pioneer is right on time with his weekly rankings.
Elk River #1??. I think the BB1 BCS model needs some tweaking....
2006-07 Bantam B1 preview
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
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ice00breaker
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rankings
I knew that would raise some eyebrows. This is all I can tell you: I've got 2+ yrs in on this model and it tends to be VERY accurate over time. Obviously, as more scores come in, the more accurate it gets (I guess just like subjective rankings). BUT, something to chew on - Edina W and ER have had three common opponents:
Edina 3-0 over Wayzata Blue; ER loses 10-4 to them VERY early in the season
Edina 3-0 over Chaska; ER 5-0 over Chaska
Edina 8-2 over Rochester Black; ER 12-2 over Rochester Black
Elk River has been getting fat on some weak D10 teams, but they have also beaten some very good teams (2-1 over Centennial Red this weekend) and Edina has gotten by some decent but not-so-strong teams, barely (3-2 over Tonka and an OT win over Duluth East for example). Elk River can prove they're worthy with a win over Blaine this Wednesday - or maybe they will get exposed as a fraud.
Point is, Edina gets a lot of "press" (and they should, they are very good) but I think Elk River is better than the rankers are giving them credit for. Time will tell...
Edina 3-0 over Wayzata Blue; ER loses 10-4 to them VERY early in the season
Edina 3-0 over Chaska; ER 5-0 over Chaska
Edina 8-2 over Rochester Black; ER 12-2 over Rochester Black
Elk River has been getting fat on some weak D10 teams, but they have also beaten some very good teams (2-1 over Centennial Red this weekend) and Edina has gotten by some decent but not-so-strong teams, barely (3-2 over Tonka and an OT win over Duluth East for example). Elk River can prove they're worthy with a win over Blaine this Wednesday - or maybe they will get exposed as a fraud.
Point is, Edina gets a lot of "press" (and they should, they are very good) but I think Elk River is better than the rankers are giving them credit for. Time will tell...
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HShockey2180
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blueblood-I appreciate my acceptance into "The Clan"
Rochester Black is one of the most inconsistent teams I have seen this year, even from one period to the next so those scores may tip the tables a little bit. For example, they had Edina White tied 2-2 late in the 2nd period at Duluth. and in the Moose,Wayzata Blue tied 1-1 until 5 minutes left in the 3rd. So in my opinion neither Edina White or Elk River should be scaled with their play vs Rochester since it is still unclear where Rochester truely falls. But after all, a win is a win, and a goal is a goal so cheers to BCS rankings!
Rochester Black is one of the most inconsistent teams I have seen this year, even from one period to the next so those scores may tip the tables a little bit. For example, they had Edina White tied 2-2 late in the 2nd period at Duluth. and in the Moose,Wayzata Blue tied 1-1 until 5 minutes left in the 3rd. So in my opinion neither Edina White or Elk River should be scaled with their play vs Rochester since it is still unclear where Rochester truely falls. But after all, a win is a win, and a goal is a goal so cheers to BCS rankings!
I agree with Pioneer about Elk River. Edina White is very good and when they are playing their best they move the puck better than most teams. Their number one goalie is very good but is beatable if players can get him to move.
Elk River however has been the best team we played and exhibited and added dimension I did not see in Edina White....an unrelenting working ethic and positive attitude.
ER is trying to fly underneath the radar in Let's Play Hockey
We will see how good Edina White is this week. They lost 2 of their top forwards from their 1st line for 2 or more weeks due inury in the Duluth East game and were beat up pretty good in the Thunder Bay game. I did not see the Thunder bay game but I saw them play DE and their other forwards really stepped up.
sorry, 'due to injury'ER
Elk River flying under the radar is an understatement.
With that good of a team, how come they don't play in any top tournaments like WBL, Edina, Bloomington, Duluth, Moorhead, Rochester, or Grand Rapids where all of the other top teams play.
Instead they go to a D4 tournament in Waseca(?) and mop up against minimal competition.
SPS, you didn't like Tonka's preseason schedule. Care to elaborate on the Elks scheduling?
