BANTAM A

[scorekeeper]

"just for fun" I totaled your predictions for teams East of 35W and north of anywhere. Teams included were Cent., DE, WBL, ER and Stillwater.
Combined prediction: 2-12-1, and the only wins were against each other.
Safe to say you are not a big fan of the North or East Metro hockey?

no bias or opinion whatsoever. many good friends in many of the east and north associations and lots of my favorite bantam players playing in those associations. If anything, I'll be rooting for most of those teams

just following the numbers produced by the experiment above (power rating subtract power rating), based largely on how those teams did as PeeWee A teams and factoring in speculative things like key additions/subtractions. If you go back and peak at the rankings produced by the experiment (based on the assumption that great PeeWee A teams become great Bantam A teams) then you'll see that those teams rank lower, hence, based on those ratings would come up short against the teams that rank higher

I'll be personally rooting for many of the east & north teams this season, and I am confident they do very well, but no doubt those teams will have their hands full at the preview this weekend against Shattuck, edina, Eden Prairie, Wayzata, OMG, Minnetonka and Burnsville. Tough, tough field

[chirp_chirp]

How do you all think the state tournament will go this year for Bantam A?? Give me teams and a winner!

[Blackhawkfan]

OK...I'll bite....Wayzata of course, because 'They have the best (no name) goalie in the state......'

To steal a line from the Gopher Students when the announcer says "Huskies at full strength...."

"That's debatable"

Lets make sure that we consider that just maybe have not seen every goalie in the State.

[Chuck Norris Fan]

Seen the Wayzata .. agreed! Very GOOD!

[Blackhawkfan]

If you are talking about (VA) I believe that he got lit up by Shattuck while playing for the 97 Blades this fall

6-1
5-4
7-2
7-2

Not the kind of numbers (GAA) that would be attributed to one of the best goalies in the state.......playing with one of the best summer programs in the state.

Hmmmm......

[scorekeeper]

well ... any good goalie parent will be quick to point out (and rightfully so) , it's not just the goalie who gives up goals. Consider the defense that was playing in front of him in those games ... and forwards as well

The Blades were playing without their top defenseman (CS), who coincidentally was playing for Shattuck.

Arguably the Blades top offensive weapons (RP) also dressed for Shattuck in those games.

Finally, those goals against are respectable when you consider that Shattuck offense *IS* the best in the State, and that is a much more reliable statement than can be made about any indvidual goaltender

[OneMoreYear]

well ... any good goalie parent will be quick to point out (and rightfully so) , it's not just the goalie who gives up goals. Consider the defense that was playing in front of him in those games ... and forwards as well

The Blades were playing without their top defenseman (CS), who coincidentally was playing for Shattuck.

Arguably the Blades top offensive weapons (RP) also dressed for Shattuck in those games.

Finally, those goals against are respectable when you consider that Shattuck offense *IS* the best in the State, and that is a much more reliable statement than can be made about any indvidual goaltender

All true scorekeeper, but as a marginally good goalie parent, I think (VA) gets a lot of attention due to his size, coupled with the results he has had over the last three years after moving to Wayzata, i.e., to your 1st point - a great team in front of him. There are a number of quality returning Bantam A goalies on equal and lesser teams that deserve equal billing. Not sure on names SINCE NONE ARE MY KID, but EP, Hopkins, B'ville (may have moved to H.S.), Eastview, and a few others could all be in that "best" conversation.

[Blackhawkfan]

well ... any good goalie parent will be quick to point out (and rightfully so) , it's not just the goalie who gives up goals. Consider the defense that was playing in front of him in those games ... and forwards as well

The Blades were playing without their top defenseman (CS), who coincidentally was playing for Shattuck.

Arguably the Blades top offensive weapons (RP) also dressed for Shattuck in those games.

Finally, those goals against are respectable when you consider that Shattuck offense *IS* the best in the State, and that is a much more reliable statement than can be made about any indvidual goaltender

All true scorekeeper, but as a marginally good goalie parent, I think (VA) gets a lot of attention due to his size, coupled with the results he has had over the last three years after moving to Wayzata, i.e., to your 1st point - a great team in front of him. There are a number of quality returning Bantam A goalies on equal and lesser teams that deserve equal billing. Not sure on names SINCE NONE ARE MY KID, but EP, Hopkins, B'ville (may have moved to H.S.), Eastview, and a few others could all be in that "best" conversation.

