NCAA Hockey Polls

[MNHockey75]

Pairwise 3/9

1. Denver
2. Miami
3. Wisconsin
4. Boston College
5. North Dakota
6. Bemidji State
7. St. Cloud State
8. Alaska
9. Yale
10. New Hampshire
11. Cornell
12. Michigan State
13. Ferris State
14. Northern Michigan
15. Minnesota-Duluth
---- RIT

16. Nebraska-Omaha
21. Colorado College
23. Minnesota

First Round WCHA Match-ups:
1) Denver vs. 10) Michigan Tech
2) Wisconsin vs. 9) Alaska-Anchorage
3) St. Cloud State vs. 8.) Minnesota State
4) North Dakota vs. 7) Minnesota
5) Minnesota-Duluth vs. 6) Colorado College

[gorilla1]

HSHW, just an FYI, the INCH college rankings came out and the U are not ranked again.Wisconsin did not drop in the polls either. They are still #23 in pairwise. What gives?

[HShockeywatcher]

HSHW, just an FYI, the INCH college rankings came out and the U are not ranked again.Wisconsin did not drop in the polls either. They are still #23 in pairwise. What gives?

This is my point exactly. #3 beats #28 (I think) 3-2 then the next night #28 beats #3 6-1. #3 stays at #3 and #28 moves down to #31.

You are really going to tell me there's no bias in there.

You can come up with any analogy you want to high school hockey and a team playing the schedule they play and doing what they did would be ranked.
Going off PS2, that is like Wayzata playing Maple Grove two days in a row. I would say Wayzata winning by 1 would make them drop in itself, but then beating beat the next day by a 5 goal margin would not only make Wayzata take a hit but Maple Grove should be rewarded.

They have the nation's 6th toughest schedule and are .500 with it. There is way too much emphasis on winning and not enough on who you play.

Look around at the teams ahead of them, their SOS and who they play.

Bemigji state is ranked #8 in the polls and #6 in RPI. They have played 3 "quality" games all year. In those games they beat Miami by 1, UMD in OT and UMD by 3. While that shows they can play, they have 8 losses on the season, one to the Gophers and 7 to unranked opponents. Their best loss is the U and the U's best loss is MSU, including a head to head win. Hmmm.

The RPI and pairwise are a computer based system; I don't totally agree with the system, but it isn't terrible. But the polls are what I have an issue with. Many of your posts affirm the issue.

[mulefarm]

We've come along way when a gopher fan has to pick on the Beavers. The last 2 years the Beavers were a better team. It's always easier to cut down a program, than to admit your own short comings! Hopefully they will get to play here for the regionals!

[no97]

KRACH - a generaly accepted "better" computer ranking system for college hockey (BTW, it stands for Ken's Raitings for American College Hockey), and uses the Bradley-Terry method), has the Gophs at #16 - which would still be outside the Tourney (with the Atlantic Hockey Auto Qualifier getting that spot), and Bemidji at #7. That make you any happier?

KRACH Rankings:
1 Denver 514.5
2 Miami 472.3
3 Wisconsin 392.0
4 North Dakota 312.3
5 St. Cloud State 292.6
6 Boston College 262.2
7 Bemidji State 235.4
8 Alaska 218.8
9 Minnesota-Duluth 217.3
10 New Hampshire 214.8
11 Colorado College 214.1
12 Michigan State 201.6
13 Yale 197.1
14 Northern Michigan 195.7
15 Ferris State 195.3
16 Minnesota 193.8

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/?data=krach

Why it's better:

http://www.uscho.com/FAQs/?data=krach

[no97]

The RPI and pairwise are a computer based system; I don't totally agree with the system, but it isn't terrible. But the polls are what I have an issue with. Many of your posts affirm the issue.

And, BTW, who cares about poles? Seriously? They are a popularity contest. Only a Gopher fan would care that their team isn't "getting any love." Would you be happy at the end of the season if the Gophs were #1 in a media poll (because that's all it is) and team X had a National Championsip trophy? Heck, start a blog and conduct a "poll" with your friends, and you can "vote" the Gophers #1 all season long! They can go 0-34 and still be #1 in your mind because they "almost" beat Denver. Isn't that what it's all about anyway? Rewarding kids for trying? Almost beating a team moves them up (if it's a tough game)? Good lord!

[no97]

Bemigji state is ranked #8 in the polls and #6 in RPI. They have played 3 "quality" games all year. In those games they beat Miami by 1, UMD in OT and UMD by 3. While that shows they can play, they have 8 losses on the season, one to the Gophers and 7 to unranked opponents. Their best loss is the U and the U's best loss is MSU, including a head to head win. Hmmm.

