Why a MN Tier I team isn't a given to win at Nationals

[O-townClown]

I figured I'd start a new thread because there have been many recent posts on various threads about how Minnesota teams would compare to elite AAA or Tier I competition.

Here is an example of a recent post:

If the best Minnesota PeeWee players formed a team and played year round together, there is no doubt in my mind that they would the considered one of, if not THE best Tier-I team in the Nation.

Like was said earlier, the Blades (an offseason AAA team) beat the LAS this summer 9-5, and that Blades team isn't made up completely of the best players in the State. Imagine a team made up with the best players from, but not limited to, the Machine, Blades, LSS, and maybe the Icemen...and give them a chance to play together year round and see what happens then.

The problem with this thinking is that you will never have a team "made up completely of the best players in the state." Unless Minnesota Hockey sanctions a state team and those kids commit to a season you'll have something much different.

The LA Selects don't have "the best players in the state" or anything close. 3 of the top 11 teams in the Tier II rankings were from Los Angeles - LA Hockey Club, Santa Clara Blackhawks, and the LA Jr. Kings - plus another is from San Diego. And no, Tier II isn't all kids that have been cut from Tier I like comparing B to A hockey in Minnesota communities.

What will happen if Minnesota Hockey blesses the club model and allows teams to register as Tier I with USA Hockey? You'll have anything but a Minnesota all-star team.

The greatest concentration of superb players is in the Southwest suburbs. Eden Prairie, Wayzata, and Edina alone can field a team capable of winning nationals. At some point you hit diminishing returns, which is why being able to draw from 100 kids at tryouts isn't much different than selecting from 70.

Clubs already exist like the Machine, Blades, and Fire. Will one "superclub" form with players from all over the state? Heck no. Kids outside the Twin Cities at best form a squad around Rochester (for the bottom of the state), St. Cloud (parts NE close to the Cities but not way outstate), Duluth/Range, and that's probably it. There is no limit to the number of Twin City based teams, but the more you have the less likely they're all great.

The Minnesota team that makes it to nationals is unlikely to be much better than the Fire, Blades, or Machine...all of whom are good enough to win. However, one game that goes the wrong way at the wrong time and you don't win it. Even if you say this hypothetical club is way better they could still lose a Pee Wee or Bantam game to Honeybaked, Texas Attack, or the California representative on any given day.

At least one team will probably form because the parents want to play "at the highest level" and they'll take the kids to Chicago, Ontario, and Detroit for a lot of their games. This requires money so you'll have it limited off the bat to a smaller pool than the best players in the whole state.

Don't for one minute think that every top kid in Detroit, Chicago, or Los Angeles plays on the same team. It isn't like that.

[muckandgrind]

I figured I'd start a new thread because there have been many recent posts on various threads about how Minnesota teams would compare to elite AAA or Tier I competition.

Here is an example of a recent post:

If the best Minnesota PeeWee players formed a team and played year round together, there is no doubt in my mind that they would the considered one of, if not THE best Tier-I team in the Nation.

Like was said earlier, the Blades (an offseason AAA team) beat the LAS this summer 9-5, and that Blades team isn't made up completely of the best players in the State. Imagine a team made up with the best players from, but not limited to, the Machine, Blades, LSS, and maybe the Icemen...and give them a chance to play together year round and see what happens then.

The problem with this thinking is that you will never have a team "made up completely of the best players in the state." Unless Minnesota Hockey sanctions a state team and those kids commit to a season you'll have something much different.

The LA Selects don't have "the best players in the state" or anything close. 3 of the top 11 teams in the Tier II rankings were from Los Angeles - LA Hockey Club, Santa Clara Blackhawks, and the LA Jr. Kings - plus another is from San Diego. And no, Tier II isn't all kids that have been cut from Tier I like comparing B to A hockey in Minnesota communities.

What will happen if Minnesota Hockey blesses the club model and allows teams to register as Tier I with USA Hockey? You'll have anything but a Minnesota all-star team.

The greatest concentration of superb players is in the Southwest suburbs. Eden Prairie, Wayzata, and Edina alone can field a team capable of winning nationals. At some point you hit diminishing returns, which is why being able to draw from 100 kids at tryouts isn't much different than selecting from 70.

Clubs already exist like the Machine, Blades, and Fire. Will one "superclub" form with players from all over the state? Heck no. Kids outside the Twin Cities at best form a squad around Rochester (for the bottom of the state), St. Cloud (parts NE close to the Cities but not way outstate), Duluth/Range, and that's probably it. There is no limit to the number of Twin City based teams, but the more you have the less likely they're all great.

The Minnesota team that makes it to nationals is unlikely to be much better than the Fire, Blades, or Machine...all of whom are good enough to win. However, one game that goes the wrong way at the wrong time and you don't win it. Even if you say this hypothetical club is way better they could still lose a Pee Wee or Bantam game to Honeybaked, Texas Attack, or the California representative on any given day.

At least one team will probably form because the parents want to play "at the highest level" and they'll take the kids to Chicago, Ontario, and Detroit for a lot of their games. This requires money so you'll have it limited off the bat to a smaller pool than the best players in the whole state.

Don't for one minute think that every top kid in Detroit, Chicago, or Los Angeles plays on the same team. It isn't like that.

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, and you're right, I was speaking in hypotheticals. My point is that the pool of talented young players in Minnesota is, IMO, deeper than any other state....I think the number of Minnesota kids taken in the NHL draft recently proves that.

My point was that if a team that only gets together and plays in the summer (95 Blades) can go out and beat other national Tier I teams who play together year round. Imagine how could the Blades could be if they were a "real" team that played year round? Now if you took the best players off the Blades, Machine, LSS, and Iceman and formed one team and let them play year round...how good could they be?

Don't be suprised that if in the not-to-distant future it DOES happen. We already have Shattuck, but I wouldn't be suprised at all if McBain starts his own Tier I team...

[O-townClown]

I don't disagree with much of what you're saying, and you're right, I was speaking in hypotheticals. My point is that the pool of talented young players in Minnesota is, IMO, deeper than any other state....I think the number of Minnesota kids taken in the NHL draft recently proves that.

My point was that if a team that only gets together and plays in the summer (95 Blades) can go out and beat other national Tier I teams who play together year round. Imagine how could the Blades could be if they were a "real" team that played year round? Now if you took the best players off the Blades, Machine, LSS, and Iceman and formed one team and let them play year round...how good could they be?

Don't be suprised that if in the not-to-distant future it DOES happen. We already have Shattuck, but I wouldn't be suprised at all if McBain starts his own Tier I team...

Muck, it isn't just your post that caused me to start the thread. Others have posted similar things and someone sent me a PM. Yes, we're all agreed the Blades are real good and could win nationals. Yes, the talent pool in Minnesota is deep. No, that doesn't mean the rest of the country is going to roll over and play dead.

Several posts indicate that "a Minnesota all-star" team will beat the LA Selects. Or maybe they won't. Imagine the frustration on the part of many if Minnesota's representative in the national PW championship doesn't win. Then what. Saying you could form a team that wins nationals and actually doing it are pretty far apart.

To answer the question about how good a team would be if you formed an all-star team from those all-star teams I don't know where to begin. Why stop there? How good would a national team be? Oh wait, USA Hockey actually sends those out at the Junior level.

I'm only trying to point out that many assumptions about what's going to happen if (when?) there are Tier I teams in Minnesota aren't valid.