St Thomas (3-1) vs Minnetonka (4-2-1) 12-29-10 12pm

[HShockeywatcher]

Minnetonka has been the winner of the Gold Division of Schwan's Cup 2 of the last 3 years. Seeing them in the consolation bracket would be a surprise.

With the previous match up, Minnetonka takes the head to head record to 5-2-1.

The winner of this game will either play WBL or Blaine.

[Factsmatter1]

I like St. Thomas by a goal in this one. I think the Cretin win was a good one as was the Marshall win. Other competiton was very weak. The only game I have seen this season was the Tonka game on our STA home ice. Tommies have a more experienced line up than Tonka back at D-core. I give STA the advantage on D. The one game I saw

This season Tonka seems to be in every game and often ahead but struggled to hold the lead against better teams (Benilde and Blaine).... must be the growing pains of a very inexperienced D-core (I think Tonka lost their starting 4 D from last year to graduation). I would give the advantage of offense to Tonka but only slightly.

I think the goalie situation will be interesting for STA. I thought he looked a little shakey at the beginning of the first game but looked better towards the end. Tonka goalie looked solid.

In the last game: A couple of the Tonka goals were questionable. Shots were even and both teams racked up 5-6 penalties. STA scored on 2 of 5 PP and Tonka scored on 1 of 6 PP.

Should be one of the best Schwan Cup match ups this year with the other being in the other bracket of the Gold division.

Should be fun... wish I could be there.

[HShockeywatcher]

Should be fun... wish I could be there.

I thought www.myFOXhockey.com was covering it, but apparently not.

Is anyone?

[wblhcky24]

Should be fun... wish I could be there.

I thought www.myFOXhockey.com was covering it, but apparently not.

Is anyone?[/quote
cant u watch it on the schwan cup website? not sure though

[nikebauer05]

Keep in mind that the matchup earlier this year didn't feature Derek Frawley for Tonka. I'm not saying that he would've made that game a blowout but he is a key player for Minnetonka and makes a difference in just about every game.

[wblhockeyfan8]

Tonka 4-2!

[blueblood]

Frawley has had little to no effect this season. In his last 4 games his stats per the Hub are:

vs. Roseau - 0 points and even
vs. BSM - 1 assist and a -2
vs. Stilly - 1 assist and a -2
vs. Blaine - 2 assists and even

Total of 4 assists and is -4 in the 4 games. What game are you watchin' NikeBauerdude? Those are not the stats of a consesus Metro Top 20 player.....

[nikebauer05]

Frawley has had little to no effect this season. In his last 4 games his stats per the Hub are:

vs. Roseau - 0 points and even
vs. BSM - 1 assist and a -2
vs. Stilly - 1 assist and a -2
vs. Blaine - 2 assists and even

Total of 4 assists and is -4 in the 4 games. What game are you watchin' NikeBauerdude? Those are not the stats of a consesus Metro Top 20 player.....

All I'm saying is that he is an elite player who can make a difference in a game. I assume you're not saying that he hurts the team, what I'm saying is that the team didn't have him in the last game against STA and that they are better off with him on the ice.

[blueblood]

If being -4 is better off having him, then Tonka is in for a long season...

[nikebauer05]

If being -4 is better off having him, then Tonka is in for a long season...

Wow, so you are saying that he is hurting the team.
I don't know how you can say that a player of that caliber could hurt a team, also that it is coming from you being blueblood

[Factsmatter1]

Frawley has had little to no effect this season. In his last 4 games his stats per the Hub are:

vs. Roseau - 0 points and even
vs. BSM - 1 assist and a -2
vs. Stilly - 1 assist and a -2
vs. Blaine - 2 assists and even

Total of 4 assists and is -4 in the 4 games. What game are you watchin' NikeBauerdude? Those are not the stats of a consesus Metro Top 20 player.....

