. With their having tied EGF earlier this season, a win over Breck could give justification for them to be #2 next week. The 5-1 loss to Holy Family concerns me, but they are clearly a solid team.
This week: Tues vs #3 Breck, Thurs vs Robbinsdale Cooper, Sat vs Spring Lake Park
5. [4] Hermantown (10-1-1)
With probably the top scoring line in the state, the Hawks have no problem scoring goals. At they hit the second half of their schedule, though, allowing goals is likely going to be their biggest issue as they start to play more teams who can get quality shots on goal. They have two goalies who seem to be basically splitting time and neither has a save percentage about 90%. In fact, the one with more minutes has the lower save percentage, under 87.5%. If they can manage to simply score more than the other offense, as they did against Marshall, or stop goals from getting to the goalie, only allowed 4 shots on goal to International Falls, then they should be able to play with anyone. Three games this week against three quality opponents, the two against Class A competition are on the road. Big section match up with Cathedral on Friday, should be a big week for the Hawks.
This week: Tues vs Grand Rapids, Fri @ #15 St Cloud Cathedral, Sat @ #8 Little Falls
6. [6] Duluth Marshall (7-6)
The Hilltoppers have 6 losses this season, but all are to good AA teams, a WI team or to Class A competition ranked above them. Their games with the #2 and #5 teams were both 1 goal losses. What they are lacking, though, is a quality win. Can they get one this week? They host the #7 WI team as well as the top Class A team. If they can play like they did against Hermantown, maybe they can manage a win or two; if they play like they did against Totino, they will likely be under .500 by the end of the week.
This week: Thurs vs Superior (WI), Sat vs #1 Saint Thomas Academy
7. [7] Rochester Lourdes (7-4)
The Eagles had two losses last week were to #2 Breck and a decent WI team. They do have a win over Cathedral on their schedule, but no other top teams and after getting dismantled by two top teams, the Eagles will be on the outside looking in for until they can prove more. This week they play host to two quality Class A opponents and travel to play a game that may have state seeding implications. At the moment, the top seed in section 1A is up for grabs and will likely be determined on Tuesday.
This week: Tues vs Mankato West, Thurs @ New Ulm, Sat vs Delano
8. [8] Little Falls (10-2)
In 8 of the 12 games the Fliers have played, they have allowed 1 or 0 goals led by a senior tender who is top 5 in the state in both save percentage and GAA. They did start the season with some quality wins over 7A teams, but since have put up scores that leave one to question how they will do against some of the better teams in the state. They host Hermantown this week as well as playing Apollo once and Cathedral twice in the only four remaining games this season where they should be challenged at all. They seem to be a well-rounded scoring team with 7 players with 9 or more points and none with more than 25. Likely the favorite to win their section, but will not be a seeded team unless they can win 2 or 3 of the 4 remaining quality games on their schedule.
This week: Tues @ Sauk Rapids-Rice, Sat vs #5 Hermantown
9. [9] Hibbing (8-6)
While there is one question mark on their schedule with a close loss to Chisago Lakes, the Blue Jackets have gone to OT with Marshall and I doubt anyone would be surprised to see them playing in the 7A final. Currently on a 4 game win streak, 2 of their next three opponents are also in their section.
This week: Tues @ Cloquet, Sat vs Virginia
10. [10] Mahtomedi (7-5)
They didn’t score any goals in their loss to St Thomas, but they also only allowed three goals to them as well. Having lost by a goal to Hibbing recently, but lost in OT to Breck earlier this season, the Zephyrs are clearly a good team and will be contending for third in the Classic Suburban with Tartan. It’s not likely they’ll win on Tuesday, but they could add two more wins to their total this week.
This week: Tues @ Hill-Murray, Thurs vs North St Paul, Sat vs South St Paul
11. [11] Denfeld (10-4)
The Hunters have three one goal losses on their schedule as well as wins over Virginia, Hermantown and International Falls. They have an interesting schedule with not playing many top teams and they ones they do don’t show up until later in the season. Their wins and how close their losses have been show they will likely be in the majority of the games they play. Can they keep it close with East this week?
This week: Tues vs Duluth East, Fri @ Proctor
12. [12] Warroad (10-2-1)
With close wins over Thief River Falls and Cathedral as well as a tie with International Falls, the Warriors seem to be right about where they should be in the rankings. They played EGF close and few would be surprised to see them make some noise come section time. All of their remaining opponents are from sections 7 and 8, so they could definitely tally up quite a few wins before section play. How will they do in their rivalry with Roseau this week?
