AA Rankings for 1/22/12
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AA Rankings for 1/22/12
It was a busy week in high school hockey. The ‘93 Jefferson Jaguars can sip their champagne after the last AA undefeated team went down, and a rule change set off heavy debate over how the new major penalties will affect major teams. Whatever one thinks of the rule, its impact over the past week was clear, and it’s worth thinking about what this means for the teams going forward. I don’t think one week is a large enough sample size to make any real alterations to the rankings; we’ll see if the referees continue to call things as tightly as they have, and only after a few weeks will we be able to see if certain teams have benefited or suffered as a result.
On to the rankings:
1. Minnetonka (16-2)
-An emphatic win over Duluth East gives the Skippers revenge for the Schwan Cup meeting and catapults them into the top spot for the first time this year. The win more than made up for the tight loss to Edina earlier in the week, and shows that any adjustment period for the rule change was momentary. Still, we can’t get too excited over one game: their #1 raking is tenuous and the road ahead is not easy, with a brutal stretch of Lake Conference play over the next two weeks. But for now, it’s the Skippers’ time to reign. If they run the table they deserve the top seed at State, no matter what anyone else does.
This week: Thurs vs. #8 Wayzata, Sat at #9 Eden Prairie
2. Duluth East (17-1)
-The overall resume may still be the best in the state, and yes, they need to get all of their players back. But a nasty loss against Minnetonka puts to death any aura of invincibility around the Hounds, who will now need to show they can respond to some adversity. Championship teams don’t lose games 9-3. The good news: East’s schedule eases up considerably from here on out, meaning they’ll have a chance to get healthy and back on track.
This week: Tues at Forest Lake
3. Eagan (14-2)
-Choosing a #1 is not easy, but there could be just as big an argument over #3; I’ve decided to go with the team with momentum and nudge Eagan up. The offensive outburst for the Wildcats continued this past week, as they hung 8 points on a decent Prior Lake squad and survived a tight battle against Lakeville South. They are in pretty good position to run the table in the regular season, though Hill-Murray and a re-match with Burnsville loom. Three games this week, though they beat the best of these teams, Lakeville North, 10-1 in the first meeting.
This week: Tues vs. East Ridge, Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat at Rosemount
4. Maple Grove (15-1-2)
-It’s hard to drop a team that takes 60 shots on goal in a game, but their inability to finish off Andover raises some longstanding doubts about a program that has yet to make it through to State. The tie comes at an interesting time, with a re-match versus nemesis Blaine looming. If the Crimson can take control, it will put some of my doubts to rest and at least give them a chance to move back up.
This week: Thurs vs. #15 Blaine, Sat at Robbinsdale Armstrong
5. Edina (14-3)
-A big win over Minnetonka cements the Hornets in the top five and assures us they’re a legitimate state title contender. Given that Minnetonka is now #1, there’s an argument for putting them higher, but they are still 1-3 against the teams in front of them. The improvement is clear; we’ll see if they can carry that over into a run for the Lake title. For whatever reason, the Hornets have struggled mightily against Wayzata the past two years, going 0-6; they try to end that streak on Saturday.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat vs. #8 Wayzata
6. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (12-4)
-Did what they’re expected to do against a couple of North Suburban teams, and EP’s loss frees them to slide up a spot in the rankings. After another easy conference game, they play a good Moorhead team for the second time.
This week: Thurs at Irondale, Sat vs. #7 Moorhead
7. Moorhead (13-3)
-The Spuds shut down a pair of quality 8A teams this past week to keep themselves in a very comfortable position in the rankings. Their schedule always heats up around this time of year, and this time around is no exception: after the second meeting with Roseau, they make an overnight road trip to the Metro area that includes a second game against the Benilde team that beat them in December.
This week: Tues vs. Roseau, Fri at #6 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Centennial
8. Wayzata (11-4-1)
-A very strong win over Eden Prairie helps build some momentum for the Trojans, who have put together a very nice month of January. This team has struggled in past years down the stretch, but with a new coaching staff and this program’s incredible resources, are the tables finally turning? There’s a good chance we’ll find out this week, as they play at both Minnetonka and Edina.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat at #5 Edina
9. Eden Prairie (11-4-1)
-It was an interesting week for the Eagles, who dispatched of Hill-Murray on Tuesday and then came out flat in a Saturday contest with Wayzata. I think the Eagles are a bit better than they showed in that one, and as usual, they’ll have more chances to prove it this coming week as their brutal schedule goes on. The Lakeville South game is an intriguing one given the Cougars’ inconsistent season, and we’ll see how the defending champs handle the state’s new #1 at home.
This week: Tues at #11 Lakeville South, Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka
10. Hill-Murray (10-5)
-A loss to Eden Prairie keeps the early-season theme going; they’re a #10 or so team, certainly, but they’re a step or two behind when they play the teams above them. More conference play this week, but they are on the road against the two teams that are capable of beating them. They beat St. Thomas and Mahtomedi 2-1 and 3-1, respectively, in mid-December.