BB: hmmm..... assuming you were right I could not understand why I, a loyal STA homer, had this feeling that I wish Tonka was without Frawley for the upcoming Schwan Tourney game on Wed. If he as you say has had "little to no effect" then my feeling must be wrong... I checked ALL the stats on MNHUB to find out the scoop on him and here is what I found:

vs Hibbing (3-2)W - 2 assists and 1 goal (game winning goal)
vs Roseau - didn't skate in 3rd period (Star Trib)
vs STA/Chaska - missed both games
vs Benilde (3-2)L - 1 assist
vs Stillwater (2-1)L - 1 assist
vs Blaine (3-3)T - 2 assists

In summary if you count the 5 full games he played in, Tonka scored 9 goals and he factored in 7 of them including a game winning goal... read it again BB 7 of 9... Now I'm no Don Cherry but that sure is heck isn't "little to no effect". I do think you should expect him to do this because he is a top 20 metro player... I think you owe NikeBauer a huge apology... Because he and I want to know what game you are watching...

I think I am going to go with my "feeling" rather than your "half" of the story. The irony is that I am just pointing out the facts for your team. You seem to have an axe to grind with Tonka/Frawley as is seems to show up bright red in your posts lately.

BB - for Wednesday's game against my Tommies I hope you are right for a change...

[HShockeywatcher]

BB - for Wednesday's game against my Tommies I hope you are right for a change...

"you're not tommies...you're not tommies" I love that one; especially humorous coming from Raiders

I hope he is as well. I would love to see a STA/Breck or STA/Hill final.

It would be great to be able to watch this game.

[nikebauer05]

Haha, thanks Factsmaster for backing me up with those FACTS. Now I know know that I should look up stats on my own to make sure they are correct and not misinterpreted. Blueblood, now are you still standing your ground about Minnetonka being "better off without him"?

[High Flyer]

Should be fun... wish I could be there.

I thought www.myFOXhockey.com was covering it, but apparently not.

Is anyone?[/quote
cant u watch it on the schwan cup website? not sure though

Schwan Cup webcast and broadcast schedule
NSCgamecast.tv, the National Sports Center’s in-house webcasting service, will also provide live Internet broadcasts of the following Schwan Cup games:

» Monday, December 27: all girls’ blue and red division quarterfinals from the Schwan Super Rink.
» Tuesday, December 28: all girls’ blue and red division games (semifinals and consolation bracket games) from the Schwan Super Rink.
» Wednesday, December 29: boys’ gold division quarterfinals from Mariucci Arena, plus all girls’ championship games from Ridder Arena.
» Thursday, December 30: all boys’ gold division games (semifinals and consolation bracket games) from the Xcel Energy Center.
» Saturday, January 1: all boys’ championship games from the Xcel Energy Center.

To view a game, go to http://www.nscgamecast.tv/.

[blueblood]

Let's look at my posts and some more facts":

1. FM- I did state state "the last four games" in my original post.

2. NB - I did say he was a consesus top 20 player in the Metro

3. FM - He may have been on the ice for 7 of 9 goals, I will admit that's a postive. But when your -4 during the 4 games I referenced; that's not a positive. Being negative in +/- stats means that in 5v5 situations, you are on the ice when the opponent is scoring more than your team.

4. NB - I never said "Better off without him".

5. FM - Who says Tonka is my team.....

These are the facts and I'm sticking too them.

[High Flyer]

If being -4 is better off having him, then Tonka is in for a long season...

+/- stat is not always a good indicator as to the value or impact that a particular player has on a team, especially in high school hockey, because there is wide range of talent and sometime they are on the ice at the same time.

Often coaches "balance out lines", especially with their defensemen. Sometimes the two best defensemen are split up and paired up with weaker partners. Sometimes they are paired together, but matched up with the weaker lines, leaving the weaker defensive pair to match up the stronger forward line. Sometimes a team has 4 good forwards, but they are split up equally onto two different lines with the 5 & 6 forwarded be added to each line

Sometimes in a forward line match up where the coach is trying to match up 1's vs. 1's and sometimes he is trying to get his 1's vs. the other teams 2's & 3's.

You just can't look at the +/- stat and you need to look closely as to why a minus happened. It may have absolutely nothing to do with what that player did on the ice on a particular shift, but he still gets a minus.

[blueblood]

Ok, if +/- is not a good indicator, then let's check out the +/- stats of other players in the metro area, by looking at the top 3 players for the following teams: Hill, BSM, Edina, EP & Wayzata.

