AA Rankings for 1/30/11

[karl(east)]

The teams decided not to mess with my head too much this past week--maybe things are finally starting to take shape. Or maybe I’ve just become immune to surprise after all the crazy results this year.

1. Hill-Murray (14-3-1)
-Win over STA was tight, which reminds us that holding the top spot this year doesn’t necessarily mean a team is that much better than anyone else. But it hasn’t changed my general confidence in this team and the direction it’s headed. This week they continue their march through the CSC and shouldn’t have any issues.
This week: Thurs vs. Richfield, Sat at Simley

2. Eden Prairie (13-4-1)
-Rewarded my confidence in them last week with yet another quality win, this time settling some of the score from last year’s section title game against Tonka. Another 3-game week ahead of them, including one of the best single-A teams in the state and the second of three match-ups with Edina. That’s an interesting game for both teams--Edina needs a big Lake win to climb back into the picture, while EP needs to prove they can beat the Hornets--for all its hype, this senior class is 0-3 against them. With a convincing win, I might launch EP back up into the top spot.
This week: Tues vs. Hermantown, Thurs vs. #10 Edina, Sat vs. Buffalo

3. Minnetonka (13-4-1)
-A statement win over Wayzata launches Tonka into the top 3. The loss to EP keeps them from going higher, but their steadiness and depth makes them the sort of team no one wants to play down the stretch. We’ll see just how far they can take this impressive rebuilding project--repeating Edina’s feat of a year ago is now a more distinct possibility than ever before. After three straight hard Lake games, they now get a breather.
This week: Thurs vs. Rochester Century, Sat at Hopkins

4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (15-2)
-Beat up on Osseo, then won a hectic game over Holy Angels. They remain a hard team to rank; the record is obviously great, and they have some high-quality wins. But in watching them, I can’t erase the doubts in my mind. They’ll need to shore up the defense if they’re to have a chance in 6AA. Three games in the week ahead, the only potentially difficult one being the trip up to Moorhead.
This week: Tues vs. Chisago Lakes, Thurs at #12 Moorhead, Sat vs. Rochester Century

5. Maple Grove (15-3-1)
-This may seem high, but MG is one of the hottest teams in the state right now, and have wins over Wayzata and Duluth East to their name. They are deep and balanced and play good team defense, which is the right formula to have. The NWSC doesn’t give them a great chance to showcase what they can do against other great teams, but they’re winning the games they need to, and made up for that unfortunate tie with Blaine. Nothing but NWSC games left, so they should be favored in all of them; the most interesting looks to be their Saturday trip to Circle Pines.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat at Centennial

6. Wayzata (13-4-2)
-Are now 1-2-2 in their last five, though all the games have come against currently ranked teams. I still have some doubts about them in big games (except against Edina, whom they seem to own). Their one tough game this week is, conveniently enough, against Edina--time to see which direction this team is going.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat vs. #10 Edina

7. Burnsville (13-3-3)
-Once again going on a great second half run; they are now 6-0-1 in their last seven, the tie coming this past week against a great Wayzata team. Still, their inability to close out wins after wracking up early leads prompts some doubt. Nothing but SSC games left, and on paper they should win out, but they should get a couple of good games in there that will help prepare them for the stiffer tests they’re bound to face in 2AA.
This week: Thurs vs. Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Prior Lake

8. Duluth East (14-4)
-Went down to Maple Grove on Saturday; they appear to be stagnating some down the stretch as the teams around them show signs of improvement. Need to put together more complete games--they always seem to fall behind before staging a comeback when playing other good teams. They’ll win a few games that way, but it’s not a formula for consistency against the state’s elite. A potentially dangerous game against Blaine is on the horizon this week.
This week: Tues vs. Superior (WI), Sat at Blaine

9. Grand Rapids (15-3-1)
-The Thunderhawks got back on track with an important and convincing win over Bemidji on Tuesday. They appear to have broken up their top line and gone for a more balanced approach, which I really like--lest I sound like a broken record, well-used depth wins championships. The win and the strategy shift have restored a lot of my confidence in GR; they get one last regular season shot to prove what they can do against a good team this week, after a pair of IRC games.
This week: Tues at Virginia, Thurs vs. Eveleth, Sat at #12 Moorhead