I couldn't agree more.......very well put

[hockeyoldtimer]

One More Year:
I agree with you I think there are several other Bantam A goalies who are better or as good as the Wayzata goalie. He is a solid goaltender who grew early. That's it.
In no order I think these goalies are as good or better.
1. Edina (Enrique)
2. EP
3. OMG(Cal)
4. Shattuck (Old Fire/Blades)
5. Burnsville
6. Lakeville South ?(old Machine goalie)

[Hockey guy1486]

Burnsville has 2 1st year goalies

[chirp_chirp]

Saw Osseo/Maple Grove play tonight. They have ALOT to work on....

[MGHockey12]

db did not go to RS -

9 Osseo Maple Grove 28-16-5 / 14.62 BETTER (16.62)

Same Top 10 cast is back from PWA along with the most improved Bantam forward in the State over the past 2 years (DB), the big addition of a former key Fire player and quite possibly the best bantam goaltender in Minnesota. They will be in the hunt to win it all.


I think DB went to play for the 97 Russel Stover team

[chief22]

How do you all think the state tournament will go this year for Bantam A?? Give me teams and a winner!

Elk River will win state. Too much depth to lose a game in D10.

[Ugottobekiddingme]

How do you all think the state tournament will go this year for Bantam A?? Give me teams and a winner!

Elk River will win state. Too much depth to lose a game in D10.

Whooa Chief...nutrition program is working but let's wait until module seven, "why Occupy MN when I already live here" before giving a bold prediction.

[scorekeeper]

Got playing around with my spread sheet tonight while watching some late night TV and got looking at the Bantam A teams in the State in a few different ways.

Now 2 or 3 weeks into the season, here's a quick snap-shot of how it would look if there was a State wide league, giving 2 points for a win and 1 point for a tie.

(Let me apologize in advance for missing games, which I am sure there are many)


Rank - Team - GP - Wins - Losses - Ties

1 Wayzata Trojans 10 8 1 1
2 Burnsville Blaze 7 3 0 4
3 Rogers Royals 6 5 1 0
4 Prior Lake Savage Lakers 7 4 1 2
5 Farmington Tigers 6 4 1 1
6 Rosemount Irish 8 4 3 1
7 Hermantown Hawks 4 4 0 0
8 Armstrong Cooper Falcons 4 4 0 0
9 Tartan Titans 6 3 1 2
10 Minneapolis Storm 6 3 1 2
11 St Michael-Albertville Knights 6 4 2 0
12 Osseo Maple Grove 7 3 2 2
13 Stillwater Stallions 7 4 3 0
14 Hopkins Royals 4 3 0 1
15 St Cloud Huskies 5 3 1 1
16 Eden Prairie Eagles 7 3 3 1
17 Minnetonka Skippers 7 3 3 1
18 Lakeville South 3 3 0 0
19 Highland Central Capitals 4 2 0 2
20 Andover Huskies 4 3 1 0
21 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 4 3 1 0
22 White Bear Lake Bears 5 3 2 0
23 Champlin Park Rebels 6 3 3 0
24 Edina Hornets 5 2 2 1
25 Chaska Hawks 5 2 2 1
26 Eastview Lightning 4 2 2 0
27 Cottage Grove Wolfpack 4 2 2 0
28 Sibley Generals 5 2 3 0
29 Roseville Raiders 5 2 3 0
30 Apple Valley Eagles 2 1 0 1
31 New Prague Trojans 6 1 4 1
32 Centennial Cougars 8 1 6 1
33 Lakeville North 1 1 0 0
34 Blaine Bengals 1 1 0 0
35 Buffalo Bison 2 1 1 0
36 Hibbing BlueJackets 2 1 1 0
37 Forest Lake Rangers 3 0 1 2
38 Bloomington Kennedy Eagles 3 1 2 0
39 Elk River Elks 3 1 2 0
40 Bloomington Jefferson Jaguars 3 1 2 0
41 Chisago Lakes Wildcats 3 1 2 0
42 Spring Lake Park Panthers 4 0 2 2
43 Duluth East 8 0 6 2
44 Woodbury Predators 2 0 1 1
45 Mankato Mavericks 2 0 1 1
46 Anoka Tornadoes 3 0 2 1
47 Brainerd Warriors 4 0 3 1
48 Shakopee Sabres 1 0 1 0
49 Red Wing Wingers 1 0 1 0
50 Rochester (Red) 1 0 1 0
51 Eagan Wildcats 1 0 1 0
52 New Ulm Eagles 1 0 1 0
53 Monticello (MAML) Moose 1 0 1 0
54 Coon Rapids Cardinals 1 0 1 0
55 Faribault Falcons 1 0 1 0
56 Mound Westonka White Hawks 1 0 1 0
57 Waconia Wildcats 1 0 1
58 St Louis Park Orioles 2 0 2 0
59 Orono Spartans 2 0 2 0
60 Proctor Rails 2 0 2 0
61 Hastings Raiders 2 0 2 0
62 Princeton Tigers 3 0 3 0
63 Mora Mustangs 3 0 3 0
64 Mounds View Mustangs 4 0 4 0