At least one of then should be on the negative side, right?

Hill-Murray
Bahe +4
Becker +3
Guentzel +2

BSM
Daly +19
Steinhauser +13
Horn +13

Edina
Sit +4
Walker +3
Fogarty +3

EP
Gerdes +8
Rath +7
Rau +5

Wayzata
Klein +15
Cameranesi +14
Lucia +14

Hmmm, no -'s for any of these guys? I wonder why? Factsmatter, any opinions related to these stats? How about you NikeBauer5?

P.S. I also looked at St. Thomas, Apple Valley, Eagan and Burnsville. Guess what,, I observed the same thing, no minuses....

[Factsmatter1]

Ok, if +/- is not a good indicator, then let's check out the +/- stats of other players in the metro area, by looking at the top 3 players for the following teams: Hill, BSM, Edina, EP & Wayzata.

At least one of then should be on the negative side, right?

Hill-Murray
Bahe +4
Becker +3
Guentzel +2

BSM
Daly +19
Steinhauser +13
Horn +13

Edina
Sit +4
Walker +3
Fogarty +3

EP
Gerdes +8
Rath +7
Rau +5

Wayzata
Klein +15
Cameranesi +14
Lucia +14

Hmmm, no -'s for any of these guys? I wonder why? Factsmatter, any opinions related to these stats? How about you NikeBauer5?

P.S. I also looked at St. Thomas, Apple Valley, Eagan and Burnsville. Guess what,, I observed the same thing, no minuses....

BB - Don't give up your day job. HF nailed it yet you continue to absurdly and selectively focus on (+/-) as if it were the only metric in high school hockey when in fact it is a poor one for reasons HF points out. Go look at his last year +/- as support for HF's argument. It was top on the team and probably close to top in the state. Your comparative methodology is so flawed I don't know where to start and therefore won't. The bottom line is you are dead wrong, every knows it and no one is buying your anlalysis or conclusion that the kid had "little to no effect" when he factored in 7 of 9 goals in the 4 games he played in. At least have the intellectual integrity to admit it rather than continue to expose yourself as a mud slinger.

You provide a classic example of selective reasoning or backwards analysis where you make an assertion, run around and selectively find facts to support your assertion and then claim it as a logical conclusion.

Every time you come on this Board and make a derogatory assertion backed up by a weak analysis about any kid like you did here - HF, NB and a host of others including myself will expose you and your fuzzy math.... particularly when it smells more personal and emotional than factual as it does here...

With that said I still hope STA takes Tonka down...

[HShockeywatcher]

I wouldn't go as far as to say he is dead wrong, but he is doing what is quite fun, it's called "lying with statistics." I do it often in analysis if one team's home record against a team is good but the overall record isn't, for example. You can do it easily with game stats to support what you are trying to say. Often why two people can use the same stats in a discussion when taking different sides.

What I see, though, factsmatter, by looking at posts from all three of you is that this player was his normal good self in the first two games of the season, was out for two games (don't know the circumstances nor is it something that should be discussed), and since returning has not been his normal self and has been playing sub-standard.

While I agree there are definitely other things to determine skill, I would say that dismissing +/- is quite silly. It is (generally) a great factor in quality players. Quality players with a low + or in the - are not common.

Did something happen since the 2nd game? Maybe. Does missing time affect your play? Obviously. Is 4 games a big enough sample to really determine anything? No.

All I can say is, hopefully he was negatively affected someway, is on the ice a lot of Wednesday and gets whatever it is figured out for Thursday

[Factsmatter1]

I wouldn't go as far as to say he is dead wrong, but he is doing what is quite fun, it's called "lying with statistics." I do it often in analysis if one team's home record against a team is good but the overall record isn't, for example. You can do it easily with game stats to support what you are trying to say. Often why two people can use the same stats in a discussion when taking different sides.

What I see, though, factsmatter, by looking at posts from all three of you is that this player was his normal good self in the first two games of the season, was out for two games (don't know the circumstances nor is it something that should be discussed), and since returning has not been his normal self and has been playing sub-standard.