10 Edina (11-5-2)
-Are they better than this? Probably. Are they playing like it right now? No. Sure, there’s a decent chance it’s merely the annual late January Edina swoon, which they’ve also gone through the past two years. But to me, as I watch them play, they look more like the ‘09 Hornets than the ‘10 version. It’s not a perfect comparison, but I think the cracks in the walls are a lot more obvious this year. It was at this point last year that they gave Tonka its first lost, which turned the season around. It’s their turn to get the Week of Death in the Lake--time for the Hornets to prove themselves.
This week: Thurs at #2 Eden Prairie, Sat at #6 Wayzata

11. Eagan (13-5-1)
-A shock-and-awe performance against Lakeville South reminds us of what this team can do when it’s on; they avenged their earlier ugly loss to North. Have their second contest against Apple Valley this week, which is huge for 3AA--a win by Eagan locks up the top seed. Beyond that, it should be smooth sailing until their rematch with Jefferson in the regular season finale.

12. Moorhead (14-4-1)
-The streaking Spuds have now won 7 in a row, and all three wins this past week were important, as they pounded Roseau, scraped by Brainerd in a game that was closer than some expected, then held off a pretty good Centennial team. It gets tougher this week, though--after several weeks of steady improvement, it’s time to see how well they can compete with some of the state’s finest.
This week: Thurs vs. #4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat vs. #9 Grand Rapids

13. Holy Angels (12-6)
-Continued to plow through the Missota, though again with more trouble than expected against Chanhassen, and then gave Benilde a pretty good game before coming up on the short end. Nothing too intimidating on the horizon, until they face Shattuck next week.
This week: Tues at Farmington, Sat at Shakopee

14. Bemidji (17-2-1)
-Took a rough loss in Grand Rapids, which curbs my enthusiasm about them. But the record still speaks for itself, and if they can beat Roseau for a second time on Thursday, they’ll lock up a home game in the section semifinals.
This week: Fri at Roseau, Sat vs. Fargo North (ND)

15. White Bear Lake (13-4-1)
-Beating East Ridge in OT isn’t the most impressive way to launch oneself back into the rankings, but with a relatively thin bubble, the Bears get the nod. They’re not turning any heads with their play, but they have been the epitome of consistency this year--that’s a change from the Bears teams of the past few years, and also very rare for any team this season. Marching through the SEC in the way they have is probably harder than it looks, since it seems anyone can beat anyone else on any given night. Have also started to get good production from the lower lines--are they developing the depth they need to compete with Hill? Time will tell. They’ve got an interesting week ahead, as they face the team that gave them their one blemish in the SEC, and then the clear #2 team in the conference.
This week: Thurs vs. Mounds View, Sat vs. Stillwater

Bubble
As I mentioned in the WBL comment, our bubble is currently very thin (or very deep with mediocrity). But I’ll attempt to list all the teams in order:

Apple Valley (13-6)
-Took a bad loss to Bloomington Jefferson, but they’ve shown they can be good; crucial game against Eagan this week.

Stillwater (11-4-2)
-Had a nice streak going before stumbling into a tie with Forest Lake. The best of the rest in the muddled SEC.

Centennial (8-9-1)
-The record is bad, but they’re consistently competitive with other good teams, and have as good a shot of anyone of knocking off Maple Grove.

Blaine (12-4-3)
-Bad loss to Centennial notwithstanding, they are also in the 5AA picture and have looked decent against other good teams. Big week ahead with Osseo and Duluth East coming up.

Bloomington Jefferson (10-6-2)
-They give new meaning to the word “enigmatic,” but they are dangerous, if nothing else. Burnsville and Lakeville South this week.

Cloquet (13-6)
-Loss to Duluth Marshall does not help them, but on the whole they’ve looked reasonably good lately.

Roseville (9-5-5)
-Has anyone ever seen a team so good at tying?

