Goalie Stats argument

[88keys]

I was at the many rinks of the Schwan's Cup this past weekend, and overall had a great time. Saw some old friends and met some new ones.....however, I got into sort of an argument with a goalie father who was ranting about his son's save percent stats. I just wanted to get everyone's thoughts. Heck, maybe I'm wrong, Lord knows that's quite possible...

Here was this loud mouth's rant: "My son's goalie stats are just as good as Franke or Bitzer, and he should be getting calls from college's soon".

I must have been in a surly mood, because I found a lot wrong with a statment like that, and decided to ask him a few questions. I was nice about it, I think....

Turns out his son plays for a team that is in the bottom 15% of all MN teams (according to PageStats or Mitch Hawkers numbers), plus he's getting around 8-12 shots per game on the average.


I'm NOT a big fan of pure stats (goalie stats or offensive stats), but I did point out that a 10 saves on 10 shots game against the worst team in the state is no where close to as impressive as a 41 out of 45 outing against Edina. He got real mad.

Was I way off base?????

[88keys]

Sorry, I should have stated "bottom 50%", not bottom "15%"......my fault.

[hockey4ever]

In my opinion looking only at a goalie's save % is not indicative of how good a goalie is. It can be a directional indicator but by itself not enough. I think you need to factor in a goalie's save %; their GAA; the quality of their team and the teams they play against to determine how good a goalie is. Unfortunately to my knowledge there is no mathematical model that will figure all that out so subjectivity starts to come into play.

From what I have seen the best goalies consistently give their team a chance to win, game in and game out; and when the competiton gets better their game elevates to a higher level.

[HShockeywatcher]

It is very hard to say which is "better" for various reasons. I know very littl about the recruiting/scouting process in high school hockey, so I won't begin to speculate. But I will give my two cents from both a mathematical and practical perspective.

Last year the MN twins learned just how valuable Joe Mauer was to the organization. Not only was he a great fantasy player, along with great defense which included getting the ball to 2nd faster than most in the MLB when he was a senior at Cretin, but he managed the rotation. He raised all of them, managed them in game and was a huge part of their success (as well as their failures when he wasn't there last year.
I don't know, but I suspect playing goalie is much like that.

I'm NOT a big fan of pure stats (goalie stats or offensive stats), but I did point out that a 10 saves on 10 shots game against the worst team in the state is no where close to as impressive as a 41 out of 45 outing against Edina. He got real mad.

Against Edina specifically, you are right 99% of the time, but how do you judge a guy like Alex Lyons from last year or whoever this year's top prospect is if they happen to be playing for one of "lower 50% of teams in the state" or even lower 15%?

Take Lyons off LOW last year and I suspect the team is not very good. But with them, they played close games with some pretty good teams.

There are numerous ways to approach the math side of it, with the simplest being "good thing games aren't played on paper." SOG are an interesting stat to me. In basketball they also track FG% (they do in hockey too, but not as much) and that is very important. In hockey they also talk about quality scoring chances. I remember a couple years ago there was a game where there were around 125 total SOG in a game that ended up like 5-3 or something. Lose that game and you still have around a 93% save percentage. Point being, many shots aren't "good saves."

If there was a reliable way to track "quality shots" then we could use that and it would be better. But there is much more that goes into it. Such as size.

Lots of different ways to use stats; many times the same stat can be used both to prove or disprove the same point.

It is interesting how when you pull up a team on the hub and when it pops up the team's stats leaders generally the backup goalie pops up because he save percentage is better.

[scarlethockey33]

With goalies there's so many factors that can factor into their success or failure, and that makes evaluating them so hard even for professional scouts. I mean you can't really judge purely by stats, but I understand how you can assume with the competition they play. I mean, even the best goaltenders can let in goals due to bad defense, which will lead to bad stats, and even some "average" goaltenders can seem amazing by their stats with a great defense in front of them. And the defense is just one of many factors. In general I think stats are deceiving, but they can definitely lead to some exposure from scouts. I think your assumption is right and I would make the same assumption myself, but really I don't think you can ever make a definite conclusion without watching the goalie yourself.

[puckulence]

IMO if the kid has not been called already he is not going to get any phone calls. All recruiting starts to take place as a 10th grader. So sorry to the Dad, because his kid will probably only get an offer from the MJ.

Curious to know if you can give a hint to the team this father was from? Or at least was division the team was playing in.

[PuckRanger]

It is interesting how when you pull up a team on the hub and when it pops up the team's stats leaders generally the backup goalie pops up because he save percentage is better.

