AA Rankings for 12/26/10

[north*hockey]

Hill Murray should easily get a good look at #2 spot.

[HShockeywatcher]

If Hill Murray wins tonight, they have to be a serious contender for second or third spot.

Not sure what happened to Edina and Blaine game. Say that it was tied, not sure who won it. If Blaine won, that would put Wayzata ahead of Edina in my books.

Eagan is making a strong push up in the rankings. Maybe too early to go higher than a 5 spot.

Edina and Blaine tied at 2.

If Hill Murray wins:
1. Eden Prairie
2. Eagan
3. Benilde
4. Hill Murray
5. Edina
(6) Tonka
(7) Blaine

If Minnetonka wins:
1. Eden Prairie
2. Eagan
3. Benilde
4. Edina
5. Minnetonka
(6) Blaine
(7) Hill Murray

Eden Prairie has losses to Eagan and Edina. There are so many common opponent wins/losses here sorting everything out will be a chore. I like Eagan simply for beating Eden Prairie. They play Minnetonka this week so we'll learn more about both teams.

[HockeyMN1]

If Hill Murray wins tonight, they have to be a serious contender for second or third spot.

Not sure what happened to Edina and Blaine game. Say that it was tied, not sure who won it. If Blaine won, that would put Wayzata ahead of Edina in my books.

Eagan is making a strong push up in the rankings. Maybe too early to go higher than a 5 spot.

Edina and Blaine tied at 2.

If Hill Murray wins:
1. Eden Prairie
2. Eagan
3. Benilde
4. Hill Murray
5. Edina
(6) Tonka
(7) Blaine

If Minnetonka wins:
1. Eden Prairie
2. Eagan
3. Benilde
4. Edina
5. Minnetonka
(6) Blaine
(7) Hill Murray

Eden Prairie has losses to Eagan and Edina. There are so many common opponent wins/losses here sorting everything out will be a chore. I like Eagan simply for beating Eden Prairie. They play Minnetonka this week so we'll learn more about both teams.

Are you going by what has happened so far or who you actually think are the best teams?

[HShockeywatcher]

If Hill Murray wins tonight, they have to be a serious contender for second or third spot.

Not sure what happened to Edina and Blaine game. Say that it was tied, not sure who won it. If Blaine won, that would put Wayzata ahead of Edina in my books.

Eagan is making a strong push up in the rankings. Maybe too early to go higher than a 5 spot.

Edina and Blaine tied at 2.

If Hill Murray wins:
1. Eden Prairie
2. Eagan
3. Benilde
4. Hill Murray
5. Edina
(6) Tonka
(7) Blaine

If Minnetonka wins:
1. Eden Prairie
2. Eagan
3. Benilde
4. Edina
5. Minnetonka
(6) Blaine
(7) Hill Murray

Eden Prairie has losses to Eagan and Edina. There are so many common opponent wins/losses here sorting everything out will be a chore. I like Eagan simply for beating Eden Prairie. They play Minnetonka this week so we'll learn more about both teams.

Are you going by what has happened so far or who you actually think are the best teams?

By what has happened. It is a mess trying to sort out the common opponent games. I could make a legitimate argument for any of those top 5 to be #1. Once you say one of them is #1, someone can come back with "yeah but they lost to team B who beat team C..." etc.

I have only seen a couple teams play, and most of them one game.

It's also intriguing to see that some teams are allowed to lose a game here and there and still be an elite team while others losing 1 or 2 drops them a lot. I was never convinced with Wayzata because of their margin of victory. But if you were convinced on them, who's to say they shouldn't still be top 3 team?

Maple Grove should also be in those talks. If you are assuming Eden Prairie is #1, Maple Grove could be in your top 5, with a close loss to Benilde and beating Wayzata.

Class A has finally gotten easier than Class AA Good luck tonight Karl!

[HockeyMN1]

Edina and Blaine tied at 2.

If Hill Murray wins:
1. Eden Prairie
2. Eagan
3. Benilde
4. Hill Murray
5. Edina
(6) Tonka
(7) Blaine

If Minnetonka wins:
1. Eden Prairie
2. Eagan
3. Benilde
4. Edina
5. Minnetonka
(6) Blaine
(7) Hill Murray

Eden Prairie has losses to Eagan and Edina. There are so many common opponent wins/losses here sorting everything out will be a chore. I like Eagan simply for beating Eden Prairie. They play Minnetonka this week so we'll learn more about both teams.