With that good of a team, how come they don't play in any top tournaments like WBL, Edina, Bloomington, Duluth, Moorhead, Rochester, or Grand Rapids where all of the other top teams play.
Instead they go to a D4 tournament in Waseca(?) and mop up against minimal competition.
SPS, you didn't like Tonka's preseason schedule. Care to elaborate on the Elks scheduling?
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ShootPassScore
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Let's not get too high on Elk River. I've seen them play twice and they were very undisciplined. They are extremely talented up front but they dont backcheck or break out well. Take a ton of penalties and get frustrated easily.
BlueBlood put it well. Who have they beat?
Chaska, OK good win there.
Centennial Red is an enigma. But more towards the bottom of the top ten than the top.
Rochester? There is better competition out there.
I would say Elk River is top 10 maybe 7 or 8 not number 1. Edina White has beaten pretty much every tough team in the metro. It isnt because they get more press. They are the best, its that simple.
I think a telling game for Elk River was a 10-4 loss to Wayzata Blue. That's a blow out against a top 10 team, early season or not.
Pioneer I'm not ripping the BCS ranking system but a computer doesnt watch games. Football works well with that system because they play once/week and there is less randomness to that sport. Hockey is more of an any given day-any given team sport.
The ranking system is great for the most part but its pretty tough to determine strength of schedule. I do not agree at all that Elk River is #1 or top 5 for that matter.
BlueBlood put it well. Who have they beat?
Chaska, OK good win there.
Centennial Red is an enigma. But more towards the bottom of the top ten than the top.
Rochester? There is better competition out there.
I would say Elk River is top 10 maybe 7 or 8 not number 1. Edina White has beaten pretty much every tough team in the metro. It isnt because they get more press. They are the best, its that simple.
I think a telling game for Elk River was a 10-4 loss to Wayzata Blue. That's a blow out against a top 10 team, early season or not.
Pioneer I'm not ripping the BCS ranking system but a computer doesnt watch games. Football works well with that system because they play once/week and there is less randomness to that sport. Hockey is more of an any given day-any given team sport.
The ranking system is great for the most part but its pretty tough to determine strength of schedule. I do not agree at all that Elk River is #1 or top 5 for that matter.
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ShootPassScore
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ShootPassScore
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Well, I think the Elk River team we have been debating may have tougher things to worry about. WCCO is reporting a youth hockey coach from Elk River was arrested for selling pot to a cop outside the rink. From the mug shot I recognize him as the Assistant for the Bantam B1 team. Can anyone confirm that? I'm pretty sure its him.
Just when things were looking so good for them...
Pioneer do you have something to calculate that into the rankings
?
Just when things were looking so good for them...
Pioneer do you have something to calculate that into the rankings
?SPS - LOL 
I understand that one game does not make a season nor a solid ranking determination, but ER had everything you claim they don't have the night they routed Chaska. That evening's effort would have easily taken down Edina White. Of course it also doesn't help that is was one of Chaska's most unimpressive efforts.
We have learned that every game night is always a
of what group of players is going to show up, Dr Jekyll or Mr. Hyde.
I understand that one game does not make a season nor a solid ranking determination, but ER had everything you claim they don't have the night they routed Chaska. That evening's effort would have easily taken down Edina White. Of course it also doesn't help that is was one of Chaska's most unimpressive efforts.
We have learned that every game night is always a
of what group of players is going to show up, Dr Jekyll or Mr. Hyde.pioneer rankings
I greatly appreciate the Pioneer man's rankings. Couple of thoughts come to mind.
Team A beats Team B 3-2. Team C beats team B 4-2 with an empty netter, does Pioneer man's system favor Team C with the worthless empty netter?
Team A shellacs Team B 7-0. Team C shellacs Team B 11-1. Do the rankings favor Team C's 11-1 win?
I also assume that the early scrimmages count as much as recent big tourney games.
I've read the explanation for the HS point ranking methodology. Any win by one goal is treated the same as a win by 2 (to discount empty netters). Also, the max value given by the point spread is 5 (a 7-0 victory scores the same as an 11-1 victory).