And I think that right there says it all. Scouts will also be interested in the skating ability of the goalie, plus puck handling skills, and probably more importantly rebound control and overall form. No stats for that kind of stuff.

[88keys]

Wow - you guys gave me some great things to think about. Thanks!

Nope, I am not giving out any hints, I try really hard not to hurt feelings, I think the example of Alex Lyon (who is doing really well in Tier 1 US Juniors) is a valid point. A really great goalie helps his (or her) team play better and gives the team a chance to beat better teams.

[HShockeywatcher]

Wow - you guys gave me some great things to think about. Thanks!

Nope, I am not giving out any hints, I try really hard not to hurt feelings, I think the example of Alex Lyon (who is doing really well in Tier 1 US Juniors) is a valid point. A really great goalie helps his (or her) team play better and gives the team a chance to beat better teams.

...but a bad goalie could win games on a good team...

Put me between the pipes for the Skippers and their record would probably be the same. Put Lyons between the pipes for Eagan, Edina, Tonka, Mahtomedi, Lakeville South, Rapids, Moorhead, Rogers, Marshall, EGF and probably a few others, and they would slide into a 31-0 record and a state title.

They are one of the most important skaters on the ice and can make a good team great or a bad team average, but cannot make a bad team better than okay.

[mnhockfan99]

I think ultimately there are some stat benchmarks people look at - for all positions. As a coach I would think they simply want a G who consistently makes the saves they are supposed to make, and if they can make the other ones, you may have a special one. I don't think HS is a good indicator for a G looking to play after HS because the vast majority of HS players will never suit up after HS and the pace of the game and quality of shots, etc. is not going to give coaches a good enough gauge of if they can play at that level...I cannot remember the last HS goalie who played D1 without a stopin jrs., Ann Arbor, etc...but I sure could be wrong..

[HShockeywatcher]

I think ultimately there are some stat benchmarks people look at - for all positions. As a coach I would think they simply want a G who consistently makes the saves they are supposed to make, and if they can make the other ones, you may have a special one. I don't think HS is a good indicator for a G looking to play after HS because the vast majority of HS players will never suit up after HS and the pace of the game and quality of shots, etc. is not going to give coaches a good enough gauge of if they can play at that level...I cannot remember the last HS goalie who played D1 without a stopin jrs., Ann Arbor, etc...but I sure could be wrong..

most of us know that, but the real question is what takes to get there...

a. for the kid at a top 5 school....
b. for the kid at a bottom 5 school....

If the (a) kid is on a team that goes 31-0 but wins all games by 1 goal, what would make a scout look at him?
If the (b) kid is on a team that won one game and he allowed 3+ GA every game, what would make scout look at him?

[bubblehockey27]

I think ultimately there are some stat benchmarks people look at - for all positions. As a coach I would think they simply want a G who consistently makes the saves they are supposed to make, and if they can make the other ones, you may have a special one. I don't think HS is a good indicator for a G looking to play after HS because the vast majority of HS players will never suit up after HS and the pace of the game and quality of shots, etc. is not going to give coaches a good enough gauge of if they can play at that level...I cannot remember the last HS goalie who played D1 without a stopin jrs., Ann Arbor, etc...but I sure could be wrong..

most of us know that, but the real question is what takes to get there...

a. for the kid at a top 5 school....
b. for the kid at a bottom 5 school....

If the (a) kid is on a team that goes 31-0 but wins all games by 1 goal, what would make a scout look at him?
If the (b) kid is on a team that won one game and he allowed 3+ GA every game, what would make scout look at him?

Interesting topic to say the least. I work with goalies all over the metro so hopefully I'll be able to add a little to the convo.

I believe there are benchmarks for all positions, as stated earlier, but benchmarks for goalies are not based 100% on stats. I would guess in the goalie world, the benchmark is around .910 SV% or above, and <a 2.20GAA would be "great". There are so many other factors that play into this that it obviosuly cannot be based on stats alone. Of course you'll get the "good goalie on a bad team" scenario, or the "average goalie with a great team", but what's great now is that there are so many ways for goalies to play with elite competition. Scouts obviously know what they're looking for, and can usually tell right away if a goalie has "it".

Each year there are very few "elite" goaltenders playing HS. Looking back from year to year you can see certain goalies that demonstrate that they're ready for the next level of competition, while some need to develop a little more in Junior. There's a reason why you don't ever see 18 year old goalies getting the nod in the NHL, this is a very demanding position (dare I say most demanding in all of sports?), and development is essential.

