AA Rankings for 1/16/11

[karl(east)]

Time for another week of AA ranking roulette! This week, sorting out the very top was the biggest challenge. It was also a good week for a lot of bubble teams, and the list of contenders seems to be growing rather than shrinking.

The big news this upcoming week is the start of the Lake Conference season, which pits four of the top seven teams against one another over the next month. This leads to many important questions as to how we value losses within the conference, and especially in how we compare them to the non-Lake top teams (Hill-Murray is in good position to run the table, DE may lose a game or two but should be favored in all of their remaining games, and BSM faces Shattuck and two or three other decent but beatable teams along with their NSC cakewalk).

The second record listed after the team name is their record against the other teams currently in the top 15

1. Eden Prairie (10-3/6-3)
-There’s not much shame in going down on the road in Duluth in OT, but it’s another narrow loss for the Eagles, which creates a conundrum at the top. But in the end, I look at their brutal schedule and their very narrow losses, and I can’t find it in me to drop them from the top spot. They’re probably the most tenuous #1 I’ve had since I started the rankings, but their losses have all been tight games on the road, and in a crazy year, all their big wins have to count for something. It’s becoming cliché to say so, but they’ve got another big week ahead of them, with two very dangerous opponents on the docket.
This week: Thurs vs. #14 Holy Angels, Sat vs. #7 Wayzata

2. Duluth East (12-2/4-2)
-No team had a bigger week than the Hounds, who put together hard-fought victories over section challenger Grand Rapids and #1 Eden Prairie. The defense, which was a problem back in their earlier games against top teams, now looks much stronger. They have a decent case for #1, but I can’t bring myself to put them up there. They can’t afford to rest on their laurels, as they face a potential trap game in Apple Valley, then a decent St. Cloud Tech team.
This week: Tues at Apple Valley, Sat vs. St. Cloud Tech

3. Edina (9-2-2/6-2-1)
-Continued their string of narrow wins by knocking off Benilde, and now things get really interesting, as they take on a Wayzata team that’s given them trouble lately and then face Minnetonka for the first time since the state title game last year. Some people have plugged this team for #1--they have beaten the two teams ahead of them--but I couldn’t get past the less-than-stellar loss and tie; all the other top teams are pretty clean in that regard, and Edina isn’t. But they’ve pulled off their tightrope act impressively so far, and it’s time to see if they can keep it up. They can definitely earn their way to the top with some big wins.
This week: Thurs vs. #7 Wayzata, Sat vs. #6 Minnetonka

4. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (11-2/3-2)
-Came up short against Edina, though they played relatively well, then demolished St. Louis Park, as expected. The week ahead features two NSC teams, though if anyone in the conference is capable of giving them an interesting game, it’s Totino-Grace.
This week: Tues at Irondale, Sat at Totino-Grace

5. Hill-Murray (9-3-1/2-3-1)
-It’s hard to really know how to rank the Pioneers. Their wins and losses put them here, but they seem a lot stronger than they were back in early December, and I suspect they really belong a couple of spots higher. The good news is that their schedule now gives them a huge advantage over the other top teams, and they should be able to go on a run as the other teams stumble. They should climb in time. Face one of their bigger remaining challenges this week.
This week: Tues at #14 Holy Angels, Sat vs. Henry Sibley

6. Minnetonka (10-3-1/3-2)
-Not flashy, but they continue to pile up the necessary wins as the teams around them go down. Were fortunate to get Hopkins in their first Lake game, though they’ve also got a grudge match with Edina looming; time to try to make up for that state title game. If they can pull that one off, they’ll suddenly be in great shape, and a very real contender for the top spot.
This week: Thurs vs. Hopkins, Sat at #3 Edina

7. Wayzata (12-3/3-3)
-What’s with this team? Are they simply incapable of beating Moorhead, or is there something seriously wrong here? For now, I will lean towards the former answer, and with many of the teams around them losing, they’re not getting whacked as badly as they perhaps should. There’s just too much talent on this squad for them to be plummeting in the rankings. We’ll get a real answer this week, as both Edina and EP are on the docket.
This week: Thurs at #3 Edina, Sat vs. #1 Eden Prairie

8. Maple Grove (9-3-1/1-3)
-Much like Tonka they aren’t doing anything flashy, but they are getting the job done, and in this year’s AA that’s a surprisingly unique claim to fame. Simply taking care of business in the NWSC makes them look good, and their next couple of weeks shouldn’t pose any real challenges, either.
This week: Tues at Rogers

