Twins 34-34 on 6/18

[Neutron 14]

BOOF-BOOF, OUT GO THE LIGHTS!

[packerboy]

OK all you Gardy wannabes.

What is your playoff rotation?

Can Boof boof em in da Bronx?

Is Garza ready?

Is Silva back?

Is Baker in the mix?

In what order do we start them?

What about the last weekend? If the WC is clinched, we agree that Santana should sit so he can start game one?

Who is your game 2 starter? Does he go on the last Sunday if the division is on the line.

Lets hear some answers.

[packerboy]

IS, I hate the Sox as much a you do but its pretty much the same team that won it all last year and lost just a few games in the playoffs.

The home run is a great weapon. Look at what it does for the Twins when they get one....the last 2 games are a good example.

What was the biggest moment of the season so far? Morneaus HR vs Detroit. Now we have to put Hunters shot last night right up there.

The Twins are very one dimensional without the HR. Why does their offense disappear on occasion? Single, single ,double play. All of the Pirahna stuff is real cute but with out guys to drive them in they dont sell any Tshirts.

But the starting pitching is the key. Bonser held them in the game. White Sox havent had enough of that this year.

[Blue Breeze]

Should we make the playoffs, here is my rotation:

1-Johan Santana (Obviously)
2-Boof Bonser (He looks very poised and has command of his pitches. He has earned it)
3-Matt Garza (Has the stuff to dominate and his command is getting better. He has looked much better as of late.)
4-Carlos Silva (I know he is a veteran, but he is constantly changing his sinker in an attempt to find it. He has pitched better as of late, but not exactly against the Yankees or White Sox lineup. I don't trust him against a good lineup.

[Neutron 14]

Assuming the Twins make the playoffs, (karma insurance)

I'd go

1. Santana

2. Silva

3. Boof

Both Garza and Baker for long relief, especially Baker vs Yanks (2 wins).

I also think Radke should start the last game of the season, if it means nothing. You can bring in Baker or Garza to pitch from the second batter on.

We owe him a curtain call.

[packerboy]

I think you have to have 4 these days Neut.

1. Santana

2. The Boof

3. Silva

4. Garza

I like the way Boof has been pitching. He seems very cool. If he can do that in Fenway in the middle of a race, he can pitch well enough to give his team a chance in the playoffs.

I dont trust Silva either. He is too tempermental for me and his mechanics seem to get out of whack real easy. But, he has the experience so I go with him third

Garza is big question mark but as Blue Breeze points out , he has stuff.

Baker doesnt need to be on the roster IMO. He isnt ready for this yet.

We have a long reliever (Guerrer) who is used to the role.

Amazing. We lose 2 starters ,one who was pitching well and the other dominant, and gain ground. Incredible depth and at the right time.

[boblee]

many scenarios...if the twins can still win the division and have NOT clinched, you chuck santana. If not, you chuck Perkins on the final day of the year...

If you are in New York and Santana starts on the season's final day..

Bonser
Santana
Baker
Silva
Santana

New York and Santana doesn't start

Santana
Bonser
Baker
Silva
Santana

Playing Oakland with Santana starting the last day

Bonser
Santana
Silva
Garza
Santana

Oakland without Santana closing the season

Santana
Bonser
Silva
Garza
Santana

[EREmpireStrikesBack]

No way does Baker pitch in the playoffs. I'd rather have Nick Punto out there. And I say, divison or no divison, Santana does not pitch the last day. I have the confidence that one of our other pitchers (Garza or Baker) could win the game for us. I just think that Santana will win the Divison Series for us regardless of who we play so it isn't worth it to risk him just for HFA.

1. Santana
2. Bonser
3. Silva
4. Garza
How crazy is it that two guys who were in the minors at the beginning of the year (one was at single A) would be in our starting rotation for the playoffs. It's crazy that we'd make the playoffs with 3 guys that were in the minors, much less have 2 of them in the rotation and 1 is our #2 guy. I don't think any other club could ever do this.

I like the idea of throwing out Radke for an inning in the final game. He does deserve something for staying true to the Twins when he coulda gone out and gotten big $ after his 20 win season, but he stayed here for semi-big $ instead and has suffered w/ the Twins through all the down times.

