Based on Scores (sorted by team) through February 9, 2014 courtesy of USCHO.com . Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Minimum 5 Scores vs. D1 Competition to be Ranked Maximum Goal Differential = 4 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 15 4 3, 1.6, 8.6, 10.26, 10.20 2,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 18 1 1, 2.7, 6.9, 9.65, 9.64 3,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 16 4 2, 1.0, 8.4, 9.46, 10.09 4,Bethel,____________________________ 14 5 2, 1.5, 7.8, 9.30, 9.04 5,Middlebury,________________________ 16 1 3, 1.8, 7.5, 9.29, 8.81 6,Lake Forest,_______________________ 12 5 3, 1.4, 7.7, 9.15, 9.55 7,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 14 4 4, 1.4, 7.7, 9.12, 9.85 8,Elmira,____________________________ 16 4 1, 1.9, 7.2, 9.09, 8.96 9,St Scholastica,____________________ 13 6 3, 1.1, 7.8, 8.94, 8.74 10,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 14 5 2, 1.2, 7.7, 8.92, 7.72 11,St Norbert,________________________ 15 6 2, 1.2, 7.7, 8.84, 9.70 12,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 4 3, 1.0, 7.8, 8.83, 9.21 13,Norwich,___________________________ 19 3 0, 2.0, 6.8, 8.82, 9.08 14,Adrian,____________________________ 17 5 0, 1.8, 6.9, 8.72, 7.99 15,Amherst,___________________________ 11 5 4, 1.2, 7.3, 8.55, 8.59 16,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 9 8 4, -0.0, 8.1, 8.10, 8.83 17,St Anselm,_________________________ 19 3 0, 1.7, 6.2, 7.97, 7.39 18,Trinity,___________________________ 10 6 4, 0.8, 6.8, 7.58, 7.93 19,Williams,__________________________ 11 7 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.52, 8.11 20,Utica,_____________________________ 15 6 0, 1.0, 6.4, 7.43, 7.28 21,Castleton,_________________________ 13 8 2, 1.1, 6.2, 7.35, 7.51 22,Oswego,____________________________ 14 6 1, 1.4, 6.0, 7.34, 7.53 23,St Mary's,_________________________ 6 14 1, -0.6, 7.9, 7.32, 5.69 24,Holy Cross,________________________ 13 7 1, 0.7, 6.6, 7.25, 7.44 25,Augsburg,__________________________ 7 14 0, -0.6, 7.7, 7.11, 8.28 26,Connecticut College,_______________ 8 10 3, 0.1, 6.9, 7.06, 7.68 27,Bowdoin,___________________________ 9 8 3, -0.3, 7.2, 6.99, 7.50 28,Salve Regina,______________________ 13 6 4, 0.5, 6.4, 6.96, 7.21 29,St Catherine,______________________ 10 9 1, -0.5, 7.4, 6.93, 7.93 30,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 4 17 2, -1.6, 8.5, 6.90, 6.15 31,Hamilton,__________________________ 6 12 2, -0.5, 7.2, 6.75, 6.16 32,Wesleyan,__________________________ 7 9 4, -0.1, 6.9, 6.74, 7.40 33,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 6 14 1, -0.9, 7.6, 6.70, 6.14 34,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 17 3 1, 1.5, 5.2, 6.68, 5.87 35,St Olaf,___________________________ 5 15 1, -1.5, 8.2, 6.67, 6.43 36,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 10 9 4, 0.0, 6.5, 6.53, 6.75 37,Manhattanville,____________________ 8 11 4, -0.3, 6.8, 6.52, 6.57 38,Colby,_____________________________ 6 11 2, -0.6, 7.1, 6.47, 5.21 39,Marian,____________________________ 5 14 1, -1.4, 7.9, 6.46, 5.90 40,Hamline,___________________________ 5 14 2, -1.3, 7.7, 6.36, 5.90 41,St Benedict,_______________________ 7 14 0, -1.1, 7.3, 6.21, 7.70 42,Potsdam,___________________________ 11 7 3, -0.1, 6.2, 6.15, 5.97 43,Southern Maine,____________________ 10 12 1, -0.4, 6.1, 5.62, 4.39 44,Neumann,___________________________ 5 14 1, -1.3, 6.6, 5.31, 4.18 45,University of New England,_________ 6 11 4, -0.7, 5.8, 5.14, 4.32 46,Finlandia,_________________________ 1 19 0, -3.0, 8.1, 5.05, 5.55 47,Stevenson,_________________________ 8 14 1, -0.8, 5.8, 5.02, 5.81 48,Chatham,___________________________ 4 15 2, -1.1, 6.1, 5.02, 4.96 49,Canton,____________________________ 7 12 3, -0.8, 5.6, 4.88, 5.10 50,Cortland,__________________________ 2 17 2, -1.9, 6.6, 4.75, 5.26 51,Sacred Heart,______________________ 3 11 5, -1.1, 5.8, 4.72, 5.54 52,St Michael's,______________________ 2 16 3, -1.5, 6.2, 4.63, 4.28 53,Buffalo State,_____________________ 2 19 0, -2.5, 7.1, 4.58, 5.45 54,Nichols,___________________________ 4 19 0, -2.0, 6.4, 4.40, 4.94 55,Plymouth State,____________________ 4 16 2, -1.6, 5.9, 4.32, 4.93 56,New England College,_______________ 3 20 0, -2.3, 6.2, 3.90, 4.13 