Elk River (8-11)
-More down than up, though there are three wins over teams that are ahead of them in there.

Lakeville South (8-7-2)
-Not really sure how to interpret that murder at the hands of Eagan; beyond that, they’ve shown themselves to be a mild upset threat. Game against Jefferson this week may be worth watching.

Osseo (12-6)
-Have some nice wins in the conference, but have gotten smoked in their big games outside of it.

Brainerd (13-6)
-Jump back into the picture with a win over St. Cloud Tech and a narrower-than-expected loss to Moorhead. Get a crack at Roseau and perhaps the #3 seed in 8AA this Saturday.

Woodbury (11-9)
-Signs of improvement since the start of the season; they’re playing good SEC teams well.

Cretin-Derham Hall (9-8-3)
-Crazily inconsistent, but hey, they did beat Edina.

St. Cloud Tech (11-7-1)
-Beating Roseau is good. Losing to Brainerd is not.

Roseau (8-9)
-Not looking too good lately, but they are Roseau. A lot of games left, so they have a chance to get back on track.

Okay, 30 teams is probably enough. Time for another tour through the sections, which are getting clearer as we get down towards the end.

1AA
(24) Lakeville South
Lakeville North

-The same two teams we’ve had all year; both have proven to be a ways ahead of the rest and at least capable of an upset, though they’re not up there with the top teams yet. Their rematch is on February 12th.

2AA
10 Edina
13 Holy Angels
7 Burnsville
(20) Bloomington Jefferson

-This section is an interesting one, and shows how messed-up the state is this year--the likely seeding (listed above) has little relation to the teams’ achievements. It has three strong teams, though all of them have issues, and that leaves us with a very open section. Jefferson is also now in the picture, as an upset threat.

3AA
11 Eagan
(16) Apple Valley
(27) Woodbury
(28) Cretin-Derham Hall

-The section below the top two is starting to take shape; Woodbury probably has the 3-seed locked up after their second win over Cretin. That creates an interesting match-up for the 1-seed against #4 CDH, who has shown they can beat Edina. And though the top two are a ways ahead talent-wise, both have shown they’re not immune to the upset.

4AA
1 Hill-Murray
15 White Bear Lake
(17) Stillwater
(22) Roseville

-Same old. The WBL-Stillwater rematch this week could affect the seeding, though the Ponies will probably need some help since WBL’s overall standing is a bit better at this point in time. Not much else to say beyond that.

5AA
5 Maple Grove
(18) Centennial
(29) Blaine
(25) Osseo

-MG’s big week locked them into the top spot; only by losing to both Centennial and Osseo down the stretch do they even have a chance of losing it. After that it gets a little more interesting--the second meetings between all of these teams will be big. Blaine plays Osseo this week; Centennial plays MG this week and Osseo the next.

6AA
2 Eden Prairie
4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
3 Minnetonka
6 Wayzata

-The usual madness. The seeding makes very logical sense right now, but we have another round of Lake action before the end of the season to screw it all up. I think whichever team wins this section deserves the top seed at State.

7AA
8 Duluth East
9 Grand Rapids
(21) Cloquet
(23) Elk River

-East’s recent struggles should hearten the rest of the section a bit. Still trying to see who gets the 3rd seed, and who gets the 4th; both teams play East 2 weeks from now, and it may well come down to whoever looks better in those games.

8AA
12 Moorhead
14 Bemidji
(26) Brainerd
(29) St. Cloud Tech
(30) Roseau

-The Spuds go to Bemidji on Feb. 8th to decide the top seed. Right now Roseau has been relegated to 5-seed status, but they do play Bemidji, Brainerd, and Tech in the next two weeks. After that we should have a definitive, final seeding.

3 weeks til sections. Enjoy.

[PuckU126]

Again you did a great job, Karl. The only ones I may think about switching are the #9 (Grand Rapids) and #10 (Edina). Hard teams to rank as of right now; however, the entire Class AA is difficult to gauge at this moment.

Thanks again, Karl(EAST).