Lets Go Twins!

(Are they doing homer hankies again this year?)

[packerboy]

I was wondering if someone would throw Baker in vs the Yankees.

boblee, I dont think the 2 starts he had vs the Yankees( which were impressive) is enough for him to earn the label 'Yankee Killer'.

If he was 7-1 vs them over 3 years then maybe but 2 starts....I dunno.

[ChrisK]

Color me crazy but I think Radke wants to pitch in the postseason and that's why he's been working out like mad to get back out there. While it's unlikely that he'll be able to do it, I'd take him, broken shoulder and all, over either Silva or Garza.

Assuming that Radke's arm falls off and baseball rules prohibit a bionic arm, I'd have to go with:

Santana
Bonser
Garza
Silva

Bonser has been really solid since he came back up. I like Garza's stuff better than Silva's but he's still really green and it's going to be a real challenge for him mentally. Silva's had some good starts lately, but I think he's still a mess and I worry that if the Yankees pound him early he'll wilt like a wet paper sack.

With three series it's probably too difficult to get by with a three man rotation but I'd have to consider it. It's crying over spilt milk but imagine what kind of shape the Twins would be in going with a rotation of Santana, Liriano, Radke and Bonser.

[Blue Breeze]

I think the stars aligned perfectly for Baker on those 2 nights he was able to throw well against the Yankees. In the playoffs against a veteran lineup with Hall of Famers, I don't think he has the mental capability nor the stuff to get out of the 2nd inning.

If Johan has to pitch that final game, it might end up being Silva in that 1st game. It would be his scheduled start and with Bonser throwing that Saturday he would have to come back on short rest. The idea of Silva throwing game 1 in the Bronx makes me vomit, but if all scenarios play out, it could end up that way.

[Irishmans Shanty]

Ortiz
Twins may have to deal with Hafner and Dye, but at least they don't have to try get Ortiz out around 80 times a year.

Playoff Rotation
Recent history proves that three days rest isn't successful. Being that Radke has been nowhere near the bump and Baker just isn't ready, we know who the four are, it's just the order that needs to be determined.

1. Santana
2. Silva - In '03 Gardy went with Rick Reed in game #1 out of the pen after Santana got injured. At the time it seemed like a ridiculous move that was handing the Yanks the game. Reed who was bad down the stretch that year did deliver that day and made Gardy look real smart. Gardy's logic that day to go with a veteran in a tight spot is the same logic that gives Silva the game #2 start this year.
3. Bonser
4. Garza - no need to go with a three man rotation unless backs are to the wall. His odds of delivering are even with Silva and Bonser. He may be just green enough that he doesn't know he is supposed to fail.

Gone but not forgotten
Ozzie Guillen took another step closer to being fired, deported back to Venezuela, or hauled away by a professional in the mental health field when he said yesterday that Tony Batista would get his vote for gold glove at 3B. Managers are not allowed to vote for their own players, thus instead of aiding Chavez to beat out his own guy, he admitted to throw his vote towards the worst third sacker on the ballot. Sorry Tony, but that's you.

[Irishmans Shanty]

It is more important to pitch the ball then it is to hit the ball.

Since eight teams make the playoffs, I looked at who the top eight teams were in a number of catagories to see what would be the best predictor of playoff qualifying teams.

Hitting
BA: 3 of top 8 are in the playoffs as of today
OBP: 3 of top 8 are in the playoffs as of today
HR: 3 of top 8 are in teh playoffs as of today
RBI: 2 of top 8 are in the playoffs as of today

Pitching
ERA: 6 of top 8 are in the playoffs as of today
SO: 2 of top 8 are in the playoffs as of today
BB allowed: 2 of the top 8 are in the playoffs as of today

The best indicator of a playoff team is ERA. Of the 8 best team ERA's, only the Angels and Astros are not in. The Astros would be a playoff team if they were not dead last in hitting, they seem to be this year's version of last year's Twins.

The Twins and Sox seem to be parallel on many levels except for HR's and team ERA. Also the Twins' pitchers have fanned around 180 more batters than the Sox. For the Sox, I guess that is 180 some fewer opportunities for a ball to find a hole, be booted, dropped, or lost in the lights.

