After multiple revisions due to starting early in the week and upsets happening, this is what I've come to. The only part of my rankings I'm sure most people will agree with is the top 2. From there, things really go up for speculation.
6-12 is a group of good, but not great, teams. After them the rest are my best guess at an order based on head to head and common opponent games and I have dropped two teams from my rankings. As we get closer to sections/state, a couple more teams may end up dropping off in the coming weeks.
1. [1] St Thomas Academy (14-5)
The Cadets have basically secured up the top seed in 4A, shutting out Totino Grace. With the record of other top teams, there is a chance they will not get the top seed at state if they do not beat Hill Murray the second time around. In their last 4 games they have allowed 1 goal to each of Sibley and Richfield while shutting out South St Paul and Totino Grace.
This week: Tues vs Rochester Lourdes, Thurs @ Mahtomedi, Sat @ Tartan
2. [2] Blake (17-2-2)
The one common opponent with Hermantown is TRF, who Blake beat 5-1 and Hermantown tied. The Bears’ overall resume is very good and can probably play close with any team in the state. With the last game of the season at Breck the only remaining difficult game of the season, Blake has locked up the top seed in 2A and should be a good tournament.
This week: Thurs @ St Paul Saints, Sat vs Providence Academy
3. [3] Totino-Grace (15-4)
With the loss to Cloquet, Totino stays above Hermantown. In their common opponent games (TRF and DM) the Totino is 2-0 while Hermantown is 1-0-1 in those games. That being said, whenever Totino has played a really good team, they have lost by at least 5 goals and been shut out twice; beat by a margin of 20-2 in their 3 games against Edina, St Thomas and Benilde. Definitely a top team in Class A, but after losing at St Thomas, it looks like their section seed is still very up in the air and they will probably not make it to the X this year.
This week: Tues vs St Francis, Thurs @ Tartan, Sat @ Chisago Lakes Area
4. [8] South St. Paul (14-7)
I am much more impressed by beating John Marshall, shutting out Tartan and playing St Thomas than a couple losses and beating Monticello by 1. Definitely a sleeper for section 4A, but the Packers have not been consistent this season. They lost to the Pioneers by 2 at Aldrich; will it be closer when they play at Wakota?
This week: Thurs vs Hill-Murray, Sat vs Richfield
5. [5] Hermantown (18-3-1)
I believe Hermantown will end up with the #3 seed if they make it to state. Not only do they not have the same overall resume as Blake, St Thomas, or Totino, imo, but they beat Cathedral by the same score as Breck, who lost to Blake. Additionally, they will most likely win most of their section games by a good margin, while Blake, St Thomas or Totino will both have to play probably two teams better than any other 5A team. Inititally I was planning on having them at #2 after their 1-goal loss to Eden Prairie, but after losing to Bemidji and beating Monti by 1, things are definitely in question. They beat the Trojans by 1 last time they played. With a recent win over Marshall, the Trojans would like to make Tuesday’s game a good one.
This week: Tues vs Duluth Central, Sat @ Red Wing
6. [6] Duluth Marshall (13-8-1)
After losing to Central, the section is really up for grabs, but I’d say that Marshall should get the top seed if they beat Virginia this week. They have beaten both Warroad and Thief River Falls recently and have only lost to top 4 Class A schools and Central, it’ll be interesting to see how they do in sections.
This week: Tues vs Virgina, Sat vs Superior
7. [7] Thief River Falls (13-7-1)
The LOW loss is definitely not great for the rankings, and the reason they dropped this week, but not scoring on the best goalie in the state isn’t something you can really hold against a team. Recently beating Warroad and Central probably secures a top 2 seed in 8A for the Prowlers. As their season is left with winnable games, some momentum would be great to take into sections as all games are in TRF, home or away.
This week: Tues vs Roseau, Thurs @ Red Lake Falls
8. [9] Chisago Lakes Area (16-4)
The difference between the Wildcats and the rest of the schools is that they have won by at least 2 goals in all their wins. They’ll have another shot at Totino this week. How you handle teams like Chisago in rankings based solely on game scores is difficult.
This week: Tues @ Robbinsdale Cooper, Sat vs Totino-Grace
9. [10] Warroad (15-7)
Beating Central is what is keeping the Warriors atop the Trojans. Definitely a team we could see at the X after a great section tournament in TRF.
This week: Tues @ Grand Forks Central, Fri @ Bemidji
10. [11] Duluth Central (11-11)
A great 7A win this week most likely makes the Trojans probably a top 3 seed in their section.
This week: Tues @ Hermantown, Fri @ Princeton
11. [16] Rochester Lourdes (19-2)
As I’ve said all season, I don’t like Lourdes as a top team based on their body of work this season. That being said, they beat Breck, so they have to move up.
This week: Tues @ St Thomas, Thurs vs Owatonna
12. [4] Breck (12-8 )
The Mustangs are clearly a good team. There is no reason to count them out of anything for this year just yet. While voting will probably be submitted before they play Blake the 2nd time, they will probably make the final and will definitely be a contender for beating Blake a 3rd straight year in the section finals.
This week: Tues vs Minnehaha Academy, Thurs @ St Paul Como Park, Sat @ Faribault
13. [13] Mahtomedi (10-11-1)
Clearly a team who can play with just about anyone in state, but I am keeping them below Breck as the Mustangs beat them 8-0 earlier this season. We’ll see if they can keep St Thomas from shutting them out this week.
This week: Thurs vs St Thomas Academy
14. [15] Rogers (14-6-1)
Two shut outs and a .33 GAA this week, Rogers is definitely doing well as of late. Have they changed something to help them compete with Hermantown?