So, in this scenario, Wayzata easily sits #1 in the State by a wide margin. Burnsville is 2nd by virute of ZERO losses. Both of those teams have played very difficult schedules. In fact, Wayzata has played BY FAR the most difficult schedule in the State.

[scorekeeper]

Another way to look at it is by MARGIN OF VICTORY, which is the meat and potatoes of a Power ranking, like the ones you'll see posted by Jeff Sagarin, the BCS incorporates Power ratings ... also the MyHockeyRankings website.

When you rank the teams by MARGIN of VICTORY it looks a little different. In the legend below, TMV=TOTAL MARGIN OF VICTORY and AMV = AVERAGE MARGIN OF VICTORY

Rank - Team - GP - Wins - Losses - Ties - GF - GA - TMV - AMV

1 Wayzata Trojans 10 8 1 1 48 19 29 2.9
2 Osseo Maple Grove 7 3 2 2 35 18 17 2.4
3 Andover Huskies 4 3 1 0 28 11 17 4.3
4 Farmington Tigers 6 4 1 1 25 10 15 2.5
5 Rogers Royals 6 5 1 0 25 11 14 2.3
6 Prior Lake Savage Lakers 7 4 1 2 35 22 13 1.9
7 Hermantown Hawks 4 4 0 0 26 13 13 3.3
8 Lakeville South 3 3 0 0 20 7 13 4.3
9 Tartan Titans 6 3 1 2 22 12 10 1.7
10 Armstrong Cooper Falcons 4 4 0 0 19 10 9 2.3
11 Hopkins Royals 4 3 0 1 16 7 9 2.3
12 Bloomington Kennedy Eagles 3 1 2 0 15 6 9 3
13 Apple Valley Eagles 2 1 0 1 12 4 8 4
14 St Cloud Huskies 5 3 1 1 19 12 7 1.4
15 Burnsville Blaze 7 3 0 4 30 24 6 0.9
16 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 4 3 1 0 11 5 6 1.5
17 Rosemount Irish 8 4 3 1 34 29 5 0.6
18 Eden Prairie Eagles 7 3 3 1 28 23 5 0.7
19 Champlin Park Rebels 6 3 3 0 16 11 5 0.8
20 Lakeville North 1 1 0 0 5 0 5 5
21 Minneapolis Storm 6 3 1 2 22 18 4 0.7
22 St Michael-Albertville Knights 6 4 2 0 23 19 4 0.7
23 Edina Hornets 5 2 2 1 14 10 4 0.8
24 Stillwater Stallions 7 4 3 0 23 21 2 0.3
25 Highland Central Capitals 4 2 0 2 10 8 2 0.5
26 Chaska Hawks 5 2 2 1 21 19 2 0.4
27 Eastview Lightning 4 2 2 0 12 10 2 0.5
28 Blaine Bengals 1 1 0 0 5 4 1 1
29 Buffalo Bison 2 1 1 0 5 4 1 0.5
30 Woodbury Predators 2 0 1 1 7 6 1 0.5
31 Minnetonka Skippers 7 3 3 1 22 23 -1 -0.1
32 Sibley Generals 5 2 3 0 14 15 -1 -0.2
33 Roseville Raiders 5 2 3 0 18 19 -1 -0.2
34 Forest Lake Rangers 3 0 1 2 7 8 -1 -0.3
35 Shakopee Sabres 1 0 1 0 4 5 -1 -1
36 Hibbing BlueJackets 2 1 1 0 6 8 -2 -1
37 St Louis Park Orioles 2 0 2 0 3 5 -2 -1
38 Red Wing Wingers 1 0 1 0 2 5 -3 -3
39 Rochester (Red) 1 0 1 0 1 5 -4 -4
40 Mankato Mavericks 2 0 1 1 4 9 -5 -2.5
41 Eagan Wildcats 1 0 1 0 0 5 -5 -5
42 New Ulm Eagles 1 0 1 0 1 6 -5 -5
43 Monticello (MAML) Moose 1 0 1 0 4 9 -5 -5
44 White Bear Lake Bears 5 3 2 0 18 24 -6 -1.2
45 Cottage Grove Wolfpack 4 2 2 0 11 17 -6 -1.5
46 Elk River Elks 3 1 2 0 8 14 -6 -2
47 Bloomington Jefferson Jaguars 3 1 2 0 13 19 -6 -2
48 Chisago Lakes Wildcats 3 1 2 0 6 12 -6 -2
49 Coon Rapids Cardinals 1 0 1 0 1 7 -6 -6
50 Spring Lake Park Panthers 4 0 2 2 7 14 -7 -1.8
51 Anoka Tornadoes 3 0 2 1 6 13 -7 -2.3
52 Brainerd Warriors 4 0 3 1 13 20 -7 -1.8
53 Waconia Wildcats 1 0 1 3 11 -8 -8
54 Mounds View Mustangs 4 0 4 0 8 16 -8 -2
55 Orono Spartans 2 0 2 0 1 10 -9 -4.5
56 New Prague Trojans 6 1 4 1 15 25 -10 -1.7
57 Proctor Rails 2 0 2 0 1 11 -10 -5
58 Hastings Raiders 2 0 2 0 2 12 -10 -5
59 Princeton Tigers 3 0 3 0 2 12 -10 -3.3
60 Faribault Falcons 1 0 1 0 0 12 -12 -12
61 Mound Westonka White Hawks 1 0 1 0 0 13 -13 -13
62 Mora Mustangs 3 0 3 0 2 21 -19 -6.3
63 Centennial Cougars 8 1 6 1 23 50 -27 -3.4
64 Duluth East 8 0 6 2 11 42 -31 -3.9


