Link to the 2004-2005 Final Ranking . All Division 1 Men's Scores for this season, sorted by team. Scores through November 7, 2005 from USCHO.com . New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting. The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Games that go to shootouts for decision are considered ties for ratings purposes. Actually, there are two different rankings listed below. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. Links to other ratings: CT IA IL IN MA MD MD-VA ME MI MN MN-WI-ND MO ND Northeast NH NJ NY WNY Club OH PA-E PA-W RI VA VT WI wWI USA New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1 Receive email when this page changes Maximum Goal Differential = 7
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RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Michigan,__________________________ 7 1 1, 2.1, 7.7, 9.77 2,Wisconsin,_________________________ 6 1 1, 2.0, 7.4, 9.44 3,Michigan State,____________________ 5 1 2, 1.5, 7.9, 9.38 4,Maine,_____________________________ 8 2 0, 1.9, 7.4, 9.34, 8.97 5,Colorado College,__________________ 9 1 0, 2.2, 6.8, 9.01, 9.66 6,Colgate,___________________________ 5 1 1, 2.7, 6.3, 8.97 7,Cornell,___________________________ 3 1 0, 1.0, 7.6, 8.58 8,St. Lawrence,______________________ 6 2 0, 1.3, 7.2, 8.50 9,Lake Superior,_____________________ 3 2 3, 0.9, 7.6, 8.45 10,Quinnipiac,________________________ 8 2 0, 2.1, 6.3, 8.41, 8.24 11,Northern Michigan,_________________ 5 3 0, 0.5, 7.8, 8.30 12,Denver,____________________________ 5 3 0, 0.8, 7.4, 8.18 13,Boston College,____________________ 3 2 1, 0.5, 7.5, 8.05 14,Vermont,___________________________ 7 1 0, 1.8, 6.2, 7.94 15,Providence,________________________ 5 3 0, 1.0, 6.9, 7.90 16,Bemidji State,_____________________ 5 1 0, 1.7, 6.2, 7.88 17,Alaska-Fairbanks,__________________ 4 2 2, 0.3, 7.6, 7.81 18,North Dakota,______________________ 5 4 1, 0.0, 7.8, 7.75, 6.93 19,Mercyhurst,________________________ 5 1 0, 2.7, 5.1, 7.75 20,Miami,_____________________________ 5 1 0, 1.7, 6.0, 7.69 21,Clarkson,__________________________ 5 2 1, 1.6, 6.0, 7.64 22,St. Cloud State,___________________ 2 5 1, -1.0, 8.5, 7.48 23,Boston University,_________________ 3 2 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.43 24,New Hampshire,_____________________ 4 3 1, 0.8, 6.6, 7.39 25,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 2 2 0, -0.5, 7.9, 7.35 26,Ferris State,______________________ 2 2 4, -0.1, 7.4, 7.27 27,Harvard,___________________________ 2 1 0, 0.7, 6.5, 7.22 28,Minnesota,_________________________ 3 3 2, 0.4, 6.8, 7.16 29,Air Force,_________________________ 2 6 0, -0.6, 7.4, 6.78 30,Princeton,_________________________ 2 2 0, 0.5, 6.3, 6.78 31,Notre Dame,________________________ 1 5 0, -1.7, 8.4, 6.71 32,Ohio State,________________________ 2 5 1, -0.5, 7.0, 6.53 33,Massachusetts,_____________________ 1 6 0, -1.4, 7.8, 6.42 34,Niagara,___________________________ 4 3 1, 0.0, 6.4, 6.37 35,RIT,_______________________________ 3 5 0, -0.8, 7.1, 6.37 36,Rensselaer,________________________ 4 4 1, 0.0, 6.3, 6.31 37,Mass.-Lowell,______________________ 3 5 0, -0.9, 7.2, 6.28 38,Holy Cross,________________________ 4 1 0, 1.2, 5.1, 6.27 39,Robert Morris,_____________________ 2 4 0, 0.0, 6.2, 6.22 40,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 2 4 2, -1.1, 7.2, 6.09 41,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 2 5 1, -1.5, 7.5, 6.04 42,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 1 8 1, -1.6, 7.5, 5.89, 5.77 * ,Yale,______________________________ 0 2 0, -3.0, 8.8, 5.78 * ,Brown,_____________________________ 0 2 0, -3.0, 8.8, 5.78 45,Minnesota State,___________________ 1 6 1, -1.8, 7.5, 5.77 46,Western Michigan,__________________ 2 4 0, -1.3, 7.1, 5.76 47,Union,_____________________________ 3 4 1, -1.0, 6.7, 5.71 48,Bowling Green,_____________________ 2 4 1, -0.7, 6.4, 5.68 49,Merrimack,_________________________ 3 5 0, -1.4, 7.0, 5.60 50,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 2 4 0, -1.0, 6.4, 5.39 51,Sacred Heart,______________________ 2 2 1, 0.2, 5.1, 5.30 52,Connecticut,_______________________ 2 4 1, -1.1, 6.4, 5.28 53,Northeastern,______________________ 0 6 1, -2.3, 7.5, 5.23 54,Canisius,__________________________ 3 4 1, -0.5, 5.5, 5.04 55,Bentley,___________________________ 3 4 1, -1.8, 6.6, 4.87 56,Wayne State,_______________________ 0 5 1, -3.0, 7.5, 4.52 57,Dartmouth,_________________________ 0 3 0, -3.0, 7.5, 4.47 58,Army,______________________________ 0 7 1, -2.1, 6.3, 4.20 59,American Int'l,____________________ 0 4 0, -4.0, 8.1, 4.08 146 predicted correctly 42 predicted incorrectly Ties 19 Predict Pct 0.77660 The Goal Diff Limit is set at 7 The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). This was done because the NCAA has indicated that it does not want to consider goal differential in the selection process. Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Note that the current spread between #1 and #59 is about 2.0 . Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH .Maximum Goal Differential = 1