This week: Thurs vs Roseau, Sat @ Crookston
13. [13] International Falls (4-4-4)
All three of the Broncos losses have come against teams ranked above them. Two of their ties, though, are to teams they likely should’ve beaten if the results of the rest of their schedule are any indication. They are 0-2-2 in sectional play thus far and play, although they still play every team in their section aside from Duluth Marshall, who they don’t have on their schedule. At the moment, it looks as though they could end up with literally any seed in their section. With three section opponents this week, they have an opportunity to hopefully pick up a couple section wins.
This week: Tues @ Virginia, Fri @ Greenway, Sat @ North Shore
14. [14] Thief River Falls (6-6)
After starting the season 2-6 with 4 losses to teams ranked above them (and the rest to AA teams), the Prowlers have won the last 4 games in a row. The defending 8A champion has only played one of their four games against Warroad and East Grand Forks thus far which was an OT loss. They play what should be two easy games this week and follow that up with two away games against both Warroad and East Grand Forks next week. The Prowlers started the season as a preseason top 10 team and are in control of their opportunity to make it back to the state tournament.
This week: Tues vs Park Rapids, Thurs vs Crookston
15. [15] St. Cloud Cathedral (8-6)
The Crusaders have had an interesting season; an early stretch of 5 games with wins over Breck and Delano but losses from EGF, Lourdes and Princeton. Recently they have lost to Warroad in OT and Holy Family. They will likely be in every game they play this season, but have shown they can lose close games. If they can win on Friday, they could potentially be the top seed in section 5A, but with their early loss to Princeton, they could fall as far as the 3rd seed.
This week: Fri vs #5 Hermantown
On the outside:
Princeton (12-2)
Princeton is leading the state in scoring with 92 goals, as one of only two teams with more than 80 goals. They have 2 skaters with over 30 points, 4 over 25, and 10 with over 10 points. When you look and see that 51 of those goals have come in 4 games, though, they are averaging 4.5 goals a game in the other 9 games, instead of the 7.1 they are averaging on the season with those games included. Regardless of how you look at it, they can score, and will continue to. This Thursday they travel to Oakdale where their scorers will be tested against a good Tartan goalie. They will likely only be tested four more times this season against Tartan, Little Falls, Delano and Cathedral. If they can beat both Rogers and Cathedral again, could they get the 2nd seed in section 5A?
Thurs @ Tartan, Sat vs Luverne
Mankato West (11-2)
The Scarlets are an interesting story this season. As I reported last week, they have two skaters with over 30 points, none of their 7 skaters with over 10 points are seniors and neither of their goalies are seniors. Regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s game in Rochester, they will be in the section final game and likely the favorite in the section to start the year next season. What is so tough about them, though, is that Delano and Lourdes are the only notable MN teams on their schedule in either class. Both Hibbing and Virginia have now beaten the team who has given them their one MN loss. They play Mayo again in a month, but between now and then 7 games that should be easy wins for them and another 3 easy wins to follow before sections. It would be hard to argue with anyone say they should be a top 10 team, but also hard to argue that they shouldn’t be ranked. Tuesday’s game will hopefully tell us a lot about them. It appears as though the vast majority of their schedule are conference or sectional games; is there a way they could schedule some more quality opponents for next season when many of their top players will be seniors?
This week: Tues @ #7 Rochester Lourdes, Thurs @ Mankato East
Delano (8-5)
The Tigers have a season with no quality wins, but every loss they have came against a team ranked higher than them. They play a good Wright County schedule, which should prepare them well for sectional play. With their 2-goal loss to Breck and two games against Mound-Westonka to come, it apprears the 2nd seed in section 2A is theirs to lose.
This week: Tues vs Orono, Sat @ #7 Rochester Lourdes
Orono (9-3-1)
The Spartans are difficult to rank with few games against other competitive Class A teams on their schedule. They have few losses and a win over Denfeld. With 6 wins in their last 7 games, they too begin Wright County play and it will likely come down to them and Delano for both 2nd place in the conference as well as the 2nd seed in section 2A.
This week: Tues @ Delano, Fri vs Mound-Westonka
Virginia (3-9-1)
A very solid case could be made for having this team with 9 losses actually ranked as all of their losses are either to AA teams or teams ranked in my top 12, as well as tying my #13 team. Their most recent game was a win over the one MN team who’s beaten Mankato West. Their schedule allows for them to get a handful of wins in the next few weeks before ending the season with 4 of their last 5 games being against quality opponents.
This week: Tues vs International Falls, Sat @ Hibbing
With so few games played, and no results that were unexpected this past week, the only change from last week was a one spot switch. There are many very important games this week, some that could have huge implications for both ranking and section seeding. Good luck to all teams.
