I will throw it out now, will Tonka 3-peat this year?
IMO, with the level of talent they have in the elite league, including both goalies (out of 6 in the state) and incoming girls from the defending 14U A State Champs, they are the prohibitive Class AA favorite to add to their trophy case this year.
Last year's team was a bit under the radar, even though they were the defending champs. This year they carry a target the size of a 48-foot yacht on Lake Minnetonka.
Barring upset, their biggest threat is most likely going to be BSM in the Section 2AA final game which will be the "Rock Star" game of the year and worthy of a state title game in and of itself.
Let's hear your thoughts on this?
Will Tonka Three-Peat?
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
Will Tonka Three-Peat?
Last edited by blueblood on Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MNHockeyFan
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No doubt Minnetonka will be rated No. 1 to open the season, and as the defending champs with a very strong returning lineup they will be the favorite to win it all again. They look to be especially strong in net and on D, so the few opponents who can skate with them will have to be equally stingy on defense and will need to take advantage of the few mistakes the Skippers will make.
But to already crown them 2AA Champs before the season even gets underway? I don't think so! It's a long road between now and the final game at the X, and lots of things can happen along the way.... which is why I voted "no" in the poll.
But to already crown them 2AA Champs before the season even gets underway? I don't think so! It's a long road between now and the final game at the X, and lots of things can happen along the way.... which is why I voted "no" in the poll.
Re: Will Tonka Three-Peat?
One of the Lakevilles, the top Northwest Suburban rep, and Roseau (who won the Consolation title and return all of their team) appear to be the other top suitors for 12-13...
Every opponent will be gunning for Tonka from Day 1 and they play a killer schedule. I think that this probably helps Tonka, but that stress could take its toll. It's extremely difficult to maintain that level of play and mental focus from start to finish. All it takes is one slip-up in the playoffs and it's over. Tonka has been healthy the past few seasons, but that may not continue forever. With only 4 D skating, that's always a concern, of course. Tonka found a way to win the close games last season and there are a lot of teams with the majority of their players returning. Thanks to the current playoff system, you will likely see #1 and #2 in state play in the sectional finals (again), so one of those two teams will suffer as will hockey fans everywhere. As with most seasons, it will come down to who's playing the best at the end, is healthy, and has a hot goaltender. Tonka certainly has the firepower to do it, but there are many variables in play that make it very difficult to accomplish.
For anyone voting 'No', I'd be interested to hear your pick for AA State Champ.
For anyone voting 'No', I'd be interested to hear your pick for AA State Champ.
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Goalie-Dad
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The reality is girl's teams are dominated by 2 or 3 stars on the team. The success of the team depends on these girls. If any of these girls have a bad night, anyone can win.
Look at the Hill Murray team from last year. I believe they were rated no. 1 for a good part of the season, led by superstar Brandt. Then teams focused on stopping her and Hill Murray did not make it out of the sectionals.
Way to early to make predictions.
Look at the Hill Murray team from last year. I believe they were rated no. 1 for a good part of the season, led by superstar Brandt. Then teams focused on stopping her and Hill Murray did not make it out of the sectionals.
Way to early to make predictions.
True in many cases, but in the case of Tonka, they rely on 5+ stars, much like Roseville the past several years. Hill Murray relied largely on 1 SUPERstar.Goalie-Dad wrote:The reality is girl's teams are dominated by 2 or 3 stars on the team. The success of the team depends on these girls. If any of these girls have a bad night, anyone can win.
Look at the Hill Murray team from last year. I believe they were rated no. 1 for a good part of the season, led by superstar Brandt. Then teams focused on stopping her and Hill Murray did not make it out of the sectionals.
Way to early to make predictions.
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luckyEPDad
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I'll be a total homer and go with Eden Prairie.
The '96 girls that were fixtures at both A and B state tournaments over the past 6 years are all trying out for varsity. I think EP lost far fewer players than other powerhouses of that time like Edina, Centennial and Wayzata. Add in a few '95 and '97 girls who have a lot of state tournament experience, a couple of talented seniors and a fantastic senior goalie and you have a team that is a huge step up from last year's squad. The biggest problem Coach Grossman will have this year is deciding who to cut. Filling holes will not be an issue.
The '96 girls that were fixtures at both A and B state tournaments over the past 6 years are all trying out for varsity. I think EP lost far fewer players than other powerhouses of that time like Edina, Centennial and Wayzata. Add in a few '95 and '97 girls who have a lot of state tournament experience, a couple of talented seniors and a fantastic senior goalie and you have a team that is a huge step up from last year's squad. The biggest problem Coach Grossman will have this year is deciding who to cut. Filling holes will not be an issue.