Baseball teams are like politicians, you don't have to be great in any one catagory, you just can't afford to be really bad. Squeeze to the middle and appeal to the masses and you will have meaniful games in Sept.

[boblee]

I believe Radke will chuck out of the pen in post season.

[ChrisK]

You know Guillen has thrown in the towel when he's conniving to get one of his guys a gold glove rather than worrying about the Twins' 4.5 game lead in the wildcard. Boblee that makes sense that Radke would come out of the pen rather than start but it's hard to believe that he has much left. He'll have to get by on the grit and guile that packerboy gives me grief about.

So what happened last night, I didn't get to see the game. From the game report it doesn't sound like the Twins are too concerned but they've now lost the last two times Johan has started. The report also mentioned that Johan has been dealing with a sore hip and back which is probably par for the course this late in the season but with the Twins' injury problems has to give one a little twinge of concern. Hopefully it's just a twinge.

Shanty makes a good point on the importance of pitching (and balance), here's the starting pitchers for the three other likely AL playoff teams:

Yankees:
R. Johnson
M. Mussina
C. Wang
C. Lidle
J. Wright

A's:
B. Zito
J. Blanton
E. Loaiza
D. Haren
B. Halsey

Tigers:
K. Rogers
J. Bonderman
N. Robertson
J. Verlander
W. Ledezma

Like the Twins these teams will go down to four starters. In the playoffs the bullpens are as important as the starters so that's another thing to take into consideration. A look at the numbers tells me that the Tigers have the strongest staff, a decent pen but the weakest closer, the A's starters are a little thinner than the Tigers, but they have a pen that comes close to matching the Twins plus a good closer. The Yankees and Twins starters are probably equal, noone can match Santana but the Yankees have more depth, and the Twins' pen is probably the best in the AL while Rivera is arguably the best closer in the AL.

Assuming the matchups are Tigers-A's, Yankees-Twins, these observations suggest that the Tigers starters will need to pitch well to avoid putting the game in the hands of Todd Jones and the Twins' starters will need to keep them in the game so they have a chance to do some damage against the Yankee middle relievers. I lean towards the A's beating the Tigers though the A's have been terrible in the playoffs lately. On paper, the Yankees should beat the Twins but the games are played on grass where the Twins have defied the odds all season so it's a coin flip for me.

[boblee]

and the twins defy more odds when the game is played on turf...and i dont think the twins will play the yankees. I think oakland needs to prepare to head to the dome.

[packerboy]

ChrisK asked what happened last night.

Santana was OK pitching. He didnt get rocked or anything. He just gave up a few soft hits and made a bad error on a bunt.

The Twins did nothing at the plate.

We cant be stunned if we dont win every gane Santana starts. Nobody is nor ever has been that good.

Yes, pitching is very important. But I have yet to see a team win a baseball game scoring 0 runs.

Go Twins, sweep Os and KC and lets go to the playoffs.

[Blue Breeze]

For as human as Santana has looked in the past two starts, his ERA in those starts is 3.68. Not Johan-esque, but still solid. He will be fine. He has been money in the playoffs during his career. I would rather win the 4 starts he doesn't make and lose the 1 he does.

As long as we rebound against the Os this weekend, we'll be fine. Detroit is still struggling and playing a KC team that is playing much better. If Silva can keep it going tonight against the O's, we could very well assume 1st place tonight.

[packerboy]

I agree Blue Breeze.

The magic number for the WC is 5. We should be able to get that on our own vs the Os and KC no matter who Ozzie votes for.

[goldy313]

Santana has had trouble in the early innings the past two starts, giving up 6 earned runs in the first two innings, which is just a little worrysome as it's tough to play from behind especially against the Yankees.

I watched Game 3 of the Chicago/Detroit series and the White Sox quit in that game, I see why Ozzie gets so bent out of shape. Down 5-2 in the top of the 8th with a runner on second, MacDougal (he absolutely sucks by the way) throws a ball low and away, AJ turns his back to field after catching the ball letting the runner make a delayed steal of third. I see why AJ can't stick with a team. The Twins are so much better fundamentaly that the Sox it's no wonder each team is in the place it's in.

