Based on Scores (sorted by team) through February 16, 2014 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Minimum 5 Scores vs. D1 Competition to be Ranked Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 16 4 3, 1.7, 8.6, 10.29, 10.09 2,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 21 1 1, 2.8, 6.8, 9.65, 9.27 3,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 16 4 4, 1.0, 8.5, 9.45, 10.08 4,Bethel,____________________________ 16 5 2, 1.6, 7.7, 9.28, 8.23 5,Lake Forest,_______________________ 13 5 3, 1.5, 7.8, 9.27, 9.80 6,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 14 4 6, 1.3, 7.9, 9.17, 9.28 7,Middlebury,________________________ 17 2 4, 1.5, 7.6, 9.04, 8.16 8,Elmira,____________________________ 18 4 1, 2.0, 7.0, 9.02, 9.13 9,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 15 6 2, 1.2, 7.8, 9.02, 8.58 10,St Scholastica,____________________ 14 6 3, 1.3, 7.7, 8.97, 9.24 11,Norwich,___________________________ 21 3 0, 2.2, 6.7, 8.89, 9.12 12,St Norbert,________________________ 15 6 2, 1.2, 7.7, 8.87, 9.70 13,St Thomas,_________________________ 15 5 3, 0.9, 7.9, 8.76, 8.51 14,Adrian,____________________________ 17 6 0, 1.6, 7.1, 8.64, 7.45 15,Amherst,___________________________ 12 5 5, 1.2, 7.3, 8.52, 9.25 16,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 10 9 4, 0.0, 8.1, 8.13, 8.28 17,St Anselm,_________________________ 22 3 0, 1.8, 6.2, 7.92, 8.06 18,Williams,__________________________ 11 8 3, 0.4, 7.2, 7.60, 7.60 19,Trinity,___________________________ 10 7 5, 0.6, 6.9, 7.53, 7.66 20,Oswego,____________________________ 16 6 1, 1.3, 6.1, 7.44, 7.45 21,Utica,_____________________________ 15 8 0, 0.8, 6.5, 7.35, 7.50 22,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 15 1, -0.7, 8.0, 7.32, 5.36 23,Castleton,_________________________ 14 9 2, 1.0, 6.3, 7.30, 7.38 24,Holy Cross,________________________ 15 7 1, 0.8, 6.5, 7.30, 7.10 25,Salve Regina,______________________ 15 6 4, 0.8, 6.3, 7.10, 8.07 26,St Catherine,______________________ 11 10 1, -0.3, 7.4, 7.04, 8.10 27,Connecticut College,_______________ 9 10 3, 0.2, 6.8, 6.98, 7.16 28,Augsburg,__________________________ 7 16 0, -0.7, 7.6, 6.96, 7.71 29,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 4 18 2, -1.7, 8.6, 6.90, 6.46 30,Bowdoin,___________________________ 10 9 3, -0.3, 7.2, 6.88, 7.04 31,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 8 14 1, -0.6, 7.5, 6.86, 6.33 32,Hamilton,__________________________ 7 13 2, -0.4, 7.1, 6.78, 6.23 33,Wesleyan,__________________________ 8 10 4, -0.2, 6.9, 6.67, 6.76 34,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 18 4 2, 1.3, 5.3, 6.66, 5.93 35,St Olaf,___________________________ 6 16 1, -1.5, 8.1, 6.60, 6.93 36,Hamline,___________________________ 7 14 2, -1.1, 7.6, 6.56, 7.48 37,Colby,_____________________________ 8 12 2, -0.5, 6.9, 6.47, 6.92 38,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 11 10 4, 0.0, 6.4, 6.41, 6.01 39,Manhattanville,____________________ 8 13 4, -0.4, 6.8, 6.40, 6.07 40,Marian,____________________________ 5 16 1, -1.5, 7.9, 6.37, 5.53 41,St Benedict,_______________________ 7 16 0, -1.2, 7.5, 6.29, 7.74 42,Potsdam,___________________________ 12 8 3, 0.0, 6.2, 6.15, 5.75 43,Southern Maine,____________________ 10 14 1, -0.6, 6.2, 5.62, 4.65 44,University of New England,_________ 8 11 4, -0.4, 5.8, 5.33, 5.16 45,Neumann,___________________________ 6 15 2, -1.1, 6.4, 5.28, 4.79 46,Chatham,___________________________ 4 17 2, -1.3, 6.4, 5.12, 5.47 47,Finlandia,_________________________ 1 20 0, -3.0, 8.1, 5.06, 5.62 48,Stevenson,_________________________ 8 16 1, -0.9, 5.8, 4.89, 5.27 49,Canton,____________________________ 8 14 3, -0.8, 5.7, 4.88, 5.45 50,Cortland,__________________________ 2 19 2, -2.0, 6.8, 4.82, 5.46 51,Sacred Heart,______________________ 3 12 6, -1.1, 5.9, 4.80, 5.24 52,Buffalo State,_____________________ 3 19 1, -2.2, 6.9, 4.68, 5.38 53,St Michael's,______________________ 3 18 3, -1.5, 6.2, 4.67, 4.59 54,Plymouth State,____________________ 5 18 2, -1.4, 6.1, 4.61, 5.81 55,Nichols,___________________________ 4 21 0, -2.2, 6.5, 4.32, 3.98 56,New England College,_______________ 3 22 0, -2.3, 6.3, 3.95, 4.42 