AA Enrollment

[Basil Chaps]

The enrollment at the top 4 seeds in this years AA, "Big School", championship say a lot about the schools.
1. Roseau- 410
2. Edina- 2232
3. BSM- 873
4. Hill- 861
Add up seeds 1,3, and 4 and you get a total enrollment of 2144, 88 less students than Edina. By enrollment each of the smaller schools should probably be A teams but have opted up and are among the best in the state. Edina should have a clear advantage based on enrollment, but as the seeds say the smallest school is the favorite to win.

[The Best 4th Liner]

But with these bottom two teams do you add in the enrollments from all the schools they take their kids from. Only number that should be surprising here is the low Roseau number. However their rich tradition can probably explain why they can compete with the schools that have higher enrollment

[MNHockeyFan]

But with these bottom two teams do you add in the enrollments from all the schools they take their kids from.

"Take their kids from" is a bad choice of words. The kids that go to these schools CHOOSE to go there, and they're not taken by anybody.

[formerallstar]

Thats just simply amazing that a school with an enrollment of 410 can compete with a school of 2000+.........Props go out to the Rams...........imagine if they were to play single A

[PASTRAPIDSFAN]

But with these bottom two teams do you add in the enrollments from all the schools they take their kids from. Only number that should be surprising here is the low Roseau number. However their rich tradition can probably explain why they can compete with the schools that have higher enrollment

They have southern manitoba and ontario to pick from

[keepyourheadup]

Including Hill and BSM in this theory is shaky logic at best. Private school enrollment is misleading. Like AHA, STA , Marshall and most other privates the cross section of students is far different than at public schools. All these institutions have portions of their teams that attend the school with hockey as a major factor. Suppose there were 250 fewer kids at Hill, do you think the quality of their team would suffer? I have no beef with the private schools but lets compare apples to apples so to speak.

[HShockeywatcher]

We're not going to get anywhere with this topic, like usual. That being said, one thing never considered is how many sports/extra-curriculars schools participate in during the winter season. I can only comment on the school I personally know about. The metro school I know about that has about 550 male high school students has 6 winters sports, plus extra-curriculars like math team, knowledge bowl, quiz bowl, mock trial, and probably some I can't think of, with many of these having many teams like JV, B squad, etc. Not claiming this school to be special, but I know many schools don't offer that many sports.

People throw around "has so many students to choose from" when in reality many of the students are participating in other activities.

[K Dope]

Glad Edina was able to "recruit" Lee back from the Privates. Are there any "would be" Edina/Woodbury/Lakeville South/Blaine players playing for privates this year? [/quote]

[wbmd]

Glad Edina was able to "recruit" Lee back from the Privates. Are there any "would be" Edina/Woodbury/Lakeville South/Blaine players playing for privates this year?

There are from at least Woodbury.

[The Best 4th Liner]

Including Hill and BSM in this theory is shaky logic at best. Private school enrollment is misleading. Like AHA, STA , Marshall and most other privates the cross section of students is far different than at public schools. All these institutions have portions of their teams that attend the school with hockey as a major factor. Suppose there were 250 fewer kids at Hill, do you think the quality of their team would suffer? I have no beef with the private schools but lets compare apples to apples so to speak.

Thats what I was trying to say

[O-townClown]

Student is a would-be student-athlete at Edina High, but he chose a different route.

Back to the topic of enrollment. Roseau is impressive, no doubt about it.

I would never say large enrollments are not an advantage - they are. However...it isn't linear. 3,000 isn't twice as good as 1,500.

• In hockey, Sweden (pop. about 8,000,000?) regularly competes with Russia (200,000,000+ probably, not sure as the lines have been redrawn with the cessation of the Baltic states and all the -ekistans) and the United States (300,000,000).
  
  In basketball, Lithuania (about 4.5 million if I recall, or roughly as many people as Minnesota or Wisconsin) won a Bronze medal in the 90s. You'd think they have no chance against Brazil (200,000,000?), China (1,000,000,000+), or Argentina (probably more than 100,000,000).
  
  In soccer Denmark (4,000,000) can compete in Europe against England (no idea...35,000,000??), France (80,000,000?), and Spain (90,000,000??).

At some point there are diminishing returns or even the inverse of that where you don't get any return at all with more people. In the case of Edina High, since that is the subject of your post, there are so many kids that get cut in 10th grade and never play JV that their development ceases. Or maybe they didn't have success earlier in Pee Wee or Bantam. In a place like Warroad or Roseau they don't get cut and their development continues. The point is that a program can only develop so many players so you don't become too much better off with the run from 1,500 to 2,500. Some gain, but a team won't go from 15-12 to 25-2.