As for the rotation, no matter what Santana has to get 2 starts if needed. If Game 2 is in Yankee Stadium I'd throw Radke if at all possible because I wouldn't want to see a rookie try and make a start in the playoffs in the Bronx and being the competitor Radke is I'm hoping that's his target date for return. Then Bonser for game 3 and Silva for game 4.

[ChrisK]

As thin as the rotation has been the Twins will need Santana to be pitching at the Cy Young level for the playoffs. A 3.68 era may be OK for most pitchers but the Twins will need more from him. I'm hoping that this is just a letup before he really has to bear down but the suggestion that his hip and back are hurting worries me a bit.

Like Goldy I'd prefer to see Radke grit it out and pitch in Yankee Stadium but it's asking an awful lot of him. Bonser has pitched well and I think he can come through with five or six innings without too much damage.

Packerboy, pitching in baseball is the same as defense in football and goalies in hockey, as long as you can get some offense if you're good defensively you'll go far.

[packerboy]

I realize that ChrisK.

You gotta throw strikes and you gotta catch the ball. But you also gotta score runs.

The reason the Twins are close to clinching a playoff spot after a year out of the playoffs is because the offense is way better than last year. Way better. Their pitching is not as good this year as it was last year.

They lost so many 3-2; 4-3 games last year it was nauseating...at least to me.

Hit the ball. Win.

Lets go Twins.

[Blue Breeze]

I think the most important thing the Twins have is balance. The past 5 World Series Winners (Diamondbacks, Angels, Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox), all had a good balance of their lineup, rotation, and bullpen.

The Twins have finally found a balance between the three. If we can have that type of balance in the postseason, they have a shot.

[Irishmans Shanty]

You know what is missing from all this playoff matchup discussion nonsense? It's the fact that the A's will not have to deal with the Yanks in the first round. Why don't the A's, if they have the worst record, have to pack up and go to the Bronx?

The NFL has it right. Teams with the best record during the year are rewarded for their efforts during the playoffs. The Vikes can play the Pack on Wild Card weekend, why can't baseball do it as well? The answer is... they can, just as soon as the schedule is balanced again. The time has come for these 3 idiotic geographic championships to go away. MLB needs to 1) eliminate divisions and balance the schedule once again 2) eliminate interleague play 3) make the All Star game meaningless again.

I'm not such a crotchity purist that I want to reduce the number of playoff teams, I'm good with the eight. In fact, I enjoy the extra games and the afternoon starts in the first round. But, geez it's time to seed these teams according to a winning pct. where everyone has the same opponents the same number of times.

By the way, if Comissioner Gary B. of the NHL is reading this, you may want to consider this for your league as well. If not, go back to true divisional playoffs, one where rivalries can really evolve again.

[goldy313]

Since baseball split into 2 divisions per league they haven't put the best teams in the playoffs; the '87 Twins were barely a .500 club, worse they would have finished 5th in the AL East that year. Eliminating divisions means a 14 team AL and a 16 team NL and cheapens the meaning of too many series throughout the year, making too many games meaningless like the NBA and NHL seasons already are. Rivalries also will go by the wayside because you only get 11-12 games and 3 series against any given team leaving an awful lot in the hands of the schedule maker. Imagine going to New York and Boston twice while another team only has to go there once. Unfortunately the Pandora's Box that is expansion has made divisions a fact of life.

I don't like the 3 divisions and like Milwaukee in the NL even less. I hate the way the all star game has meaning, and I hate the Wild Card though I do like the 8 team playoff format and do like interleague play. Under the old 2 division format the Tigers would be 1.5 games behind the Yankees, the A's would be 1 game behind the Twins, Los Angeles would be .5 games behind San Diego, only the Mets would have clinched a playoff spot. All meaning we would have 1 more race than we do now with 6 divisions and 2 wildcard spots. (Only the NL West and NL Wildcard are still races, the AL is set though not the order of finish) The reasoning of adding a wildcard to add excitement is pure BS, it always was there and in almost every year always will be. It's all about revenue, Period.

Going into tonights games the AL playoff race looks like this:
NY Yankees -
Detroit -1.5
Minnesota -2
Oakland -3

Any of the 4 teams has a legit shot at homefield throughout, I wouldn't throw Oakland under the bus just yet.