I guess what I'm ultimately trying to say here is that stats do play a part of getting a goalie noticed, but it's not based on stats alone.

[seek & destroy]

It is interesting how when you pull up a team on the hub and when it pops up the team's stats leaders generally the backup goalie pops up because he save percentage is better.

And I think that right there says it all. Scouts will also be interested in the skating ability of the goalie, plus puck handling skills, and probably more importantly rebound control and overall form. No stats for that kind of stuff.

I agree 100%. One other thing they look at besides the ones you mentioned is their overall size. Most scouts are very much aware that goalie stats do not even begin to give a full picture of a goalie. The stats may put a goalie on a radar - especially their stats against top competition - but scouts look closely at all the things you mentioned before sending recommendations to the teams they are scouting for.

[zyzxx]

It is interesting how when you pull up a team on the hub and when it pops up the team's stats leaders generally the backup goalie pops up because he save percentage is better.

And I think that right there says it all. Scouts will also be interested in the skating ability of the goalie, plus puck handling skills, and probably more importantly rebound control and overall form. No stats for that kind of stuff.

I agree 100%. One other thing they look at besides the ones you mentioned is their overall size. Most scouts are very much aware that goalie stats do not even begin to give a full picture of a goalie. The stats may put a goalie on a radar - especially their stats against top competition - but scouts look closely at all the things you mentioned before sending recommendations to the teams they are scouting for.

Seek and Destroy- you forgot to add the importance of how well connected the goalie Dad is

[seek & destroy]

And I think that right there says it all. Scouts will also be interested in the skating ability of the goalie, plus puck handling skills, and probably more importantly rebound control and overall form. No stats for that kind of stuff.

I agree 100%. One other thing they look at besides the ones you mentioned is their overall size. Most scouts are very much aware that goalie stats do not even begin to give a full picture of a goalie. The stats may put a goalie on a radar - especially their stats against top competition - but scouts look closely at all the things you mentioned before sending recommendations to the teams they are scouting for.

Seek and Destroy- you forgot to add the importance of how well connected the goalie Dad is

Good point! Sometimes that's the most critical thing!

[mulefarm]

The bottom line is there isn't a lot of elite goalies develped in Mn. How many Mn goalies are there in the NHL? Mike Lee played on the U20 gold medal team, any other goalies lately? Stats are nice, but the scouts look at a lot more. Really, at the HS level, how many tough shots does a goalie face in a game. Has any Frank Brimsek winners made the NHL or All-American teams? I would say the weak point of Mn hockey is the development of goaltenders.

[mnhockfan99]

Agree with many of the things people have posted. One thing that is different with G than F/D are teams will bring in multiple D and F recruits most every year, but 1 G....or some years no goalie, depending on what they have on the roster at that time. That is why I think a lot of coaches have to see them play against high levels of competition and see if they perform with the consistency needed to be a factor at that level. You can make a mistake on a D or F recruit and it won't kill you, but do that on a G and it could be disastrous, as you only play 1 or 2 in a season, most years..

[slyer]

i agree with you mnhockfan99, all hs goalies play jrs or to ann arbor before colleges will commit, it's a tough deal

[BBgunner]

Weakness between the pipes in development is a truthful honest statement for the entire state. No program is immune to it and unfortunately by the time High School comes around some of them are so set in the position based on youth teams that they stop progressing or getting better. The starting A bantam goalie is gonna start for High School too so why bother, meanwhile A bantam goalie leaves and goes to private school now high school has a kid that was given up on and gave up on himself because someone was better than he was.
We now have multiple goalie training centers and programs and I think we will start producing more goalies with better numbers. But all in all we as a state have underachieved no disrespect to any of the goalies out there now or that have made it including Mr. Lyon who is on the first place team in the East division of the USHL right now.

[drop the puck]

Shots on goal does not provide a measure of quality saves. An average goalie on a great team does not see the same level of shots as a goalie on a below average team.

When two teams play and there is a large disparity in shots on goal. The team will lower shots on goal often get most of there shots from further out or off to the sides where the angles are poor. The number of real scoring opportunities is an input that is difficult if not impossible to measure on a goalie stat sheet.

[slyer]

save %, # of shots, schedule, ga, # of games played you can be #1 goalie in state and play only 10 games. you need to take all these factors together in order to get the best goalie

[bubblehockey27]

Has any Frank Brimsek winners made the NHL or All-American teams? I would say the weak point of Mn hockey is the development of goaltenders.

The only one I can think of is Alec Richards. I think he's still with the Blackhawks' farm team.