Most likely first round upset

hotpotato81 · Post by **hotpotato81** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 7:47 pm

Each year, I would guess that we have a better than 50% chance of a first round upset. Of this years first round matchups, who is most likely to pull the upset?

goldy313 · Post by **goldy313** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:01 pm

Lechner over Smith, that's the one coaching mismatch I see, plus Hill is a seasoned team. No one expected thenm to win last year and they did. If Hill can muck it up like they did last year against South and Roseau they can win.

I don't really expect a first round upset but this would be my most likey one of the 4.

winter15 · Post by **winter15** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:08 pm

The main reason hill murray won last year was because of there goalie, any of these teams can run into a hot goalie that can change the outcome of the game

Zamman · Post by **Zamman** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:31 pm

winter15 wrote:The main reason hill murray won last year was because of there goalie, any of these teams can run into a hot goalie that can change the outcome of the game

Disagree.....Hill's goalie was not as good as you saw. They won because the coaching staff is top notch and knew how to get his players to change the style of play to go with the game.

In the Edina/Jefferson game, Lindquist did not make any changes to the way he played his game. The whole game Edina pinched Jefferson to the outside preventing them from moving the puck inside. Jefferson coaches should have seen that in the first period and make a change.

Hill's staff seems to be able to take what they have on the ice and play them to the style of the opposing team. For EP Smith still has to prove he can take his team to a higher level and get past the first round. I agree that the EP/HM game could be an upset.

TF681001 · Post by **TF681001** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 9:32 pm

Hill also had the advantage of playing as the under dog in the semi final and final. When you're the underdog you have nothing to lose, and they gave it their everything and now have a title. I think they also benefited from Roseu expecting to win, after beating they rode the momentum to beat Edina

HockeyMN1 · Post by **HockeyMN1** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 10:43 pm

goldy313 wrote:Lechner over Smith, that's the one coaching mismatch I see, plus Hill is a seasoned team. No one expected thenm to win last year and they did. If Hill can muck it up like they did last year against South and Roseau they can win.

I don't really expect a first round upset but this would be my most likey one of the 4.

What's everyone's problem with Smith? He has a great group of kids, he is a great guy, and he knows hockey and how to coach it. Sure, he has had some tough breaks over the years, but that doesn't make him a bad coach! EP rolls in this one.

breakout · Post by **breakout** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 10:53 pm

Don't kid yourself, Hills goalie was a huge part of their win last year. To state otherwise is ignorant.

Their goalie this year is a huge question mark. Their D is not as good as it was a year ago.

Coaches don't win games, players do.

starmvp · Post by **starmvp** » Wed Mar 11, 2009 11:13 pm

Cretin over Duluth east is the best chance at an upset that I see. If Cretin wins the score will be close.

Lakeviewing · Post by **Lakeviewing** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 12:54 am

HockeyMN1 wrote:
goldy313 wrote:Lechner over Smith, that's the one coaching mismatch I see, plus Hill is a seasoned team. No one expected thenm to win last year and they did. If Hill can muck it up like they did last year against South and Roseau they can win.

I don't really expect a first round upset but this would be my most likey one of the 4.
What's everyone's problem with Smith? He has a great group of kids, he is a great guy, and he knows hockey and how to coach it. Sure, he has had some tough breaks over the years, but that doesn't make him a bad coach! EP rolls in this one.

Lee Smith has to re-assemble and re-organize his team every year. What he has one year to built upon, isn't what he ends up with the next year. Gone- Junior and starting center- Clark at Shattuck, Gone- two starting defensemen in Thompson and Rush- playing in the USHL. Plus lets not forget about who he looses to the private schools- Patterson, Bullock, Miller, Duda's, Hartman. Or maybe some of his senior cuts he had to make to rebuild his team. Most of the juniors that won the Bantam A State are gone. I wonder what this team would be with a Kristo playing his senior season here. He has coached this team to the State without the talent that has left the program. If the kids would stay at home and represent their school, like Leddy did, they probably would be competitive every year for a state title.

MNHockeyDieHard · Post by **MNHockeyDieHard** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 12:59 am

I would have to pick HM over EP because of HM performance last year against big odds and i think these are the two most even teams that play each other.

Gonna be rootin for EP though

PUBLIC SCHOOLS!!!!

goldy313 · Post by **goldy313** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 1:49 am

HockeyMN1 wrote: What's everyone's problem with Smith? He has a great group of kids, he is a great guy, and he knows hockey and how to coach it. Sure, he has had some tough breaks over the years, but that doesn't make him a bad coach! EP rolls in this one.

What's his record in the state tournament? With his only win coming against a hapless Lakeville team, what's Lechners? Smith and Eden Prairie have under acheived at the state tournament level, there is no disputing that. He may be a great guy and a very good coach, I'mnot disputing any of that but his state tournment record and the teams he has brought there haven't done much, unlike Lechner's.

BodyShots · Post by **BodyShots** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 9:05 am

Hill has no chance against EP. They are an average team that barely won an average section.

I don't think their will be an upset in the first round. (Personal opinion is that the first day of the tournament has been ruined with the seeding of the top four teams).

If I had to pick an upset though, I would go with Moorhead. If they can keep it close late in the game, I think Edina will feel enormous pressure and fold. But, like I said earlier, I don't think there will be an upset.

hotpotato81 · Post by **hotpotato81** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 1:29 pm

BodyShots wrote:Hill has no chance against EP. They are an average team that barely won an average section.

Game one finished and no upset.

Since the game went to OT, I really do't think it is accurate to say that Hill Had no chance. I always have to laugh at the predictions of running time and 5 and 6 goal wins at state. In order to advance out of sections, a team has to have some talent.

Although I voted for no upsets today. I do see three more very close games.

BodyShots · Post by **BodyShots** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 8:25 pm

BodyShots wrote:Hill has no chance against EP. They are an average team that barely won an average section.

I don't think their will be an upset in the first round. (Personal opinion is that the first day of the tournament has been ruined with the seeding of the top four teams).

If I had to pick an upset though, I would go with Moorhead. If they can keep it close late in the game, I think Edina will feel enormous pressure and fold. But, like I said earlier, I don't think there will be an upset.

PoNd HocKey ChAmP67 · Post by **PoNd HocKey ChAmP67** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 8:48 pm

Edina losing

hotpotato81 · Post by **hotpotato81** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 9:05 pm

Lee

Too bad you can't lock the voting after the games start. Amazing how many people are picking the Spuds to pull an update now.

When the game started they were the 4th choice after Hill, CDH and no upset this year.

thorhockey · Post by **thorhockey** » Thu Mar 12, 2009 9:16 pm

Looks like another upset in the making Did the Hounds watch the Edina game and get "psyched" ?

HighSchoolHockeyForums.com

Most likely first round upset

First round upset

Most likely first round upset

Smith is not the problem with EP, its the parents