AA Rankings for 1/9/11

[karl(east)]

We’ve reached the approximate halfway point of the regular season. There was no real movement at the top this past week, but there was some shifting a little further down in the rankings, and we learned a little more about many of the teams in the process.

After each team’s record, you will see two numbers. This is the crude strength of schedule measurement I have used in the past, in which each of the team’s games are assigned a value 1-5 based on the difficulty of the opponent. This is not meant to be rigorously accurate; the point is to give us a comparison between the first half SOS (the first number) and the second half SOS (the 2nd number). This can help give us an idea of how well a team has done so far, and what we might expect it to do in the second half. Also, if the Hub doesn’t have a makeup date for a postponed game, it was omitted.

Also making its first appearance of the season is the “need” feature. Enjoy, and challenge or elaborate if you disagree, since I obviously have not seen each team as much as one of their loyal fans will have.

1. Eden Prairie (9-2) 4.545/4.071
-A win over Hill solidifies their standing as the top team in the state; they appear to have fully recovered from that mid-December slide. Nothing is assured, but they are the undisputed #1 for the moment. Things don’t get any easier from here, as they play two difficult road games this week.
Need: To develop that third line--you can bet Hill-Murray will, and should those two rematch at some point, EP must be able to match that depth.
This week: Tues at #11 Burnsville, Sat at #5 Duluth East

2. Edina (8-2-2) 4.167/4.083
-Scraped out another big win, this time against Holy Angels. They have a tendency to escape with dramatic wins (Burnsville, Eagan, Eden Prairie, Duluth East, AHA), which is an excellent trait to have, and perhaps not an unsurprising one for the defending state champions. Still, it shows they can be vulnerable, a fact the Blaine tie confirms. Only one game this upcoming week, but it’s another big one.
Need: I normally advocate depth, and Curt Giles seems to have bought into that. However, I wonder if Edina is perhaps asking too little of its top players. With the likes of Sit and Fogarty, this year’s Hornets have more top end talent than last year’s. They need to find the right balance between their incredible depth, and using their stars well.
This week: Tues at #3 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (10-1) 3.455/3.071
-Took care of business against a pair of NSC opponents, and now face what looks to be a bellwether game against Edina. A win would cement them at or near the top of the rankings, but a loss might confirm the lingering doubts I’ve been expressing about this team for a while. Time to see what the Red Knights are made of, especially since they only play a handful of challenging games after this one.
Need: More contributions from the players who aren’t their stars. Also, strong goaltending.
This week: Tues vs. #2 Edina, Thurs vs. St. Louis Park

4, Hill-Murray (8-3-1) 3.833/2.857
-Yes, they lost this past week, but I don’t think losing by 1 goal to the consensus #1-ranked team in a tightly contested game are grounds for dropping the Pioneers, who otherwise seem to be doing quite well lately. Also, with the schedule they have left, running the table is a distinct possibility--Holy Angels and Moorhead may pose challenges, as will the two games against STA, but that’s about it.
Need: The defense to gain more experience and solidify--if it does, look out. May be the closest team to a finished product out there.
This week: Thurs vs. North St. Paul, Sat at Tartan

5. Duluth East (9-2) 3.455/3.615
-Inaugurated high school hockey at Amsoil Arena in decisive fashion against their cross-town rivals; now, it’s time for East’s biggest week of the year. After a warm-up act against Anoka, the Hounds battle Grand Rapids for the top seed in 7AA, then take on #1 Eden Prairie. A big week could stick them at or very close to the top of the rankings; a weak one could drop them down around #10. Time for this team to prove itself.
Need: Primarily, to give the young defensemen more experience. They also need to continue to sort out the 2nd and 3rd lines so as to find the right combinations for more balanced scoring.
This week: Tues at Anoka, Thurs vs. #7 Grand Rapids, Sat vs. #1 Eden Prairie

6. Wayzata (11-2) 3.538/4.250
-Rebounded some from their ugly holiday tourney with a strong win over Lakeville North, but for me, some questions still linger. The week ahead is the easiest left on their schedule, but the games are not guaranteed wins; Champlin is fresh off an upset of Blaine, and then they get a grudge match against the team that wrecked their undefeated season.
Need: More balance--this program is too deep to rely on a handful of forwards to do all the heavy lifting.
This week: Tues at Champlin Park, Sat vs. #14 Moorhead