Are you going by what has happened so far or who you actually think are the best teams?

By what has happened. It is a mess trying to sort out the common opponent games. I could make a legitimate argument for any of those top 5 to be #1. Once you say one of them is #1, someone can come back with "yeah but they lost to team B who beat team C..." etc.

I have only seen a couple teams play, and most of them one game.

It's also intriguing to see that some teams are allowed to lose a game here and there and still be an elite team while others losing 1 or 2 drops them a lot. I was never convinced with Wayzata because of their margin of victory. But if you were convinced on them, who's to say they shouldn't still be top 3 team?

Maple Grove should also be in those talks. If you are assuming Eden Prairie is #1, Maple Grove could be in your top 5, with a close loss to Benilde and beating Wayzata.

Class A has finally gotten easier than Class AA Good luck tonight Karl!

Okay well here's my top ten based on who I think are actually the best teams:
1. EP
2. Edina
3. Wayzata
4. Hill
5. Benilde
6. Duluth East
7. Eagan
8. Grand Rapids
9. Tonka
10. Apple Valley

I guess that's not that different from the preseason rankings now that I look back at it but realistically although we have had a number of upsets no new team has really burst onto the scene and made me a believer in them. I think EP and Edina is pretty much a toss up but I'll believe in my Eagles at a neutral site. Wayzata is very good but way overhyped. Cameranesi was an Elite League wonder imo.

[sllek]

I think Hockey MN1 has it pretty close with his rankings. Eden Prairie could very well be the best team in the state and finish with a handful of losses with the brutal schedule they are playing. In the next two weeks alone, they face Hill Murray, Burnsville and Duluth East, all on the road. They also still have two games with Edina, Minnetonka and Wayzata, not to mention playing in the best section in the state. It's really too bad that only one team can come out of Section 6 (or Section 2 for that matter), but that's the way things are aligned right now. Late February and early March shoujold be incredible for Minnesota hockey fans.

[TheHockeyDJ]

I think Hockey MN1 has it pretty close with his rankings. Eden Prairie could very well be the best team in the state and finish with a handful of losses with the brutal schedule they are playing. In the next two weeks alone, they face Hill Murray, Burnsville and Duluth East, all on the road. They also still have two games with Edina, Minnetonka and Wayzata, not to mention playing in the best section in the state. It's really too bad that only one team can come out of Section 6 (or Section 2 for that matter), but that's the way things are aligned right now. Late February and early March shoujold be incredible for Minnesota hockey fans.

I plan on being at Mariucci the first Wednesday for the 2AA and 6AA section finals, then Thursday at Amsoil Arena in Duluth for 7AA, and Friday at the Colesium for 5AA and 3AA? Or is it 5AA and 4AA? Should be sold out buildings for all of those.

[SoftMitts]

I have seen most of the top metro teams and feel like I have a pretty good idea of those teams. Unfamiliar with out state teams but ill give my rankings.

1. EP (Equal with Way but had a better week)
2. Way (Have not seen them play this year but saw them a bunch last year)
3. HM or Tonka (Who ever wins tonight)
4. HM or Tonka (who ever lost tonight)
5. Edina (Big wins but inconsistant)
6. BSM (Not sure about this team)

[MNHockeyFan]

I have seen most of the top metro teams and feel like I have a pretty good idea of those teams. Unfamiliar with out state teams but ill give my rankings.

1. EP (Equal with Way but had a better week)
2. Way (Have not seen them play this year but saw them a bunch last year)
3. HM or Tonka (Who ever wins tonight)
4. HM or Tonka (who ever lost tonight)
5. Edina (Big wins but inconsistant)
6. BSM (Not sure about this team)

A slight problem: BSM beat both your Nos. 3 and 4 and the only game they lost was to your No. 1.

[The Greatness]

I have seen most of the top metro teams and feel like I have a pretty good idea of those teams. Unfamiliar with out state teams but ill give my rankings.