Well, if EP can make it to State, anything can happen. They certainly are a team on the rise and will be battle-tested after playing in the Lake conference. It seems that a team rarely wins the state tournament when "it's supposed to". A team generally wins a year early, as they begin to peak. Two years ago, Minnetonka was supposed to win and they did. Last year, they were not supposed to win, but they did. Tough for lightning to strike the same place 3 times in a row, even if you have a lightning rod firmly in place.
The current Minnetonka squad has 7 - 8 D1 players (not all of them seniors), plus a few potential D3's, quite unlike anything we've seen. However, that's no guarantee for the ultimate success. I think that BSM and Tonka play once in the regular season and likely once in a tournament, so the rubber game may well be at the Sectional finals. Tonka probably has the luxury of patience and they certainly have the experience, so will aim to peak at the right time. They scored 9 goals by 8 different players at last year's State tournament, including 2 goals by lesser-known sophomores in the championship game, so I would submit that they're fairly strong across the board.
Too early to predict, of course, but still fun to speculate and even more so as the snows begin to hit us this weekend.
The current Minnetonka squad has 7 - 8 D1 players (not all of them seniors), plus a few potential D3's, quite unlike anything we've seen. However, that's no guarantee for the ultimate success. I think that BSM and Tonka play once in the regular season and likely once in a tournament, so the rubber game may well be at the Sectional finals. Tonka probably has the luxury of patience and they certainly have the experience, so will aim to peak at the right time. They scored 9 goals by 8 different players at last year's State tournament, including 2 goals by lesser-known sophomores in the championship game, so I would submit that they're fairly strong across the board.
Too early to predict, of course, but still fun to speculate and even more so as the snows begin to hit us this weekend.
If Minnetonka isn't the best coached team in the state, I don't know who is. Yes, they get great talent, but they don't treat the kids like "stars" and everyone is expected to play by the same rules and stick to the system. They also seem to be better at developing kids post-youth hockey. For that reason, I think they repeat.
I believe that Eden Prairie and Edina will be big starting NEXT year, that's when all those kids really start to take over, and they were the best kids all during their youth. Edina has the bigger star, EP has more depth. Again, so much will depend on the coaching. (And whether Edina can recruit a quality defender or two).
In theory, BSM should do well, but when you look at their team, it's been over-recruited. Too many stars, not enough workers. They're small, not very physical, and while they have some awesome skill kids, they have trouble with larger, more disciplined teams (Tonka). They'll be one of the best teams in the state, but won't win when they need to.
The Lakeville schools are on the rise. The sheer number of kids will start to show through soon, and there's no big private school sucking talent away down there yet.
I believe that Eden Prairie and Edina will be big starting NEXT year, that's when all those kids really start to take over, and they were the best kids all during their youth. Edina has the bigger star, EP has more depth. Again, so much will depend on the coaching. (And whether Edina can recruit a quality defender or two).
In theory, BSM should do well, but when you look at their team, it's been over-recruited. Too many stars, not enough workers. They're small, not very physical, and while they have some awesome skill kids, they have trouble with larger, more disciplined teams (Tonka). They'll be one of the best teams in the state, but won't win when they need to.
The Lakeville schools are on the rise. The sheer number of kids will start to show through soon, and there's no big private school sucking talent away down there yet.
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luckyEPDad
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Not to pick on you in particular, but I hear this kind of statement all the time and it is just plain crazy. Yes, it is very rare that you see a three-peat, but that is because of math.Bandy wrote:Are they good enough? Definitely. Do I think they will? No, too tough to three-peat. But it wouldn't surprise me if they do.
Say that a team is so good they have a 50% chance of winning the championship any given year (most would call that almost total domination). The probability the team will win a championship this year (or any year) is 50%. The probability the same team will win twice in a row is .5 * .5 or 25%. For a three-peat the probability drops to less than 13%.
Minnetonka's prior two titles have no negative impact on this team's chances of winning the state championship.
Tonka
Tonka will have a very good team again this year, no doubt. They are particularly strong at defense and goaltending. Always a good starting point. Like the two previous years, there is a very good chance the state title game will be played in the Section 6 finals. Last year BSM beat Tonka during the season and outshot them almost 2-1 in the Section finals before losing in OT. Both BSM and Tonka return most of their players. Assuming injuries don't play a factor, it will again be a dog fight this year. The question is who is more hungry and of course which goalie has a better day when it counts. I think the odds are against Tonka winning again. They need to get by BSM first, which won't be easy (unless BSM does't learn to stay out of the sin bin). I suspect others in the Section will have something to say as well. So just getting to state is not a slam dunk for Tonka. Then of course they have to win 3 more games against presumably strong teams that will be looking to knock them off.