And, to further prove you don't know what you're talking about - BSU is 6-2-1 vs. TUC. That's team's under consideration (the top 25 in RPI). They went 1-0-1 vs. NMU (16 RPI), 1-1 vs. UMinn (21), 1-0 vs. Miami (2), 2-0 vs. UMD (13), and 1-1 vs. Nebraska-Omaha (17).

Gorilla1 noted that the loss to NMU was a bad one for the Gophers, but maybe paying attention to teams outside the WCHA would be a good idea, and realize that that team has been thisclose to an NCAA birth the last several years, and is currently in position to make the tourney this year (14 PWR), depending on what happens in their CCHA play-off series vs. Alaska this weekend. Now, if the Gophs wanted to make the Tourney themselvs, yes, they sholud have beaten NMU, but it wasn't a bad loss.

I guess I shouldn't expect a ton of college hockey knowledge on a high school message board...

[HShockeywatcher]

The RPI and pairwise are a computer based system; I don't totally agree with the system, but it isn't terrible. But the polls are what I have an issue with. Many of your posts affirm the issue.

And, BTW, who cares about poles? Seriously? They are a popularity contest. Only a Gopher fan would care that their team isn't "getting any love." Would you be happy at the end of the season if the Gophs were #1 in a media poll (because that's all it is) and team X had a National Championsip trophy? Heck, start a blog and conduct a "poll" with your friends, and you can "vote" the Gophers #1 all season long! They can go 0-34 and still be #1 in your mind because they "almost" beat Denver. Isn't that what it's all about anyway? Rewarding kids for trying? Almost beating a team moves them up (if it's a tough game)? Good lord!

Plain and simple, the reason I started this thread was to ask how it worked. I sort of got that answer; it is completely an opinion poll. Furthermore I got to see that so many people value winning so much more over who you play.

And, to further prove you don't know what you're talking about - BSU is 6-2-1 vs. TUC. That's team's under consideration (the top 25 in RPI). They went 1-0-1 vs. NMU (16 RPI), 1-1 vs. UMinn (21), 1-0 vs. Miami (2), 2-0 vs. UMD (13), and 1-1 vs. Nebraska-Omaha (17).

Gorilla1 noted that the loss to NMU was a bad one for the Gophers, but maybe paying attention to teams outside the WCHA would be a good idea, and realize that that team has been thisclose to an NCAA birth the last several years, and is currently in position to make the tourney this year (14 PWR), depending on what happens in their CCHA play-off series vs. Alaska this weekend. Now, if the Gophs wanted to make the Tourney themselvs, yes, they sholud have beaten NMU, but it wasn't a bad loss.

I guess I shouldn't expect a ton of college hockey knowledge on a high school message board...

Sorry, I didn't have time to go through and double check all of their opponents with a ranking system. I just looked at the schedule and commented on the three games that popped out because they listed the opponent as ranked.

It was one example. The Gophers go 1-1 with a lot of good teams, swept one, have a couple bad losses and they aren't ranked while the teams they are beating are staying high. It simply doesn't make sense.

The system is flawed; you play a good schedule and get penalized for losing to the good teams while other teams play a cake schedule and get rewarded for winning easy games. No reason to beat it to death.

[MNHockey75]

Here's why Minnesota is tied for 23rd in the Pairwise. Courtesy of USCHO.com.

"Pairwise Rankings Explanation
The PairWise Rankings (PWR) are a statistical tool designed to approximate the process by which the NCAA selection committee decides which 16 teams to invite to the Division I championship tournament. Although the PWR does not precisely duplicate the method used by the committee, the PWR has exactly predicted the NCAA tournament entries in each of the last eight years. (The difference in the process is that the NCAA committee doesn't actually take the final step of totaling the comparison wins, and summarizing it into a neat PWR chart. See the Selection FAQ for more details.)

Every team in the top 25 of the RPI (Rating Percentage Index) is called a "team under consideration," or TUC. The PWR method compares every TUC with every other such team, with the winner of each "comparison" earning one PWR point. After all possible comparisons are made, the points are totaled up and rankings listed accordingly.

With 25 TUCs, the greatest number of PWR points any one team could earn would be 24, by winning the comparison with each of the other 24 teams. Meanwhile, a team which lost all of its comparisons would, of course, have no PWR points.

Teams are then ranked by PWR point total, with ties broken by looking at the Rating Percentage Index (RPI). Note: this tiebreaking procedure is used solely for convenience in displaying the PWR, and will not necessarily match the committee's process. This is especially true near the end of the top 16, where the committee looks more closely at head-to-head comparisons when selecting the last few teams.