1. EP (Equal with Way but had a better week)
2. Way (Have not seen them play this year but saw them a bunch last year)
3. HM or Tonka (Who ever wins tonight)
4. HM or Tonka (who ever lost tonight)
5. Edina (Big wins but inconsistant)
6. BSM (Not sure about this team)

ya cant just put bsm down like that because they lost to ep 8-5. they beat tonka, and they beat hill, and that game could have had a lot more bsm goals.
Ep
Zata
Edina
BSM
whoever after that. cant put hill and tonka in front

[SoftMitts]

Im not sold on BSM. Yes they have beaten hill and tonka but if you stay out of the box against them they are very beatable. Their PP is potent but it drops off after that.

[HShockeywatcher]

Im not sold on BSM. Yes they have beaten hill and tonka but if you stay out of the box against them they are very beatable. Their PP is potent but it drops off after that.

I never like "but if..." statements when rankings, which is what makes things difficult. You can always say "if this didn't happen, things would've been different", but the fact is, it did happen. But since you brought it up:

In the Hill/Benilde game, both teams had 5 power plays, both teams had 1 PPGs. Benilde won 3-1.

In the Tonka/Benilde game, Tonka had 6 power plays and 1 PPG, Benilde had 5 power plays and 0 PPGs.

In the MG/Benilde game, MG had 2 power plays and 1 PPGs, Benilde had 3 power plays and 0 PPGs.

So, in all three "quality opponent" games Benilde lost, their time spent in the box was overall equal to their opponents and never more than more time in the box more than their opponent and scored equal or less PPGs than their opponent. Take away the PPGs they scored and they still win all of these games.

Additionally, in the EP/Benilde game, Eden Prairie had 4 power plays to Benilde's 5 with each team having 2 PPGs.

So you may not be sold on the Red Knights, but unless there's something you've seen while watching them play, power plays are not the reason they are winning those games.

So, if you are sold on EP at #1, and don't like putting Eagan close because of their loss to Lakeville North, then Benilde has a good shot at #2.

Also, Grand Rapids' only loss is to Eden Prairie, with a win over Edina and tying that team Eagan lost to. So, how bout:
1. EP
2. Benilde
3. Grand Rapids
4. Edina
5. Eagan

I am not in love with any one team, but (and I have issues in my rankings with this) I have issue with saying one team is way high (EP is #1) but that a team that beat them is really bad (in this case Eagan).

If it hadn't been for SoftMitts, I wouldn't have looked all of this up, but I'm fine with my top 4. The problem Rapids has is that in their remaining 13 games, they play all of 4 AA teams (East, Cloquet, Bemidji, and Moorhead). Say they win out and make it to state, how do you rank their schedule compared to some of the top 2AA, 6AA, 5AA, 3AA, 4AA teams? Tough to say

[northwoods oldtimer]

Say they win out and make it to state, how do you rank their schedule compared to some of the top 2AA, 6AA, 5AA, 3AA, 4AA teams? Tough to say

Hill's (4AA) conference schedule is not real strong either and that did not effect Hill getting a seed in the State Tournament. Time to eliminate the conferences, they are no longer valid with the 2 class split up north here and in a number of the metro conferences.

[HShockeywatcher]

Say they win out and make it to state, how do you rank their schedule compared to some of the top 2AA, 6AA, 5AA, 3AA, 4AA teams? Tough to say

Hill's (4AA) conference schedule is not real strong either and that did not effect Hill getting a seed in the State Tournament. Time to eliminate the conferences, they are no longer valid with the 2 class split up north here and in a number of the metro conferences.

I wouldn't disagree with a different conference for some team in hockey, like in the NCAA in both DI and DIII. But to say they aren't valid is a bit of a stretch; that is a school's decision.

Additionally, while the 5 schools in their conference are Class A schools (since they opt up) they don't even play one of them, play 3 twice and play 1 once, which shows they have control over who they play. Also, that's only 7 of their games. They choose to play powerful non-conference Class A schools like Hermantown, Duluth Marshall, Warroad, etc. They could easily get more AA schools on their schedule if they wanted. Conference play is not to blame.

Whatever you blame, it comes back to the fundamental issue with ranking; are you ranking the team or the schedule?

[HockeyMN1]

It seems to me that nobody thinks Benilde is actually that good (as in top 2 or 3 material), myself included. Does anyone believe that they have a prayer in hell of getting out of 6AA?