We can see here that Wayzata is still #1 and still by a very wide margin. But we also see teams that haven't played a real hard schedule raising too high and we see solid teams who have struggled with a difficult schedule falling too low. Look for example at the two teams in last place and next to last place - Centennial & Duluth.

So MARGIN OF VICTORY alone not only doesn't tell the whole story, but in many cases can distort the story.

MARGIN of VICTORY only makes sense when it's applied against STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE. We'll look at that next

[scorekeeper]

So now when we meassure that margin of victory against strength of schedule, we can assign a rating to each game and then average out a teams performances to arrive at a BASE RATING for each team. I assigned the number 15 as a baseline number for this excersice, so 15 would be a rating of an AVERAGE team in the state. Here's how it stands right now ...


Rank - Team - GP - Wins - Losses - Ties - GF - GA - RATING

1 Wayzata Trojans 10 8 1 1 48 19 21.5
2 Burnsville Blaze 7 3 0 4 30 24 20
3 Edina Hornets 5 2 2 1 14 10 20
4 Osseo Maple Grove 7 3 2 2 35 18 19.5
5 Eden Prairie Eagles 7 3 3 1 28 23 19
6 White Bear Lake Bears 5 3 2 0 18 24 19
7 Stillwater Stallions 7 4 3 0 23 21 18.5
8 Minnetonka Skippers 7 3 3 1 22 23 18.5
9 Andover Huskies 4 3 1 0 28 11 18
10 Prior Lake Savage Lakers 7 4 1 2 35 22 18
11 Hermantown Hawks 4 4 0 0 26 13 18
12 Lakeville South 3 3 0 0 20 7 18
13 Sibley Generals 5 2 3 0 14 15 18
14 Farmington Tigers 6 4 1 1 25 10 17.5
15 Hopkins Royals 4 3 0 1 16 7 17.5
16 Lakeville North 1 1 0 0 5 0 17.5
17 Minneapolis Storm 6 3 1 2 22 18 17.5
18 Armstrong Cooper Falcons 4 4 0 0 19 10 17
19 Rosemount Irish 8 4 3 1 34 29 17
20 Highland Central Capitals 4 2 0 2 10 8 17
21 Roseville Raiders 5 2 3 0 18 19 17
22 Elk River Elks 3 1 2 0 8 14 17
23 Centennial Cougars 8 1 6 1 23 50 17
24 Woodbury Predators 2 0 1 1 7 6 16.5
25 Duluth East 8 0 6 2 11 42 16.5
26 Bloomington Kennedy Eagles 3 1 2 0 15 6 16
27 St Cloud Huskies 5 3 1 1 19 12 16
28 Champlin Park Rebels 6 3 3 0 16 11 16
29 Chaska Hawks 5 2 2 1 21 19 16
30 Shakopee Sabres 1 0 1 0 4 5 16
31 Rogers Royals 6 5 1 0 25 11 15.5
32 Hibbing BlueJackets 2 1 1 0 6 8 15.5
33 Rochester (Red) 1 0 1 0 1 5 15.5
34 Mankato Mavericks 2 0 1 1 4 9 15.5
35 Bloomington Jefferson Jaguars 3 1 2 0 13 19 15.5
37 St Louis Park Orioles 2 0 2 0 3 5 15
38 New Prague Trojans 6 1 4 1 15 25 15
39 Apple Valley Eagles 2 1 0 1 12 4 14.5
40 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 4 3 1 0 11 5 14.5
41 Eastview Lightning 4 2 2 0 12 10 14.5
42 Chisago Lakes Wildcats 3 1 2 0 6 12 14.5
43 Tartan Titans 6 3 1 2 22 12 14
