ODDS Against Winning AA State Tournament

[O-townClown]

2:1 Roseau
5:2 Edina
7:1 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7:1 Hill-Murray
10:1 Blaine
20:1 Woodbury
100:1 Cloquet
1000:1 Lakeville South

[minnesotahockeyfan]

[quote="O-townClown"][b][color=green]2:1 Roseau
5:2 Edina[/color]
[color=red]7:1 Benilde-St. Margaret's[/color]
[color=green]7:1 Hill-Murray[/color]
[color=blue]10:1 Blaine
20:1 Woodbury[/color]
[color=indigo]100:1 Cloquet[/color]
1000:1 Lakeville South[/b][/quote]

some good value on BSM and/or Woodbury

South should have better odds than Cloquet

[iceman7]

what was cloquets record this year?

[hockeywatcher4]

Edina should be at even odds

[PASTRAPIDSFAN]

what was cloquets record this year?

15-11-2

[Lopresti]

Edina should be at even odds

OK, put Edina at EVEN. Then I'll take Roseau at 4:1, will you take that bet?

[SEMinnHockeyNut]

Not that I think LS can beat Hill, then mostly Roseau, etc and win the entire tourney, but how can you justify Cloquet at 100:1 and LS at 1000:1?

If you put Cloquet at 100:1 when they face Edina first, you would probably have to put LS at 250:1 or something more reasonable.

[O-townClown]

Not that I think LS can beat Hill, then mostly Roseau, etc and win the entire tourney, but how can you justify Cloquet at 100:1 and LS at 1000:1?

If you put Cloquet at 100:1 when they face Edina first, you would probably have to put LS at 250:1 or something more reasonable.

Nut, I think it is funny when people focus on the bottom of posted odds. Those teams have next to no chance. When I first posted preseason odds against reaching state someone said Dodge County should be ahead of Winona or Wadena or someone. Could be, but the important part is at the other end. Do the odds accurately reflect the chances of the teams likely to be there.

I was going to put 10,000:1 for Lakeville South, but didn't want to offend. 1,000 or 250...does it matter. No. They won't string together three wins.

Cloquet enters on the heels of quality wins over Duluth East and Anoka. Lakeville South doesn't. Easy as that. I don't think Cloquet will win the crown, but if they did I could look back and say they obviously were playing well in Sections. 100:1 seems fair.

If I were taking bets I'd have to cut the odds in order to make money and I'd list Cloquet at 50 and Lakeville at 75. Anyone wanting to risk a buck would do it at 75 or 1,000 or more. I'd hate to have to pay 1,000 times back if they did in fact pull three miracles.

[formerallstar]

How do you figure these odds???? They are ridiculous

[luckyfan7]

id put BSM up there. i got them winnin the whole thing. they already beat edina and the beat shattucks prep team this year. also its there first time going to state (i believe) and they are always in the mix in sections and there seniors are hungry for this. but it should be a hell of a game with them and edina in the semis

[MNRinkRat]

id put BSM up there. i got them winnin the whole thing. they already beat edina and the beat shattucks prep team this year. also its there first time going to state (i believe) and they are always in the mix in sections and there seniors are hungry for this. but it should be a hell of a game with them and edina in the semis

It's BSM first time to state in AA. They won the single A tourney one year and made it another time as well.

[wingmaster]

I would say they all have a 1 in 8 chance of winning

[O-townClown]

How do you figure these odds???? They are ridiculous

I cannot wait to see your odds when they are posted.

[rochcentury908]

I'll throw in a dollar on Lakeville South. Not because I think they have a chance, but because I'd get a thousand bucks.

"If somebody gives you 10,000 to one odds...on ANYTHING, take it!" -Kevin from The Office.

[goldy313]

How do you figure these odds???? They are ridiculous

It's a joke, like he says if he actually had to pay they'd be different. He also lost all respect and objectivity in posting section odds based on nothing. He posts all sorts of crap bashing South but can barely conatin himself saying how great BSM is; yea beating Irondale, North Metro, and the rest of that conference is impressive.

The past few years two things stand out, the Lake sucks at the state tournament and whomever represents the West metro is about as bad any team from section 1. The last section 6 team to finish in the top 3 was 11 years ago. I'm not sure why the West metro even gets a slot, they might as well give it to a Minneapolis Public school.

[O-townClown]

How do you figure these odds???? They are ridiculous

It's a joke, like he says if he actually had to pay they'd be different. He also lost all respect and objectivity in posting section odds based on nothing. He posts all sorts of crap bashing South but can barely conatin himself saying how great BSM is; yea beating Irondale, North Metro, and the rest of that conference is impressive.

The past few years two things stand out, the Lake sucks at the state tournament and whomever represents the West metro is about as bad any team from section 1. The last section 6 team to finish in the top 3 was 11 years ago. I'm not sure why the West metro even gets a slot, they might as well give it to a Minneapolis Public school.

You, sir, are the joke. Of course someone taking bets bases payouts on less than the true odds. It is the house advantage and necessary for bookmakers. It isn't a non-profit profession.

I don't know how anyone could lose respect or objectivity by posting section odds based on nothing when clearly they were based on many factors. Record, schedule, current form.