This week: Thurs vs Little Falls, Sat vs Monticello
15. [24] Lake of the Woods (14-5-2)
Beating TRF and following that up with two shut outs. With all of the gossip about their goalie, the Bears seem to control their own destiny for seeding in section 8A. I doubt if they were to win out anyone else would be the top seed. They have one more section opponent this week.
This week: Thurs @ International Falls, Fri vs Crookston
16. [20] Little Falls (16-3-2)
A couple bad losses recently, but the Flyers have responded by winning. Should be a great game this coming Thursday.
This week: Tues @ St Cloud Apollo, Thurs @ Rogers
17. [22] St. Cloud Cathedral (11-8-1)
Following their OT loss to Little Falls, the Crusaders have won their last two games. They play two conference games this week.
This week: Tues @ Hutchinson, Fri @ Waconia
18. [23] Proctor (14-6-1)
While I’d like to have the Rails higher, they got shut out by a Rogers team that Cathedral scored on. They are doing well as of late and are taking the program to heights they haven’t been in a while. Their roster seems to have many seniors on it, with 7 of their 10 leading scorers being seniors, it seems their success may not continue
This week: Thurs vs North Branch
19. [12] Hibbing/Chisholm (13-7-1)
A loss to Proctor doesn’t help Hibbing’s cause. I got a message early in the season from someone saying that the early loss was not a fluke and that Hibbing was out of their league playing Little Falls. It seems this is probably the case.
This week: Tues vs Grand Rapids, Fri vs Eveleth-Gilbert
20. [14] Virginia/MI-B (16-7)
Losing to International Falls recently doesn’t help their case. Their remaining two games are against section opponents and wins could shuffle things up even more in 7A.
This week: Tues vs Duluth Marshall
21. [17] Delano (3-1)
In their last 11 games, the Tigers have only lost to Cathedral by 1 twice and to Lourdes by 4. Delano is definitely a sleeper, but not a team to count out of section 2A.
This week: Tues vs Mound-Westonka, Fri vs Litchfield
22. [18] Orono (13-7-1)
Another sleeper in section 2A, sections will give them a chance to play teams they have not played during the regular season.
This week: Tues vs Litchfield, Sat vs Holy Family Catholic
23. [19] Sartell-St. Stephen (13-7-1)
Beating Little Falls then losing to Virginia doesn’t do much for state ranking, but the Flyers also lost to Virginia, so it shouldn’t affect their section seeding.
This week: Tues @ Alexandria, Thurs vs River Lakes
Section Seedings
1A
Rochecter Lourdes (19-2)
Mankato West (14-5-2)
Albert Lea (14-6)
Red Wing (7-14)
No changes from the last two weeks: “Lourdes beat West by 1 and shut out Albert Lea, West beat Albert Lea by 1, and Red Wing lost to Lourdes in OT and Albert Lea by 1. There should be some really great hockey come sections.”
2A
Blake (18-2-1)
Breck (12-8 )
Delano (15-4-1)
Providence Academy (14-5-1)
Orono (13-7-1)
I slid Breck back up to #2 with Delano losing to a team Breck beat. I have liked Providence Academy as they are an up and coming private school, but I really wonder how the section will seed them. The SPA tie and Coon Rapids loss could put them lower than Orono, but either would result in a neutral site game head to head.
3A
New Ulm (13-4-2)
Hutchinson (8-12)
Litchfield (13-7-1)
Marshall (15-5-2)
Litchfield losing to Hutch again puts New Ulm back in the driver’s seat in 3A. I expect to the New Ulm victorious when all is said and done.
4A
St Thomas (14-5)
South St Paul (14-7)
Mahtomedi (10-11-1)
Totino-Grace (15-4)
Chisago Lakes Area (16-4)
I’d say that scoring the most goals against the top seed should get the Packers the #2 seed. St Thomas has had 2 GA from SSP, 1 GA from Maht and 0 GA from TG. St Thomas and Maht play this week and Totino and Chisago play this week.
5A
Hermantown (18-3-1)
Rogers (13-6-1)
St Cloud Cathedral (11-8-1)
Proctor (12-7-2)
The events of this week have solidified the top 4 in this section in my opinion, but Hermantown should roll through, especially if Rogers is able to beat Cathedral again.
6A
Sartell-St Stephen (11-6-1)
Wilmar (10-7-3)
Little Falls (13-4-2)
Fergus Falls (9-8-3)
Detroit Lakes (12-8-1)
I will admit that my bias is toward most recent games, and section games, as apposed to whole season and common opponent games.
7A
Duluth Central (11-11)
Duluth Marshall (13-8-1)
Hibbing (13-7-1)
International Falls (8-9-1)
Virginia (16-7)
While Virginia did beat Central early in the season, their losses lately have dropped them. They play two more section opponents in the next two weeks to round out the season. The rankings of this section will be very confusing and I could see any of my top 3 getting the top seed.
8A
Lake of the Woods (14-5-2)
Thief River Falls (14-7-1)
Warroad (15-7)
Crookston (9-11-1)
East Grand Forks (8-12-1)
This section has turned into a 3 horse race. With Alex Lyon not leaving Lake of the Woods early, the Bears could still get the top seed in the section. With their early loss to Warroad being only by a goal, TRF beating Warroad recently and LOW beating TRF, they should be in the driver’s seat right now. I doubt they’d get seated at state even if they won their next seven games and were on a 14 game winning streak going into state, but a team with the best goalie in the state should never be counted out.
State Seeding if Section Top Seeds Won Their Section Today
#1 St Thomas
#2 Blake
#3 Hermantown
#4 Duluth Marshall
[5] Lake of the Woods
[6] Rochester Lourdes
[7] Sartell-St Stephen
[8] New Ulm
This must be about the 3rd week in a row that you have knocked LF down for a game they didn't lose. Little Falls is 16-3-2 and beat Detroit Lakes last night 5-3. 
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