I'm looking for thoughts/opinions on things after #7. #12-#15 seem to be in a good order, but all of them are really a best guess based on what I see on their schedule. I'd also like some discussion on what to do next week if Totino beats Breck or if Mankato West beats Lourdes this week. There are some other interesting games, like Cathedral/Hermantown and Wright County games, but those are the big ones.
Happy Discussion!
1. [1] Saint Thomas Academy (10-1-1)
The Cadets start their week shutting out Mahtomedi, but follow that up by allowing 2 goals to Tartan, more goals than they have allowed in all but two games this season. Two big games this week; a home game against last year’s AA state champs BSM and then travel to Duluth on Saturday to continue their rivalry with the Hilltoppers.
This week: Thurs vs Benilde-St Margaret’s, Sat @ #6 Duluth Marshall
2. [2] East Grand Forks (11-0-2)
The Green Wave own a top 2 ranking, and likely seed at state, as long as they keep the 0 in their loss column. They could even get up to #1 if St Thomas stumbles this season. Although, if they add a loss to their record, they could fall out of the top 3 because of who they play. This week they play a 3 win team and follow that up with a team they have beaten this season, although they are also one of four they have gone to OT with. There is one week left on their schedule with only easy games, and that week isn’t for five weeks.
This week: Thurs vs Red Lake Falls, Sat @ Grand Forks Central
3. [3] Breck (7-2-1)
The Mustangs continue to show their dominance this week beating Lourdes 7-2 and notching two more wins. Two away games this week, including against a team some have ranked as the #2 team in Class A, Totino-Grace. Clearly a top team in the state; of their remaining 15 games, 5 are against quality opponents.
This week: Tues @ #4 Totino-Grace, Thurs @ Minnehaha Academy
4. [5] Totino-Grace (7-1-1)
The Eagles’ one game this past week was a dominating win over Duluth Marshall, showing they definitely are a top team in state. Having only played 9 of their 26 games thus far, they have 18 games left, although only 6 of them will likely be anywhere near competitive. In their next 8 games, the only one that fits that bill happens Tuesday at home against Breck. With their having tied EGF earlier this season, a win over Breck could give justification for them to be #2 next week. The 5-1 loss to Holy Family concerns me, but they are clearly a solid team.
This week: Tues vs #3 Breck, Thurs vs Robbinsdale Cooper, Sat vs Spring Lake Park
5. [4] Hermantown (10-1-1)
With probably the top scoring line in the state, the Hawks have no problem scoring goals. At they hit the second half of their schedule, though, allowing goals is likely going to be their biggest issue as they start to play more teams who can get quality shots on goal. They have two goalies who seem to be basically splitting time and neither has a save percentage about 90%. In fact, the one with more minutes has the lower save percentage, under 87.5%. If they can manage to simply score more than the other offense, as they did against Marshall, or stop goals from getting to the goalie, only allowed 4 shots on goal to International Falls, then they should be able to play with anyone. Three games this week against three quality opponents, the two against Class A competition are on the road. Big section match up with Cathedral on Friday, should be a big week for the Hawks.
This week: Tues vs Grand Rapids, Fri @ #15 St Cloud Cathedral, Sat @ #8 Little Falls
6. [6] Duluth Marshall (7-6)
The Hilltoppers have 6 losses this season, but all are to good AA teams, a WI team or to Class A competition ranked above them. Their games with the #2 and #5 teams were both 1 goal losses. What they are lacking, though, is a quality win. Can they get one this week? They host the #7 WI team as well as the top Class A team. If they can play like they did against Hermantown, maybe they can manage a win or two; if they play like they did against Totino, they will likely be under .500 by the end of the week.
This week: Thurs vs Superior (WI), Sat vs #1 Saint Thomas Academy
7. [7] Rochester Lourdes (7-4)
The Eagles had two losses last week were to #2 Breck and a decent WI team. They do have a win over Cathedral on their schedule, but no other top teams and after getting dismantled by two top teams, the Eagles will be on the outside looking in for until they can prove more. This week they play host to two quality Class A opponents and travel to play a game that may have state seeding implications. At the moment, the top seed in section 1A is up for grabs and will likely be determined on Tuesday.