9. Burnsville (9-3-2/1-3-1)
-Lost to Eden Prairie this past week, but also got an important win over Apple Valley. I’m still not completely sold on them, but this next week should solve that--their next three games are the toughest ones left on their schedule. A big week will solidify their position near the top, but a rough one will raise new questions.
This week: Thurs at #10 Eagan, Sat vs. Lakeville South

10. Eagan (10-4-1/1-2-1)
-Once again, the much-hyped Wildcats take a stumble they should not have. At this point, the inconsistency is becoming a real worry. Their game against Burnsville will be crucial to a bounce-back.
This week: Thurs vs. #9 Burnsville, Sat at Prior Lake

11. Grand Rapids (11-3-1/1-2)
-It was a rough week for the Thunderhawks, who took a nasty spill against Hermantown and then came up on the short end of a tight game against section rival Duluth East. (Their drop in the rankings has a lot more to do with the Hermantown loss than it does with the East loss.) They’re still a very dangerous team, but have to make sure this little skid doesn’t snowball into something worse; their next two opponents are capable of pulling an upset if they’re not careful.
This week: Tues vs. Cloquet, Fri vs. Hibbing

12. Moorhead (8-4-1/2-3-1)
-Despite having lost several important players to suspensions, the Spuds got their second huge win over Wayzata. They also picked up a convincing win over section title contender St. Cloud Tech this past week, which certainly helps their status. They’ve done an excellent job of taking care of business against non-elite competition so far, and they’ll have to keep that up this week, as they face the top two 8A teams.
This week: Tues vs. Buffalo, Thurs at East Grand Forks, Sat vs. Warroad

13. Bemidji (14-1-1/0-0-1)
-Time to bring this team towards the top: with a convincing win over Roseau and a gaudy record, they’ve joined the statewide conversation and have a real chance at breaking up the Roseau-Moorhead duopoly over 8AA. An interesting week ahead of them, as they take on Brainerd and the team that has suddenly become the darling of Class A, Hermantown.
This week: Fri vs. Brainerd, Sat vs. Hermantown

14. Holy Angels (8-4/1-2)
-Another very narrow loss to a top team, which means they can probably compete with anyone. They’ll need to step it up another notch this week, as they play two of the state’s elite teams; they could drop two games this week and still hold their position in the rankings. Time to see if they can put an exclamation point on this recent run of theirs.
This week: Tues vs. #5 Hill-Murray, Thurs at #1 Eden Prairie, Fri vs. New Prague

15. White Bear Lake (9-4-1/0-2)
-Brought down Roseville to remain undefeated in the SEC. Continue to get the job done in the conference, which is crucial. Next up are two teams they should beat, though they are capable of causing problems.
This week: Thurs at Hastings, Sat vs. Woodbury

On the Outside Looking In
Lakeville South (6-4-2/0-3)
-The Cougars had a huge week, with a convincing win over section rival Lakeville North and a win over Apple Valley. After their early struggles, they’re finally coming together and looking dangerous down the stretch. It’s still not quite enough to crack the top 15; a win over Burnsville on Saturday could do that for them, though.

Apple Valley (9-5/0-4)
-Going down to Lakeville South sends them out of the rankings. For all the hype they generated coming into the season, their best win at the moment was against Jefferson, and their margins of defeat haven’t exactly been encouraging, either. Get a crack at Duluth East this week; a win could restore some pride.

Cloquet (12-4/0-2)
-They’re not playing elite competition, but they’re piling up the wins. Their rematch with Grand Rapids this week is worth watching, as the teams have been going in opposite directions lately.

Roseville (7-4-4/0-2-1)
-Picked up an important win over Cretin and played WBL pretty close, though they lost. Nothing too flashy, but they continue to look decent.

Blaine (8-3-3/1-1-3)
-Two weeks ago, they were looking like a dangerous team that could compete with anyone; now, they’re struggling to stay afloat in the NWSC. They have a rematch with the Champlin Park team that upset them this week.

Beyond that, we find a 7-7 Roseau team, a decent Stillwater team, and a bunch of NWSC teams that have looked decent lately in Elk River, Centennial, and Osseo. Bloomington Jefferson is back in the picture now as well.