While I agree there are definitely other things to determine skill, I would say that dismissing +/- is quite silly. It is (generally) a great factor in quality players. Quality players with a low + or in the - are not common.

Did something happen since the 2nd game? Maybe. Does missing time affect your play? Obviously. Is 4 games a big enough sample to really determine anything? No.

All I can say is, hopefully he was negatively affected someway, is on the ice a lot of Wednesday and gets whatever it is figured out for Thursday

HW - other than trying to agree with both posters I am not sure what your point is. No one is dismissing that +/- is a good stat for pro's/college with a well balanced team (particularly good stat for defensemen) but it is pretty poor in this case and in general high school hockey - the only point NB and I are making. Inter and Intra team skill disparity is a huge factor in MN high school hockey. For example if a team has a losing record chances are even the best players are all going to have negative +/=. This is the flaw in BB argument. He is trying to disparage a kid because the team is struggling. Remember it is a team sport...

On your other point - you seem to imply that BB's assertion is correct - that the kid had "little to no effect".... or that his performanc changed dramatically pre/post absence... If so - again, he factored in 7 of 9 goals or in your frame... 3 of 3 pre-absence and then 4 out of 6 post absence. Is this as you put it "substandard" or not his "normal self"? If so, where is your support for this or what is your yardstick for "standard performance"? If that is "substandard or "little to no effect" performance then who in the state is performing....? Think about it....

Here's my simple conclusion... Tonka appeaerd to play easier schedule the first 4 games and harder since his return. not that complicated... Not sure how you can conclude much else but would love to hear a well supported argument...

Actually, I would prefer to get back to the original post before BB took this off track and the rest of us happily joined him...

The only game I have seen this year was the first Tonka - STA game. I thought STA was much stronger on D than Tonka which we know is working out some kinks. I thought the Tonka forecheck was extremely effective though which helped them in the early go. Also, STA was in the box a lot in the early going and lost their mojo becuase of it. They got it back in the 3rd and I thought took it to Tonka. I think if STA stays out of the box I think they will have their way with Tonka but that is only my opinion... Also, if the refs bring the right contact lens's we might have a chance...

Looks like I can get the game online now thanks to a previous poster. Excited to watch while I dig out from the snow we got out here this past WE...

[High Flyer]

Ok, if +/- is not a good indicator, then let's check out the +/- stats of other players in the metro area, by looking at the top 3 players for the following teams: Hill, BSM, Edina, EP & Wayzata.

At least one of then should be on the negative side, right?

Hill-Murray
Bahe +4
Becker +3
Guentzel +2

BSM
Daly +19
Steinhauser +13
Horn +13

Edina
Sit +4
Walker +3
Fogarty +3

EP
Gerdes +8
Rath +7
Rau +5

Wayzata
Klein +15
Cameranesi +14
Lucia +14

Hmmm, no -'s for any of these guys? I wonder why? Factsmatter, any opinions related to these stats? How about you NikeBauer5?

P.S. I also looked at St. Thomas, Apple Valley, Eagan and Burnsville. Guess what,, I observed the same thing, no minuses....

As I said before, you can't just look at a players +/- stat to determine a players value to a team. There are so many factors that go into +/- and I just don't have the time or energy to explain.

There are 5 players on the ice and many times a minus is a result of just 1 player making a mistake. yet the other 4 get a minus also. A soft goal against, all 5 get a minus. , Soft goal the other way, everyone gets a plus.

I've watched games where players finished with a +3, but never even touched the puck during any of those goals. Samething, but a -3, yet they did everything right. I've seen players dominate in the offensive zone creating several scoring chances, totally controlling the game, but not get a point. I've seen players defensivly match up vs. other teams best line who score an average of 3 goals a game and shut them down, except for the fluke goal that deflected off a skate to finish a minus 1.

To make matter worse, you are now trying to compare stats of players from different teams to make your point. I would say that if all things where equal, same schedule, same goalies in net each game, same type of systems/philosphy and they have played 25 plus games, then maybe you could make a comparison. But they are not equal, so you can't compare.

+/- just don't tell you "who" and "why", but there are a good indicator for a coach to go back and look at a game tape to see if there is something there that needs to be addressed.