This week: Tues vs Mankato West, Thurs @ New Ulm, Sat vs Delano
8. [8] Little Falls (10-2)
In 8 of the 12 games the Fliers have played, they have allowed 1 or 0 goals led by a senior tender who is top 5 in the state in both save percentage and GAA. They did start the season with some quality wins over 7A teams, but since have put up scores that leave one to question how they will do against some of the better teams in the state. They host Hermantown this week as well as playing Apollo once and Cathedral twice in the only four remaining games this season where they should be challenged at all. They seem to be a well-rounded scoring team with 7 players with 9 or more points and none with more than 25. Likely the favorite to win their section, but will not be a seeded team unless they can win 2 or 3 of the 4 remaining quality games on their schedule.
This week: Tues @ Sauk Rapids-Rice, Sat vs #5 Hermantown
9. [9] Hibbing (8-6)
While there is one question mark on their schedule with a close loss to Chisago Lakes, the Blue Jackets have gone to OT with Marshall and I doubt anyone would be surprised to see them playing in the 7A final. Currently on a 4 game win streak, 2 of their next three opponents are also in their section.
This week: Tues @ Cloquet, Sat vs Virginia
10. [10] Mahtomedi (7-5)
They didn’t score any goals in their loss to St Thomas, but they also only allowed three goals to them as well. Having lost by a goal to Hibbing recently, but lost in OT to Breck earlier this season, the Zephyrs are clearly a good team and will be contending for third in the Classic Suburban with Tartan. It’s not likely they’ll win on Tuesday, but they could add two more wins to their total this week.
This week: Tues @ Hill-Murray, Thurs vs North St Paul, Sat vs South St Paul
11. [11] Denfeld (10-4)
The Hunters have three one goal losses on their schedule as well as wins over Virginia, Hermantown and International Falls. They have an interesting schedule with not playing many top teams and they ones they do don’t show up until later in the season. Their wins and how close their losses have been show they will likely be in the majority of the games they play. Can they keep it close with East this week?
This week: Tues vs Duluth East, Fri @ Proctor
12. [12] Warroad (10-2-1)
With close wins over Thief River Falls and Cathedral as well as a tie with International Falls, the Warriors seem to be right about where they should be in the rankings. They played EGF close and few would be surprised to see them make some noise come section time. All of their remaining opponents are from sections 7 and 8, so they could definitely tally up quite a few wins before section play. How will they do in their rivalry with Roseau this week?
This week: Thurs vs Roseau, Sat @ Crookston
13. [13] International Falls (4-4-4)
All three of the Broncos losses have come against teams ranked above them. Two of their ties, though, are to teams they likely should’ve beaten if the results of the rest of their schedule are any indication. They are 0-2-2 in sectional play thus far and play, although they still play every team in their section aside from Duluth Marshall, who they don’t have on their schedule. At the moment, it looks as though they could end up with literally any seed in their section. With three section opponents this week, they have an opportunity to hopefully pick up a couple section wins.
This week: Tues @ Virginia, Fri @ Greenway, Sat @ North Shore
14. [14] Thief River Falls (6-6)
After starting the season 2-6 with 4 losses to teams ranked above them (and the rest to AA teams), the Prowlers have won the last 4 games in a row. The defending 8A champion has only played one of their four games against Warroad and East Grand Forks thus far which was an OT loss. They play what should be two easy games this week and follow that up with two away games against both Warroad and East Grand Forks next week. The Prowlers started the season as a preseason top 10 team and are in control of their opportunity to make it back to the state tournament.
This week: Tues vs Park Rapids, Thurs vs Crookston
15. [15] St. Cloud Cathedral (8-6)
The Crusaders have had an interesting season; an early stretch of 5 games with wins over Breck and Delano but losses from EGF, Lourdes and Princeton. Recently they have lost to Warroad in OT and Holy Family. They will likely be in every game they play this season, but have shown they can lose close games. If they can win on Friday, they could potentially be the top seed in section 5A, but with their early loss to Princeton, they could fall as far as the 3rd seed.
This week: Fri vs #5 Hermantown
On the outside:
Princeton (12-2)
Princeton is leading the state in scoring with 92 goals, as one of only two teams with more than 80 goals. They have 2 skaters with over 30 points, 4 over 25, and 10 with over 10 points. When you look and see that 51 of those goals have come in 4 games, though, they are averaging 4.5 goals a game in the other 9 games, instead of the 7.1 they are averaging on the season with those games included. Regardless of how you look at it, they can score, and will continue to. This Thursday they travel to Oakdale where their scorers will be tested against a good Tartan goalie. They will likely only be tested four more times this season against Tartan, Little Falls, Delano and Cathedral. If they can beat both Rogers and Cathedral again, could they get the 2nd seed in section 5A?