There has been no crap posted by me about South. I have, however, analyzed their season. No crap posted. And I never bashed them.

Curious that you interpret anything I've said as being unfairly or unreasonably ebullient toward Benilde. I've mentioned that team very little all season.

Great point about Section 6 representatives at state and how they have either lost the first game or lost the 3rd place game. Interesting.

Can't wait to see your posted odds either.

[DadsMoney]

lay off of OTC you d-bags...

[O-townClown]

How do you figure these odds???? They are ridiculous

I cannot wait to see your odds when they are posted.

Still waiting. Coming up on 48 hours. Goldy too if he wants.

[hockeywatcher4]

How do you figure these odds???? They are ridiculous

I cannot wait to see your odds when they are posted.

Still waiting. Coming up on 48 hours. Goldy too if he wants.

O-town is a stand up guy, and very intelligent these odds are fun to look at. so please lay off him

[The Huge Hook]

How do you figure these odds???? They are ridiculous

It's a joke, like he says if he actually had to pay they'd be different. He also lost all respect and objectivity in posting section odds based on nothing. He posts all sorts of crap bashing South but can barely conatin himself saying how great BSM is; yea beating Irondale, North Metro, and the rest of that conference is impressive.

The past few years two things stand out, the Lake sucks at the state tournament and whomever represents the West metro is about as bad any team from section 1. The last section 6 team to finish in the top 3 was 11 years ago. I'm not sure why the West metro even gets a slot, they might as well give it to a Minneapolis Public school.

ebullient

Stop that, the kid is gonna go nuts trying to figure out why you called him a mean name.

[spin-o-rama]

I would agree with the Roseau and Edina odds if they had the same schedule. With Edina having the easier first round opponent and the earlier games (more rest), I would move them equal in odds to Roseau.

If you were running a book then you could probably get away with even odds for both schools and get lots of action.

[O-townClown]

I would agree with the Roseau and Edina odds if they had the same schedule. With Edina having the easier first round opponent and the earlier games (more rest), I would move them equal in odds to Roseau.

If you were running a book then you could probably get away with even odds for both schools and get lots of action.

Agreed that these would be close to Even.

I tried accounting for the opponents but did not factor in the rest factor. You make a great point. Still, hard for me not to have a team on a 40whatever game roll with an undefeated 'tender that happens to be the defending champ as the odds-on favorite.

I've told several people that you can look forward from Sectionals and say Edina isn't likely to face Roseau in the final since there are so many hurdles to clear, but if they do meet you will look backward and say nobody beat anyone they weren't supposed to.

Remember that Florida repeated as NCAA champs last year. If you're favored in every game and play well it isn't a surprise when you win it all.

I'm holding out hope for the epic final.

[cjp8816]

2:1 Roseau
5:2 Edina
7:1 Benilde-St. Margaret's
7:1 Hill-Murray
10:1 Blaine
20:1 Woodbury
100:1 Cloquet
1000:1 Lakeville South

Cloquet might of had a poor year, but in noway is HM, Blaine, Woodbury, BSM 80% more likely to take home the State title. This isn't the same Cloquet team we all saw in Dec/Jan. And are these same teams 900% better then LS? or did Moose Lake relocate and change jerseys to Lakeville South.

Anyone know Grand Rapids Odds last year?

[O-townClown]

Cloquet might of had a poor year, but in noway is HM, Blaine, Woodbury, BSM 80% more likely to take home the State title. This isn't the same Cloquet team we all saw in Dec/Jan. And are these same teams 900% better then LS? or did Moose Lake relocate and change jerseys to Lakeville South.

Anyone know Grand Rapids Odds last year?

CJ, odds are sometimes confusing. They aren't 80 per cent more likely, they are 5 times more likely!!

20:1 implies just under a 5% chance of winning (1/21) and 100:1 implies 1% (1/101).

Lakeville South has no chance to win the state title, or about as close to it as you can measure. I think they have only one win all year against a Top 20 team. They'll need to play amazing hockey three nights in a row to beat Hill-Murray, Blaine or Roseau, and then whoever they'd meet in the final. They have shown nothing this year to indicate that is a likelihood.

It has been a long time since a team with more than 5 losses has won AA. I'm not holding my breath on the two teams with 10 losses.

If you put them at something like 20:1 odds (about 5% likely), it greatly cuts into the number you'll assign to the favorites. I'm guessing Edina and Roseau combined are more than 50% likely to win it all.

Okay to disagree if you see it another way, but the math has to balance out and I don't see 10-loss teams going on a roll now. Cloquet more than Lakeville South since they just beat East and Anoka, but South hasn't shown us much all year.

[spin-o-rama]

cjp8816,

You can work the odds backwards to figure out a team's chances to win each individual game. Assuming that those chances are even (same chance of beating a 10 loss team as an undefeated team) then we get the following winning percentages.

Roseau 69%
Edina 66%
BSM/HM 50%
Blaine 45%
Woodbury 37%
Cloquet 22%
Lakeville S 10%

Woodbury is 1.7 times more likely to win a game than Cloquet and 5 times more likely to win 3 in a row.