[HShockeywatcher]

you finally beat me to getting your rankings out

Good analysis, as always. I would change two things;
-I'd switch #1 and #2. All Hill has really done is beat Edina in OT and Tonka by 2 and benefit from some easier games on their schedule while others lose. They then have losses to your #2, #4 and #7. They should win out (although I hope they don't) and wouldn't prove much by doing it. I'm never a huge fan of having teams right next to each other with the higher one having a head to head loss.

-Again Holy Angels would be higher for me. All cited reasons from last week plus a 2 goal loss to #4. Doubt much will change with 6 conference games and Shattuck left. But we can agree to disagree on that.

[PuckU126]

you finally beat me to getting your rankings out

[starmvp]

Once again great job. I have my own disagreements, but for the most part good job.

[TheHockeyDJ]

Again you did a great job, Karl. The only ones I may think about switching are the #9 (Grand Rapids) and #10 (Edina). Hard teams to rank as of right now; however, the entire Class AA is difficult to gauge at this moment.

Thanks again, Karl(EAST).

Rapids did beat Edina earlier in the year, not to mention a better record.

[pipersniper12]

Again you did a great job, Karl. The only ones I may think about switching are the #9 (Grand Rapids) and #10 (Edina). Hard teams to rank as of right now; however, the entire Class AA is difficult to gauge at this moment.

Thanks again, Karl(EAST).

Rapids did beat Edina earlier in the year, not to mention a better record.

Pretty sure Edina has a much more difficult schedule then GR.
Edina 6-5-1 against current top 15 teams, while GR is 2-2. GRs record most likely would have 2-4 more losses on their schedule if they were to play more quality opponents like Edina.

[pipersniper12]

Karl, your #8 should be a bubble team.

[wblhockeyfan8]

I agree with all you said regarding White Bear and the SEC. Each schools hatred for the other SEC opponents runs pretty deep as each school is at least semi-competitive in every sport. We just really don't like each other, and if you don't bring your A game you may get stung!

[karl(east)]

you finally beat me to getting your rankings out

That's two weeks in a row now. Slacker.

I know that, using logical who-beats-who arguments, Hill should not be #1. The ranking is based almost entirely on observation and reputation. And to give you some more fodder, they didn't beat Edina; they tied them and won a shootout. But as I said later in the rankings, I think whoever wins 6AA should be #1 at state. One of them just has to emerge above the fray. EP is on its way to doing that.

After watching AHA for the first time last night I think I have them in more or less the right spot.

DE, GR, and Edina are in an A-beats-B-beats-C triangle, all one goal games. On the whole I think East's season has been the strongest of the three, though I obviously have some questions about them. GR is just hard to judge based on their schedule--the Moorhead game will help us there. And as I said, Edina is in the doghouse right now--they have to earn their way back up. And a correction on the Edina record vs. the top 15: they are 6-4-1. Cretin is nowhere near the top 15 at the moment. That loss hurts.

Thanks for the kind words as always, and of course feel free to challenge things.

[blueblood]

HSHW:

Where should AHA be slotted? They have two nice wins all year: Burnsville and EP.

They are 4-6 in non-conference play. Their PP is "humming" at 15% and the PK is an abysmal 68%.

Their goaltending is average at best. The #1 starter is 8th in GAA and 6th in Save % in the Missota conference alone.

I'm all ears. Give me some factual input that they are top 10 material.

Thanks.

[starmvp]

HSHW:

Where should AHA be slotted? They have two nice wins all year: Burnsville and EP.

They are 4-6 in non-conference play. Their PP is "humming" at 15% and the PK is an abysmal 68%.

Their goaltending is average at best. The #1 starter is 8th in GAA and 6th in Save % in the Missota conference alone.

I'm all ears. Give me some factual input that they are top 10 material.

Thanks.

I agree with you that AHA's goaltending isn't very good. But, I don't think it's fair to compare the Missota goalies when AHA's non conference schedule is 10x better than any other Missota team...

[HShockeywatcher]

HSHW:

Where should AHA be slotted? They have two nice wins all year: Burnsville and EP.

They are 4-6 in non-conference play. Their PP is "humming" at 15% and the PK is an abysmal 68%.