Thurs @ Tartan, Sat vs Luverne
Mankato West (11-2)
The Scarlets are an interesting story this season. As I reported last week, they have two skaters with over 30 points, none of their 7 skaters with over 10 points are seniors and neither of their goalies are seniors. Regardless of the outcome of Tuesday’s game in Rochester, they will be in the section final game and likely the favorite in the section to start the year next season. What is so tough about them, though, is that Delano and Lourdes are the only notable MN teams on their schedule in either class. Both Hibbing and Virginia have now beaten the team who has given them their one MN loss. They play Mayo again in a month, but between now and then 7 games that should be easy wins for them and another 3 easy wins to follow before sections. It would be hard to argue with anyone say they should be a top 10 team, but also hard to argue that they shouldn’t be ranked. Tuesday’s game will hopefully tell us a lot about them. It appears as though the vast majority of their schedule are conference or sectional games; is there a way they could schedule some more quality opponents for next season when many of their top players will be seniors?
This week: Tues @ #7 Rochester Lourdes, Thurs @ Mankato East
Delano (8-5)
The Tigers have a season with no quality wins, but every loss they have came against a team ranked higher than them. They play a good Wright County schedule, which should prepare them well for sectional play. With their 2-goal loss to Breck and two games against Mound-Westonka to come, it apprears the 2nd seed in section 2A is theirs to lose.
This week: Tues vs Orono, Sat @ #7 Rochester Lourdes
Orono (9-3-1)
The Spartans are difficult to rank with few games against other competitive Class A teams on their schedule. They have few losses and a win over Denfeld. With 6 wins in their last 7 games, they too begin Wright County play and it will likely come down to them and Delano for both 2nd place in the conference as well as the 2nd seed in section 2A.
This week: Tues @ Delano, Fri vs Mound-Westonka
Virginia (3-9-1)
A very solid case could be made for having this team with 9 losses actually ranked as all of their losses are either to AA teams or teams ranked in my top 12, as well as tying my #13 team. Their most recent game was a win over the one MN team who’s beaten Mankato West. Their schedule allows for them to get a handful of wins in the next few weeks before ending the season with 4 of their last 5 games being against quality opponents.
This week: Tues vs International Falls, Sat @ Hibbing
Last edited by HShockeywatcher on Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Curious what people think of the 7-12 teams...
Obviously people think Warroad's too low, and with a win over a rival who beat Hibbing this season, they'll definitely go up at least a couple spots. Ahead of Lourdes?
Is Little Falls too high? Or is their early win over Hibbing still reason to keep them up?
Thoughts on Denfeld...they have beaten both East and Hermantown this season and their only Class A blemish is to Orono by a goal 12 games ago. Three of their 4 losses have been by 1 goal. Are they for real? Are they top 5 material? Their schedule is difficult to compare with others around them in the rankings.
Two of Mahtomedi's last three games were against STA and HM; they held the Cadets to 3 goals and they scored more goals against HM as any team has this year has. They have an early OT loss to Breck and recently lost in Hibbing by a goal.
Thanks everyone!
Obviously people think Warroad's too low, and with a win over a rival who beat Hibbing this season, they'll definitely go up at least a couple spots. Ahead of Lourdes?
Is Little Falls too high? Or is their early win over Hibbing still reason to keep them up?
Thoughts on Denfeld...they have beaten both East and Hermantown this season and their only Class A blemish is to Orono by a goal 12 games ago. Three of their 4 losses have been by 1 goal. Are they for real? Are they top 5 material? Their schedule is difficult to compare with others around them in the rankings.
Two of Mahtomedi's last three games were against STA and HM; they held the Cadets to 3 goals and they scored more goals against HM as any team has this year has. They have an early OT loss to Breck and recently lost in Hibbing by a goal.
Thanks everyone!
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Re: Class A Rankings 1-6-13
I have to give you props, hshockeywatcher, for this week's rankings. I pretty much agree with most of it.
I'll offer my thoughts on Duluth Denfeld and Little Falls as well. They will both go as far as their goaltenders take them. If they are off, their teams will struggle, maybe even more so with Little Falls. Both teams have enough capable forwards to score if their goaltender can keep them in the game. Both seem to be subpar on the defensive side, but on most nights can get away with it.
To me, at this point, 6 through 15 in your rankings are all pretty much interchangeable, so where they fall will be a matter of personal opinion. All can beat one another on any given night. You can probably throw in a couple of outside teams with that as well.