44 St Michael-Albertville Knights 6 4 2 0 23 19 14
45 Buffalo Bison 2 1 1 0 5 4 14
46 Brainerd Warriors 4 0 3 1 13 20 14
47 Blaine Bengals 1 1 0 0 5 4 13.5
48 Forest Lake Rangers 3 0 1 2 7 8 13.5
49 Spring Lake Park Panthers 4 0 2 2 7 14 13.5
50 Eagan Wildcats 1 0 1 0 0 5 13
51 Cottage Grove Wolfpack 4 2 2 0 11 17 13
52 Anoka Tornadoes 3 0 2 1 6 13 13
53 Mounds View Mustangs 4 0 4 0 8 16 12.5
54 Orono Spartans 2 0 2 0 1 10 12.5
55 Waconia Wildcats 1 0 1 3 11 12
56 Proctor Rails 2 0 2 0 1 11 11
57 Princeton Tigers 3 0 3 0 2 12 11
58 New Ulm Eagles 1 0 1 0 1 6 10.5
59 Red Wing Wingers 1 0 1 0 2 5 10
60 Monticello (MAML) Moose 1 0 1 0 4 9 9.5
61 Coon Rapids Cardinals 1 0 1 0 1 7 8.5
62 Hastings Raiders 2 0 2 0 2 12 8.5
63 Faribault Falcons 1 0 1 0 0 12 8.5
64 Mound Westonka White Hawks 1 0 1 0 0 13 8.5
65 Mora Mustangs 3 0 3 0 2 21 8.5


Now we are getting close to a finished product. The bug in the system now is that the Ratings become more accurate as teams play more games. therefore, it's true that teams who have played less games are less accurately rated than teams who have played more games. The more games they play, the more accurate the ratings.

If we pull out teams with less than 4 games played it looks like this ...

Code: Select all

[scorekeeper]

Rank - Team - GP - Wins - Losses - Ties - GF - GA - RATING

1 Wayzata Trojans 10 8 1 1 48 19 21.5
2 Burnsville Blaze 7 3 0 4 30 24 20
3 Edina Hornets 5 2 2 1 14 10 20
4 Osseo Maple Grove 7 3 2 2 35 18 19.5
5 Eden Prairie Eagles 7 3 3 1 28 23 19
6 White Bear Lake Bears 5 3 2 0 18 24 19
7 Stillwater Stallions 7 4 3 0 23 21 18.5
8 Minnetonka Skippers 7 3 3 1 22 23 18.5
9 Andover Huskies 4 3 1 0 28 11 18
10 Prior Lake Savage Lakers 7 4 1 2 35 22 18
11 Hermantown Hawks 4 4 0 0 26 13 18
12 Sibley Generals 5 2 3 0 14 15 18
13 Farmington Tigers 6 4 1 1 25 10 17.5
14 Hopkins Royals 4 3 0 1 16 7 17.5
15 Minneapolis Storm 6 3 1 2 22 18 17.5
16 Armstrong Cooper Falcons 4 4 0 0 19 10 17
17 Rosemount Irish 8 4 3 1 34 29 17
18 Highland Central Capitals 4 2 0 2 10 8 17
19 Roseville Raiders 5 2 3 0 18 19 17
20 Centennial Cougars 8 1 6 1 23 50 17
21 Duluth East 8 0 6 2 11 42 16.5
22 St Cloud Huskies 5 3 1 1 19 12 16
23 Champlin Park Rebels 6 3 3 0 16 11 16
24 Chaska Hawks 5 2 2 1 21 19 16
25 Rogers Royals 6 5 1 0 25 11 15.5
26 New Prague Trojans 6 1 4 1 15 25 15
27 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 4 3 1 0 11 5 14.5
28 Eastview Lightning 4 2 2 0 12 10 14.5
29 Tartan Titans 6 3 1 2 22 12 14
30 St Michael-Albertville Knights 6 4 2 0 23 19 14
31 Brainerd Warriors 4 0 3 1 13 20 14
32 Spring Lake Park Panthers 4 0 2 2 7 14 13.5
33 Cottage Grove Wolfpack 4 2 2 0 11 17 13
34 Mounds View Mustangs 4 0 4 0 8 16 12.5