This week: Thurs at St. Thomas Academy, Sat at Mahtomedi
11. Lakeville South (9-6)
-A strong win against Burnsville and a second one-goal loss to Eagan sends the Cougars vaulting back up through the rankings. There are still those two ugly losses on the record, but for the most part they’ve proven their offensive prowess and ability to hang in there against top teams. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt for now. Eden Prairie is the next test, though they have two easy conference games after that.
This week: Tues vs. #9 Eden Prairie, Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at Eastview
12. Andover (11-5-1)
-In case anyone thought this Huskies team was a total fluke, the tie with Maple Grove showed us otherwise. Clearly, a hot goalie helps, but they’ve shown they can stick around against top teams all season long. Games against Elk River, Centennial, and Blaine before the end of the season will give them a serious test, but for now, they get to rest on their laurels and enjoy a single game against a beatable NWSC team this week.
This week: Sat vs. Osseo
13. Grand Rapids (13-5)
-It was a solid week for the Thunderhawks, who took down section rival Cloquet, conference rival Hibbing, and Hockey Day opponent White Bear Lake in steady fashion. They stay up north for the rest of the season, with a Bemidji re-match on the schedule this week.
This week: Tues vs. Bemidji, Fri vs. International Falls
14. Burnsville (10-7-1)
-A tough loss to Lakeville South continues the recent rough stretch for the Blaze, though the win over Rosemount shows they can still score in bunches when they want. This team does not have a top-20 win since December 8th. The schedule eases up a bit now, which gives them a chance to strengthen the record, though they can’t take Jefferson for granted.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Bloomington Jefferson
15. Blaine (11-5)
-A head-scratching loss to Champlin Park sends the Bengals tumbling, and now they have to go on the road to play Maple Grove. Andover is the only currently ranked team they’ve beaten, and things have not come easily outside the comfort of the NWSC. Still, they have the front-end talent to make things interesting in both the conference and the section if enough goes right.
This week: Thurs at #4 Maple Grove, Sat vs. Elk River
Bubble Teams
Centennial (9-7-1)
-A pair of conference wins keep the Cougars ticking along just outside of the rankings. Their next four games are all against top-twenty teams, including a trip to Elk River and a home game against Moorhead this week. A win in more than one of those four games will probably get the Cougars back into the rankings.
Elk River (9-7-1)
-A questionable loss to Anoka comes at a bad time for the Elks, who have been sliding backwards all January. They need to get things together in a hurry: their next three games (two this week) are against Centennial, Blaine, and Andover.
Cloquet (13-5)
-Played Grand Rapids tighter than they did the first time around, so there’s no real reason to move them; they’ve become very comfortable in this #18 spot. Three games this week, but the only serious challenge will probably come from Duluth Marshall.
Apple Valley (8-6-2)
-Gave East a pretty good game, then shut out two SSC opponents. Can really solidify their place in the top 20 with wins over Prior Lake and Lakeville North--two teams right below them--this week. They beat both of them in mid-December.
Brainerd (15-3)
-I haven’t said much about this team due to their weak schedule and losses to the decent 8AA teams they have played, but a convincing win over Roseau puts the Warriors back on the radar in the section. No more difficult games until their second meeting with the Rams in mid-February.
Prior Lake (10-7)
-Making sense of this team has become a fruitless endeavor. Two lopsided losses to top teams, two narrow wins over top teams, 3-2 against other teams generously considered on the edge of the rankings, and three losses that make little sense. We’ll throw them here and see what they do against Apple Valley this week.
Lakeville North (9-8)
-A win over Jefferson coupled with a loss Prior Lake keeps them hovering in the low 20s in the rakings. Big tests this week against Eagan and Apple Valley.
White Bear Lake (9-8-1)
-There are some questionable losses on the record, but they remain at the top of the SEC and their last two games against non-conference teams (vs. Edina and Grand Rapids) have each been one goal losses, which is better than anyone else in the SEC can say.
Beyond that we have our usual collection of SEC teams and 8AA teams like Roseau and Bemidji, along with some of the okay 2AA teams.
One month until sections--enjoy the ride.
On to the rankings:
1. Minnetonka (16-2)
-An emphatic win over Duluth East gives the Skippers revenge for the Schwan Cup meeting and catapults them into the top spot for the first time this year. The win more than made up for the tight loss to Edina earlier in the week, and shows that any adjustment period for the rule change was momentary. Still, we can’t get too excited over one game: their #1 raking is tenuous and the road ahead is not easy, with a brutal stretch of Lake Conference play over the next two weeks. But for now, it’s the Skippers’ time to reign. If they run the table they deserve the top seed at State, no matter what anyone else does.
This week: Thurs vs. #8 Wayzata, Sat at #9 Eden Prairie
2. Duluth East (17-1)
-The overall resume may still be the best in the state, and yes, they need to get all of their players back. But a nasty loss against Minnetonka puts to death any aura of invincibility around the Hounds, who will now need to show they can respond to some adversity. Championship teams don’t lose games 9-3. The good news: East’s schedule eases up considerably from here on out, meaning they’ll have a chance to get healthy and back on track.