I have to agree with this as well. Not a top ten team by any means, but they certainly should be on the radar. They were missing their starting goalie at the start of the year, and also had half of the team out with the flu during their holiday tourney games, which explains a few of the off results. Also, according to the strength of schedule rankings (http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS.htm) only STA, Breck, and Duluth Marshall have played a tougher schedule in class A thus far and they have been in most of their games right til the end. And since you posted this, they have now beaten and tied your #13 team, so that certainly doesn't appear to be a fluke.HShockeywatcher wrote:Virginia (3-9-1)
A very solid case could be made for having this team with 9 losses actually ranked as all of their losses are either to AA teams or teams ranked in my top 12, as well as tying my #13 team. Their most recent game was a win over the one MN team who’s beaten Mankato West. Their schedule allows for them to get a handful of wins in the next few weeks before ending the season with 4 of their last 5 games being against quality opponents.
This week: Tues vs International Falls, Sat @ Hibbing
I'll offer my thoughts on Duluth Denfeld and Little Falls as well. They will both go as far as their goaltenders take them. If they are off, their teams will struggle, maybe even more so with Little Falls. Both teams have enough capable forwards to score if their goaltender can keep them in the game. Both seem to be subpar on the defensive side, but on most nights can get away with it.
To me, at this point, 6 through 15 in your rankings are all pretty much interchangeable, so where they fall will be a matter of personal opinion. All can beat one another on any given night. You can probably throw in a couple of outside teams with that as well.
Re: Class A Rankings 1-6-13
Yeah Ill weigh in on Denfeld and Little Falls, Denfeld would beat them by 4.PuckRanger wrote:I have to give you props, hshockeywatcher, for this week's rankings. I pretty much agree with most of it.
I have to agree with this as well. Not a top ten team by any means, but they certainly should be on the radar. They were missing their starting goalie at the start of the year, and also had half of the team out with the flu during their holiday tourney games, which explains a few of the off results. Also, according to the strength of schedule rankings (http://www.bgoski.com/b/KRACH_SOS.htm) only STA, Breck, and Duluth Marshall have played a tougher schedule in class A thus far and they have been in most of their games right til the end. And since you posted this, they have now beaten and tied your #13 team, so that certainly doesn't appear to be a fluke.HShockeywatcher wrote:Virginia (3-9-1)
A very solid case could be made for having this team with 9 losses actually ranked as all of their losses are either to AA teams or teams ranked in my top 12, as well as tying my #13 team. Their most recent game was a win over the one MN team who’s beaten Mankato West. Their schedule allows for them to get a handful of wins in the next few weeks before ending the season with 4 of their last 5 games being against quality opponents.
This week: Tues vs International Falls, Sat @ Hibbing
I'll offer my thoughts on Duluth Denfeld and Little Falls as well. They will both go as far as their goaltenders take them. If they are off, their teams will struggle, maybe even more so with Little Falls. Both teams have enough capable forwards to score if their goaltender can keep them in the game. Both seem to be subpar on the defensive side, but on most nights can get away with it.
To me, at this point, 6 through 15 in your rankings are all pretty much interchangeable, so where they fall will be a matter of personal opinion. All can beat one another on any given night. You can probably throw in a couple of outside teams with that as well.
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Re: Class A Rankings 1-6-13
Highly unlikely given that of Denfeld's 11 wins this year the only teams they have defeated by more than 2 are Greenway, Cambridge, Rosemount, and Detroit Lakes. All their games against ranked teams are losses or basically one goal wins (a couple had empty netters). Never mind the fact that Little Falls hasn't allowed more than 3 goals in any game this year.sandstrom wrote:Yeah Ill weigh in on Denfeld and Little Falls, Denfeld would beat them by 4.
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Re: Class A Rankings 1-6-13
Not saying you're right or wrong, but the best team LF has played this year is either Hibbing, Mound or Virginia, depending on who you ask, and they have allowed a combined 3 goals to those three teams.PuckRanger wrote:Highly unlikely given that of Denfeld's 11 wins this year the only teams they have defeated by more than 2 are Greenway, Cambridge, Rosemount, and Detroit Lakes. All their games against ranked teams are losses or basically one goal wins (a couple had empty netters). Never mind the fact that Little Falls hasn't allowed more than 3 goals in any game this year.sandstrom wrote:Yeah Ill weigh in on Denfeld and Little Falls, Denfeld would beat them by 4.
On the other hand, they have allowed 3 goals to Sauk-Rapids, Hutch and Princeton.
They'd be a hands down top 5 team if the results they had the first 5 games of the season had continued, despite their schedule. But I have a hard time seeing that a team who has beaten both Hermantown and East and scored 10 goals in doing so wouldn't be able to score a few on LF.
