AAA/future success

keepyourheadup · Post by **keepyourheadup** » Sat Jan 05, 2013 2:45 pm

I was asked recently if its really necessary to play AAA hockey or not. While I like many others don't believe you have to, a look back at the 93 Iceman might make you think otherwise. In no particular order here is a list of kids that got to D1 or are on their way.

Mike Rielly Minnesota
Mario Lucia Notre Dame
Tony Canaranisi UMD
Nick Seeler Omaha
Ryan Bullock Dartmouth
Micheal Zajac Princeton
Tommy Shutt Quinnipiac
Dan Molenaar UMD
Jake Guentzel Omaha
Charlie Lindgren St. Cloud
Justin Kloos Minnesota

There are two others still playing juniors in hopes of getting there. For a team that routinely only carried 16/17 players this is a startling percentage.

If I'm not mistaken both the blades and predators have a similar number.
I guess I can see why AAA hockey has exploded the way it has.

Toomuchtoosoon · Post by **Toomuchtoosoon** » Sat Jan 05, 2013 4:52 pm

Do you think than none of these players would have achieved success without AAA? If the answer is yes, then it is key to their development. All these kids were good at a young age and were recruited to play. If they chose camps and other development activities, my guess is that they would still be good.

Doing nothing playing videos all day every day in the offseason probably would have hindered their development. AAA seems to be the easy solution, but not the only way for kids to get better.

old goalie85 · Post by **old goalie85** » Sat Jan 05, 2013 5:08 pm

So Lucia/Guentzel would be nothibg wo the Icemen ??? I think the kids dads would disagree !!

keepyourheadup · Post by **keepyourheadup** » Sun Jan 06, 2013 7:14 am

My point isn't that the Icemen or any other AAA team made them better, but more a case that kids are identified at a very young age and then given the opportunity to play against kids in the same situation. I'm not sure if it means anything but the success of this particular group is impressive.

old goalie85 · Post by **old goalie85** » Sun Jan 06, 2013 9:35 am

I see what your saying. Bernie did it five years earlier w/the 88's.

2legit2quitguy · Post by **2legit2quitguy** » Sun Jan 06, 2013 10:40 am

What are the numbers of kids that do play AAA that never play college hockey??

old goalie85 · Post by **old goalie85** » Sun Jan 06, 2013 8:11 pm

I heard it depends on if the kid plays Super Elite/ Elite/Invite/open/or just plain jane AAA.

JSR · Post by **JSR** » Mon Jan 07, 2013 11:54 am

Playing AAA hockey is not necessarily the be all/end all of things. Ross Mauermann is a sophmore at D1 Providence out east. He was their leading scorer as a freshman and is currently second on the team in points this season. In other words, I think it's safe to say the kid is pretty good. He never played AAA hockey his whole life until his senior year in high school he tried out for, and made, the Team Wisconsin before and after team but otherwise never played any type of AAA hockey at all. However, it's worth noting his dad is a high school coach and former D1 player.... so you do not HAVE to play AAA hockey to be great.....

Which brings me to my second point though and that is that becoming really good at hockey, and when I say really good I mean D1 college good, it takes alot of things. It takes athleticism, it takes alot of hard work and purposeful hard work but it also takes OPPORTUNITIES..... I was talking to a very good and well respected hockey coach about this same topic and he talked about OPPORTUNITIES being key. And he gave me great examples of what he was talking about. So my above example of Mauermann shows that he did not need AAA hockey but he got other opportunities like skating on the ice with the high school team from the time he was 4, like having a dad who could teach him the intiricacies of the game and give him other opportunities to develop etc.... This coach and I then looked at Team Wisconsin, this is the B&A team that competes in the Elite HS Hockey league and the other age groups participate in other similar opportunities. There are U14, U15, U16 and U18 Team Wisconsin teams. The overwhelming majority of kids who get D1 scholarships in the state of WI likely played for TW.... but we looked at the make up of the TW teams and where they played growing up, the stats were overwhelming in that the overwhelming majoirty of the kids played Tier 1 AAA hockey through first year of Bantams. Now not 100% but the figure was pretty close to around 85%, with the other 15% being kids from Superior, Stevens Point, Hudson, Eau Clarie or their dad's were high end coaches in college or high school. Basically for us in WI this coach made a great point, that point being that if you don't play for Hudson, Stevens Point, Superior or Eau Claire (and even those kids play Summer/Spring AAA hockey....) or if you don't have a dad who is a really good coach (and/or former player) then you'd probably better play Tier 1 AAA hockey or you really don't stand a chance in this state......

