Scores (sorted by team) through February 1, 2015 courtesy of USCHO.com . Disclaimer: The D3 rankings are new and it is unclear to me how well connected the East/West schedules are and therefore still unclear how accurate the relative rankings between regions are. Previous Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. Maximum Goal Differential = 4 2013 National Champions: Wisconsin-Eau Claire See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Wisconsin-Stevens Point,___________ 15 4 0, 1.6, 8.0, 9.57, 9.53 2,St Norbert,________________________ 14 4 2, 1.9, 7.6, 9.48, 8.14 3,Trinity,___________________________ 15 2 1, 2.0, 7.4, 9.43, 9.81 4,Adrian,____________________________ 15 3 3, 1.7, 7.6, 9.31, 9.20 5,Wisconsin-Eau Claire,______________ 12 5 2, 1.3, 8.0, 9.28, 9.08 6,Oswego,____________________________ 13 2 3, 2.0, 7.3, 9.27, 8.58 7,Norwich,___________________________ 18 2 1, 2.6, 6.6, 9.26, 8.76 8,St Thomas,_________________________ 12 4 3, 1.3, 7.9, 9.17, 9.33 9,Wisconsin-River Falls,_____________ 16 4 1, 1.4, 7.7, 9.09, 9.14 10,Hobart,____________________________ 14 6 0, 1.2, 7.7, 8.97, 8.75 11,Amherst,___________________________ 13 3 2, 1.1, 7.7, 8.83, 8.70 12,Plattsburgh,_______________________ 14 5 1, 1.3, 7.5, 8.81, 7.46 13,Lake Forest,_______________________ 13 3 5, 1.4, 7.3, 8.72, 9.89 14,Nazareth,__________________________ 10 7 3, 0.3, 8.2, 8.59, 10.19 15,St John's,_________________________ 9 5 5, 0.5, 7.9, 8.43, 7.33 16,Babson,____________________________ 15 4 2, 1.8, 6.6, 8.42, 7.42 17,Williams,__________________________ 12 4 2, 0.9, 7.5, 8.41, 9.28 18,Concordia (Minn),__________________ 11 7 3, 0.6, 7.8, 8.41, 8.81 19,Utica,_____________________________ 10 6 4, 0.6, 7.8, 8.39, 7.46 20,Massachusetts-Boston,______________ 17 3 1, 1.5, 6.6, 8.13, 8.05 21,Bowdoin,___________________________ 10 5 3, 1.2, 7.0, 8.13, 7.28 22,St Mary's,_________________________ 10 7 2, 0.7, 7.4, 8.06, 8.78 23,Augsburg,__________________________ 9 10 0, -0.1, 8.1, 8.03, 7.51 24,Neumann,___________________________ 9 7 4, 0.3, 7.7, 8.02, 8.34 25,Elmira,____________________________ 9 8 3, 0.3, 7.8, 8.02, 7.15 26,Connecticut College,_______________ 9 7 2, 0.3, 7.6, 7.98, 8.54 27,Geneseo,___________________________ 9 8 3, 0.5, 7.5, 7.98, 7.58 28,Milwaukee School of Engineering,___ 13 8 0, 0.7, 7.3, 7.97, 8.11 29,St Scholastica,____________________ 10 8 3, 0.5, 7.3, 7.80, 7.25 30,Hamline,___________________________ 8 7 4, -0.3, 8.0, 7.77, 7.95 31,Hamilton,__________________________ 7 7 4, 0.3, 7.5, 7.75, 7.51 32,Brockport,_________________________ 9 8 2, 0.3, 7.4, 7.73, 7.40 33,Nichols,___________________________ 13 3 2, 1.8, 5.8, 7.56, 8.99 34,Middlebury,________________________ 7 8 3, -0.3, 7.8, 7.54, 7.77 35,Marian,____________________________ 9 11 1, -0.3, 7.7, 7.45, 7.24 36,Gustavus Adolphus,_________________ 6 8 7, -0.2, 7.6, 7.40, 8.21 37,Wisconsin-Superior,________________ 7 14 0, -0.3, 7.6, 7.28, 6.47 38,Manhattanville,____________________ 7 9 4, -0.4, 7.5, 7.09, 7.24 39,Wisconsin-Stout,___________________ 8 10 1, -0.5, 7.6, 7.03, 8.42 40,Morrisville,_______________________ 7 8 5, -0.3, 7.2, 6.96, 6.90 41,Buffalo State,_____________________ 7 10 2, -1.0, 7.9, 6.87, 7.13 42,Johnson and Wales,_________________ 11 7 1, 0.9, 5.9, 6.77, 6.67 43,Tufts,_____________________________ 7 10 1, -0.7, 7.5, 6.75, 7.36 44,Colby,_____________________________ 5 11 2, -0.7, 7.4, 6.72, 6.37 45,Potsdam,___________________________ 7 9 3, -0.5, 7.1, 6.66, 6.93 