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 16 4 3, 0.5, 7.6, 8.11, 8.06 2,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 16 4 4, 0.5, 7.5, 8.03, 8.02 3,Middlebury,________________________ 17 2 4, 0.7, 7.1, 7.79, 7.59 4,St Thomas,_________________________ 15 5 3, 0.4, 7.3, 7.78, 7.75 5,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 21 1 1, 0.9, 6.9, 7.77, 7.67 6,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 14 4 6, 0.4, 7.3, 7.75, 7.66 7,Bethel,____________________________ 16 5 2, 0.5, 7.2, 7.73, 7.46 8,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 15 6 2, 0.4, 7.3, 7.72, 7.54 9,Norwich,___________________________ 21 3 0, 0.8, 6.9, 7.64, 7.43 10,Lake Forest,_______________________ 13 5 3, 0.4, 7.2, 7.59, 7.98 11,St Norbert,________________________ 15 6 2, 0.4, 7.2, 7.57, 7.67 12,Elmira,____________________________ 18 4 1, 0.6, 7.0, 7.56, 7.41 13,St Scholastica,____________________ 14 6 3, 0.3, 7.2, 7.52, 7.60 14,St Anselm,_________________________ 22 3 0, 0.8, 6.8, 7.52, 7.84 15,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 10 9 4, 0.0, 7.4, 7.43, 7.38 16,Adrian,____________________________ 17 6 0, 0.5, 7.0, 7.43, 6.88 17,Amherst,___________________________ 12 5 5, 0.3, 7.1, 7.40, 7.71 18,Holy Cross,________________________ 15 7 1, 0.3, 6.9, 7.21, 7.04 19,Williams,__________________________ 11 8 3, 0.1, 7.1, 7.20, 7.30 20,St Catherine,______________________ 11 10 1, 0.0, 7.1, 7.18, 7.23 21,Salve Regina,______________________ 15 6 4, 0.4, 6.8, 7.17, 7.27 22,Trinity,___________________________ 10 7 5, 0.1, 7.0, 7.13, 6.96 23,Bowdoin,___________________________ 10 9 3, 0.0, 7.1, 7.10, 7.00 24,Oswego,____________________________ 16 6 1, 0.4, 6.6, 7.08, 7.55 25,Utica,_____________________________ 15 8 0, 0.3, 6.8, 7.08, 6.74 26,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 18 4 2, 0.6, 6.5, 7.06, 6.55 27,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 4 18 2, -0.6, 7.6, 7.00, 7.01 28,St Mary's,_________________________ 7 15 1, -0.3, 7.3, 6.99, 6.50 29,Castleton,_________________________ 14 9 2, 0.2, 6.8, 6.99, 7.15 30,St Olaf,___________________________ 6 16 1, -0.4, 7.4, 6.99, 7.24 31,Hamline,___________________________ 7 14 2, -0.3, 7.2, 6.95, 7.44 32,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 11 10 4, 0.0, 6.9, 6.89, 6.78 33,Connecticut College,_______________ 9 10 3, -0.0, 6.9, 6.88, 7.11 34,Wesleyan,__________________________ 8 10 4, -0.1, 7.0, 6.88, 6.87 35,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 8 14 1, -0.3, 7.1, 6.85, 6.79 36,Augsburg,__________________________ 7 16 0, -0.4, 7.2, 6.83, 6.93 37,Colby,_____________________________ 8 12 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.81, 6.93 38,Potsdam,___________________________ 12 8 3, 0.2, 6.6, 6.81, 6.76 39,St Benedict,_______________________ 7 16 0, -0.4, 7.2, 6.78, 7.21 40,Manhattanville,____________________ 8 13 4, -0.2, 7.0, 6.76, 6.61 41,Hamilton,__________________________ 7 13 2, -0.3, 7.0, 6.76, 6.55 42,Marian,____________________________ 5 16 1, -0.5, 7.3, 6.75, 6.43 43,Southern Maine,____________________ 10 14 1, -0.2, 6.7, 6.58, 6.11 44,University of New England,_________ 8 11 4, -0.1, 6.6, 6.48, 6.74 45,Neumann,___________________________ 6 15 2, -0.4, 6.8, 6.37, 6.18 46,Finlandia,_________________________ 1 20 0, -0.9, 7.3, 6.37, 6.63 47,Canton,____________________________ 8 14 3, -0.2, 6.5, 6.30, 6.59 48,Stevenson,_________________________ 8 16 1, -0.3, 6.6, 6.27, 6.29 49,Sacred Heart,______________________ 3 12 6, -0.4, 6.7, 6.25, 6.27 50,Buffalo State,_____________________ 3 19 1, -0.7, 6.9, 6.22, 6.39 51,Chatham,___________________________ 4 17 2, -0.6, 6.8, 6.21, 6.29 52,Plymouth State,____________________ 5 18 2, -0.5, 6.7, 6.20, 6.65 53,Nichols,___________________________ 4 21 0, -0.7, 6.9, 6.20, 6.14 54,Cortland,__________________________ 2 19 2, -0.7, 6.9, 6.15, 6.27 55,St Michael's,______________________ 3 18 3, -0.6, 6.8, 6.14, 6.37 56,New England College,_______________ 3 22 0, -0.8, 6.8, 6.00, 6.15 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Women's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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