7. Grand Rapids (11-1-1) 3.385/3.250
-Handled Duluth Marshall in their only game this past week, and this week they take two road trips to the Duluth area for a pair of challenges. While I expect them to beat Hermantown, the Hawks are undefeated, and that should make for a pretty good warm-up act for the 7AA showdown on Thursday. A win will establish Rapids as an elite team, while a loss will leave them playing catch-up for the rest of the regular season.
Need: The defense seems a bit thin.
This week: Tues at Hermantown, Sat at #5 Duluth East

8. Minnetonka (8-3-1) 3.917/4.250
-Put together wins over Eagan and Moorhead, which helps their stock considerably; the Eagan game shows they can still give any team a good run. Have an interesting week of games against private schools ahead of them, featuring one of the top A teams and a rising AA team.
Need: Like many of the teams around them, they need their inexperienced D core to get more experience.
This week: Fri at Blake, Sat vs. #13 Holy Angels

9. Eagan (8-3-1) 3.583/2.769
-A busy and decidedly mixed week for the Wildcats, as they jumped into the driver’s seat in 3AA with a win over Apple Valley, but showed they may still have some work to do in a loss to Minnetonka. Play their last non-conference game this week against a potentially difficult opponent, then launch into the SSC schedule with two very winnable games.
Need: For all the talent here, they have hit a few too many obstacles. Perhaps it’s inexperience, perhaps it’s coaching, perhaps it’s just bad luck--it’s hard to say. (Disclaimer: this is one of the 3 teams in the top 15 I have not seen in some form this year.)
This week: Tues at Hastings, Thurs vs. Bloomington Kennedy, Sat at Bloomington Jefferson

10. Maple Grove (8-3-1) 3.583/3.077
-Rolled to a win over Coon Rapids in their only game this past week, and have another one game week ahead of them as they take on a decent NWSC team. No serious challenges until the end of the month.
Need: A few players to step up and carry them--right now they seem deep, but can’t match the star power of some of the elite teams.
This week: Sat at Osseo

11. Burnsville (7-2-2) 3.545/3.357
-Restored some order after their rough Schwan Cup with big wins over lesser SSC competition. They now face the most challenging week left on their schedule, with a game against #1 and against conference rival Apple Valley. It’s hard to tell which direction this team is going right now, so these games will be huge.
Need: Stronger defense--they give up too many goals, especially for a team with one of the most hyped goalies in the state.
This week: Tues vs. #1 Eden Prairie, Thurs at #12 Apple Valley, Sat vs. Bloomington Kennedy

12. Apple Valley (9-3) 3.167/3.308
-A third game against a top-10 opponent proffered the same result as the first two, which fuels my continued skepticism about AV. They did, at least, outshoot Eagan, which suggests they still might turn it around. Their next three opponents, Eagan aside, might be the toughest three left on their schedule, so it will be an important week to watch for the Eagles.
Need: To prove they have the horses to run with other elite teams.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 Burnsville, Sat at Lakeville South

13. Holy Angels (6-3) 3.222/2.938
-With their narrow loss to Edina, I now feel relatively confident in saying that their early losses were just natural growing pains for a team that started its season very late. They may not dominate the way past Holy Angels teams have, but they clearly have some firepower and can keep up with just about anyone. After a pair of Missota games, they then play three straight against top ten teams, the first of which they visit this Saturday. Their SOS number seems a bit skewed, since there is such a huge discrepancy in the quality of their conference and non-conference opponents.
Need: Stronger defense.
This week: Tues at Northfield, Thurs vs. Chaska, Sat at #8 Minnetonka

14. Moorhead (5-4-1) 3.909/3.692
-Picked up a couple of convincing wins over 8A contenders, then played Minnetonka pretty well in their loss. Seem to have made some big strides since their early-season struggles, and will give just about any good team a tough game. Busy week ahead as they face an 8AA contender and the team that had been #1 before the Spuds first met them.
Need: The offense to step up.
This week: Tues at St. Cloud Tech, Sat at #6 Wayzata

15. White Bear Lake (7-4-1) 3.583/3.000
-Had an up-and-down week, as they put up an impressive win over Stillwater but followed it up with a tie against Mounds View. With nothing but conference games left on the schedule, they are in a position as the favorite in all of their remaining games now; however, there’s enough parity in the SEC that things won’t come easy, and they will still need to work pretty hard to prove they belong in the top 15. Two teams that could possibly trip them up are on the docket.
Need: More scoring depth.
This week: Thurs vs. Forest Lake, Sat at Roseville

Bubble
Blaine (7-2-3) 3.500/3.154
-Ugly loss to Champlin Park confirms some of my doubts about this team. Still in a good position to make a pretty nice run through the NWSC, though.