This week: Tues at Forest Lake
3. Eagan (14-2)
-Choosing a #1 is not easy, but there could be just as big an argument over #3; I’ve decided to go with the team with momentum and nudge Eagan up. The offensive outburst for the Wildcats continued this past week, as they hung 8 points on a decent Prior Lake squad and survived a tight battle against Lakeville South. They are in pretty good position to run the table in the regular season, though Hill-Murray and a re-match with Burnsville loom. Three games this week, though they beat the best of these teams, Lakeville North, 10-1 in the first meeting.
This week: Tues vs. East Ridge, Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat at Rosemount
4. Maple Grove (15-1-2)
-It’s hard to drop a team that takes 60 shots on goal in a game, but their inability to finish off Andover raises some longstanding doubts about a program that has yet to make it through to State. The tie comes at an interesting time, with a re-match versus nemesis Blaine looming. If the Crimson can take control, it will put some of my doubts to rest and at least give them a chance to move back up.
This week: Thurs vs. #15 Blaine, Sat at Robbinsdale Armstrong
5. Edina (14-3)
-A big win over Minnetonka cements the Hornets in the top five and assures us they’re a legitimate state title contender. Given that Minnetonka is now #1, there’s an argument for putting them higher, but they are still 1-3 against the teams in front of them. The improvement is clear; we’ll see if they can carry that over into a run for the Lake title. For whatever reason, the Hornets have struggled mightily against Wayzata the past two years, going 0-6; they try to end that streak on Saturday.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat vs. #8 Wayzata
6. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (12-4)
-Did what they’re expected to do against a couple of North Suburban teams, and EP’s loss frees them to slide up a spot in the rankings. After another easy conference game, they play a good Moorhead team for the second time.
This week: Thurs at Irondale, Sat vs. #7 Moorhead
7. Moorhead (13-3)
-The Spuds shut down a pair of quality 8A teams this past week to keep themselves in a very comfortable position in the rankings. Their schedule always heats up around this time of year, and this time around is no exception: after the second meeting with Roseau, they make an overnight road trip to the Metro area that includes a second game against the Benilde team that beat them in December.
This week: Tues vs. Roseau, Fri at #6 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at Centennial
8. Wayzata (11-4-1)
-A very strong win over Eden Prairie helps build some momentum for the Trojans, who have put together a very nice month of January. This team has struggled in past years down the stretch, but with a new coaching staff and this program’s incredible resources, are the tables finally turning? There’s a good chance we’ll find out this week, as they play at both Minnetonka and Edina.
This week: Thurs at #1 Minnetonka, Sat at #5 Edina
9. Eden Prairie (11-4-1)
-It was an interesting week for the Eagles, who dispatched of Hill-Murray on Tuesday and then came out flat in a Saturday contest with Wayzata. I think the Eagles are a bit better than they showed in that one, and as usual, they’ll have more chances to prove it this coming week as their brutal schedule goes on. The Lakeville South game is an intriguing one given the Cougars’ inconsistent season, and we’ll see how the defending champs handle the state’s new #1 at home.
This week: Tues at #11 Lakeville South, Sat vs. #1 Minnetonka
10. Hill-Murray (10-5)
-A loss to Eden Prairie keeps the early-season theme going; they’re a #10 or so team, certainly, but they’re a step or two behind when they play the teams above them. More conference play this week, but they are on the road against the two teams that are capable of beating them. They beat St. Thomas and Mahtomedi 2-1 and 3-1, respectively, in mid-December.
This week: Thurs at St. Thomas Academy, Sat at Mahtomedi
11. Lakeville South (9-6)
-A strong win against Burnsville and a second one-goal loss to Eagan sends the Cougars vaulting back up through the rankings. There are still those two ugly losses on the record, but for the most part they’ve proven their offensive prowess and ability to hang in there against top teams. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt for now. Eden Prairie is the next test, though they have two easy conference games after that.
This week: Tues vs. #9 Eden Prairie, Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at Eastview
12. Andover (11-5-1)
-In case anyone thought this Huskies team was a total fluke, the tie with Maple Grove showed us otherwise. Clearly, a hot goalie helps, but they’ve shown they can stick around against top teams all season long. Games against Elk River, Centennial, and Blaine before the end of the season will give them a serious test, but for now, they get to rest on their laurels and enjoy a single game against a beatable NWSC team this week.
This week: Sat vs. Osseo
13. Grand Rapids (13-5)
-It was a solid week for the Thunderhawks, who took down section rival Cloquet, conference rival Hibbing, and Hockey Day opponent White Bear Lake in steady fashion. They stay up north for the rest of the season, with a Bemidji re-match on the schedule this week.
This week: Tues vs. Bemidji, Fri vs. International Falls
14. Burnsville (10-7-1)
-A tough loss to Lakeville South continues the recent rough stretch for the Blaze, though the win over Rosemount shows they can still score in bunches when they want. This team does not have a top-20 win since December 8th. The schedule eases up a bit now, which gives them a chance to strengthen the record, though they can’t take Jefferson for granted.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Bloomington Jefferson
15. Blaine (11-5)
-A head-scratching loss to Champlin Park sends the Bengals tumbling, and now they have to go on the road to play Maple Grove. Andover is the only currently ranked team they’ve beaten, and things have not come easily outside the comfort of the NWSC. Still, they have the front-end talent to make things interesting in both the conference and the section if enough goes right.