Section Run-Through

1AA
(16) Lakeville South
Lakeville North
-South’s convincing win over rapidly-fading North puts them in the driver’s seat, though South won both regular season meetings last year before falling apart in the section final. Their win over AV also gives us some hope that the section champion will put together a passable showing at State.

2AA
3 Edina
14 Holy Angels
9 Burnsville
Bloomington Jefferson
-Edina’s win over AHA has probably cemented the section seeding in place; I suppose Jefferson could upset Burnsville in one of their SSC meetings, but I would be surprised if the final seeding changes from this. Edina will then have an easier semifinal than usual (unless Jefferson takes some momentum out of that Eagan win), but they had very close escapes against Burnsville and AHA, so the section final should be a great one.

3AA
10 Eagan
(17) Apple Valley
-Eagan’s win over AV has them in the top spot for now, and none of the teams in the crowded chase pack has done anything to create any separation. It’s a two-horse race, with regular season meeting #2 coming in early February. The top two also need to get themselves together, since neither has been doing particularly well lately, and are fading out of the conversation for seeding at state.

4AA
5 Hill-Murray
15 White Bear Lake
Stillwater
(19) Roseville

-WBL has solidified its position as the 2-seed with wins over Roseville and Stillwater, which now will have to fight for the 3-seed. Hill remains alone up on top.

5AA
8 Maple Grove
Centennial
(20) Blaine
Osseo
-Maple Grove plods along on top, but the big news here is Centennial’s convincing win over Blaine--their loss to MG was close, so they definitely should be considered a contender for the section title. Osseo also had a decent showing against MG this past week, so they’re not completely out of it.

6AA
1 Eden Prairie
4 Benilde
6 Minnetonka
7 Wayzata
-The state’s best section remains congested at the top; EP is in line for the top seed at the moment but has certainly shown they’re beatable; Benilde has earned the two-spot for now. The next few weeks should shake things up quite a bit as the three public schools go at each other in the Lake.

7AA
2 Duluth East
11 Grand Rapids
(18) Cloquet
Elk River
-East takes command of the race for the top spot with the win over Rapids, though it clearly shows the Hounds can’t take anything for granted. Now the debate over the 3-spot gets going; Cloquet has games against the top two left on its schedule, and ER also goes to visit East.

8AA
13 Bemidji
Roseau
12 Moorhead
St. Cloud Tech
-Bemidji’s win over Roseau has them in line for the top seed at the moment, though they have to play both Moorhead and Roseau again. Moorhead may be the best team in the section, but at this point would only be the 3-seed since they lost to Roseau and tied Bemidji. Plenty of intrigue to follow down the stretch here.

[AverageHockeyJoe]

C'mon Karl, your Hounds deserve the #1 slot this week!!

I think the top 3 should be:

1. Duluth East
2. Edina
3. EP

[Potatohead9]

Well done Karl! Thanks
Moorhead has a makeup game with Buffalo on the 18th.

[starmvp]

I'd say these rankings are pretty accurate. It has been an interesting season. Nice job

[crosscheck20]

Pretty accurate indeed.
I think Holy Angels should be in top 10 as they took both #6 Minnetonka and #3 Edina to OT and losing by 1 goal. Otherwise looks good!

[blueblood]

Karl has it right with AHA. AHA is not top 10 material yet. Top 10 teams win games against top 10 competion.

Karl may be off with Moorhead as they could definetly be considered top 10 sliding in at the Eagan spot and moving everyone down one spot.

Agree with Karl's 2AA assessment giving #2 seed to AHA with their win over Burnsville in the Schwan's Cup. A win over Hill or EP this week should lock them in....

[HockeyMN1]

10. Eagan (10-4-1/1-2-1)
-Once again, the much-hyped Wildcats take a stumble they should not have. At this point, the inconsistency is becoming a real worry. Their game against Burnsville will be crucial to a bounce-back.
This week: Thurs vs. #9 Burnsville, Sat at Prior Lake

Much hyped by one person.

[AlterEagle]

I hate Edina period but there's no one else worthy of #1 right now.

DE gets the nod for the win.

EP needs to be slapped for poor goal tending and lack luster defense performance from their star studded core when it counts.

1. Edina
2. DE
3. EP

Or maybe it should look like this as there is no clear title holder now.

1. Edina, DE, EP.
4. BSM
5. HM

[LASERBLUE135]

This has got to be the most competitive and diverse group I've seen in many years. This is shaping up to be a great year of HS hockey with no clear group of state powers.