In all scenarios Wayzata is comfortably #1. You can make an argument for Burnsville being #2 right now and it's difficult to discount the Hornets. After that, it really bunches up.

[scorekeeper]

The practical purpose for a tool like RATINGS is for scheduling purposes. For example, the NCAA uses Ratings to help seed their Basketball Tournament and some sports administrators will use Ratings to ensure they are getting the right competition for their teams.

However, the more fun use of Ratings for the average joe is to forecast the margin of victory in a sporting event. These ratings for example, just for fun, we can use to look at the Tommy Wilams Tourney in Duluth this weekend. (prediction in brackets)

9th Annual Tommy Williams Invitational Bantam A Tournament


Friday, November 11th – First Round

Duluth East vs. White Bear Lake (WBL by 2)
Cloquet vs. Centennial (Cent by 2)
Sibley vs. OMG (OMG by 1)
Eden Prairie vs. Wayzata (Wayzata by 2)

Saturday, November 12th – Second Round

Duluth East vs. OMG (OMG by 3)
Cloquet vs. Eden Prairie (EP by 4)
Centennial vs. Wayzata (Wayz by 4)
Sibley vs. White Bear Lake (WBL by 1)

Saturday, November 12th – Third Round

Duluth East vs. Sibley (Sib by 1)
Cloquet vs. Wayzata (Wayz by 6)
OMG vs. White Bear Lake (OMG by 1)
Centennial vs. Eden Prairie (EP by 2)

Sunday, November 13th – Semifinals

Game #13
Winner Red (OMG) vs. Runner-up Grey (EP) - (OMG by 1)

Game #14
Winner Grey (Wayz) vs. Runner-up Red (WBL) - (Wayz by 2)

Game #15
Third Red (Sib) vs. Fourth Grey (Cloq) - (Sib by 3)

Game #16
Third Grey (Cent) vs. Fourth Red (Dul) - (Dul by 1 **Home Cookin**)

Sunday, November 13th – Finals

Game #17
Winner #13 (OMG) vs. Winner #14 (Wayz) - (Wayz by 2)

Game #18
Loser #13 (EP) vs. Loser #14 (WBL) - (EP by 1)

Game #19
Winner #15 (Sib) vs. Winner #16 (Dul) - (Sib by 1)

Game #20
Loser #15 (Cloq) vs. Loser #16 (Cent) - (Cent by 2)


Anyways, that's my 6-post rant on why Wayzata should be considered the pre-season favorite. Of course this is just a mathematical excersize and simply reflects the play of the Wayzata team on the ice. We all know the games are played on the ice and not on a spreadsheet. Thanks for indulging me though.

Good luck to all the boys and all the teams in Duluth this weekend and throughout your seasons!

[royalhockey999]

[quote="scorekeeper"]The practical purpose for a tool like RATINGS is for scheduling purposes. For example, the NCAA uses Ratings to help seed their Basketball Tournament and some sports administrators will use Ratings to ensure they are getting the right competition for their teams.