Their goaltending is average at best. The #1 starter is 8th in GAA and 6th in Save % in the Missota conference alone.

I'm all ears. Give me some factual input that they are top 10 material.

Thanks.

Go back to last week's rankings and read all I've said. No need to rewrite everything. Teams can move up with close loses, it matters who you lost to.

[HockeyMN1]

I'm just gonna put in my plug for EP being #1:
Firstly, they beat HM head to head in Aldrich. I understand that you don't do your rankings just by head to head but if there is a better proving ground than together on the ice it has yet to be discovered. Secondly, the SOS between the two teams is not even comparable. HM is in their crappy conference with maybe one or two tough games every two weeks. EP literally plays top teams two or three times a week. They are in the Lake and their non-conference schedule is just as tough as anybodies. I would go as far as to compare this to being in the WAC vs. the SEC in college football. Lastly, it seems like HM is on the top of the rankings just by default, not because of any big wins they've had, and they stay there because of easy competition. EP takes a tumble against someone like Edina or DE, and they drop but HM simply doesn't have to worry about that. They have had some good wins but they don't do play the best night in and night out, which is what you have to do at the tournament. I also think EP beating Tonka and then Tonka going out and blanking Wayzata is very telling. Just my $.02.

[WHAFightingSaints]

3AA
11 Eagan
(16) Apple Valley
(27) Woodbury
(28) Cretin-Derham Hall

-The section below the top two is starting to take shape; Woodbury probably has the 3-seed locked up after their second win over Cretin. That creates an interesting match-up for the 1-seed against #4 CDH, who has shown they can beat Edina. And though the top two are a ways ahead talent-wise, both have shown they’re not immune to the upset.

Hastings plays Cretin Thursday, both have similar records with Cretin beating Hastings earlier by a goal. Does a Hastings win put them ahead of Cretin, or does Cretin's win over Edina keep them at #4?

[sllek]

Hockey Mn1:
While I agree that Eden Prairie should probably be ranked #1, I cna also see Karl's rationale for putting Hill-Murray there,a t least for now. Granted, EP beat Hill, but it was a game that was pretty much dead even. Less than two weeks ago, both teams played Holy Angels within two days of one another. Hill rolled 6-1 while EP lost 5-3. I'm not trying to say HM is the best team, they're not. I can see, however, why you could make an argument for ranking them #1. If Karl's top seeds win their section tournaments, Id seed them as follows in state:
1. Eden Prairie
2. Hill-Murray
3. Edina
4. Whichever finishes stronger between Maple Grove, Duluth East and Moorhead

[karl(east)]

Hastings plays Cretin Thursday, both have similar records with Cretin beating Hastings earlier by a goal. Does a Hastings win put them ahead of Cretin, or does Cretin's win over Edina keep them at #4?

I'd consider them, but I do think CDH's bigger regular season wins will give them the edge. Hastings would have to make it a blowout, and maybe even get some help down the stretch. Good catch though, I hadn't thought of that.

Hockey Mn1:
While I agree that Eden Prairie should probably be ranked #1, I cna also see Karl's rationale for putting Hill-Murray there,a t least for now. Granted, EP beat Hill, but it was a game that was pretty much dead even. Less than two weeks ago, both teams played Holy Angels within two days of one another. Hill rolled 6-1 while EP lost 5-3. I'm not trying to say HM is the best team, they're not. I can see, however, why you could make an argument for ranking them #1. If Karl's top seeds win their section tournaments, Id seed them as follows in state:
1. Eden Prairie
2. Hill-Murray
3. Edina
4. Whichever finishes stronger between Maple Grove, Duluth East and Moorhead

I definitely agree with the top 2, and if Edina gets it back together I'm fine with them at 3. If Burnsville wins 2AA, I'd give MG the 3-seed and Burnsville the #4. If AHA wins 2AA, MG gets the #3 and the 7AA champ gets #4.

MG beat East who beat Moorhead, so I think that would be the pecking order between those three at the moment. MG and East don't play any top teams in the last three weeks, so I don't think they can climb any higher. Moorhead could, with BSM and Hill and GR coming up.