This week: Thurs at #4 Maple Grove, Sat vs. Elk River
Bubble Teams
Centennial (9-7-1)
-A pair of conference wins keep the Cougars ticking along just outside of the rankings. Their next four games are all against top-twenty teams, including a trip to Elk River and a home game against Moorhead this week. A win in more than one of those four games will probably get the Cougars back into the rankings.
Elk River (9-7-1)
-A questionable loss to Anoka comes at a bad time for the Elks, who have been sliding backwards all January. They need to get things together in a hurry: their next three games (two this week) are against Centennial, Blaine, and Andover.
Cloquet (13-5)
-Played Grand Rapids tighter than they did the first time around, so there’s no real reason to move them; they’ve become very comfortable in this #18 spot. Three games this week, but the only serious challenge will probably come from Duluth Marshall.
Apple Valley (8-6-2)
-Gave East a pretty good game, then shut out two SSC opponents. Can really solidify their place in the top 20 with wins over Prior Lake and Lakeville North--two teams right below them--this week. They beat both of them in mid-December.
Brainerd (15-3)
-I haven’t said much about this team due to their weak schedule and losses to the decent 8AA teams they have played, but a convincing win over Roseau puts the Warriors back on the radar in the section. No more difficult games until their second meeting with the Rams in mid-February.
Prior Lake (10-7)
-Making sense of this team has become a fruitless endeavor. Two lopsided losses to top teams, two narrow wins over top teams, 3-2 against other teams generously considered on the edge of the rankings, and three losses that make little sense. We’ll throw them here and see what they do against Apple Valley this week.
Lakeville North (9-8)
-A win over Jefferson coupled with a loss Prior Lake keeps them hovering in the low 20s in the rakings. Big tests this week against Eagan and Apple Valley.
White Bear Lake (9-8-1)
-There are some questionable losses on the record, but they remain at the top of the SEC and their last two games against non-conference teams (vs. Edina and Grand Rapids) have each been one goal losses, which is better than anyone else in the SEC can say.
Beyond that we have our usual collection of SEC teams and 8AA teams like Roseau and Bemidji, along with some of the okay 2AA teams.
One month until sections--enjoy the ride.
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It's funny how when it comes to tradition the more things change the more they stay the same. At the start of the year it seemed Edina, Hill, and Moorhead were not too much in consideration and now that things are starting to heat up they are within striking distance. I wouldn't be too suprised to see one of these team make it to the final.
I can splash in the rink puddles!
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Nah. Flying under the radar is better. Not that this is possible (flying under the radar) with East, Tonka, Eagan and Maple Grove, but it might turn out to be good to have East lose a game. In the regular season, that is. No need for a repeat of '97.PuckU126 wrote:East should've remained atop the State. How can you turn your back on the Hounds, Karl?

Lee
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Let's just hope they don't turn into the Packers. Right, Karl?east hockey wrote:Nah. Flying under the radar is better. Not that this is possible (flying under the radar) with East, Tonka, Eagan and Maple Grove, but it might turn out to be good to have East lose a game. In the regular season, that is. No need for a repeat of '97.PuckU126 wrote:East should've remained atop the State. How can you turn your back on the Hounds, Karl?
Lee


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For now:rapidsrapids wrote:Karl, what is your take on the current 7AA seedings and the outlook for each team moving up or down?
1. East
2. Andover (needs to beat ER again to stay here)
3. Grand Rapids (ER/Andover game will probably determine their fate; could go up to 2 or down to 4
4. Elk River (tanking and needs to bounce back, but the win over GR is still worth something)
5. Cloquet (nice record, but no real quality wins; will need some help to go higher)
6. Forest Lake (no wins vs. teams above them)
As for knocking East down from #1, I'm going to need to see how they respond before I decide how confident I am in them. Will this be the kick they needed to get things back in order, or is it the seed of doubt that could lead to disaster? The past few years, late-season losses have been the former; in some of the years before that, it was the latter.
If they're not careful, they certainly could go the way of the Packers. (Or, if we want a hockey example, that Minnetonka team 2 years ago that was undefeated until a late-season loss to Edina that then fell flat in a re-match with the Hornets at State.) These Hounds have proven they have the potential to beat anyone; now it's time to test their mental toughness.
But on the other hand, one of the real strengths of last year's team was its ability to go back to work after a tough loss or bad goal and pull it out in the end. No obstacle was too big; they just went back to work and got the job done. A lot of the same players are still around--time to see if they still have it.
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I agree with your take. I think it's mucked up at 2-4 and the Andover/ER rematch is huge. I think if Andover wins you have to drop Elk River to 4. Their win over Rapids wouldn't be enough to overcome more section losses than Rapids, and that ugly loss to Anoka yesterday is gonna look glaring when comparing these teams. I think Rapids needs to run the table to get a chance at #2, and if they do run the table they are at least 3. At 20-5 with their schedule, it would be a crime to put them at 4.