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 15 4 3, 0.5, 7.6, 8.09, 8.25 2,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 16 4 2, 0.5, 7.5, 8.03, 7.92 3,Middlebury,________________________ 16 1 3, 0.8, 7.1, 7.88, 7.89 4,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 18 1 1, 0.8, 7.0, 7.81, 7.89 5,St Thomas,_________________________ 14 4 3, 0.5, 7.3, 7.77, 8.05 6,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 14 4 4, 0.5, 7.2, 7.70, 7.72 7,Bethel,____________________________ 14 5 2, 0.4, 7.3, 7.69, 7.56 8,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 14 5 2, 0.4, 7.3, 7.69, 7.16 9,Norwich,___________________________ 19 3 0, 0.7, 6.9, 7.67, 7.64 10,Elmira,____________________________ 16 4 1, 0.6, 7.0, 7.61, 7.59 11,St Norbert,________________________ 15 6 2, 0.4, 7.1, 7.54, 7.66 12,St Anselm,_________________________ 19 3 0, 0.7, 6.8, 7.53, 7.61 13,Lake Forest,_______________________ 12 5 3, 0.3, 7.2, 7.52, 7.84 14,St Scholastica,____________________ 13 6 3, 0.3, 7.2, 7.50, 7.45 15,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 9 8 4, 0.0, 7.4, 7.45, 7.69 16,Adrian,____________________________ 17 5 0, 0.5, 6.9, 7.44, 7.01 17,Amherst,___________________________ 11 5 4, 0.3, 7.1, 7.40, 7.17 18,Williams,__________________________ 11 7 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.21, 7.59 19,Holy Cross,________________________ 13 7 1, 0.3, 6.9, 7.20, 7.06 20,Utica,_____________________________ 15 6 0, 0.4, 6.7, 7.18, 7.19 21,Trinity,___________________________ 10 6 4, 0.2, 7.0, 7.18, 7.23 22,St Catherine,______________________ 10 9 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.17, 7.31 23,Bowdoin,___________________________ 9 8 3, 0.1, 7.1, 7.17, 7.13 24,Salve Regina,______________________ 13 6 4, 0.3, 6.9, 7.16, 7.13 25,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 17 3 1, 0.7, 6.4, 7.10, 6.88 26,Castleton,_________________________ 13 8 2, 0.2, 6.8, 7.00, 7.06 27,Oswego,____________________________ 14 6 1, 0.4, 6.6, 6.99, 7.11 28,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 4 17 2, -0.6, 7.5, 6.96, 6.89 29,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 10 9 4, 0.0, 6.9, 6.95, 7.11 30,St Olaf,___________________________ 5 15 1, -0.5, 7.4, 6.94, 6.89 31,St Mary's,_________________________ 6 14 1, -0.4, 7.3, 6.93, 6.47 32,Wesleyan,__________________________ 7 9 4, -0.1, 7.0, 6.89, 6.90 33,Connecticut College,_______________ 8 10 3, -0.1, 7.0, 6.89, 7.29 34,Augsburg,__________________________ 7 14 0, -0.3, 7.2, 6.89, 7.17 35,Potsdam,___________________________ 11 7 3, 0.2, 6.7, 6.84, 7.09 36,Hamline,___________________________ 5 14 2, -0.4, 7.3, 6.84, 6.87 37,Manhattanville,____________________ 8 11 4, -0.1, 7.0, 6.84, 6.86 38,Colby,_____________________________ 6 11 2, -0.3, 7.1, 6.81, 6.43 39,Marian,____________________________ 5 14 1, -0.5, 7.3, 6.80, 6.69 40,St Benedict,_______________________ 7 14 0, -0.3, 7.1, 6.76, 7.45 41,Hamilton,__________________________ 6 12 2, -0.3, 7.0, 6.74, 6.53 42,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 6 14 1, -0.4, 7.1, 6.74, 6.47 43,Southern Maine,____________________ 10 12 1, -0.1, 6.7, 6.62, 6.21 44,Neumann,___________________________ 5 14 1, -0.5, 6.9, 6.41, 6.00 45,University of New England,_________ 6 11 4, -0.2, 6.6, 6.40, 6.31 46,Finlandia,_________________________ 1 19 0, -0.9, 7.2, 6.34, 6.59 47,Stevenson,_________________________ 8 14 1, -0.3, 6.6, 6.33, 6.74 48,Canton,____________________________ 7 12 3, -0.2, 6.5, 6.28, 6.40 49,Sacred Heart,______________________ 3 11 5, -0.4, 6.6, 6.22, 6.19 50,Nichols,___________________________ 4 19 0, -0.7, 6.9, 6.21, 6.44 51,Buffalo State,_____________________ 2 19 0, -0.8, 7.0, 6.17, 6.41 52,Chatham,___________________________ 4 15 2, -0.5, 6.7, 6.16, 5.87 53,St Michael's,______________________ 2 16 3, -0.7, 6.8, 6.14, 6.15 54,Plymouth State,____________________ 4 16 2, -0.5, 6.7, 6.13, 6.40 55,Cortland,__________________________ 2 17 2, -0.7, 6.8, 6.12, 6.01 56,New England College,_______________ 3 20 0, -0.7, 6.8, 6.02, 6.19 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 4. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Women's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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