However, the more fun use of Ratings for the average joe is to forecast the margin of victory in a sporting event. These ratings for example, just for fun, we can use to look at the Tommy Wilams Tourney in Duluth this weekend. (prediction in brackets)

9th Annual Tommy Williams Invitational Bantam A Tournament


[b]Friday, November 11th – First Round[/b]

Duluth East vs. White Bear Lake (WBL by 2)
Cloquet vs. Centennial (Cent by 2)
Sibley vs. OMG (OMG by 1)
Eden Prairie vs. Wayzata (Wayzata by 2)

[b]Saturday, November 12th – Second Round[/b]

Duluth East vs. OMG (OMG by 3)
Cloquet vs. Eden Prairie (EP by 4)
Centennial vs. Wayzata (Wayz by 4)
Sibley vs. White Bear Lake (WBL by 1)

[b]Saturday, November 12th – Third Round[/b]

Duluth East vs. Sibley (Sib by 1)
Cloquet vs. Wayzata (Wayz by 6)
OMG vs. White Bear Lake (OMG by 1)
Centennial vs. Eden Prairie (EP by 2)

[b]Sunday, November 13th – Semifinals[/b]

Game #13
Winner Red (OMG) vs. Runner-up Grey (EP) - (OMG by 1)

Game #14
Winner Grey (Wayz) vs. Runner-up Red (WBL) - (Wayz by 2)

Game #15
Third Red (Sib) vs. Fourth Grey (Cloq) - (Sib by 3)

Game #16
Third Grey (Cent) vs. Fourth Red (Dul) - (Dul by 1 **Home Cookin**)

[b]Sunday, November 13th – Finals[/b]

Game #17
Winner #13 (OMG) vs. Winner #14 (Wayz) - (Wayz by 2)

Game #18
Loser #13 (EP) vs. Loser #14 (WBL) - (EP by 1)

Game #19
Winner #15 (Sib) vs. Winner #16 (Dul) - (Sib by 1)

Game #20
Loser #15 (Cloq) vs. Loser #16 (Cent) - (Cent by 2)


Anyways, that's my 6-post rant on why Wayzata should be considered the pre-season favorite. Of course this is just a mathematical excersize and simply reflects the play of the Wayzata team on the ice. We all know the games are played on the ice and not on a spreadsheet. Thanks for indulging me though.

Good luck to all the boys and all the teams in Duluth this weekend and throughout your seasons![/quote]



LOVE THE 6 POST RANT!!! WELL DONE

[hockeyoldtimer]

Scorekeeper,

You are truly amazing in your statistical analysis. I will be willing to bet your predictions will be very close for the Duluth tournament this weekend.
Should be some great hockey in Duluth, as always. Good luck to all the teams!

[scorekeeper]

Just a quick follow up to the Ratings I posted yesterday. MyHockeyRankings have just published the first Minnesota Rankings
http://myhockeyrankings.com/rank.php?y=2011&a=b&v=166

Only teams who have played 5 games or more are included. They are pretty consistent with the ones I put out, although they cap scoring at 7 and they use a baseline of 10. Teams who had blowout wins are rated a little lower in their than the one I put out.

Here's the MyHockeyRanking Ratings

Rank / Team / W-L-T / RATING

1 Wayzata Trojans 8-1-1 15.31
2 Prior Lake Lakers 4-1-2 14.22
3 Burnsville Blaze 3-0-4 13.67
4 E.Prairie Eagles 3-3-1 13.18
5 Sibley Generals 2-3-0 13.15
6 Farmington Tigers 4-1-1 13.13
7 W.Bear Lake Bears 3-2-0 12.91
8 Edina Hornets 2-2-1 12.76
9 Osseo Maple Grove 3-2-2 12.55
10 Rosemount Irish 4-3-1 12.28
11 M'polis Storm 3-1-2 12.22
12 Stillwater Stallions 5-3-0 11.77
13 Minnetonka Skippers 3-3-1 11.70
14 Roseville Raiders 2-3-0 11.63
15 Chaska Hawks 2-2-1 11.51
16 Centennial Cougars 1-6-1 11.39
17 Duluth East 0-6-2 10.91
18 Rogers Royals 5-1-0 10.81
19 Champlin Park Rebels 3-3-0 10.75
20 St Cloud Huskies 3-1-1 10.66
21 New Prague Trojans 1-4-1 10.01
22 Mahtomedi Zephyrs 4-1-0 9.75
23 Tartan Titans 3-1-2 9.53
24 St Michael Knights 4-2-0 8.79
25 Anoka Tornadoes 3-3-1 8.22
26 Brainerd Warriors 0-5-1 7.19
27 Forest Lake Rangers 0-3-2 6.96