Having seen the 'downside' of Edina's large enrollment close up, I remember stories like this:

• * Scott Jenewein never playing HS Varsity before starring at Mankato where I think he was an All-American. He was signed by the Blues and played for their AHL affiliate.
  
  * Dave Jecha getting cut from JV as a HS junior. He transferred to Minnetonka, played on their Varsity as a senior, and was selected in the NHL Draft.
  
  * Mike Wurst getting cut from Edina's Varsity even though his twin brother Dan made it. Both played Division 1 hockey, though. Mike played for Ohio State and (I believe) was on scholarship. I think he was also drafted. As a senior in HS he played for Edina's Jr. B team of 'rejects' in a league with all the other teams fielding post-HS players.
  
  * Jim Carroll playing Midget hockey as a 10th grader because he couldn't make JV, then making JV as a junior before being called up at midseason. Senior year he shared Metro POY honors with Scott Bloom. Normally that award goes to guys who played 3 or 4 seasons of Varsity hockey, not 1 1/2. (Lee and Boyd are potential future winners that may play 5.) He was thisclose to not playing HS at all because of the logjam in front of him at a large-enrollment school. In those days Edina had between 600-625 in each class. (Four year enrollment was probably 2,300 or more.)

Big enrollment is great, but you can see it also makes it so you don't have a place to put everyone. Huge Hook posted that Edina's roster after tryouts in 1982 was comprised entirely of seniors. A bunch of 1983 grads played college hockey (M. DeVoe, D. Carroll, and others) and 1984 grad Paul Ranheim played about a decade in the NHL. At a 400 enrollment school guys like that would be called on to not only dress for Varsity, they would probably be expected to contribute.

[Irishmans Shanty]

3,000 isn't twice as good as 1,500.

Bingo.

Most of the time a bundle of bodies just leads to a higher number of average players. Meaning, the big enrollment schools could field two very good teams but the best from each combined will not exceed the two divided ones.

Would a single Bloomington, Lakeville, or Apple Valley team be much better than the divided ones?

[O-townClown]

Would a single Bloomington, Lakeville, or Apple Valley team be much better than the divided ones?

They would do better, but it wouldn't be like when Edina merged.

I thought that Roseville was going to be a threat when it combined Alexander Ramsey and whatever other school they had, but they didn't get there and it is for the reasons you cite. They didn't have two top-tier teams merging, they had two average.

In Bloomington's case it is pretty-good Jefferson picking up Kennedy after the precipitous decline. Not much at all.

Lakeville S & N, yes...much better. Still at state!! Probably a top third team in Lake.

Eastview plus Apple Valley doesn't help as much as the Lakeville merger, but more than Bloomington.

I've moved away, but isn't Anoka now carved out to feed three schools? Anoka, Champlin Park, and Andover. Football was dominated by the large enrollment A-B-C schools (Anoka, Blaine, Coon Rapids) for a long time, plus massive Stillwater.

[gatzke]

everyone forgot that Cloquet has an enrolment small enough to be in class A right

[K Dope]

O-Town -

Great research/memory. I would add to your theory/fact the cover story of a recent Let's Play Hockey issue regarding Andrew Alberts Youth, High School, Juniors, College, AHL and NHL career. He could have easily quit hockey as a Sophomore in High School.

Since you are so good with your stats, populations etc...

What about #of any particular associations indoor sheets of ice/per youth player - or available indoor hours ice/per youth player. I am in a huge association and the kids aren't getting enough indoor ice time. I imagine Roseau does not have this problem. Curious on your thoughts.

[Dominator55]

I think like it was said before, Edina has a clear advantage in numbers, but I do find it odd that they don't have more elite players. It seems like that Edina just has a wide range of talent levels in the high school age group, ranging from Varsity down to U16, but they just don't seem to produce the mass amount of talent that you would expect from a school of that size, yet Edina seems to dominate for all the teams in the high school age group. Here's a good fact, Edina fields 6 teams for high schoolers(Varsity, JV, JGA, JGB and 2 U16's.) In regular season play this year, those 6 teams combined for a record of 122-12-14. When you really think about it, it is truly amazing how a team like Roseau can be so good with such a small enrollment, but they do it every year.

[O-townClown]

Dominator, I live in Florida now where participation is very low in relation to Minnesota so I think I'm seeing the flip side.