Roseau (7-5) 3.500/3.308
-The streaking Rams have ripped off seven in a row now, though the opposition is about to get tougher. Two road games this week, the first against rival Warroad and the second against section contender Bemidji.

Bemidji (11-1-1) 2.769/3.417
-Picked up a significant win in 8AA by beating St. Cloud Tech, and now face an even tougher task against Roseau. Time to see if the Lumberjacks can make us believers.

Lakeville North (6-5-1) 3.583/3.077
-Recent results against other top teams have not been as good as previous ones, which tempers the hype somewhat. Still, they’ve proven they can play with anyone. SSC schedule gives them a chance to pile up some wins, and also take a few more shots at top teams in the process.

It was a rough week for the rest of the bubble. Elk River took a loss it should not have, and Cloquet went down against a decent, but hardly great, Virginia team. St. Cloud Tech also lost, and Lakeville South tied Bloomington Jefferson. Stillwater got beaten pretty badly by White Bear, Roseville continues to muddle along, and no one else in the NWSC or SEC has done enough to get recognized yet.

[SoftMitts]

I think you will like Eagan when you see them.

Thanks for taking the time to do this!

[blueblood]

Good as always Karl.

One other need for Edina that you may wish to look into is the need for their #1 goaltender to step it up. (See my topic Titled: The Loaded Lake Conference).

For that reason and the fact that they have given up 14 PPG's to date (which is double that of Ep, Wayzata and Tonka), I have Wayzata over Edina in my Lake Conference review.

[HShockeywatcher]

Missed Burnsville and East's Rankings under Eden Prairie fyi.

3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (10-1) 3.455/3.071
-Took care of business against a pair of NSC opponents, and now face what looks to be a bellwether game against Edina. A win would cement them at or near the top of the rankings, but a loss might confirm the lingering doubts I’ve been expressing about this team for a while. Time to see what the Red Knights are made of, especially since they only play a handful of challenging games after this one.
Need: More contributions from the players who aren’t their stars. Also, strong goaltending.
This week: Tues vs. #2 Edina, Thurs vs. St. Louis Park

I disagree with the utmost respect. I would say that a loss this Tuesday simplifies them at the #3 spot. If they lose, they will have lost to your #1 and #2, while having beat your #4, #8 and #10. They play they schedule they have, but I don't know how you could put Hill ahead of them.

That being said, it would be great to see the private school in this match (yeah, there's only one) winning, which would make for an ultimately great section final if they can make it.

[starmvp]

Thanks again for the rankings...

[northwoods oldtimer]

Big 7AA test for both Duluth East and Grand Rapids this week. Neither team should hang their head should they take the loss and one will. They are both 2 of the better clubs representing the North this season. Not so sure you want the #1 target on your back in 7AA this season 5 teams can knock any one team off come playoffs. Outside the cupcake quarterfinal it will come down to 2 tough games to get to excel for all clubs vying for the 7AA title. Nice to see strength back in the section.

[karl(east)]

Good as always Karl.

One other need for Edina that you may wish to look into is the need for their #1 goaltender to step it up. (See my topic Titled: The Loaded Lake Conference).

For that reason and the fact that they have given up 14 PPG's to date (which is double that of Ep, Wayzata and Tonka), I have Wayzata over Edina in my Lake Conference review.

I definitely understand that (and thanks for the very nice Lake preview, by the way--I agree with the 6-win mark for winning the conference). Wayzata does seem to have Edina's numer recently, and Edina's penalty problems may come back to haunt them against EP and Wayzata. (I suppose the frequent need to be on the PK may be part of the reason their top players are not putting up big numbers, as I mentioned in the "need" comment.) But in the long run I still like the Hornets' chances, if they can figure out how to properly utilize all that depth.