[northwoods oldtimer]

This has got to be the most competitive and diverse group I've seen in many years. This is shaping up to be a great year of HS hockey with no clear group of state powers.

I agree it sure is making for one heck of a fun season. My opinion there are just alot of very good hockey players in the state of Minnesota right now which translates into some vey fun teams to watch. I think Herb Brooks would be proud to see this season of high school hockey. Enjoy the season folks it is a fun one.

[WHAFightingSaints]

Tough to rank the top 5 no doubt, and kudo's for doing so. I do believe Edina should be the #1 team at this time. Your top 3 are incredibly comparable teams, I just think that Edina's wins over both Eden Prairie and Duluth East should carry more weight and put them above those two.
When teams are that close I look for head to head matchups to try and seperate them. I know the Hornets win against EP was at home and East didn't have their top goalie but a win is a win. Their record against the Top 15 also brings me to this conclusion. I enjoy your Top 15 and Bubble breakdowns. Thanks for putting in the time.

[karl(east)]

As always, thanks for the comments.

Blueblood says Moorhead could go higher, and you could make that case, yes. The problem is that their two signature wins have come against the same team. Are they really a top-10 team, or have they just gotten themselves inside Wayzata's heads? I also listened to the DE-Moorhead game on the radio, which was every bit as bad for the Spuds as the 6-0 score made it look. Maybe I cought them on the wrong night, and they have done better since (playing EP reasonably close, for examle), but I'm not convinced they are in the same league as the likes of Eagan and Burnsville.

The top 3 are indeed hard to rank; it would be easy to just throw up our hands and call it a 3-way tie. But having seen a decent amount of all three teams so far this year, I do think EP is just a tiny, tiny bit better (despite the losses to Edina and DE). It's certainly possible that I'm putting a little too much stock in Edina's tie against Blaine. East has a good case for the top spot too, but I couldn't bring myself to do that. So for now, I'll go with this--who knows what the Classic Lake season will do for us.

I have the general sense that I've started taking head-to-head results less into account than I used to...I'll make a note of that, and check back after the year to see if that was smart or not.

We definitely have the makings of a great end to the season. We have 4 sections represented in the top 5, and all 8 in the top 16. No one is that much better than anyone else. Even though the top 5 are pretty clear, they could all go down to a number of teams outside that group.

[east hockey]

The top 3 are indeed hard to rank; it would be easy to just throw up our hands and call it a 3-way tie. But having seen a decent amount of all three teams so far this year, I do think EP is just a tiny, tiny bit better (despite the losses to Edina and DE). It's certainly possible that I'm putting a little too much stock in Edina's tie against Blaine. East has a good case for the top spot too, but I couldn't bring myself to do that. So for now, I'll go with this--who knows what the Classic Lake season will do for us.

Why not? I quite enjoy the cries of "Homer! Homer! Homer!" whenever someone thinks you have East rated too high. Should have seen a couple of the emails I got from people coming unglued when PageStat had East at #2.

Lee

[karl(east)]

The top 3 are indeed hard to rank; it would be easy to just throw up our hands and call it a 3-way tie. But having seen a decent amount of all three teams so far this year, I do think EP is just a tiny, tiny bit better (despite the losses to Edina and DE). It's certainly possible that I'm putting a little too much stock in Edina's tie against Blaine. East has a good case for the top spot too, but I couldn't bring myself to do that. So for now, I'll go with this--who knows what the Classic Lake season will do for us.

Why not? I quite enjoy the cries of "Homer! Homer! Homer!" whenever someone thinks you have East rated too high. Should have seen a couple of the emails I got from people coming unglued when PageStat had East at #2.

Lee

Because PS2 still has East at #2, of course.

I kept EP at #1 because of how well they've done against an incredibly difficult schedule. Like I said in the comment, an OT loss on the road to another great team isn't very damning. And as I said, it's a very narrow #1--East could very easily jump into the top spot if they take care of business and EP falters during the Lake season.

Also, so I didn't want to spend the entire week answering the endless accusations of "homer!" that follow me whenever I put East high. Like in the preseason rankings, when I put East at #5, and that was "far too high." Or a couple weeks ago when I had them at #2 before everyone else did. Or--I'll stop now.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

The top 3 are indeed hard to rank; it would be easy to just throw up our hands and call it a 3-way tie. But having seen a decent amount of all three teams so far this year, I do think EP is just a tiny, tiny bit better (despite the losses to Edina and DE). It's certainly possible that I'm putting a little too much stock in Edina's tie against Blaine. East has a good case for the top spot too, but I couldn't bring myself to do that. So for now, I'll go with this--who knows what the Classic Lake season will do for us.