In Edina, the top Squirts move to Pee Wee and are held back to some degree. All youth rosters are about 15 skaters. They have 2 goaltenders on each of 12 boys Squirt teams. When I was a kid, every player off my 40-8 Squirt A team played house league within Edina as a first-year Pee Wee as all roster spots on A and B went to 2nd year players.

In Florida they are looking for any kid that can stand up to play travel Mites and a good Squirt is starring on a team where they skate nearly every other shift.

I think the community-based model in Minnesota is superior, but I'm not at all surprised that Dallas is turning out a bunch of elite-level players.

In Roseau you have every chance to flourish because they need all the boys in the program to step up. I'm not saying it makes it easy, but take their best kids and realize they probably would play B-level hockey as a first-year Squirt, Pee Wee, and Bantam and the travel rosters all the way up play three lines.

Seriously, a DRAFTED buy as a senior in HS couldn't make Edina's JV as a junior! And Ikola is considered the best coach around! Put that same kid in Florida today and the coach is riding him like a Greyhound bus.

The huge associations don't try to hold you back, they just do.

As for the assertion Edina doesn't turn out that many great players from their youth program, it HAS to be at least one drafted player on average since 1968 - the last 40 years. I wouldn't be surprised if it is 1.5.

[O-townClown]

cessation

Did I write that? The root word is secede, so I really messed it up. Cessation is a variant of cease, right?

Any English major can straighten me out.

Secedetion?!! I have no idea.

[Irishmans Shanty]

Look at Roseau's roster, the kids doing the damage come from good hockey stock. Look at Warroad's, it's the same case. Drive down any street in Lakeville or Apple Valley after a snowfall and you'll see a ton of men wearing Packer stuff shoveling and snowblowing.

I can't explain it in this post but on my street there are five kids that can skate, mine and the kids from the family that came from Buffalo. Now everyone else on the street is of the same species, has the same abilities, and the same financial resources, yet some will become very good and others will never even try.

It's not the numbers, it's where the numbers come from.

[komada77]

Glad Edina was able to "recruit" Lee back from the Privates. Are there any "would be" Edina/Woodbury/Lakeville South/Blaine players playing for privates this year?

There are from at least Woodbury.

Cecka and Zepeda would both play for Woodbury

[hshckfan08]

Thats just simply amazing that a school with an enrollment of 410 can compete with a school of 2000+.........Props go out to the Rams...........imagine if they were to play single A

Litchfield would send em to Mariucci

[goldy313]

Lakeville has a couple of kids at St. Thomas, the split doesn't hurt them as much as the kids leaving altogether. The kids they lose make up the talent part of the equation more than the depth.

Regarding enrollment, metro private schools draw from a large population base making their actual enrollment numbers irrelevent. In general a larger enrollment menas more depth not more talent. In hockey conditioning can negate any advantage gained by depth but not size, in a sport like football it can't. The other thing I noticed is 1A may have been the deepest in the state in A, I doubt either Lourdes or West would have beat South, South is just too big and too deep.

BSM and Hill-Murray draw from a larger population base than any public school. Cloquet is an AA school, their co-op stauts makes them one just like Dodge County and the rest.

[eagle4life9]

But if Lakeville didnt split maybe those kids would have stayed. But they probably left because of the coach.

And Lakeville's excuse cant be "well if we didnt split we would be so much better" although thats VERY true its not an excuse. Its better for the whole student body to have two high schools even though the sports programs may struggle a bit but even LS and LN on there own have done fine in many sports. Obviously there are more schools that should split but im not going to name names here. But if splitting is your excuse then why cant Rochester use that excuse, and St Cloud and Duluth and all the other towns that have more than one public high school. Could you imagine what those schools would be like?

[postnin]

Numbers help and anyone who says otherwise is kidding themselves.

But its what is done with those numbers that matters...

Sure Ikola, Sat's, Osiecki....and on and on have cut talented kids, but they also helped to create a "hockey town/community" which helped to develop stronger coaches in the whole program...and kids with the desire to keep listnening to coaches and develop at the Junior gold U16 levels etc...

The Lakevilles and AV Eastviews and other metro teams struggle to maintain competetive teams because they have never been "Hockey towns" look at their crowds, look at their Student sections, look at their extreme swings in ability from year to year,

Kids leave these programs because they are searching for the whole package,

Kids don't leave Lake Conference AA schools like Bloom, Burns, who have that "Hockey town" history..at least not like they leave from the other lake towns...

Numbers are great, but it's what the Coach, school, community does with or without numbers that counts!!!

[DadsMoney]

OTC is the man!