Obviously this team beat that team logic doesn't work, but I'm not sold on LF from their body of work. Tomorrow will be a very interesting test.
On a side note:
LF beat Int. Falls 5-1, while Denfeld beat them 6-4.
LF beat Virginia 6-1, while Denfeld beat them 5-3.
Two very tough teams to analyze on paper.
On a related note, the Hub has Cathedral beating Hermantown in OT 5-4.
Shots 29-25 Hermantown
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Re: Class A Rankings 1-6-13
I agree, and I have seen Denfeld play 4 times now and Little Falls twice - including a couple you just mentioned - so I might have a little more insight. What makes it so tough to analyze with these two teams (aside from the obvious schedule differences) is that when your goaltender is such a huge part of your team, if he has a game where is just average, it looks on paper like the team struggled compared to other results, when in reality, the bulk of the team is still playing the same.HShockeywatcher wrote:Not saying you're right or wrong, but the best team LF has played this year is either Hibbing, Mound or Virginia, depending on who you ask, and they have allowed a combined 3 goals to those three teams.PuckRanger wrote:Highly unlikely given that of Denfeld's 11 wins this year the only teams they have defeated by more than 2 are Greenway, Cambridge, Rosemount, and Detroit Lakes. All their games against ranked teams are losses or basically one goal wins (a couple had empty netters). Never mind the fact that Little Falls hasn't allowed more than 3 goals in any game this year.sandstrom wrote:Yeah Ill weigh in on Denfeld and Little Falls, Denfeld would beat them by 4.
On the other hand, they have allowed 3 goals to Sauk-Rapids, Hutch and Princeton.
They'd be a hands down top 5 team if the results they had the first 5 games of the season had continued, despite their schedule. But I have a hard time seeing that a team who has beaten both Hermantown and East and scored 10 goals in doing so wouldn't be able to score a few on LF.
Obviously this team beat that team logic doesn't work, but I'm not sold on LF from their body of work. Tomorrow will be a very interesting test.
On a side note:
LF beat Int. Falls 5-1, while Denfeld beat them 6-4.
LF beat Virginia 6-1, while Denfeld beat them 5-3.
Two very tough teams to analyze on paper.
I won't say for a second that Denfeld can't win over Little Falls (or vice versa). I just seriously doubt it would be by a 4-goal margin - which is what I was mainly trying to get across. I didn't just fall off the turnip truck and I know its high school hockey, so I'll never say never, but my money would be on a close, lower scoring game if both of their regular goalies are playing healthy.
Take into account when you read the next two paragraphs that on average the scoring rate for shots on goal is somewhere around the 10-11% mark. (Both teams are over 15% offensively for the season which is well above almost all ranked teams in both classes.)
Little Falls has signature wins over Hibbing, Virginia, and I Falls. In those 3 games Stumpf saw 99 shots and allowed just two goals (2%), while their forwards scored 14 goals on 83 shots (17%) - and despite the goal margins of 3, 4, and 5, they were outshot in all 3 of those games. I didn't see the I Falls game, but in the Hibbing and Virginia games, they certainly weren't a bunch of shots from the outside. My point being, that like Denfeld, their goalie is a huge part of their team.
In Denfeld's two most prominent wins over Hermantown and Duluth East, Thompson saw 102 shots and allowed 8 goals (8%) while their offense scored 10 goals on just 38 shots (26%). Even more so than in the case of Little Falls, most of those 102 shots were not exactly taken from the perimeter.
Its not necessarily about who they've played or who they've beaten, its more of how they play, which to me is almost a mirror image between these two. Both have skilled opportunistic forwards and excellent goaltenders and both tend to give up more scoring chances and generate fewer chances than one might think when you just peruse their final scores. This isn't a bad thing, these are just the areas they excel. But it can be maddening to fans who try and figure out what went wrong when they put up closer to average numbers and cough up a game or two, but it also wins a few games that maybe other teams wouldn't.
Both are still top 15 teams, regardless. Like I said earlier where each team falls in the rankings is going to be a matter of personal opinion because it seems teams from 6 (maybe even 5 after tonight's result) on up can all consistently beat each other on any given night.