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Re: AA Rankings for 1/22/12
I think the Cougars are going to be on this list for a while. Seems to me that teams like LS that are built around one or two star players benefit greatly from the rule changes (as they were called this past week).karl(east) wrote: 11. Lakeville South (9-6)
-A strong win against Burnsville and a second one-goal loss to Eagan sends the Cougars vaulting back up through the rankings. There are still those two ugly losses on the record, but for the most part they’ve proven their offensive prowess and ability to hang in there against top teams. I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt for now. Eden Prairie is the next test, though they have two easy conference games after that.
This week: Tues vs. #9 Eden Prairie, Thurs at Rosemount, Sat at Eastview
Opponents can't wear Kloos down by aggressively putting bodies on him like they may have earlier in the season. As the number of power plays increases, the need to put a relatively weaker second or third line out on the ice decreases. There's also less back and forth down the ice, so the superstars can conserve energy and be out on the ice even more than they are already. And finally, you've got Kloos out there during all of these 5 minute majors.
Karl, I’ll have to say I agree with you rankings for the most part except for moving Tonka into first and dropping Maple Grove behind Eagan. Not suet if you gave some credit to Minnetonka for losing a close game. But they also beat what I consider to be a depleted East team. I understand giving credit for a win but not for a close loss.
In your 01-15-12 rankings you said that “A second win over Edina keeps the Crimson within striking distance of the top spot” But instead you seem to have penalized Maple Grove for a tie against a pretty good Andover team on the road. Sometimes you just run into a hot goalie right?
Maple Grove has beaten BSM twice at their house, also beat Edina twice(once at their house and the other at a neutral site). They tied Wayzata on the road but then beat them at the SLP tourney. In fact their only loss was to your squad and who hasn't loss to them (except Eagan). Guess I’m not sure why you have given a team with no top ten wins so much respect? For all I know they may win the state title. But for right now I’d like to hear your reasoning for the swap.
Record against the current top ten teams:
#1. Minnetonka 6-2-0
#2. Duluth East 5-1-0
#3. Eagan 0-2-0
#4. Maple Grove 6-1-1
#5. Edina 2-3-0
#6. BSM 2-3-0
#7. Moorhead 2-3-0
#8. Wayzata 2-3-1
#9. Eden Prairie 2-4-0
#10. Hill Murray 0-4-0
In your 01-15-12 rankings you said that “A second win over Edina keeps the Crimson within striking distance of the top spot” But instead you seem to have penalized Maple Grove for a tie against a pretty good Andover team on the road. Sometimes you just run into a hot goalie right?
Maple Grove has beaten BSM twice at their house, also beat Edina twice(once at their house and the other at a neutral site). They tied Wayzata on the road but then beat them at the SLP tourney. In fact their only loss was to your squad and who hasn't loss to them (except Eagan). Guess I’m not sure why you have given a team with no top ten wins so much respect? For all I know they may win the state title. But for right now I’d like to hear your reasoning for the swap.
Record against the current top ten teams:
#1. Minnetonka 6-2-0
#2. Duluth East 5-1-0
#3. Eagan 0-2-0
#4. Maple Grove 6-1-1
#5. Edina 2-3-0
#6. BSM 2-3-0
#7. Moorhead 2-3-0
#8. Wayzata 2-3-1
#9. Eden Prairie 2-4-0
#10. Hill Murray 0-4-0
I have to say I didn't expect 1-3 to change at all. All 3 teams took their lumps this week, but nothing significant to move up or down. Teams are shuffling line-ups (for whatever reasons) and doing some discovery.
Minnetonka wasn't sitting comfortably at #2, then took a loss on home ice.
Then they host a depleted DE team (again) which (at best) would have earned them their spot back.
While midseason rankings are trivial... this part stumps me a little as well.
Minnetonka wasn't sitting comfortably at #2, then took a loss on home ice.
Then they host a depleted DE team (again) which (at best) would have earned them their spot back.
While midseason rankings are trivial... this part stumps me a little as well.
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Thanks for the questions on the top 4--I was definitely expecting some dissent. Bear with me.
I agree that the 0-2 record against top teams is a bit of a scar on Eagan's record, but I think they deserve some credit for several things, including 2 wins over a tough Lakeville South team and some very large margins of victory over some pretty good teams (most notably Burnsville; also Apple Valley, Lakeville North, and Prior Lake).
I will disagree about Tonka not sitting comfortably at #2 before this past week--in my book they were. And in subjective rankings, we can give more weight to certain games. With all due respect to the Tonka-Edina rivalry, I think Tonka's game with East was the biggest one they've played so far, and they responded brilliantly.
Also, I'll freely admit that there are some gut feelings creeping into the rankings this week. Maple Grove is a prime example: they're a great team with a lot of very nice wins, but they were last year too and couldn't break through. The Andover tie is the sort of game that makes me wonder if it may turn into "here we go again." It may be nothing, but I thought it was worth noting.
