PREDICTIONS FOR FINAL 16 TEAM! ADVANCED 16

[Saywhat?03]

What are people's predictions for the 16 kids that will make the trip out to new york from the advanced 16's.[/b]

[Murphy]

Where is this "16" skaters coming from? Many rumors are flying about a reduced number of National skaters from Minnesota this year, but Minnesota Hockey's own brochure on their website states:

"National Select 16/17 Camp: The top 20-25 players from the Minnesota Advanced 16/17 Camps are selected to participate in the National Select 16/17 camps operated by USA Hockey. "

[Factsmatter1]

Where is this "16" skaters coming from? Many rumors are flying about a reduced number of National skaters from Minnesota this year, but Minnesota Hockey's own brochure on their website states:

"National Select 16/17 Camp: The top 20-25 players from the Minnesota Advanced 16/17 Camps are selected to participate in the National Select 16/17 camps operated by USA Hockey. "

Just a bad rumor I think. I hope Minnesota Hockey wouldn't change the rules in the middle of the game.

[High Flyer]

Where is this "16" skaters coming from? Many rumors are flying about a reduced number of National skaters from Minnesota this year, but Minnesota Hockey's own brochure on their website states:

"National Select 16/17 Camp: The top 20-25 players from the Minnesota Advanced 16/17 Camps are selected to participate in the National Select 16/17 camps operated by USA Hockey. "

Just a bad rumor I think. I hope Minnesota Hockey wouldn't change the rules in the middle of the game.

Players at the 17 level where in formed directly by a MN hockey official in thier locker room there would be fewer players this year at the 17 level. Don't know about the 16's. Considering the source and context in which it was communicated, would be hard to argue that it is a rumor

[Saywhat?03]

As far as i know this is not a rumor. I heard from one of the dads who has a kid trying out for the team. They were all told that only 16 skaters would be moving on. 9 forwards, 6 defense, and 1 goalie. What if a goalie gets injured during the next level of tryouts??

[Doglover]

When the MN kids get to Rochester they are mixed in with all the kids from all over the US on teams. There will be many other goalies from all over the US. The MN kids don't play as a team there.

I am disappointed to hear that it appears that MN hockey plans to send less kids. Curious if anyone knows if this comes down from USA hockey or if it's a cost issue mandated by MN Hockey? Either way, it's unfortunate since the 16's are a strong group and represent MN well. If it's true (which it appears to be from what I've heard too), less MN kids will get to take advantage of a great opportunity to showcase their talents.

[powerade8]

Here are some kids that may make the team and looked good this past weekend:
Defense: James Cotroneo, Dan Molenaar, Mike Reilly, Max Everson, Taylor Fleming, Kevin Shultze, Andy Weinski, Eric Shurhammer, Matt Vanvorhis.

Forwards: Ben Bahe, Tony Barbato, Max Birkinbine, Judd Peterson, Thomas Shutt, Dan Carlson, Anthony Greco, Austin Nelson, Micheal Sitt, Travis Boyd, Christian Horn, Joesph Labate, Micheal Zajac.

Goalies: Blake Burgau, Alex Glokner, Matt McNelly

[Factsmatter1]

Here are some kids that may make the team and looked good this past weekend:
Defense: James Cotroneo, Dan Molenaar, Mike Reilly, Max Everson, Taylor Fleming, Kevin Shultze, Andy Weinski, Eric Shurhammer, Matt Vanvorhis.

Forwards: Ben Bahe, Tony Barbato, Max Birkinbine, Judd Peterson, Thomas Shutt, Dan Carlson, Anthony Greco, Austin Nelson, Micheal Sitt, Travis Boyd, Christian Horn, Joesph Labate, Micheal Zajac.

