AA Rankings for 1/30/11

[karl(east)]

Karl:
Thanks for doing these rankings. I am coming in finally to support the Benilde team.

Benilde should not be a "hard team to rank". They belong right where you have them. (could be one higher because of their Minnetonka win, but NBD).

Here is the case for BSM, based on actual results.

Overall Record:
-Benilde has the best record in AA right now (15-2). And the weak schedule argument does not work so well. BSM is 8-2 against teams in your top 30, 4-2 against your top ten. They are 3-1 agains top five teams.

Quality wins:
BSM has beaten the teams you now have ranked #1, #3 and #5. No one else has done that.

Also, every team in your top ten (except #9GR) has either been beaten by BSM or beaten a team that BSM beat.

Explosive offense:
-BSM has more goals than any AA team. Weak Schedule? How about an average of 5.2 goals per game against EP, Edina, MG and Holy Angels. Consider the "early" HM and Tonka games and the average is still 4.5 GPP against top 15 teams.

No bad losses:
-BSM is undefeated and untied outside of your current top ten.

Some other facts:
-They just blew out your #3A team (Totino) by 9-2 and a AA bubble team (Osseo) by 8-2.
-They had three players in the Elite League Top 20 in scoring this year.
-Depth? They have eight players averaging more than a point per game.

Thanks; I do agree with just about everything you say.

I called them "hard to rank" for a couple of reasons. If you follow strict A-beats-B etc. logic, they could easily have a case for #1. (See BodyShots's post--some people think they do.) On the flip side, some people have seen them and think they're not quite as good as the other top teams.

I have seen them 3 times now. The top 2 forward lines are as good as anyone's, and they have some standout defensemen.
-My point about depth is this, though: I've seen 9 of my current top 10 play this year (the exception being Burnsville). Of those teams, BSM uses its third line far less than the others (in games against other top teams). That's not necessarily going to condemn them; those top two lines are phenomenal, and they spot the 3rd line some when needed. But I don't think it's a coincidence that all the recent state champions have been able to roll 3 or 4 strong lines.

Also, the defense (and goaltending). Yes, they get a lot of goals, even against good teams. But in those 4 games you mentioned (AHA, HM, Edina, EP), they're averaging 5.5 GAA. That has to come down. Again, they may be able to roll through sections winning barnburners, but the line "defense wins championships" became a cliche for a reason.

Balance out those views and you get them around #4 right now. No team is without its flaws this year, so they certainly have a very real shot at the top.

Also, all credit for the single-A rankings should go to HSHW. I have nothing to do with them.

[bsmguy]

Karl:
Thanks for the response. Its great that you put so much into these rankings. I agree with most of what you said, especially about the GAA. As you say, all teams have their faults this year.

I do think that BSM is "as good as the other top teams", by virtue of being 3-1 against the other four in the top five.

By the way, the third line scored the game winning goal against AHA. This line also scored against EP, Hill Murray and Minnetonka. Don't sell them short.

I agree with your ranking BSM second in 6AA right now. I think any of the top four teams can emerge from that section.

[karl(east)]

By the way, the third line scored the game winning goal against AHA. This line also scored against EP, Hill Murray and Minnetonka. Don't sell them short.

I think the bigger issue with the 3rd line is their playing time. Often teams that only rely on two lines will get worn down by teams that play three (as EP, Tonka, and Wayzata all do). It doesn't always happen. But as I look ahead to their matchups with those teams and look for an edge...EP and Wayzata also have very good top 2 lines, their 3rd lines play more, and their defenses are a bit more sound. How does BSM beat them? Tonka may not have the front line talent of the other three, and their defense is young, but they're deep and playing well as a team at the moment. It's going to be a fascinating 6AA tourney, and I'm curious to see what little things will end up making the difference in those games.

[PuckU126]

By the way, the third line scored the game winning goal against AHA. This line also scored against EP, Hill Murray and Minnetonka. Don't sell them short.

I think the bigger issue with the 3rd line is their playing time. Often teams that only rely on two lines will get worn down by teams that play three (as EP, Tonka, and Wayzata all do). It doesn't always happen. But as I look ahead to their matchups with those teams and look for an edge...EP and Wayzata also have very good top 2 lines, their 3rd lines play more, and their defenses are a bit more sound. How does BSM beat them? Tonka may not have the front line talent of the other three, and their defense is young, but they're deep and playing well as a team at the moment. It's going to be a fascinating 6AA tourney, and I'm curious to see what little things will end up making the difference in those games.

Goaltending. That's usually the deciding factor...

Its not little but you know where I am going here.

[bsmguy]

[/quote]
Goaltending. That's usually the deciding factor...

Its not little but you know where I am going here.[/quote]

GAA to date (hockeyhub):

EP 2.72
BSM 2.18
Wayz 2.58
Tonka 2.44


Adjusting for some weaker BSM opponents, I would say the four teams are pretty equal in this stat.

[BodyShots]

GAA to date (hockeyhub):

EP 2.72
BSM 2.18
Wayz 2.58
Tonka 2.44


Adjusting for some weaker BSM opponents, I would say the four teams are pretty equal in this stat.

Any one of these four teams can win their section. The winner has to get by two very strong teams. The big question is, will they have anything left for the actual State Tournament? If I'm the coach, and I survive section 6AA, how do I prevent a let down the following week?

[PuckU126]

Goaltending. That's usually the deciding factor...

Its not little but you know where I am going here.

GAA to date (hockeyhub):

EP 2.72
BSM 2.18
Wayz 2.58
Tonka 2.44


Adjusting for some weaker BSM opponents, I would say the four teams are pretty equal in this stat.

FYI My comment wasn't directly meant for you (bsmguy) and your BSM; it was merely a generalized comment for all teams in the the post-season.

Thanks for the stats though.

[FREDFLINTSTONE]

Goaltending. That's usually the deciding factor...

Its not little but you know where I am going here.[/quote]

GAA to date (hockeyhub):

EP 2.72
BSM 2.18
Wayz 2.58
Tonka 2.44


Adjusting for some weaker BSM opponents, I would say the four teams are pretty equal in this stat.[/quote]


You should get together with HHF.

[minnscout]

I have seen Wayzata EP BSM and Minnetonka all play 5 times or more and BSM plays their 3rd line as much or more as any of the other teams mentioned above.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Goaltending. That's usually the deciding factor...

Its not little but you know where I am going here.

GAA to date (hockeyhub):

EP 2.72
BSM 2.18
Wayz 2.58
Tonka 2.44


Adjusting for some weaker BSM opponents, I would say the four teams are pretty equal in this stat.[/quote]


You should get together with HHF. [/quote]We will get together at the State Tournament while EP watches us on TV...

[breakout]

Goaltending. That's usually the deciding factor...

Its not little but you know where I am going here.[/quote]

GAA to date (hockeyhub):

EP 2.72
BSM 2.18
Wayz 2.58
Tonka 2.44


Adjusting for some weaker BSM opponents, I would say the four teams are pretty equal in this stat.[/quote]


Typically goalies with great stats have good D in front of them. That likely holds true for the list you have provided.

[cooper26]

Typically goalies with great stats have good D in front of them. That likely holds true for the list you have provided.

That's very true and G.A.A. is almost useless as a measure for comparing tenders. Save percentage doesn't tell the whole story either.