Now to try and extrapolate to MN Hockey, I think a similar thing is true in that MN association hockey is great hockey so you do not NEED Tier 1 AAA hockey in the winter however you probably still need to supplement it somehow with either a dad who is/was a great coach, or Spring/Summer AAA hockey (with a good program) or something like that. Why.... again it's opportunity, the opportunity to play with and against better players to show you where your strengths and weaknesses are, the opportunity to get coached by really good coaches on the intricacies of the game, the opportunity to have better practices ad games.... it's about opportunities that help a kid get better if playing at a higher level is their goal. Just like down here playing association hockey period (for 99% fo the state) doesn't cut it, well JUST playing association hockey up in MN probably doesn't cut it anymore. You need SOME sort of other things (aka opportunities) that will help put you over the top. The thing is alot of good kids don't have parents who were great players or coaches or access to other things that will help their son or daughter so AAA hockey becomes their only real venue to give their kids those opportunities. So in summary, no you do not need AAA hockey to become good/great but depending on where you live or who your parents are it may be the only viable option to give your kids that opportunity and that is why it exists and is growing..... OPPORTUNITY

SnowedIn · Post by **SnowedIn** » Mon Jan 07, 2013 1:33 pm

Very good post JSR.

OG - it does depend on what level you play and just as importantly your coach or coaches. At the younger ages, a player may not be on the highest level team but if the coach is providing great instruction and skill development then they will have the opportunity to move up relative to other players and move up to a higher level as they get older.

Once they move on into Bantam, and maybe even 2nd year PW, they need a coach that can continue their skill development and teach them how to use those skills to become an effective player and really ring home the finer points of the game. Some coaches do one or the other really well, but because you need both you may need to find a different coach or work with more than one coach.

Agree with JSR that association hockey by itself won't work for the majority of skaters.

oldschoolpuckster · Post by **oldschoolpuckster** » Mon Jan 07, 2013 2:12 pm

Nice post JSR!!

I would agree that AAA is about getting the opportunity to play more hockey. Of course it helps make you a better player.

One season of coaching, good or bad, will not change much of a players outcome (Juniors, D1, Pro) in the long run. I think that AAA is a great tool for kids to use to take their game to the next level during the "off season" and return to their association a better player.

Like most things, the more "reps" the better.

This is nuts! · Post by **This is nuts!** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 8:20 am

Let' s not forget not all kids play AAA hockey to get a scolarship. They play because they love to play hockey and don't want to take the summer off.

AAA doesn't make college players. The extra ice time makes them college players. Wether it's indoor,outdoor, or on a pond. Don't forget some of the most skilled players of all time grew up playing outdoors non structured hockey. It would be interesting to see if all those hrs were structured what type of player would they have been?

You want to play college hockey u need SIZE, good genes, skill, speed, ice time, and first and foremost DRIVE. Not mom and dads drive either. The kid needs to want it.. Oh ya and a little luck and to JSR's point some opportunies that others may not get..

I n my opinion if u are missing one piece of the puzzle u won't make it.. aaa hockey can give u ice time and some opportunity but not SIZE, good genes, and drive. So AAA is not the answer its simply ice time and potential opportunity.

JSR · Post by **JSR** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 11:23 am

This is nuts! wrote:Let' s not forget not all kids play AAA hockey to get a scolarship. They play because they love to play hockey and don't want to take the summer off.

AAA doesn't make college players. The extra ice time makes them college players. Wether it's indoor,outdoor, or on a pond. Don't forget some of the most skilled players of all time grew up playing outdoors non structured hockey. It would be interesting to see if all those hrs were structured what type of player would they have been?

You want to play college hockey u need SIZE, good genes, skill, speed, ice time, and first and foremost DRIVE. Not mom and dads drive either. The kid needs to want it.. Oh ya and a little luck and to JSR's point some opportunies that others may not get..

I n my opinion if u are missing one piece of the puzzle u won't make it.. aaa hockey can give u ice time and some opportunity but not SIZE, good genes, and drive. So AAA is not the answer its simply ice time and potential opportunity.