In any case, I still give more credence to the Pioneer man's rankings than the others out there.
Team A beats Team B 3-2. Team C beats team B 4-2 with an empty netter, does Pioneer man's system favor Team C with the worthless empty netter?
Team A shellacs Team B 7-0. Team C shellacs Team B 11-1. Do the rankings favor Team C's 11-1 win?
I also assume that the early scrimmages count as much as recent big tourney games.
I've read the explanation for the HS point ranking methodology. Any win by one goal is treated the same as a win by 2 (to discount empty netters). Also, the max value given by the point spread is 5 (a 7-0 victory scores the same as an 11-1 victory).
In any case, I still give more credence to the Pioneer man's rankings than the others out there.
rankings explanation
It seems some explanation is needed. my2, to answer your question, I would dearly love to exclude ENG from the "formula". The problem there is that these facts are not typically published when you scour the net for scores. Therefor, I do not discount them even when I do know about them - simply because it would be inconsistent to do so.
Also, yes - all games/scrimmages count equally. Not ideal because as you know, scrimmages often are used not just to "size up" some quality competition, but also for a coach to try new line combos, maybe a new forechecking scheme, etc. It is food for thought and perhaps something to figure in if it can be handicapped accurately.
Now, let me explain as briefly as I can how it works. All teams are given a "seed" number based on the number of teams (or even players) at a given level. For instance, Wayzata B1 Blue's seed # was 78.3 - this based on the fact that they have players #18-34 out of 120. 78.3 reflects the percentile of the median player on that team. By comparison, Orono's seed number is 25 - they have just two teams, an A and a B so the median player on the B team is at the 25th percentile. Ultimately, the seed numbers are nothing but a value to start with; once you have enough scores you could swap these seed numbers and the results would be virtually the same.
Now, using the example of Wayzata Blue and Orono, I've found the best value that works is 1 goal = 5 points. In other words, based on this example, Wayzata should beat Orono by (78.3-25)/5=10.7 goals. The way it works is this: if Wayzata exceeds this value (win by 11 or more) they go up, and Orono goes down. Obviously the opposite if they win by 10 or less. A general rule of thumb is your overall point value will go up (or down) by ~0.5 points for each goal that you exceed (or miss) the target value. BTW, Wayzata is now at 79.8 and Orono at 35.9 meaning Wayzata should beat Orono by about 8.8 goals. And look at that, Wayzata won last week 9-0.
Additionally, all the scores are re-evaluated each time. Therefor, an early season whupping on a team that turns out to be maybe not as good as advertised has less effect if everybody else is pounding on them as well. For that reason, you could play nobody one week and still move down or up in points based on how all the teams you played did that week. I know, not so simple but it has seemed to work well in the past.
And so - using the rankings #s, a preview of the two Edina/EP tilts tonight suggests:
White over Black by 3
Green over Red by 1
Obviously, it can't take everything into account. Sounds like White has a couple of kids hurt - that'll probably make a difference. And there is no way to account for the biggest wildcard: a big differential in talent from your #1 and #2 goalies. But as I have stated before, it all tends to come out in the wash over the long haul.
And also - you will all be happy to know that the Elks slipped into 2nd place since D10 has updated their scores. (Sorry, drug dealing assistant coaches have not found their way into the formula. Man, that stuff really bothers me...)
Also, yes - all games/scrimmages count equally. Not ideal because as you know, scrimmages often are used not just to "size up" some quality competition, but also for a coach to try new line combos, maybe a new forechecking scheme, etc. It is food for thought and perhaps something to figure in if it can be handicapped accurately.
Now, let me explain as briefly as I can how it works. All teams are given a "seed" number based on the number of teams (or even players) at a given level. For instance, Wayzata B1 Blue's seed # was 78.3 - this based on the fact that they have players #18-34 out of 120. 78.3 reflects the percentile of the median player on that team. By comparison, Orono's seed number is 25 - they have just two teams, an A and a B so the median player on the B team is at the 25th percentile. Ultimately, the seed numbers are nothing but a value to start with; once you have enough scores you could swap these seed numbers and the results would be virtually the same.