Re: Class A Rankings 1-6-13
ok yes i agree with you on those points but lets not forget that hermantown and duluth east are a lot better than the quality wins LF has to offer. Also as LF got out shot vs i falls and virgina. Denfeld out shot each of those teams by a pretty decent margin.PuckRanger wrote:I agree, and I have seen Denfeld play 4 times now and Little Falls twice - including a couple you just mentioned - so I might have a little more insight. What makes it so tough to analyze with these two teams (aside from the obvious schedule differences) is that when your goaltender is such a huge part of your team, if he has a game where is just average, it looks on paper like the team struggled compared to other results, when in reality, the bulk of the team is still playing the same.HShockeywatcher wrote:Not saying you're right or wrong, but the best team LF has played this year is either Hibbing, Mound or Virginia, depending on who you ask, and they have allowed a combined 3 goals to those three teams.PuckRanger wrote: Highly unlikely given that of Denfeld's 11 wins this year the only teams they have defeated by more than 2 are Greenway, Cambridge, Rosemount, and Detroit Lakes. All their games against ranked teams are losses or basically one goal wins (a couple had empty netters). Never mind the fact that Little Falls hasn't allowed more than 3 goals in any game this year.
On the other hand, they have allowed 3 goals to Sauk-Rapids, Hutch and Princeton.
They'd be a hands down top 5 team if the results they had the first 5 games of the season had continued, despite their schedule. But I have a hard time seeing that a team who has beaten both Hermantown and East and scored 10 goals in doing so wouldn't be able to score a few on LF.
Obviously this team beat that team logic doesn't work, but I'm not sold on LF from their body of work. Tomorrow will be a very interesting test.
On a side note:
LF beat Int. Falls 5-1, while Denfeld beat them 6-4.
LF beat Virginia 6-1, while Denfeld beat them 5-3.
Two very tough teams to analyze on paper.
I won't say for a second that Denfeld can't win over Little Falls (or vice versa). I just seriously doubt it would be by a 4-goal margin - which is what I was mainly trying to get across. I didn't just fall off the turnip truck and I know its high school hockey, so I'll never say never, but my money would be on a close, lower scoring game if both of their regular goalies are playing healthy.
Take into account when you read the next two paragraphs that on average the scoring rate for shots on goal is somewhere around the 10-11% mark. (Both teams are over 15% offensively for the season which is well above almost all ranked teams in both classes.)
Little Falls has signature wins over Hibbing, Virginia, and I Falls. In those 3 games Stumpf saw 99 shots and allowed just two goals (2%), while their forwards scored 14 goals on 83 shots (17%) - and despite the goal margins of 3, 4, and 5, they were outshot in all 3 of those games. I didn't see the I Falls game, but in the Hibbing and Virginia games, they certainly weren't a bunch of shots from the outside. My point being, that like Denfeld, their goalie is a huge part of their team.
In Denfeld's two most prominent wins over Hermantown and Duluth East, Thompson saw 102 shots and allowed 8 goals (8%) while their offense scored 10 goals on just 38 shots (26%). Even more so than in the case of Little Falls, most of those 102 shots were not exactly taken from the perimeter.
Its not necessarily about who they've played or who they've beaten, its more of how they play, which to me is almost a mirror image between these two. Both have skilled opportunistic forwards and excellent goaltenders and both tend to give up more scoring chances and generate fewer chances than one might think when you just peruse their final scores. This isn't a bad thing, these are just the areas they excel. But it can be maddening to fans who try and figure out what went wrong when they put up closer to average numbers and cough up a game or two, but it also wins a few games that maybe other teams wouldn't.
Both are still top 15 teams, regardless. Like I said earlier where each team falls in the rankings is going to be a matter of personal opinion because it seems teams from 6 (maybe even 5 after tonight's result) on up can all consistently beat each other on any given night.
I havent seen LF play this year, but i have seen Thompson play vs east and hermantown and he is an incredible goalie, as stumpf is also.
All in all i feel that Denfeld should be ranked over LF.
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Hermantown beat Little Falls this afternoon 3-2. It was a good game to watch, tied 2-2 late in the 3rd when Hermantown converted a power play for the game winner. Shots were VERY lopsided (43-14 I think). Little Falls was able to skate with the Hawks, but Hermantown did not allow LF any space to get any offense going, and when they had some chances the Flyers missed the net. Hermantown was a big and fast team, and fun to watch. LF has a nice squad, but is lacking that one offensive threat that can make something happen.
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After watching the Hibbing-Virginia game tonight, I don't think a case can be made for Virginia to be in the rankings. They didn't look good at all and Hibbing completely dominated that game. The only offense Virginia had was when they had a 7 min stretch of pp, of which 4 minutes was 5 on 3, and then late in the game when Hibbing started putting in 4th line JV players.
On several Virginia pp's, Hibbing had more shots than the Blue Devils did. I just can't put them in the top 20.
On several Virginia pp's, Hibbing had more shots than the Blue Devils did. I just can't put them in the top 20.