46,St Olaf,___________________________ 6 13 2, -1.0, 7.6, 6.60, 6.34 47,Cortland,__________________________ 7 9 3, -0.3, 6.8, 6.52, 5.41 48,Castleton,_________________________ 7 13 0, -0.5, 7.0, 6.51, 6.79 49,Curry,_____________________________ 9 6 2, 0.2, 6.3, 6.49, 6.86 50,New England College,_______________ 8 10 4, -0.2, 6.7, 6.48, 6.87 51,Salve Regina,______________________ 7 8 2, 0.1, 6.3, 6.37, 6.15 52,Lawrence,__________________________ 6 14 1, -1.4, 7.8, 6.36, 6.00 53,Fredonia,__________________________ 4 10 5, -1.0, 7.2, 6.25, 5.50 54,Concordia (Wis),___________________ 6 15 0, -1.2, 7.3, 6.13, 5.56 55,Northland,_________________________ 3 14 4, -1.5, 7.6, 6.11, 6.83 56,Stonehill,_________________________ 10 5 3, 0.8, 5.2, 6.04, 6.46 57,University of New England,_________ 7 11 1, -0.7, 6.7, 6.01, 6.60 58,Plymouth State,____________________ 9 7 3, 0.3, 5.7, 5.99, 4.67 59,St Anselm,_________________________ 6 12 2, -0.8, 6.6, 5.90, 6.06 60,Bethel,____________________________ 2 15 2, -2.0, 7.9, 5.89, 4.98 61,Canton,____________________________ 7 12 1, -0.5, 6.3, 5.84, 5.90 62,Suffolk,___________________________ 10 6 1, 0.2, 5.5, 5.76, 4.92 63,St Michael's,______________________ 6 12 2, -0.8, 6.5, 5.69, 4.22 64,Finlandia,_________________________ 4 16 1, -2.0, 7.6, 5.62, 6.73 65,Wesleyan,__________________________ 2 16 0, -1.9, 7.5, 5.59, 5.49 66,Salem State,_______________________ 10 8 1, 0.3, 5.2, 5.49, 6.25 67,Wentworth,_________________________ 8 8 2, -0.6, 6.0, 5.46, 5.52 68,Skidmore,__________________________ 4 14 3, -1.4, 6.8, 5.41, 6.19 69,So New Hampshire,__________________ 9 9 1, -0.2, 5.5, 5.24, 4.81 70,Fitchburg State,___________________ 8 8 2, 0.3, 4.9, 5.21, 6.26 71,Aurora,____________________________ 1 15 1, -2.4, 7.5, 5.05, 4.69 72,Assumption,________________________ 7 13 0, -0.3, 5.2, 4.87, 4.88 73,Southern Maine,____________________ 5 14 0, -2.1, 6.9, 4.86, 5.24 74,Massachusetts-Dartmouth,___________ 6 11 2, -0.8, 5.6, 4.78, 6.65 75,Westfield State,___________________ 9 9 0, -0.3, 4.9, 4.54, 2.54 76,Becker,____________________________ 4 14 0, -1.6, 5.7, 4.12, 4.42 77,Western New England,_______________ 2 12 3, -1.6, 5.8, 4.12, 4.76 78,Franklin Pierce,___________________ 3 15 0, -2.1, 5.8, 3.71, 3.09 79,Worcester State,___________________ 3 12 2, -1.4, 4.9, 3.49, 3.96 80,Framingham State,__________________ 3 12 2, -1.6, 5.0, 3.31, 2.56 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Minnesota State,___________________ 21 5 1, 0.6, 7.1, 7.70, 7.64 2,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 16 7 3, 0.3, 7.2, 7.58, 7.39 3,Boston University,_________________ 16 4 4, 0.5, 7.1, 7.57, 7.80 4,North Dakota,______________________ 19 6 2, 0.5, 7.1, 7.55, 7.51 5,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 20 7 1, 0.5, 7.1, 7.53, 7.62 6,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 15 10 1, 0.2, 7.3, 7.53, 7.10 7,Bowling Green,_____________________ 15 6 5, 0.3, 7.1, 7.47, 7.06 8,Miami,_____________________________ 15 9 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.46, 6.92 9,Denver,____________________________ 15 9 1, 0.2, 7.2, 7.45, 7.64 10,Harvard,___________________________ 12 5 2, 0.4, 7.1, 7.42, 6.90 11,Boston College,____________________ 16 8 2, 0.3, 7.1, 7.38, 7.78 12,Massachusetts-Lowell,______________ 16 8 3, 0.3, 7.1, 7.37, 6.75 13,Providence,________________________ 16 9 1, 0.3, 7.1, 7.35, 6.89 14,Quinnipiac,________________________ 16 8 2, 0.3, 7.0, 7.32, 7.05 15,Michigan,__________________________ 