Goalies: Blake Burgau, Alex Glokner, Matt McNelly

Sorry but I was not that impressed with the blue team as you seem to be as I don't see it this way at all. They were in my opinion weaker in every category... I would underweight blue forwards (you have 5, I would have 1-2 max) and blue D (you have 3, I would have 1-2 max) and overweight red D a bit more than you (you have 4, I might even go 5) and White forwards (you have 4 I would have 5-6)... but just my 2 cents based on observing a few games. I would be very surprised if you saw more than 3 kids make it from the blue team in total but I am basing only on the games I saw last weekend... I would't be surprised to see the following:

Blue (1F - 2D)
Red (3F - 3D)
White (5F - 1D)

[High Flyer]

Here are some kids that may make the team and looked good this past weekend:
Defense: James Cotroneo, Dan Molenaar, Mike Reilly, Max Everson, Taylor Fleming, Kevin Shultze, Andy Weinski, Eric Shurhammer, Matt Vanvorhis.

Forwards: Ben Bahe, Tony Barbato, Max Birkinbine, Judd Peterson, Thomas Shutt, Dan Carlson, Anthony Greco, Austin Nelson, Micheal Sitt, Travis Boyd, Christian Horn, Joesph Labate, Micheal Zajac.

Goalies: Blake Burgau, Alex Glokner, Matt McNelly

Sorry but I was not that impressed with the blue team as you seem to be as I don't see it this way at all. They were in my opinion weaker in every category... I would underweight blue forwards (you have 5, I would have 1-2 max) and blue D (you have 3, I would have 1-2 max) and overweight red D a bit more than you (you have 4, I might even go 5) and White forwards (you have 4 I would have 5-6)... but just my 2 cents based on observing a few games. I would be very surprised if you saw more than 3 kids make it from the blue team in total but I am basing only on the games I saw last weekend... I would't be surprised to see the following:

Blue (1F - 2D)
Red (3F - 3D)
White (5F - 1D)

I would agree with you on this FM1, as I too don't think anymore than 1D from the blue team, if any at all. I see 2 from white or perhaps even 4 from the red team. You are dead on with the forwards too.

Then again, who played well two weekends ago and who eventually goes to Rochester most likly will end up being two completly different groups of players. Don't you think there is a reason why they are taking so long to announce the final group of players???? The final 54 evaluation is only part of the formula, as the politics are now shaping the final team.

[Doglover]

Facts - My opinion you're a bit too heavy on white forwards. My take:
White 2D 3F
Blue 2D 2F
Red 2D 4F
Powerade - think you may be right on the goalies (and many of your other picks as well).
Definitely making folks wonder why it's taking so long to announce the team. Hope they post it/notify kids this week? Heard the 15's are going to be much quicker.

[letitbe]

Wouldn't Minnesota Hockey want to truly send their best. Are politics really a factor at this point? Who actually decides? Is it true that the kids that were invited to Ann Arbor are automatically chosen in spite of their performance during the Final 54 weekend? Please help me understand the dynamics of the selection process.

[Factsmatter1]

Facts - My opinion you're a bit too heavy on white forwards. My take:
White 2D 3F
Blue 2D 2F
Red 2D 4F
Powerade - think you may be right on the goalies (and many of your other picks as well).
Definitely making folks wonder why it's taking so long to announce the team. Hope they post it/notify kids this week? Heard the 15's are going to be much quicker.

Doglover, I have to respectfully disagree. A strong defense is a very deceptive asset. The result of strong D is that the forwards look good. IMHO the red team's defense was far superior to either Blue or White yet you interpret that as Red had better forwards. In the Red vs. White game the White D couldn't clear the zone. The only reason the game was even was because the White forwards were stronger overall and dominated the offensive zone when it got out of their zone. The Red D cleared the puck relatively easily and the fact that the game score was even points to the fact that the white forwards were stronger overall. They had to be to keep the game even. The Red F weren't bad but White F were better of the two forward groups. Therefore, I think you are:

Light on Red D (above the F54 average)
Heavy on Red F (average for F54)
Light on White F (above average for F54)
Heavy on White D (below average for F54)
Heavy on Blue D and F (Blue D average and Blue F below average)

As to politics, I hope not as I think things have been right on to date, but people will be people. I think everyone witnessed that some of the Ann Arbor kids did not perform well at the Final 54 at both the 16 and the 17 level and don't deserve to be on the final team based on just that weekend. It will be interesting to see whether or not they gave these kids a free pass to Rochester.