The same thing applies to East. For the past five years, I've had a gut instinct about East teams by mid-February, and each time it's proven right. (07-09, I sensed signs of struggle; 09-10, I was pleased with what I saw.) I'm not ready to make the call one way or the other yet on this year's Hounds--as I explained above, I'm waiting to see how they react.
This is a very inexact science, of course, and I've had instincts that were wrong plenty of times. But I figure I might as well throw them out there. In a sport like this, where we're dealing with high schoolers and single-elimination playoffs, confidence and mental toughness plays a huge role. I could try to pretend that these things don't exist since I can't "see" them, but to me, that misses the whole point of a subjective ranking--we can speculate on things that we can't see in mathematical formulas. It makes for great discussion, and sometimes we can come up with an explanation for why things happen that we wouldn't be able to find elsewhere. So, long story short: I dropped East and MG in part as a way to point out that those two teams are on watch for how they respond to a questionable result.
Having said all of that, I will also point out that I have the exact same top five as PS2 (and I did my rankings before PS2 came out).
I agree that the 0-2 record against top teams is a bit of a scar on Eagan's record, but I think they deserve some credit for several things, including 2 wins over a tough Lakeville South team and some very large margins of victory over some pretty good teams (most notably Burnsville; also Apple Valley, Lakeville North, and Prior Lake).
I will disagree about Tonka not sitting comfortably at #2 before this past week--in my book they were. And in subjective rankings, we can give more weight to certain games. With all due respect to the Tonka-Edina rivalry, I think Tonka's game with East was the biggest one they've played so far, and they responded brilliantly.
Also, I'll freely admit that there are some gut feelings creeping into the rankings this week. Maple Grove is a prime example: they're a great team with a lot of very nice wins, but they were last year too and couldn't break through. The Andover tie is the sort of game that makes me wonder if it may turn into "here we go again." It may be nothing, but I thought it was worth noting.
The same thing applies to East. For the past five years, I've had a gut instinct about East teams by mid-February, and each time it's proven right. (07-09, I sensed signs of struggle; 09-10, I was pleased with what I saw.) I'm not ready to make the call one way or the other yet on this year's Hounds--as I explained above, I'm waiting to see how they react.
This is a very inexact science, of course, and I've had instincts that were wrong plenty of times. But I figure I might as well throw them out there. In a sport like this, where we're dealing with high schoolers and single-elimination playoffs, confidence and mental toughness plays a huge role. I could try to pretend that these things don't exist since I can't "see" them, but to me, that misses the whole point of a subjective ranking--we can speculate on things that we can't see in mathematical formulas. It makes for great discussion, and sometimes we can come up with an explanation for why things happen that we wouldn't be able to find elsewhere. So, long story short: I dropped East and MG in part as a way to point out that those two teams are on watch for how they respond to a questionable result.
Having said all of that, I will also point out that I have the exact same top five as PS2 (and I did my rankings before PS2 came out).
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Nce rankings, Karl. Looks like the folks over at HockeyHub are in complete agreement with you.
This week just goes to show how any of those top teams can win on any given night. Tonka and Mappe Grove both had their off nights but they will both bounce back (Tonka already had the opportunity to). This should be an exciting finish to the season as now there are 4 Top 10 teams in Section 6AA. Tonka certainly doesn't have a free ride to the rubber match game against East in the championship game.
This week just goes to show how any of those top teams can win on any given night. Tonka and Mappe Grove both had their off nights but they will both bounce back (Tonka already had the opportunity to). This should be an exciting finish to the season as now there are 4 Top 10 teams in Section 6AA. Tonka certainly doesn't have a free ride to the rubber match game against East in the championship game.
But this East team is not in the same category as teams from previous years. Last year, Rapids outplayed them in the Section final, making many of us wonder if the best team was representing Section 7AA. Then, Randolph gets the switch flipped, the classic East forecheck resurfaces in St. Paul and people are then talking that the best team probably lost in the state final.karl(east) wrote:Thanks for the questions on the top 4--I was definitely expecting some dissent. Bear with me.
I agree that the 0-2 record against top teams is a bit of a scar on Eagan's record, but I think they deserve some credit for several things, including 2 wins over a tough Lakeville South team and some very large margins of victory over some pretty good teams (most notably Burnsville; also Apple Valley, Lakeville North, and Prior Lake).
I will disagree about Tonka not sitting comfortably at #2 before this past week--in my book they were. And in subjective rankings, we can give more weight to certain games. With all due respect to the Tonka-Edina rivalry, I think Tonka's game with East was the biggest one they've played so far, and they responded brilliantly.
Also, I'll freely admit that there are some gut feelings creeping into the rankings this week. Maple Grove is a prime example: they're a great team with a lot of very nice wins, but they were last year too and couldn't break through. The Andover tie is the sort of game that makes me wonder if it may turn into "here we go again." It may be nothing, but I thought it was worth noting.
The same thing applies to East. For the past five years, I've had a gut instinct about East teams by mid-February, and each time it's proven right. (07-09, I sensed signs of struggle; 09-10, I was pleased with what I saw.) I'm not ready to make the call one way or the other yet on this year's Hounds--as I explained above, I'm waiting to see how they react.