Why not? I quite enjoy the cries of "Homer! Homer! Homer!" whenever someone thinks you have East rated too high. Should have seen a couple of the emails I got from people coming unglued when PageStat had East at #2.

Lee

Because PS2 still has East at #2, of course.

I kept EP at #1 because of how well they've done against an incredibly difficult schedule. Like I said in the comment, an OT loss on the road to another great team isn't very damning. And as I said, it's a very narrow #1--East could very easily jump into the top spot if they take care of business and EP falters during the Lake season.

Also, so I didn't want to spend the entire week answering the endless accusations of "homer!" that follow me whenever I put East high. Like in the preseason rankings, when I put East at #5, and that was "far too high." Or a couple weeks ago when I had them at #2 before everyone else did. Or--I'll stop now.

Put East on top. They just beat EP. By the way, I am a sore loser. I don't mind losing as long as it's the other team that does it.

[dump and chase]

Just to throw another twist in the rankings east falls to valley... Gotta love high school hockey!!

[Slap Shot]

Here's hoping Tonka can reverse tables on an Edina team that will likely remain a top favorite for the remainder of the year. Yeah, a former Skipper can hope they finally get over the hump.

[hockeyhair2011]

Edina has quite a stretch of tough games over the next week or two; and I think they are on the verge of unraveling for a bit. They've suffered recent losses to injury and such and have a few JV players filling those spots. The last few years they've gone through a January swoon.

[karl(east)]

Edina has quite a stretch of tough games over the next week or two; and I think they are on the verge of unraveling for a bit. They've suffered recent losses to injury and such and have a few JV players filling those spots. The last few years they've gone through a January swoon.

I too have noticed their January swoons the past two years. And though most on the Edina-Wayzata game thread are picking Edina, some by large margins, I'd note that Wayzata has given Edina 4 of its last 8 losses. I would not be at all shocked to see a mini-tailspin from the Hornets in the near future, though they'll still be there in the end.

[MNHockeyFan]

...And though most on the Edina-Wayzata game thread are picking Edina, some by large margins, I'd note that Wayzata has given Edina 4 of its last 8 losses.

Make that 5 of 9!

EP also loses...will that allow East to take over as the new No. 1?

[eastside hockey]

Looks like Bloomington Jefferson is definately NOT back in the picture. But what does this loss say about Eagan??????

[karl(east)]

Yes, this week has been good and ridiculous, and we still have a full slate of top-notch games on Saturday.

I am pretty sure of what I will do at the top, though. No sneak previews, but that statement should give you a hint.

It's a bit crazy that Eagan lost to a team that lost to Prior Lake. That's just the sort of year it's been. But with Eagan giving the team right ahead of them (Burnsville) a good game tonight, it shouldn't hurt them too much. And they do play PL themselves on Saturday...

Burnsville suddenly looks pretty good ranking-wise, though I'm not sure I'll put them as high as I logically could.

[blueblood]

With Edina losing to Wayzata, EP losing to AHA and his beloved Hounds losing to AV, I gotta think Karl is going to go with the Pioneers. bb's AA top 10:

1) Hill
2) Edina
3) DE
4) BSM
5) Wayzata
6) EP
7) Tonka
Burnsville
9) Maple Grove
10) Grand Rapids

[starmvp]

With Edina losing to Wayzata, EP losing to AHA and his beloved Hounds losing to AV, I gotta think Karl is going to go with the Pioneers. bb's AA top 10:

1) Hill
2) Edina
3) DE
4) BSM
5) Wayzata
6) EP
7) Tonka
Burnsville
9) Maple Grove
10) Grand Rapids

Not bad BB. I'll post what I think, tomorrow. We'll see what Karl does Sunday!

[east hockey]

Based on scores I have so far tonight, PageStat has bumped Hill-Murray up to #2 and East down to #3. However, Eden Prairie's lead is now down to 0.200 ratings points, down from 0.67 (as it stood on Sunday). Wayzata and Edina also passed Eagan, which seems far more realistic to me.

Going to run PS-RPI (which only considers wins/losses and ignores margins of victory).

Lee