[The Exiled One]

As to politics, I hope not as I think things have been right on to date, but people will be people. I think everyone witnessed that some of the Ann Arbor kids did not perform well at the Final 54 at both the 16 and the 17 level and don't deserve to be on the final team based on just that weekend. It will be interesting to see whether or not they gave these kids a free pass to Rochester.

The NTDP Tryout Camp invitees won't automatically advance, but the NTDP commitments will. VanVoorhis, Boyd, and McNeely will definately be at the national Select 16 festival. As for the Select 17 festival, only Forbort qualifies as an automatic advancement. Faulk apparently didn't have to participate in the Final 54 level, but he will be invited to the Select 17 festival.

[Doglover]

Good points Facts and we can agree to disagree on the strength of the white forwards and the red forwards. I thought the white 16 team played very poorly on Sunday in the crossover game from what I heard (did not see the game). Red went undefeated all weekend and I agree the d had a big contribution although still don't think there are more than 2 that played well enough to advance. Can't forget the contribution by the red goalies and McNeely on white either. The whole red team moved the puck well and had lots of help from the second 17 White goalie and defense on Sunday

On white 16 Boyd and Van Vorohis and McNeely should all advance for sure and are Ann Arbor recruits who played well all weekend and deserve to advance. Not sure who you were referring to with your comment? I completely agree with you that hopefully politics will not play into the final selections and really doubt they will. Just curious why it's taking so long to select the 16 and 17 teams? Have to admit I think Ann Arbor scouts did a good job though in their selections as evidenced by the play in Plymouth. I'm sure they've watched these players considerably more than any of us on this board. I also think they are choosing a "team" not just individuals.

[Factsmatter1]

Good points Facts and we can agree to disagree on the strength of the white forwards and the red forwards. I thought the white 16 team played very poorly on Sunday in the crossover game from what I heard (did not see the game). Red went undefeated all weekend and I agree the d had a big contribution although still don't think there are more than 2 that played well enough to advance. Can't forget the contribution by the red goalies and McNeely on white either. The whole red team moved the puck well and had lots of help from the second 17 White goalie and defense on Sunday

On white 16 Boyd and Van Vorohis and McNeely should all advance for sure and are Ann Arbor recruits who played well all weekend and deserve to advance. Not sure who you were referring to with your comment? I completely agree with you that hopefully politics will not play into the final selections and really doubt they will. Just curious why it's taking so long to select the 16 and 17 teams? Have to admit I think Ann Arbor scouts did a good job though in their selections as evidenced by the play in Plymouth. I'm sure they've watched these players considerably more than any of us on this board. I also think they are choosing a "team" not just individuals.

DL,
Agree on the 17's. However, I think White 16 drew the superior 17 team based on what a few parents told me (I think Blue 17 won both games but I could be wrong). The other two 17 teams were dead even. Blue 17 was very strong both upfront and on D and in the net. The story was pretty easy to tell. Weak White 16 D were overpowered by Blue 17 F in the half of the game I saw. Based on the score sounds like it continued. The interesting thing was that it exposed the weakness in the skating speed on the white team. Everyone looked the same until the 17 game where I only saw 2-3 White forwards that could keep up with the Blue team. None of the D could... Both goalies let in 6 or more goals on the white team 16 team but in their defense the White D was a no show.