Define SIZE..... As I agree with all you said except a little fuzzy on the size thing. Yes size can give you a great advantage and the kid who is 6'4" tends to get offers that a similar kid with the same skills at 5'8" doesn't get... BUT the statitistics don't show that the game is being completely overtaken by "giants" over 6' tall at the college level..... so an argument can be made that you statistically probably need to be above certain height to make it to the college level but it isn't over 6' tall. Now if you end up being 5'4" ok then you probably aren't going anywhere and "size" does become a factor at some point, I will concede that, but forgiving anomolously very short people there seems to be plenty of room for average size guys at D1. Just looking at some of the D1 teams for a minute (and let's face it, all rosters are fudged a bit, so I bet in reality you could take an inch off of most all of the players heights listed) here is what I found:

1) WI Badgers - 26 players on the roster 12 players listed under 6' tall, there are 3 guys listed at 6' even, and 11 listed over 6' tall

2) Denver Pioneers - 23 players listed on the roster, 10 players listed under 6' tall, 2 at 6' even, and 11 listed over 6' tall

3) MN Gophers - 27 players listed on the roster, 10 listed under 6' tall, 6 listed at 6' even, and 11 listed over 6' tall

4) Benidji State - 27 players listed on roster, 14 players listed under 6' tall, 3 listed at 6' even, and 10 over 6' tall

5) Northern Michigan - 30 players listed on the roster. 15 players listed under 6' tall, 3 players listed at 6' even, and 12 listed over 6' tall

My point being that there seems to be even money opportunity for guys who are between 5'8" through 6' tall compared to guys over 6' tall at the D1 level. Now I will also say that I saw virtually no players listed below 5'8" so that does seem to be the magic number. Of course there is the ocassional anomolous exception to the rule but it does appear that if you aren't atleast 5'8" you basically have no shot. So I concede your "size" caveat depending on what you meant by size, if you mean you need to be atleast 5'8", point conceded, if you meant you need to be over 6' tall then I think we know that is false according to the data......

Deep Breath · Post by **Deep Breath** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 12:59 pm

Size is becoming less of a "must have" if you have a kid that dreams of playing college hockey at the D1 level, especially if he is a forward. For the 2011-12 D1 men's hockey season, there were 892 forwards listed on the rosters of the 58 D1 teams. 471 of those kids were 5'11" or smaller, or, 53 percent. Of those 892 players, 303 were 5'10" or smaller, or, 34 percent. By comparison, just three seasons prior to that, the percentage of forwards on D1 rosters that were 5'11" or smaller was at 42 percent. Being 6'2" and being able to skate and play with the puck is obviously an advantage, but if you talk to scouts for leagues like the USHL, which we have plenty of right here in the Twin Cities, they will all tell you the same thing. Hands and feet are what is setting most of the "upper end" kids apart. They want players that can skate and play with the puck.

Shinbone_News · Post by **Shinbone_News** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 2:40 pm

Size is definitely relative, and USA college hockey seems a great place for little guys to reach their peak potential -- maybe even go beyond.

Johnny Gaudreau is maybe the best example. Believe he's 5'6" and 141 pounds. 2 years ago was USHL rookie of the year, last year won the NCAA at Boston College, and as everyone knows, this year won a gold medal at juniors.

Also, Kyle Rau. 5'8" -- and I think that's generous. May never make The Show, but earns a lot of respect at D1.

And it's not just forwards. Matt Van Voorhis, USNDTP, Sioux Falls Stampede, Denver University. One of the most respected D-men in the USHL. He's 5'7".

Size probably counts further down the line, but little guys can and do thrive at D1 college level.

This is nuts! · Post by **This is nuts!** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 3:27 pm

Shinbone_News wrote:Size is definitely relative, and USA college hockey seems a great place for little guys to reach their peak potential -- maybe even go beyond.

Johnny Gaudreau is maybe the best example. Believe he's 5'6" and 141 pounds. 2 years ago was USHL rookie of the year, last year won the NCAA at Boston College, and as everyone knows, this year won a gold medal at juniors.

Also, Kyle Rau. 5'8" -- and I think that's generous. May never make The Show, but earns a lot of respect at D1.

And it's not just forwards. Matt Van Voorhis, USNDTP, Sioux Falls Stampede, Denver University. One of the most respected D-men in the USHL. He's

Size probably counts further down the line, but little guys can and do thrive at D1 college level.

What I meant by size is 5 10 and up.. If your under 5 10 I think your chances diminish greatly. Having said that it doesn't mean u can't mak it at 5 8. But those guys are few and far between. To my point, all the little speedsters at the youth level have success until they hit peewees,then he lack of size starts to play a role.. And I do know here ar exceptions...

old goalie85 · Post by **old goalie85** » Tue Jan 08, 2013 9:08 pm

Interesting stats. What does it look like for NHL players ???

JSR · Post by **JSR** » Wed Jan 09, 2013 10:08 am

This is nuts! wrote:
Shinbone_News wrote:Size is definitely relative, and USA college hockey seems a great place for little guys to reach their peak potential -- maybe even go beyond.