Re: HSHockeyWatcher on BSM: I think the margin of victory/defeat in their game against Edina will be very important in how I judge them. Also, we're getting to the point where not all games will be judged equally--more recent results will begin to take precedent over early-season wins.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Karl, I think the ranking looks great, things are finally starting to shake out now, hopefully the second half of the season will be easier on you to rank. As for Eagan, you mentioned too many obstacles, I think its an experience thing. They have only 5 seniors of which only 1 played regularily on varsity last year, the other four were on JV, although they have stepped in nicely. The rest of the team is Juniors and I think they are still finding their way as the leaders of this team. Last years team was much more Senior led. I predicted at the beginning of the season that this team would compete well in the first half of the season but maybe not post a strong record and so far it has played out that way. 1 goal loss to Edina #2, 2 goal loss to Minnetonka #8, 2 goal win over Eden Prairie #1, 2 goal win over AppleValley #12 and a Tie against Burnsville. I think as we head into the second half of the season things will come together nicely for this group and they will be ready to make a serious run at the State Tourny. I think the coaching on this team is solid, coach Mike Taylor has led this team to State before in 06.

[SEMinnyHCKY]

I don't know if this is a good thing, but Karl; I actually look forward to Sunday evenings to read your new rankings. Thanks so much for doing them each week!

[HockeyMN1]

Still have doubts about BSM. I don't think they're a top 5 team right now.

[mn man]

I don't know if this is a good thing, but Karl; I actually look forward to Sunday evenings to read your new rankings. Thanks so much for doing them each week!

Ditto, you are the man Karl..

[LetsPlayHockey22]

Benilde is a top 10 team IMO but will have a very hard time making it out of their section. With all the up and down losses from many teams I would say it is a year where anyone can beat anyone in the top 20. Blaine for example with the loss to Champlin, they can play with some top teams, but after the losses of Bjugstad and Scheid, they don't have much depth. I like Maple Grove as the dark horse this year come March.

[HockeyMN1]

Benilde is a top 10 team IMO but will have a very hard time making it out of their section. With all the up and down losses from many teams I would say it is a year where anyone can beat anyone in the top 20. Blaine for example with the loss to Champlin, they can play with some top teams, but after the losses of Bjugstad and Scheid, they don't have much depth. I like Maple Grove as the dark horse this year come March.

I'll give you top 5 or 7 or 8 maybe, but top 20? There is some incredible talent at EP and Edina and Wayzata and Hill...I would have a very very hard time seeing some teams in the 10-20 range taking these guys down in a game with any meaning whatsoever. You use Blaine's loss to Champlain as an example but Blaine isn't even close to the top few teams.

[LetsPlayHockey22]

Benilde is a top 10 team IMO but will have a very hard time making it out of their section. With all the up and down losses from many teams I would say it is a year where anyone can beat anyone in the top 20. Blaine for example with the loss to Champlin, they can play with some top teams, but after the losses of Bjugstad and Scheid, they don't have much depth. I like Maple Grove as the dark horse this year come March.

I'll give you top 5 or 7 or 8 maybe, but top 20? There is some incredible talent at EP and Edina and Wayzata and Hill...I would have a very very hard time seeing some teams in the 10-20 range taking these guys down in a game with any meaning whatsoever. You use Blaine's loss to Champlain as an example but Blaine isn't even close to the top few teams.

So a tie against #2 Edina isnt close to the top few teams? Personally I would say Blaine is somewhere between 15-20 in the rankings, but they have played some good teams close, and I believe Moorhead was #20 when they beat Wayzata, so are the rankings off is it a down year? That was just an example, there are other teams in the top 20 that have lost to teams ranked well below them or not at all

[dueling21]

Benilde is a top 10 team IMO but will have a very hard time making it out of their section. With all the up and down losses from many teams I would say it is a year where anyone can beat anyone in the top 20. Blaine for example with the loss to Champlin, they can play with some top teams, but after the losses of Bjugstad and Scheid, they don't have much depth. I like Maple Grove as the dark horse this year come March.