However, the committee does indeed use RPI to break ties within those head-to-head matchups. For example, if that head-to-head comparison is tied, or if there is a transitive tie in a three-way comparison (A defeats B, B defeats C, C defeats A), then RPI is indeed used to break the deadlock.

So how are teams compared? The PWR uses four criteria which are combined to make a comparison: RPI rating, record against TUCs, record against common opponents and head-to-head competition. Note that for 2006-07, TUC record only counts if both teams in the comparison have played at least 10 such games.

For an example, let's consider a hypothetical comparison between Michigan and Michigan State which might look like this:

Michigan vs Michigan State
RPI 0.5891 0 0.5933 1
TUC 8- 4- 1 0 8- 1- 1 1
h1H 0 2
COP 16- 1- 1 1 12- 2- 2 0
============================================
PTS 1 4
Michigan State has the higher RPI, and the Spartans also have the better winning percentage against other TUCs (8-1-1, .850 vs. Michigan's 8-4-1, .631). Against common opponents — teams both schools have played this season — Michigan has the edge (16-1-1, .909 vs. Michigan State's 12-2-2, .813).

Each of the above is worth one point, so Michigan State leads Michigan 2-1 in these four criteria. (Note: ties within each criteria are not broken.) Lastly, we throw in head-to-head competition, for which one comparison point is awarded for each win. Since Michigan and Michigan State have played two games this year and the Spartans have won both of them, Michigan State gets two more comparison points and the Wolverines get none.

Thus, Michigan State wins this comparison by the score of 4-1, and gets one PWR point. Notice that the final score of the comparison itself doesn't matter — Michigan State only gets one PWR point no matter what the score of the comparison itself is. If the overall comparison were tied, the team with the better RPI would receive the PWR point."

[gorilla1]

HSHW, the non-conference games didn't help the Gophers this year. they don't get anywhere beating Harvard twice or Bowling Green. The lost to Northern Michigan (which by the way, was a bad loss because they should have won on their home ice against a team that is a TUC). I do agree with you on one thing--the WCHA is the toughest conference year in and year out. The WCHA has 9 out of the top 10 hardest schedules. but you cannot be .500 or below and expect to be ranked anywhere near the top. A 7th place finish in the WCHA is not good enough.

[no97]

HSHW, the non-conference games didn't help the Gophers this year. they don't get anywhere beating Harvard twice or Bowling Green. The lost to Northern Michigan (which by the way, was a bad loss because they should have won on their home ice against a team that is a TUC). I do agree with you on one thing--the WCHA is the toughest conference year in and year out. The WCHA has 9 out of the top 10 hardest schedules. but you cannot be .500 or below and expect to be ranked anywhere near the top. A 7th place finish in the WCHA is not good enough.

7th in the WCHA is "not good enough" only if you're unrealistic about this team. The fact is that they aren't very good. Now, you can argue about why that is (underperform, coach, wrong type players, injuries, etc.), but they just aren't very good.

As to "bad losses," the Gophs don't have any. Read that again. They are a 7th place WCHA team that beat the teams they shold have UAA (except once up there, but most teams split on that brutal road trip - certainly acceptable), Harvard, Bowling Green, Tech, and an ocasional upset here and there. They also lost to the teams a 7th place team "should" have lost to - Denver, 3 to NoDak, 3 to UMD, SCSU, split w/ rival UW (btw, I just named the top-5 in the W, and that gives a record of 4-14 vs. those top-5 Yeah, that's a top-10 team...)

And that includes NMU. NOT A BAD LOSS for a "not very good team." That's what UMinn is. They are, at best, a 25ish (middle of the pack) team in college hockey. Sure, they can beat the Badgers on a given night, but they also can lose to Minnesota State (probibly their "worst" loss).

And here's the bottem line: If you follow college hockey AT ALL (besides just watching the Gophs every Friday or Saturday night), you WILL realize that pairity has come to the sport. The same thing that made Bemidji State make the Frozen Four last year, makes the Gophers average at best. There is an increase in tallent across the board, and fewer places for those kids to go (still only 58 D-I college hockey schools). Add in that facilities (especially in the WCHA) are some of the best in the country, and there is little reason for a kid to pick the Gophers over North Dakota, or UMD or SCSU or Miami (OH), or Notre Dame, or Bemidji State, or Denver or even Quinnipiac. Sure, UMinn has the history and the TV contract, but have you seen some of the buildings that have been put up across the country? Also, at Bemidji, or Northern Michigan, etc. a kid isn't lost in the shuffle of being a "second class" athelete behind football and basketball. They are top-dog at the school.