On the poor Ann Arbor kids showing comment my personal policy is not to mention names unless 10 out of 10 people would agree. I agree that they are probably looking harder than us but let's just say that based on the weekend performance alone I could only make a few distinctions on both the 16 and the 17 level:
(1) there was clearly a top half and a bottom half of both groups. Making this split will be easy.
(2) splitting the top half into (9F,6D,1G - advertised number they are taking) will be tough.
(3) in the top half and exluding 1 kid - I couldn't distinguish those that went to Ann Arbor from those that didn't. In fact I thought a few non Ann Arbor kids performed slightly better than those that went to AA but that's only my opinion. If they are factoring in other things I wouldn't know.
(4) If what is said is true above none of the goalie kids had a chance going in since McNeely is a lock. I would be pretty upset if I was a goalie parent since the number of kids (rumor) being taken changed (from 2 to 1) after the tryouts were completed and everyone knew McNeely was locked.

BTW, I don't think they are picking a team based on what I heard. Again, this could be bogus rumor but I think the kids don't play as a team in Rochester but rather play on different teams. I really don't know for sure but if true this may make a difference in selections as a team would want role players otherwise they may just want top end skill...

[Doglover]

Again excellent points!! Let me clarify my one point - I was referring to Ann Arbor choosing a team for the National Development program recruits - not the Adv. 16 group advancing to National Camp - sorry I was confusing in my post. You're correct - they will be dispersed on different teams in Rochester at National Camp.

Completely agree that if MN Hockey sends less than the number they have in both their video and brochures, parents have a right to be upset - especially the goalies!! If you add up the cost of the section tryout plus the price to participate in Plymouth, it's very unfair for them to reduce the number they are sending in the middle of the process. I'm hoping this is the point that is delaying the final team selection and they will end up sending the number they committed to originally!

I do disagree with you on the Ann Arbor kids though. Clearly stuck out from what I heard and the little I saw of 16/17's - both recruits and commitments - although I was equally impressed by a handful of others.

[Nonamer]

The top priority for Ann Arbor is potential. All players will have good days and bad days - it's potential that floats the AA boat...as they identify it, not us.

[High Flyer]

Well, I would not go so far as to say NTDP got it right (that is another thread and I’m not going there here) and that all the MN 16 NTDP final forty spring tryout invitees did well in the final 54. I also do not agree that the NDTP team members automatically will be invited to the national festival, as they would not have participated in the final 54 tryout if this were the case. I do feel that the three NDTP 17 team members did play well in the final 54 and they should be invited to participate in the national festival based on their performance at the advance 16 final 54.

Perhaps politics was a bad choice of words. I personally think the reason it is taking so long, as they are looking very closely at the players they are considering inviting to the national festival. I think they not only are looking at the final 54 evaluations, but also the spring festival evaluations and even possible the section tryout evaluations. I also think they are looking into how these final 54 candidates’ did during the high school season. I think they are looking for some kind of consistency from each of these areas and some kind of confirmation that says their final 54 evaluation has correctly identified the top MN players.

I do worry about other factures that may be used when they are looking at who to invite, i.e. are we inviting too many kids from the same high school? Do we need a wider representation of the entire state? This is what they did at last years select 15, so it is possible at the 16’s this year.

And what if the finial 54 evaluations and fact finding research “excludes” many of the NDTP final forty spring tryout intities, will they stand firm or will they alter thier final national festival invites to more closely match the NDTP spring tryout list?

[Nonamer]

High Flyer, you sound like a woulda', coulda', shoulda' with a list of maybe's.

Over analyzing these selections is a waste of time. Can't we just wait until the final rosters come out?

Did you catch Dancing With the Stars last night? Just trying to lighten the discussion...

[High Flyer]

High Flyer, you sound like a woulda', coulda', shoulda' with a list of maybe's.

Over analyzing these selections is a waste of time. Can't we just wait until the final rosters come out?

If that the case, then its kind of pointless to have this thread, don't you think? Funny that you feel this way, yet you take the time to read it and post comments....