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MNHockeyFan
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If I had to pick just one team that I think has the best chance of winning it all, it would be Minnetonka. But that's not the question in the poll; it's whether or not Minnetonka WILL win it. As Nimrod points out, winning the Section 6 final will pose one big hurdle. And neither Tonka or BSM should look past other teams in that section who look to be improved - an upset (or two) is certainly possible. As an example, last year Minnetonka split with Wayzata, losing 1-3 and then winning the rematch by just one. And look for an even stronger Wayzata to put up a similar challenge this year, to whichever of the two section favorites they're paired against. And don't count Buffalo out - they also look to be capable of springing an upset.sinbin wrote:For anyone voting 'No', I'd be interested to hear your pick for AA State Champ.
Last year, besides splitting with Wayzata in the regular season, Tonka also lost games to Anoka, Hill-Murray and Breck. And as Nimrod points out they lost to BSM (0-2) and barely escaped them in the Section final, in overtime. During the season they also came up with one goal victories over Warroad, Roseau, Hill-Murray and Eden Prairie, and came away with a tie against Edina. Then at State they got past Lakeville North, 2-1 in overtime. So they had a lot of close games against a lot of very good teams, and I don't see why this season should be much different. In these types of games any number of things can happen to change the outcome; you just never know. But give the Skippers a lot of credit, they found a way to win when it mattered most.
They could certainly find ways to win the big games again this year, but if last year's results are any indication, it won't be easy.
Tonka plays defense. Their "stars" play defense as well as offense. There's a reason they win when they have to. They have good size and effort-type kids. Who cares about the regular season?
Private schools want to recruit the offensive stars. When you look at the BSM and Breck rosters, they're littered with scorers. But those kids can be pushed outside and neutralized. They won't go places where it gets tough. Breck gets by because the competition in A isn't as deep or strong. BSM won't get their hands dirty the way Tonka or Hopkins has.
Tonka does it right. EP will have the talent again and they do it right, too. Tonka wins this year, and next year EP and Tonka battle it out.
Private schools want to recruit the offensive stars. When you look at the BSM and Breck rosters, they're littered with scorers. But those kids can be pushed outside and neutralized. They won't go places where it gets tough. Breck gets by because the competition in A isn't as deep or strong. BSM won't get their hands dirty the way Tonka or Hopkins has.
Tonka does it right. EP will have the talent again and they do it right, too. Tonka wins this year, and next year EP and Tonka battle it out.
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BeenAround
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Wayzata is the team to be dealt with.U10Father wrote:Tonka plays defense. Their "stars" play defense as well as offense. There's a reason they win when they have to. They have good size and effort-type kids. Who cares about the regular season?
Private schools want to recruit the offensive stars. When you look at the BSM and Breck rosters, they're littered with scorers. But those kids can be pushed outside and neutralized. They won't go places where it gets tough. Breck gets by because the competition in A isn't as deep or strong. BSM won't get their hands dirty the way Tonka or Hopkins has.
Tonka does it right. EP will have the talent again and they do it right, too. Tonka wins this year, and next year EP and Tonka battle it out.
Thinking about EPDad's math a bit, over that 3-year span, those odds are probably about right. I'd put year 1 a little higher, year 2 a little lower, and perhaps this year a about at 50%. When it comes down to it, though, unless there are significant injuries, Tonka and BSM will be seeded #1 and #2 (in either order) in Section 6. Now to win State, you need to win 6 playoff games. The regular season won't matter too much at this point. BSM should be hungrier with a lot to prove, Minnetonka has the experience, but will they have as much motivation as BSM? Lakeville North, Eagan, and Edina have (relatively) easy routes to state again. Probably easy for Anoka, too. (EP will be a little tougher, so Edina won't quite get yet another free pass). Yes, I realize that there are other strong teams.
Take BSM or Tonka, whoever survives. The first game of the playoffs should be easy, the second game poses a fairly legitimate upset threat, and the 3rd game is the one we're waiting for. At State, the first game should be relatively easy, with the seeding format, but games 2 and 3 will be tough. So, 4 out of 6 challenging games for BSM or Tonka, 1 of them excruciatingly so. For the remaining favorites, 2 out of 6 challenging games, both at State. Of course, 1 of those 2 likely against BSM or Tonka, but much less chance to stumble along the way, and anything can happen in a 1-game series. Looking at it this way, a tougher road for either BSM or Tonka than the next tier of teams with easy sections.
Take BSM or Tonka, whoever survives. The first game of the playoffs should be easy, the second game poses a fairly legitimate upset threat, and the 3rd game is the one we're waiting for. At State, the first game should be relatively easy, with the seeding format, but games 2 and 3 will be tough. So, 4 out of 6 challenging games for BSM or Tonka, 1 of them excruciatingly so. For the remaining favorites, 2 out of 6 challenging games, both at State. Of course, 1 of those 2 likely against BSM or Tonka, but much less chance to stumble along the way, and anything can happen in a 1-game series. Looking at it this way, a tougher road for either BSM or Tonka than the next tier of teams with easy sections.