15 8 0, 0.3, 7.0, 7.31, 7.46 16,Vermont,___________________________ 15 9 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.27, 6.52 17,St Cloud State,____________________ 12 13 1, -0.0, 7.3, 7.24, 7.26 18,Merrimack,_________________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 7.0, 7.24, 6.71 19,Yale,______________________________ 12 6 3, 0.3, 6.9, 7.23, 6.87 20,Minnesota,_________________________ 12 9 3, 0.1, 7.1, 7.23, 7.01 21,Western Michigan,__________________ 11 10 4, 0.0, 7.2, 7.22, 7.60 22,Penn State,________________________ 13 7 4, 0.3, 7.0, 7.22, 7.68 23,Colgate,___________________________ 14 9 3, 0.2, 7.0, 7.21, 6.96 24,Bemidji State,_____________________ 10 12 4, -0.1, 7.2, 7.17, 7.78 25,St Lawrence,_______________________ 14 10 2, 0.2, 7.0, 7.17, 8.03 26,Cornell,___________________________ 9 9 3, 0.0, 7.1, 7.14, 7.14 27,Northeastern,______________________ 10 11 4, -0.0, 7.2, 7.13, 7.54 28,Northern Michigan,_________________ 11 9 6, 0.1, 7.0, 7.10, 6.93 29,Dartmouth,_________________________ 9 8 4, 0.0, 7.0, 7.07, 7.42 30,Alaska,____________________________ 12 13 1, -0.0, 7.1, 7.07, 6.40 31,Robert Morris,_____________________ 19 5 4, 0.5, 6.5, 7.05, 7.45 32,Union,_____________________________ 13 11 2, 0.1, 7.0, 7.04, 6.92 33,Michigan State,____________________ 10 11 2, -0.0, 7.0, 6.96, 7.50 34,Clarkson,__________________________ 10 12 4, -0.1, 7.0, 6.95, 7.27 35,Ferris State,______________________ 11 15 1, -0.1, 7.1, 6.94, 6.90 36,Connecticut,_______________________ 8 12 6, -0.2, 7.1, 6.91, 6.75 37,Ohio State,________________________ 7 13 2, -0.3, 7.2, 6.89, 6.54 38,Notre Dame,________________________ 11 14 3, -0.1, 7.0, 6.88, 6.77 39,New Hampshire,_____________________ 9 15 2, -0.2, 7.1, 6.85, 6.61 40,Maine,_____________________________ 10 16 2, -0.2, 7.0, 6.80, 7.38 41,Rensselaer,________________________ 9 18 1, -0.3, 7.1, 6.79, 7.18 42,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 7 18 3, -0.4, 7.1, 6.74, 7.09 43,Mercyhurst,________________________ 12 10 4, 0.1, 6.7, 6.73, 6.13 44,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 7 13 4, -0.3, 7.0, 6.73, 6.86 45,Lake Superior,_____________________ 7 20 1, -0.5, 7.2, 6.72, 7.59 46,Colorado College,__________________ 5 18 1, -0.5, 7.3, 6.72, 6.43 47,Massachusetts,_____________________ 8 17 1, -0.3, 7.1, 6.71, 7.15 48,Bentley,___________________________ 13 11 3, 0.1, 6.6, 6.70, 6.84 49,Canisius,__________________________ 12 8 6, 0.2, 6.5, 6.67, 7.21 50,Wisconsin,_________________________ 2 16 4, -0.6, 7.2, 6.60, 6.46 51,Air Force,_________________________ 11 15 3, -0.1, 6.7, 6.55, 6.70 52,RIT,_______________________________ 10 12 4, -0.1, 6.6, 6.54, 6.60 53,Holy Cross,________________________ 10 12 5, -0.1, 6.6, 6.50, 6.35 54,Brown,_____________________________ 4 16 1, -0.6, 7.1, 6.49, 6.22 55,Princeton,_________________________ 3 15 2, -0.6, 7.1, 6.46, 6.33 56,Sacred Heart,______________________ 7 15 6, -0.3, 6.6, 6.36, 6.45 57,American International,____________ 3 18 7, -0.5, 6.7, 6.13, 5.97 58,Army,______________________________ 6 18 2, -0.5, 6.6, 6.12, 5.93 59,Niagara,___________________________ 3 21 2, -0.7, 6.7, 5.97, 5.78 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . Links to other ratings: High School Rankings for 25 States High School National Rankings New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 USHL NAHL ACHA College Club USHSHO.com High School Ice Hockey Forums
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