Now, using the example of Wayzata Blue and Orono, I've found the best value that works is 1 goal = 5 points. In other words, based on this example, Wayzata should beat Orono by (78.3-25)/5=10.7 goals. The way it works is this: if Wayzata exceeds this value (win by 11 or more) they go up, and Orono goes down. Obviously the opposite if they win by 10 or less. A general rule of thumb is your overall point value will go up (or down) by ~0.5 points for each goal that you exceed (or miss) the target value. BTW, Wayzata is now at 79.8 and Orono at 35.9 meaning Wayzata should beat Orono by about 8.8 goals. And look at that, Wayzata won last week 9-0.
Additionally, all the scores are re-evaluated each time. Therefor, an early season whupping on a team that turns out to be maybe not as good as advertised has less effect if everybody else is pounding on them as well. For that reason, you could play nobody one week and still move down or up in points based on how all the teams you played did that week. I know, not so simple but it has seemed to work well in the past.
And so - using the rankings #s, a preview of the two Edina/EP tilts tonight suggests:
White over Black by 3
Green over Red by 1
Obviously, it can't take everything into account. Sounds like White has a couple of kids hurt - that'll probably make a difference. And there is no way to account for the biggest wildcard: a big differential in talent from your #1 and #2 goalies. But as I have stated before, it all tends to come out in the wash over the long haul.
And also - you will all be happy to know that the Elks slipped into 2nd place since D10 has updated their scores. (Sorry, drug dealing assistant coaches have not found their way into the formula. Man, that stuff really bothers me...)
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HShockey2180
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MNhockey17
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Elk River undisciplined?
ShootPassScore wrote:Let's not get too high on Elk River. I've seen them play twice and they were very undisciplined. They are extremely talented up front but they dont backcheck or break out well. Take a ton of penalties and get frustrated easily.
BlueBlood put it well. Who have they beat?
Chaska, OK good win there.
Centennial Red is an enigma. But more towards the bottom of the top ten than the top.
Rochester? There is better competition out there.
I would say Elk River is top 10 maybe 7 or 8 not number 1. Edina White has beaten pretty much every tough team in the metro. It isnt because they get more press. They are the best, its that simple.
I think a telling game for Elk River was a 10-4 loss to Wayzata Blue. That's a blow out against a top 10 team, early season or not.
Pioneer I'm not ripping the BCS ranking system but a computer doesnt watch games. Football works well with that system because they play once/week and there is less randomness to that sport. Hockey is more of an any given day-any given team sport.
The ranking system is great for the most part but its pretty tough to determine strength of schedule. I do not agree at all that Elk River is #1 or top 5 for that matter.
If Elk River is so undisciplined, then why do they have all their fair play points in D10? I also have to say I disagree with you saying they are not that good at backchecking and breaking out. I've seen a lot of their games and they seem to do it better then a lot of other teams. (centennial,chaska,stillwater,maple grove, and more). Tomorrow vs Blaine will determine a lot.
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mnhockey36299
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Elk River
Thanks for the excellent explanation on the rankings pioneer.
Tonight we have Elk River vs Blaine.
I hate to be "blunt", but I wouldn't be so "high" on ER either, since the team may go "up in smoke" after the recent "hit" the team took from the "joint" assistant coach's arrest. Blaine better not think this one's in the "bag", as the Elks could come out hungry (groan) and put a "lid" on their hopes. This one's still up for grabs and I wouldn't bet a "dime" on the outcome.
I should be ashamed....
Tonight we have Elk River vs Blaine.
I hate to be "blunt", but I wouldn't be so "high" on ER either, since the team may go "up in smoke" after the recent "hit" the team took from the "joint" assistant coach's arrest. Blaine better not think this one's in the "bag", as the Elks could come out hungry (groan) and put a "lid" on their hopes. This one's still up for grabs and I wouldn't bet a "dime" on the outcome.
I should be ashamed....