This is a very inexact science, of course, and I've had instincts that were wrong plenty of times. But I figure I might as well throw them out there. In a sport like this, where we're dealing with high schoolers and single-elimination playoffs, confidence and mental toughness plays a huge role. I could try to pretend that these things don't exist since I can't "see" them, but to me, that misses the whole point of a subjective ranking--we can speculate on things that we can't see in mathematical formulas. It makes for great discussion, and sometimes we can come up with an explanation for why things happen that we wouldn't be able to find elsewhere. So, long story short: I dropped East and MG in part as a way to point out that those two teams are on watch for how they respond to a questionable result.
Having said all of that, I will also point out that I have the exact same top five as PS2 (and I did my rankings before PS2 came out).
East essentially played Tonka without a second line, a second string goalie and their best defenseman was rusty and inconsequential. Tonka deserves to be #1; they have the best team right now. But, have no fear, Karl - once (if?) East gets its full team together, with a couple games to mesh the dudes into what Randolph has wanted all season, no team has a chance.
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Seriously dude, get off your high horse with this Duluth East team. All you've talked about the last few months is how East is unlike any other team of years past and no team can come close to touching them. I'm tired of reading your absurd statements about their greatness. I don't care who's out of the lineup, your team lost 9-3, there's no excuse for that. Yes, they have a very good team, but to say that no team has a chance against them is just plain arrogant and narrow-minded.mnmouth wrote:But this East team is not in the same category as teams from previous years. Last year, Rapids outplayed them in the Section final, making many of us wonder if the best team was representing Section 7AA. Then, Randolph gets the switch flipped, the classic East forecheck resurfaces in St. Paul and people are then talking that the best team probably lost in the state final.karl(east) wrote:Thanks for the questions on the top 4--I was definitely expecting some dissent. Bear with me.
I agree that the 0-2 record against top teams is a bit of a scar on Eagan's record, but I think they deserve some credit for several things, including 2 wins over a tough Lakeville South team and some very large margins of victory over some pretty good teams (most notably Burnsville; also Apple Valley, Lakeville North, and Prior Lake).
I will disagree about Tonka not sitting comfortably at #2 before this past week--in my book they were. And in subjective rankings, we can give more weight to certain games. With all due respect to the Tonka-Edina rivalry, I think Tonka's game with East was the biggest one they've played so far, and they responded brilliantly.
Also, I'll freely admit that there are some gut feelings creeping into the rankings this week. Maple Grove is a prime example: they're a great team with a lot of very nice wins, but they were last year too and couldn't break through. The Andover tie is the sort of game that makes me wonder if it may turn into "here we go again." It may be nothing, but I thought it was worth noting.
The same thing applies to East. For the past five years, I've had a gut instinct about East teams by mid-February, and each time it's proven right. (07-09, I sensed signs of struggle; 09-10, I was pleased with what I saw.) I'm not ready to make the call one way or the other yet on this year's Hounds--as I explained above, I'm waiting to see how they react.
This is a very inexact science, of course, and I've had instincts that were wrong plenty of times. But I figure I might as well throw them out there. In a sport like this, where we're dealing with high schoolers and single-elimination playoffs, confidence and mental toughness plays a huge role. I could try to pretend that these things don't exist since I can't "see" them, but to me, that misses the whole point of a subjective ranking--we can speculate on things that we can't see in mathematical formulas. It makes for great discussion, and sometimes we can come up with an explanation for why things happen that we wouldn't be able to find elsewhere. So, long story short: I dropped East and MG in part as a way to point out that those two teams are on watch for how they respond to a questionable result.
Having said all of that, I will also point out that I have the exact same top five as PS2 (and I did my rankings before PS2 came out).
East essentially played Tonka without a second line, a second string goalie and their best defenseman was rusty and inconsequential. Tonka deserves to be #1; they have the best team right now. But, have no fear, Karl - once (if?) East gets its full team together, with a couple games to mesh the dudes into what Randolph has wanted all season, no team has a chance.
This is East team is not my team, though I am a fan of northern hockey. You will continue to read my absurd comments about this East club because, absurd or not, it's true. Once they get their team back and playing together, no one will touch them.Roseauverrated wrote:Seriously dude, get off your high horse with this Duluth East team. All you've talked about the last few months is how East is unlike any other team of years past and no team can come close to touching them. I'm tired of reading your absurd statements about their greatness. I don't care who's out of the lineup, your team lost 9-3, there's no excuse for that. Yes, they have a very good team, but to say that no team has a chance against them is just plain arrogant and narrow-minded.mnmouth wrote:But this East team is not in the same category as teams from previous years. Last year, Rapids outplayed them in the Section final, making many of us wonder if the best team was representing Section 7AA. Then, Randolph gets the switch flipped, the classic East forecheck resurfaces in St. Paul and people are then talking that the best team probably lost in the state final.karl(east) wrote:Thanks for the questions on the top 4--I was definitely expecting some dissent. Bear with me.
I agree that the 0-2 record against top teams is a bit of a scar on Eagan's record, but I think they deserve some credit for several things, including 2 wins over a tough Lakeville South team and some very large margins of victory over some pretty good teams (most notably Burnsville; also Apple Valley, Lakeville North, and Prior Lake).