Johnny Gaudreau is maybe the best example. Believe he's 5'6" and 141 pounds. 2 years ago was USHL rookie of the year, last year won the NCAA at Boston College, and as everyone knows, this year won a gold medal at juniors.

Also, Kyle Rau. 5'8" -- and I think that's generous. May never make The Show, but earns a lot of respect at D1.

And it's not just forwards. Matt Van Voorhis, USNDTP, Sioux Falls Stampede, Denver University. One of the most respected D-men in the USHL. He's

Size probably counts further down the line, but little guys can and do thrive at D1 college level.

What I meant by size is 5 10 and up.. If your under 5 10 I think your chances diminish greatly. Having said that it doesn't mean u can't mak it at 5 8. But those guys are few and far between. To my point, all the little speedsters at the youth level have success until they hit peewees,then he lack of size starts to play a role.. And I do know here ar exceptions...

I do not disagree with your premise but I do think you underestimate how many guys are between 5'8" and 5'9" in D1......... check the rosters, I think you wil be surprised. Like I said above to me it looked like 5'8" was the cutoff because I saw virtually no one at 5'7" or below on any of tthe rosters

This is nuts! · Post by **This is nuts!** » Wed Jan 09, 2013 10:51 am

JSR wrote:
This is nuts! wrote:
Shinbone_News wrote:Size is definitely relative, and USA college hockey seems a great place for little guys to reach their peak potential -- maybe even go beyond.

Johnny Gaudreau is maybe the best example. Believe he's 5'6" and 141 pounds. 2 years ago was USHL rookie of the year, last year won the NCAA at Boston College, and as everyone knows, this year won a gold medal at juniors.

Also, Kyle Rau. 5'8" -- and I think that's generous. May never make The Show, but earns a lot of respect at D1.

And it's not just forwards. Matt Van Voorhis, USNDTP, Sioux Falls Stampede, Denver University. One of the most respected D-men in the USHL. He's

Size probably counts further down the line, but little guys can and do thrive at D1 college level.

What I meant by size is 5 10 and up.. If your under 5 10 I think your chances diminish greatly. Having said that it doesn't mean u can't mak it at 5 8. But those guys are few and far between. To my point, all the little speedsters at the youth level have success until they hit peewees,then he lack of size starts to play a role.. And I do know here ar exceptions...
I do not disagree with your premise but I do think you underestimate how many guys are between 5'8" and 5'9" in D1......... check the rosters, I think you wil be surprised. Like I said above to me it looked like 5'8" was the cutoff because I saw virtually no one at 5'7" or below on any of tthe rosters

JSR, I m sure you are right, I m sure there are more 5 8 guys then I think and since they have put a stop to the clutching and grabbing we may see more of those guys in the future. As a coach if you have a small guy and a big guy with similar/same skills I take the bigger player everytime. I think thats where a lot of smaller players get the shaft.

The book Outliers talks about how people become successful and the first chapter is specific to hockey.. It's a good read if haven't read it already..

JSR · Post by **JSR** » Wed Jan 09, 2013 12:11 pm

This is nuts! wrote:
JSR wrote:
This is nuts! wrote:
What I meant by size is 5 10 and up.. If your under 5 10 I think your chances diminish greatly. Having said that it doesn't mean u can't mak it at 5 8. But those guys are few and far between. To my point, all the little speedsters at the youth level have success until they hit peewees,then he lack of size starts to play a role.. And I do know here ar exceptions...
I do not disagree with your premise but I do think you underestimate how many guys are between 5'8" and 5'9" in D1......... check the rosters, I think you wil be surprised. Like I said above to me it looked like 5'8" was the cutoff because I saw virtually no one at 5'7" or below on any of tthe rosters
JSR, I m sure you are right, I m sure there are more 5 8 guys then I think and since they have put a stop to the clutching and grabbing we may see more of those guys in the future. As a coach if you have a small guy and a big guy with similar/same skills I take the bigger player everytime. I think thats where a lot of smaller players get the shaft.

The book Outliers talks about how people become successful and the first chapter is specific to hockey.. It's a good read if haven't read it already..

Totally agree, seen my fair share of 6'4" guys get scholarships that had the same talent level as some 5'10" guys I knew and those guys didn' get a sniff so I am in total agreement there.... the bigger you are the "less skilled" you seem to be able to get away with and still make the cut if that makes sense. But yes if two guys are exactly the same skill wise but one guy is bigger than the other I wuld take the bigger guy every time as well...

Yes I have read Outliers it's an excellent book.