What I'm saying, is that the day of the Gophers being automatically #1 (or up top just by walking on the ice) are over. Get used to it...

[mulefarm]

BSU upset in CHA tourney. Now what? Are the Beavers in the NCAA? 2 teams from CHA? Who might get left out in pairwise?

[MNHockey75]

After Friday's games:

1. Denver
2. Miami
3. Wisconsin
4. Boston College
5. North Dakota
6. Bemidji State
7. St. Cloud State
8. New Hampshire
9. Yale
10. Cornell
11. Ferris State
12. Alaska
13. Northern Michigan
14. Minnesota-Duluth
--- AHA Tournament Champ
--- CHA Tournament Champ

18. Nebraska-Omaha
22. Colorado College
23. Minnesota

Bemidji State's loss really hurts a lot of teams, including some WCHA clubs.

[ACTUALFORMERPLAYER]

BSU upset in CHA tourney. Now what? Are the Beavers in the NCAA? 2 teams from CHA? Who might get left out in pairwise?

Beavers are still a lock as an at-large.

[gorilla1]

While this isn't going to happen, that conference should not get more than one team this year in the tourney. If that means BS has to stay home, then so be it. This is the NCAA's fault that they allow a conference like that send their tournament conference champion automatically to the NCAA's, but if BS can't beat Niagra, too bad. In fact, BS played what amounts to be the easiest schedule possible. They beat one quality team in Miami, while losing to Mankato State 2X, Minnesota, Ohio State, Niagra, and Robert Morris twice. They also benefit because the TUC part of the Pairwise doesn't apply to them because they have played 10 TUC's. A good team will be left out because of a baaaad conference. Thankfully that conference will be gone next year. BS will finish no better than the middle of the WCHA, at best. BS should stay home.

[MNHockey75]

While this isn't going to happen, that conference should not get more than one team this year in the tourney. If that means BS has to stay home, then so be it. This is the NCAA's fault that they allow a conference like that send their tournament conference champion automatically to the NCAA's, but if BS can't beat Niagra, too bad. In fact, BS played what amounts to be the easiest schedule possible. They beat one quality team in Miami, while losing to Mankato State 2X, Minnesota, Ohio State, Niagra, and Robert Morris twice. They also benefit because the TUC part of the Pairwise doesn't apply to them because they have played 10 TUC's. A good team will be left out because of a baaaad conference. Thankfully that conference will be gone next year. BS will finish no better than the middle of the WCHA, at best. BS should stay home.

It's unfortunate, but Bemidji State has earned a spot. Thankfully, this will never happen again. I just hope a WCHA team (UMD or CC) gets left out because Hunstville or Niagara make it. But if these teams don't wanna be watching the national tournament, than win your games. A lot can still happen. I'm hoping Mankato upsets SCSU and Duluth sweeps CC. Then UMD beats Mankato in the play-in game. If they can sweep CC and beat Mankato, they should be looking pretty good in the Pairwise.

[gorilla1]

You're right MNHock. And it's not Bs fault, its the NCAA's fault. However, I still believe BS is a relatively weak team, but certainly the best by far out of the CHA. There's no way that conference should get two teams coming out--it is an absolute waste of one spot, and one team who should go won't make it. The top 2 #1 seeds are going to have easy first games--with one getting Huntsville and the other getting the Atlantic champion.

[mulefarm]

While this isn't going to happen, that conference should not get more than one team this year in the tourney. If that means BS has to stay home, then so be it. This is the NCAA's fault that they allow a conference like that send their tournament conference champion automatically to the NCAA's, but if BS can't beat Niagra, too bad. In fact, BS played what amounts to be the easiest schedule possible. They beat one quality team in Miami, while losing to Mankato State 2X, Minnesota, Ohio State, Niagra, and Robert Morris twice. They also benefit because the TUC part of the Pairwise doesn't apply to them because they have played 10 TUC's. A good team will be left out because of a baaaad conference. Thankfully that conference will be gone next year. BS will finish no better than the middle of the WCHA, at best. BS should stay home.

Granted their conference isn't that tough, But they split with Mn, Neb-Omaha, tied and beat Northern Mich, swept UMD and beat Miami. They were 6-2-1 against teams in top 25 pairwise. A final four finish last year. So how can you say they sould stay home?

[gorilla1]

It is more of a voice against that conference getting two teams in. That conference isn't just bad--it's terrible. The only real quality win BS has is Miami. Look where the rest of the teams you noted are ranked. BS deserves to be in the tourney from the teams of the CHA, but if it means 2 teams are coming from that conference--I'm sorry, if they can't beat Niagra and then do more than tie a team like Robert Morris, they should not make it.