When applying these to the Tommy Williams Tournament, Sibley, Cloquet and WBL do a little bit better than the ones I posted yesterday. OMG and EP do a little worse.

here's the forecast based on MyHockeyRankings.com

9th Annual Tommy Williams Invitational Bantam A Tournament

Friday, November 11th – First Round

Duluth East vs. White Bear Lake (WBL by 2)
Cloquet vs. Centennial (Cent by 1)
Sibley vs. OMG (Sib by 1)
Eden Prairie vs. Wayzata (Wayzata by 2)

Saturday, November 12th – Second Round

Duluth East vs. OMG (OMG by 1)
Cloquet vs. Eden Prairie (EP by 3)
Centennial vs. Wayzata (Wayz by 4)
Sibley vs. White Bear Lake (Sib by 1)

Saturday, November 12th – Third Round

Duluth East vs. Sibley (Sib by 2)
Cloquet vs. Wayzata (Wayz by 5)
OMG vs. White Bear Lake (WBL by 1)
Centennial vs. Eden Prairie (EP by 2)

Sunday, November 13th – Semifinals

Game #13
Winner Red (Sib) vs. Runner-up Grey (EP) - (EP in OT)

Game #14
Winner Grey (Wayz) vs. Runner-up Red (WBL) - (Wayz by 2)

Game #15
Third Red (OMG) vs. Fourth Grey (Cloq) - (OMG by 3)

Game #16
Third Grey (Cent) vs. Fourth Red (Dul) - (Dul in OT)

Sunday, November 13th – Finals

Game #17
Winner #13 (Sib) vs. Winner #14 (Wayz) - (Wayz by 2)

Game #18
Loser #13 (EP) vs. Loser #14 (WBL) - (WBL in OT)

Game #19
Winner #15 (OMG) vs. Winner #16 (Dul) - (OMG by 1)

Game #20
Loser #15 (Cloq) vs. Loser #16 (Cent) - (Cent by 1)

[IMHO]

Hey scorekeeper,,, you're 1 for 4 so far. Hope you don't do this for a living. (hint-hint)

[scorekeeper]

Hey scorekeeper,,, you're 1 for 4 so far. Hope you don't do this for a living. (hint-hint)

No, as stated, "just for fun" ... but I think it's a little closer than 1 for 4.

Friday, November 11th – First Round

Duluth East vs. White Bear Lake (WBL by 2) - (DE by 2 - wrong)
Cloquet vs. Centennial (Cent by 2) - (Cloq by 4 - wrong)
Sibley vs. OMG (OMG by 1) - (OMG by 3 - correct)
Eden Prairie vs. Wayzata (Wayzata by 2) (EP in OT - wrong)

Saturday, November 12th – Second Round

Duluth East vs. OMG (OMG by 3) - (OMG by 1 - correct)

Cloquet vs. Eden Prairie (EP by 4) - (EP by 6 - correct)

So far 3-3 with EP winning in OT. Cloquet is a little stronger than expected, but there were no games played yet to base them on. Not strong enough though, to finish top 2 in their pool and make the playoff round.

In fact my ratings are coming in more accurate so far (3-3) than the MyHockeyRankings Ratings (2-4), but it's early yet.

[buttend]

Hey scorekeeper,,, you're 1 for 4 so far. Hope you don't do this for a living. (hint-hint)

No, as stated, "just for fun" ... but I think it's a little closer than 1 for 4.

Friday, November 11th – First Round

Duluth East vs. White Bear Lake (WBL by 2) - (DE by 2 - wrong)
Cloquet vs. Centennial (Cent by 2) - (Cloq by 4 - wrong)
Sibley vs. OMG (OMG by 1) - (OMG by 3 - correct)
Eden Prairie vs. Wayzata (Wayzata by 2) (EP in OT - wrong)

Saturday, November 12th – Second Round

Duluth East vs. OMG (OMG by 3) - (OMG by 1 - correct)

Cloquet vs. Eden Prairie (EP by 4) - (EP by 6 - correct)

So far 3-3 with EP winning in OT. Cloquet is a little stronger than expected, but there were no games played yet to base them on. Not strong enough though, to finish top 2 in their pool and make the playoff round.

In fact my ratings are coming in more accurate so far (3-3) than the MyHockeyRankings Ratings (2-4), but it's early yet.

The WBL/DE game was 3-1 WBL.... so "WBL by 2", you hit that right on!

your 4 for 6