I'll give you top 5 or 7 or 8 maybe, but top 20? There is some incredible talent at EP and Edina and Wayzata and Hill...I would have a very very hard time seeing some teams in the 10-20 range taking these guys down in a game with any meaning whatsoever. You use Blaine's loss to Champlain as an example but Blaine isn't even close to the top few teams.

So a tie against #2 Edina isnt close to the top few teams? Personally I would say Blaine is somewhere between 15-20 in the rankings, but they have played some good teams close, and I believe Moorhead was #20 when they beat Wayzata, so are the rankings off is it a down year? That was just an example, there are other teams in the top 20 that have lost to teams ranked well below them or not at all

Just another example of how another "top" team can beat another. It's a pretty good year for parity, which should result in some great playoff hockey.

[MGP103]

The Maple Grove vs Osseo game is actually 1/14/11 and im not sure why.
I think Osseo Deserves some bubble consideration, there a fun team to watch and Tim Bonner is amazing! its to bad they dont have good Defense or they would be a tuff out.

[karl(east)]

East's win over EP today, as happy as it makes me, sure complicates the rankings.

Barring a dramatic upset in the Hill-Tartan game tonight, the top 5 next week will be EP, Edina, BSM, Hill, and DE. I'm curious to hear how other people think they should be ordered...

[WHAFightingSaints]

East's win over EP today, as happy as it makes me, sure complicates the rankings.

Barring a dramatic upset in the Hill-Tartan game tonight, the top 5 next week will be EP, Edina, BSM, Hill, and DE. I'm curious to hear how other people think they should be ordered...

1 Edina (bsaed on the win over BSM)
2 EP - shouldn't fall to much for tough road loss to East
3 East - jumps up with great win over EP
4 BSM (higher than Hiil because of earlier win over Pioneers)
5 Hill - will have to hope others falter above them with an easier schedule ahead

[hockeyfan893]

WHA, I'd still keep EP at one because of their brutal schedule. A road loss to Duluth doesn't warrant the number 1 loss in my mind. I wouldn't boost Edina up over EP because although they beat BSM who beat Hill, they tied Hill and EP beat them.

[Lucia4President]

WHA, I'd still keep EP at one because of their brutal schedule. A road loss to Duluth doesn't warrant the number 1 loss in my mind. I wouldn't boost Edina up over EP because although they beat BSM who beat Hill, they tied Hill and EP beat them.

I agree. Eden Prairie should stay at No. 1. They controlled play for the majority of the game against East. The few times they did have a breakdown the Hounds took advantage of it.

[WHAFightingSaints]

WHA, I'd still keep EP at one because of their brutal schedule. A road loss to Duluth doesn't warrant the number 1 loss in my mind. I wouldn't boost Edina up over EP because although they beat BSM who beat Hill, they tied Hill and EP beat them.

Wouldn't be upset if EP stayed #1, however Edina has played a fairly tough schedule also, and has the head to head win over the Eagles. Could we see a tie at the top?

[HShockeywatcher]

WHA, I'd still keep EP at one because of their brutal schedule. A road loss to Duluth doesn't warrant the number 1 loss in my mind. I wouldn't boost Edina up over EP because although they beat BSM who beat Hill, they tied Hill and EP beat them.

I agree. Eden Prairie should stay at No. 1. They controlled play for the majority of the game against East. The few times they did have a breakdown the Hounds took advantage of it.

I'm not going to venture to try to rank these teams as I don't envy what karl will be doing tonight. That being said, while EP is very good, I'm confused why everyone has been so high on EP all.
-EP lost to Edina but since Edina lost to Rapids, EP is #1.
-EP lost to Eagan, but since they play a tough schedule, they stayed #1 and little credit was given to Eagan.
-Now, they lose to East and should stay #1 because they play a tough schedule?

Yes, they play a tough schedule, but not as tough if you omit their losses.

I'd have Edina #1. Good luck after that karl

[EHSHack]

When East lost to Edina by 1 they dropped 3 spots.

[hockeyfan893]

Edina also has that tie against Blaine pulling them down. If Blaine was ranked higher than they are, I wouldn't see too much of a problem, but that Champlain loss hurts.

[WHAFightingSaints]

Time for Lakeville South to get a little more attention? Not saying Top 10, Top 15, maybe. Nice week with wins over Lakeville North and Apple Valley. They have to be considered the favorite in Section 1AA at this point.