I will disagree about Tonka not sitting comfortably at #2 before this past week--in my book they were. And in subjective rankings, we can give more weight to certain games. With all due respect to the Tonka-Edina rivalry, I think Tonka's game with East was the biggest one they've played so far, and they responded brilliantly.
Also, I'll freely admit that there are some gut feelings creeping into the rankings this week. Maple Grove is a prime example: they're a great team with a lot of very nice wins, but they were last year too and couldn't break through. The Andover tie is the sort of game that makes me wonder if it may turn into "here we go again." It may be nothing, but I thought it was worth noting.
The same thing applies to East. For the past five years, I've had a gut instinct about East teams by mid-February, and each time it's proven right. (07-09, I sensed signs of struggle; 09-10, I was pleased with what I saw.) I'm not ready to make the call one way or the other yet on this year's Hounds--as I explained above, I'm waiting to see how they react.
This is a very inexact science, of course, and I've had instincts that were wrong plenty of times. But I figure I might as well throw them out there. In a sport like this, where we're dealing with high schoolers and single-elimination playoffs, confidence and mental toughness plays a huge role. I could try to pretend that these things don't exist since I can't "see" them, but to me, that misses the whole point of a subjective ranking--we can speculate on things that we can't see in mathematical formulas. It makes for great discussion, and sometimes we can come up with an explanation for why things happen that we wouldn't be able to find elsewhere. So, long story short: I dropped East and MG in part as a way to point out that those two teams are on watch for how they respond to a questionable result.
Having said all of that, I will also point out that I have the exact same top five as PS2 (and I did my rankings before PS2 came out).
East essentially played Tonka without a second line, a second string goalie and their best defenseman was rusty and inconsequential. Tonka deserves to be #1; they have the best team right now. But, have no fear, Karl - once (if?) East gets its full team together, with a couple games to mesh the dudes into what Randolph has wanted all season, no team has a chance.
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What if they don't get their team back and playing together?mnmouth wrote:This is East team is not my team, though I am a fan of northern hockey. You will continue to read my absurd comments about this East club because, absurd or not, it's true. Once they get their team back and playing together, no one will touch them.Roseauverrated wrote:Seriously dude, get off your high horse with this Duluth East team. All you've talked about the last few months is how East is unlike any other team of years past and no team can come close to touching them. I'm tired of reading your absurd statements about their greatness. I don't care who's out of the lineup, your team lost 9-3, there's no excuse for that. Yes, they have a very good team, but to say that no team has a chance against them is just plain arrogant and narrow-minded.mnmouth wrote: But this East team is not in the same category as teams from previous years. Last year, Rapids outplayed them in the Section final, making many of us wonder if the best team was representing Section 7AA. Then, Randolph gets the switch flipped, the classic East forecheck resurfaces in St. Paul and people are then talking that the best team probably lost in the state final.
East essentially played Tonka without a second line, a second string goalie and their best defenseman was rusty and inconsequential. Tonka deserves to be #1; they have the best team right now. But, have no fear, Karl - once (if?) East gets its full team together, with a couple games to mesh the dudes into what Randolph has wanted all season, no team has a chance.
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That's just the thing which concerns me, being Trevor Olson's return. Repensky's injury isn't as bad and he's been given the go-ahead to play again.HockeyGuy81 wrote:What if they don't get their team back and playing together?mnmouth wrote:This is East team is not my team, though I am a fan of northern hockey. You will continue to read my absurd comments about this East club because, absurd or not, it's true. Once they get their team back and playing together, no one will touch them.Roseauverrated wrote: Seriously dude, get off your high horse with this Duluth East team. All you've talked about the last few months is how East is unlike any other team of years past and no team can come close to touching them. I'm tired of reading your absurd statements about their greatness. I don't care who's out of the lineup, your team lost 9-3, there's no excuse for that. Yes, they have a very good team, but to say that no team has a chance against them is just plain arrogant and narrow-minded.
Lee
PageStat Guy on Bluesky
I would have said that. East would have won by 2 or more goals.MNHockeyFan wrote:And, who's to say Minnetonka wouldn't have won IF East had their team back and playing together?HockeyGuy81 wrote:What if they don't get their team back and playing together?
And if they don't get their team back and playing together they won't be that team. All is predicated on them having their complete team.
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East should stay #1.
Tonka sealed there spot at #2 with the loss to Edina.
Maple Grove holds at Number #3. 6-1-1 record vs. top 10 keeps them there.
these are the top 3 and I think there is a gap between them and any team you put at Number #4. Eagan hasnt played anything close to the schedules of the top 3 and has 2 losses compared to MG's 1 loss.
everything else looks spot on to me Karl.
Tonka sealed there spot at #2 with the loss to Edina.
Maple Grove holds at Number #3. 6-1-1 record vs. top 10 keeps them there.
these are the top 3 and I think there is a gap between them and any team you put at Number #4. Eagan hasnt played anything close to the schedules of the top 3 and has 2 losses compared to MG's 1 loss.
everything else looks spot on to me Karl.