[mn man]

I'm just gonna put in my plug for EP being #1.

Karl's got it right for now, EP lost 2 (#2 and #12) and tied one while HM was continuing to do their job. HM is #1 for now.

[MNHockeyFan]

6AA
2 Eden Prairie
3 Minnetonka
4 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
6 Wayzata

Unbelievably tough - dare I say unfair(?) - section. Your overall No. 1 Hill-Murray's record against 6AA: 1-2.

[bsmguy]

Karl:
Thanks for doing these rankings. I am coming in finally to support the Benilde team.

Benilde should not be a "hard team to rank". They belong right where you have them. (could be one higher because of their Minnetonka win, but NBD).

Here is the case for BSM, based on actual results.

Overall Record:
-Benilde has the best record in AA right now (15-2). And the weak schedule argument does not work so well. BSM is 8-2 against teams in your top 30, 4-2 against your top ten. They are 3-1 agains top five teams.

Quality wins:
BSM has beaten the teams you now have ranked #1, #3 and #5. No one else has done that.

Also, every team in your top ten (except #9GR) has either been beaten by BSM or beaten a team that BSM beat.

Explosive offense:
-BSM has more goals than any AA team. Weak Schedule? How about an average of 5.2 goals per game against EP, Edina, MG and Holy Angels. Consider the "early" HM and Tonka games and the average is still 4.5 GPP against top 15 teams.

No bad losses:
-BSM is undefeated and untied outside of your current top ten.

Some other facts:
-They just blew out your #3A team (Totino) by 9-2 and a AA bubble team (Osseo) by 8-2.
-They had three players in the Elite League Top 20 in scoring this year.
-Depth? They have eight players averaging more than a point per game.

[PuckU126]

HSHW:

Where should AHA be slotted? They have two nice wins all year: Burnsville and EP.

They are 4-6 in non-conference play. Their PP is "humming" at 15% and the PK is an abysmal 68%.

Their goaltending is average at best. The #1 starter is 8th in GAA and 6th in Save % in the Missota conference alone.

I'm all ears. Give me some factual input that they are top 10 material.

Thanks.

Go back to last week's rankings and read all I've said. No need to rewrite everything. Teams can move up with close loses, it matters who you lost to.

Many people fail to grasp this point of view; I am not one of them. Most look at it as a win/loss, black/white perspective.

[bubblehockey27]

I thought the section rankings were spot on.

[puck81]

Karl:
Thanks for doing these rankings. I am coming in finally to support the Benilde team.

Benilde should not be a "hard team to rank". They belong right where you have them. (could be one higher because of their Minnetonka win, but NBD).

Here is the case for BSM, based on actual results.

Overall Record:
-Benilde has the best record in AA right now (15-2). And the weak schedule argument does not work so well. BSM is 8-2 against teams in your top 30, 4-2 against your top ten. They are 3-1 agains top five teams.

Quality wins:
BSM has beaten the teams you now have ranked #1, #3 and #5. No one else has done that.

Also, every team in your top ten (except #9GR) has either been beaten by BSM or beaten a team that BSM beat.

Explosive offense:
-BSM has more goals than any AA team. Weak Schedule? How about an average of 5.2 goals per game against EP, Edina, MG and Holy Angels. Consider the "early" HM and Tonka games and the average is still 4.5 GPP against top 15 teams.

No bad losses:
-BSM is undefeated and untied outside of your current top ten.

Some other facts:
-They just blew out your #3A team (Totino) by 9-2 and a AA bubble team (Osseo) by 8-2.
-They had three players in the Elite League Top 20 in scoring this year.
-Depth? They have eight players averaging more than a point per game.

Excellent first post and spot on. I also agree with HockeyMN1 Ep should be ranked #1.

[Doglover]

Much as I hate to say it - I think EP should be #1. Agree Sections right on.
Thanks Karl - look forward every week for your rankings. Appreciate all the thought that goes into it.

[BodyShots]

#1 BSM
#2 EP
#3 HM
#4 Tonka
#5 MG
#6 Way