[wingmaster]

It is more of a voice against that conference getting two teams in. That conference isn't just bad--it's terrible. The only real quality win BS has is Miami. Look where the rest of the teams you noted are ranked. BS deserves to be in the tourney from the teams of the CHA, but if it means 2 teams are coming from that conference--I'm sorry, if they can't beat Niagra and then do more than tie a team like Robert Morris, they should not make it.

you must have graduated from Holy Cross.

[MNHockey75]

Pairwise after this weekend's games:

1. Denver
2. Miami
3. Wisconsin
4. Boston College
5. North Dakota
6. St. Cloud State
7. Bemidji State
8. Ferris State
9. Cornell
10. Yale
11. Minnesota-Duluth
12. Northern Michigan
13. Alaska
14. Vermont
--- Alabama Huntsville (CHA Tournament champ)
--- AHA Tournament champ

WCHA teams eliminated:
Colorado College -- Have a very slim chance if everything goes there way.
Minnesota
Minnesota State
Alaska-Anchorage
Michigan Tech
Nebraska-Omaha (WCHA next season)

#1 seed New Hampshire (HEast) find themselves on the outside looking in. #2 seed Michigan State (CCHA) same story. As of right now I'd guess there are 11 teams who are a lock (including Huntsville). So that means there are 5 spots available (1 of which is the AHA champ). So 4 at-large bids are up for grabs. Here is a list of the team who have a legitimate chance:
Minnesota-Duluth
Northern Michigan
Alaska - eliminated this weekend
Vermont
UNH - eliminated
Michigan
Michigan St - eliminated
Maine
BU
Union

My best guess would be Maine, BU, and Union would probably have to win the conf. tourney. Michigan and Vermont probably need another win or two. UMD and No. Mich. just need 1 more win to lock a seed up. Alaska, UNH, and MSU are all in a tough spot. My guess is that none get in.

Sorry to make this so long, and my guess is no one will read all this but college hockey is a passion of mine. Here is my best stab at the field of 16 in no particular order:
WCHA
Denver
Wisconsin - Tourney champ
North Dakota
St. Cloud State
Minnesota-Duluth
CHA
Bemidji State
Alabama-Huntsville - Tourney champ
CCHA
Miami
Ferris State
Michigan - Tourney champ
Northern Michigan
Hockey East
Boston College - Tourney champ
Vermont
ECAC
Cornell - Tourney champ
Yale
AHA
Air Force, RIT, or Sacred Heart - toss up

[MNHockey75]

Pairwise Rankings heading into the final games of the season:

1. Denver
2. Miami
3. Wisconsin
4. Boston College
5. North Dakota
6. St. Cloud State
7. Bemidji State
8. Cornell
9. Northern Michigan
10. Yale
11. Alaska
12. New Hampshire
13. Ferris State
14. Minnesota-Duluth
--- Alabama-Huntsville
--- RIT or Sacred Heart

15. Union
16. Vermont
17. Maine
19. Michigan

These are the only teams that have a chance to get into the NCAA Tournament. Union, Maine and Michigan all must win their championship games tonight to get in. UMD is in at the moment, but a lot of things must go their way today. UND can get a #1 seed with a win and a BC loss. The top 10 teams are officially in.

Championship games tonight:
#4 North Dakota vs. #3 St. Cloud State - Both teams will be a 1 or 2 seed.
#4 Maine vs. #2 Boston College - BC gets a #1 seed with a win. A must-win for Maine.
#7 Michigan vs. #4 Northern Michigan - A must-win for Michigan. UNM is in, but are looking for a #2 seed.
#3 Union vs. #2 Cornell - Cornell will be a 2 or 3 seed. Union must win.
#2 Sacred Heart vs. #1 RIT - The winner gets a #4 seed.

[MNHockey75]

3rd place games:

Wisconsin 6, Denver 3
Brown 3, St. Lawrence 0
Miami 2, Ferris State 1

Wisconsin, Denver, and Miami will be number 1 seeds.
Ferris State drops to #13 in the Pairwise. They will need some help.

[MNHockey75]

For all you Bulldog fans...
Here's what needs to happen to get into the tourney:
UNM over Michigan
BC over Maine
Cornell over Union
Sacred Heart over RIT

If any of those games don't go that way, season's over.

[MNHockey75]

And here are your 16 teams:

1. Miami
2. Denver
3. Wisconsin
4. Boston College
5. North Dakota
6. St. Cloud State
7. Cornell
8. Bemidji State
9. Yale
10. Northern Michigan
11. New Hampshire
12. Michigan
13. Alaska
14. Vermont
15. RIT
16. Alabama-Huntsville