And since you are not really contributing to thread topic and you think it is a waste of time, why do really care about my opinion? I must of touched a nerve on this thread, or perhaps another??....

[Nonamer]

You know, you're right. A little talk is good for all. In that there are a number of different opportunities for players to demonstrate their skills, I guess my point is that this particular event is duplicated many times over with other events. Is it the "big one"? I don't think so, I think scouts and coaches from wherever, NDTP, colleges, junior, AAA midgets, whatever, know about all players in any case. No matter the outcome of a particular tryout sequence.

To identify the "best" players is highly subjective in nature. Different teams/coaches are looking for different things in prospective players - there are any number of players that can "see the ice", take good shots, and make good passes. Of course the all-world kid is who everybody wants, but beyond that there are so many intangible variables taken into account that to say the final 16's roster is a big deal is a bit presumptuous. Yes, it provides an opportunity for a player to show their stuff, but doesn't junior and high school hockey, and summer league play, among other things like coach recommendations and word of mouth play into the big picture?

It's all part of the big picture. Let's not add any more pressure to the players than they already feel. I say be patient and let things fall where they may. Talk is good - just make sure you leave open the possibility for the intangible elements. Everyone brings different skills to the table, and they're all good. But I guess they do give people something to talk about, if that's your bag.

[Doglover]

Nice post nonamer. You've got great perspective and I don't sense any hidden motives. Thanks for your comments - very refreshing. I hope the list comes out soon and everyone can move on!!

Dancing with the Stars is always full of upsets and surprises

[High Flyer]

You know, you're right. A little talk is good for all. In that there are a number of different opportunities for players to demonstrate their skills, I guess my point is that this particular event is duplicated many times over with other events. Is it the "big one"? I don't think so, I think scouts and coaches from wherever, NDTP, colleges, junior, AAA midgets, whatever, know about all players in any case. No matter the outcome of a particular tryout sequence.

To identify the "best" players is highly subjective in nature. Different teams/coaches are looking for different things in prospective players - there are any number of players that can "see the ice", take good shots, and make good passes. Of course the all-world kid is who everybody wants, but beyond that there are so many intangible variables taken into account that to say the final 16's roster is a big deal is a bit presumptuous. Yes, it provides an opportunity for a player to show their stuff, but doesn't junior and high school hockey, and summer league play, among other things like coach recommendations and word of mouth play into the big picture?

It's all part of the big picture. Let's not add any more pressure to the players than they already feel. I say be patient and let things fall where they may. Talk is good - just make sure you leave open the possibility for the intangible elements. Everyone brings different skills to the table, and they're all good. But I guess they do give people something to talk about, if that's your bag.

Right on!!!

I would add to this is that everyone needs to understand that the talent pool in MN is extremly deep, comparded to the other 11 regions in the USA. While only 15-20 MN players move onto the national festival, the players who do not make it out of the final 54 are as talent, if not more than talented than many of the players from other states who do make it to the national festival. College coaches know this, so do Jr. A coaches and being a MN player in the final 54 carries a lot of equity with them. Theres a reason why so many "head" coaches where at the final 54.

[Hockeywatcher123]

factsmatter1 I disagree with what you said about the blue team. I thought that they had the strongest group of forwards in the festavil. When I watched the blue team play it seemed like they would always control the play then the other team would come down and score on a rush. I could see as many as 5 forwards going from that team

[Factsmatter1]

factsmatter1 I disagree with what you said about the blue team. I thought that they had the strongest group of forwards in the festavil. When I watched the blue team play it seemed like they would always control the play then the other team would come down and score on a rush. I could see as many as 5 forwards going from that team

Sorry HW123, I hear your anecdotal argument but it doesn't line up with the numbers so I am respectfully scratching my head on your claim...:

Goals (in inter Final 16 play):
Red 12
White 11
Blue 4 (at least 2 in shootout mode)

Goals against (in inter Final 16 play):
Red 5
White 8 (2 on Blue shootout)
Blue 14