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Over 4000 registered members, HS message boards for over 30 states + midget, junior, college, and pro hockey forums! RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Michigan,__________________________ 7 1 1, 0.7, 7.2, 7.86 2,Wisconsin,_________________________ 6 1 1, 0.6, 7.2, 7.86 3,Michigan State,____________________ 5 1 2, 0.5, 7.3, 7.84 4,Maine,_____________________________ 8 2 0, 0.6, 7.2, 7.76, 7.65 5,Colorado College,__________________ 9 1 0, 0.8, 6.9, 7.67, 7.85 6,Cornell,___________________________ 3 1 0, 0.5, 7.1, 7.64 7,Vermont,___________________________ 7 1 0, 0.8, 6.9, 7.62 8,St. Lawrence,______________________ 6 2 0, 0.5, 7.1, 7.60 9,Alaska-Fairbanks,__________________ 4 2 2, 0.3, 7.2, 7.46 10,Bemidji State,_____________________ 5 1 0, 0.7, 6.8, 7.42 11,Northern Michigan,_________________ 5 3 0, 0.3, 7.2, 7.40 12,Boston University,_________________ 3 2 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.38 13,Quinnipiac,________________________ 8 2 0, 0.6, 6.8, 7.37, 7.43 14,Denver,____________________________ 5 3 0, 0.3, 7.1, 7.31 15,Alabama-Huntsville,________________ 2 2 0, 0.0, 7.3, 7.30 16,North Dakota,______________________ 5 4 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.29, 7.05 17,Miami,_____________________________ 5 1 0, 0.7, 6.6, 7.27 18,Boston College,____________________ 3 2 1, 0.2, 7.1, 7.25 19,Colgate,___________________________ 5 1 1, 0.6, 6.7, 7.24 20,Providence,________________________ 5 3 0, 0.3, 6.9, 7.20 21,Lake Superior,_____________________ 3 2 3, 0.1, 7.0, 7.17 22,Clarkson,__________________________ 5 2 1, 0.4, 6.8, 7.17 23,Mercyhurst,________________________ 5 1 0, 0.7, 6.5, 7.13 24,St. Cloud State,___________________ 2 5 1, -0.4, 7.5, 7.11 25,Ferris State,______________________ 2 2 4, 0.0, 7.0, 7.04 26,Niagara,___________________________ 4 3 1, 0.1, 6.9, 7.04 27,Minnesota,_________________________ 3 3 2, 0.0, 7.0, 7.02 28,Harvard,___________________________ 2 1 0, 0.3, 6.6, 6.95 29,Holy Cross,________________________ 4 1 0, 0.6, 6.3, 6.92 30,New Hampshire,_____________________ 4 3 1, 0.1, 6.8, 6.92 31,Alaska-Anchorage,__________________ 2 5 1, -0.4, 7.3, 6.92 32,Minnesota-Duluth,__________________ 2 4 2, -0.3, 7.1, 6.89 33,Union,_____________________________ 3 4 1, -0.1, 7.0, 6.87 34,Mass.-Lowell,______________________ 3 5 0, -0.3, 7.1, 6.86 35,RIT,_______________________________ 3 5 0, -0.3, 7.1, 6.84 36,Rensselaer,________________________ 4 4 1, 0.0, 6.8, 6.82 37,Merrimack,_________________________ 3 5 0, -0.3, 7.0, 6.78 38,Air Force,_________________________ 2 6 0, -0.5, 7.2, 6.75 39,Bentley,___________________________ 3 4 1, -0.1, 6.8, 6.68 40,Connecticut,_______________________ 2 4 1, -0.3, 6.9, 6.65 41,Minnesota State,___________________ 1 6 1, -0.6, 7.3, 6.63 42,Notre Dame,________________________ 1 5 0, -0.7, 7.3, 6.63 43,Sacred Heart,______________________ 2 2 1, 0.0, 6.6, 6.61 44,Ohio State,________________________ 2 5 1, -0.4, 7.0, 6.60 45,Princeton,_________________________ 2 2 0, 0.0, 6.5, 6.54 46,Massachusetts,_____________________ 1 6 0, -0.7, 7.3, 6.54 47,Western Michigan,__________________ 2 4 0, -0.3, 6.8, 6.51 48,Robert Morris,_____________________ 2 4 0, -0.3, 6.8, 6.50 49,Michigan Tech,_____________________ 1 8 1, -0.7, 7.2, 6.49, 6.36 * ,Yale,______________________________ 0 2 0, -1.0, 7.4, 6.44 * ,Brown,_____________________________ 0 2 0, -1.0, 7.4, 6.44 52,Bowling Green,_____________________ 2 4 1, -0.3, 6.7, 6.43 53,Wayne State,_______________________ 0 5 1, -0.8, 7.3, 6.42 54,Canisius,__________________________ 3 4 1, -0.1, 6.5, 6.40 55,Nebraska-Omaha,____________________ 2 4 0, -0.3, 6.7, 6.37 56,Northeastern,______________________ 0 6 1, -0.9, 7.2, 6.30 57,American Int'l,____________________ 0 4 0, -1.0, 7.2, 6.25 58,Dartmouth,_________________________ 0 3 0, -1.0, 7.0, 5.95 59,Army,______________________________ 0 7 1, -0.9, 6.8, 5.89 152 predicted correctly 36 predicted incorrectly Ties 19 Predict Pct 0.80851 The Goal Diff Limit is set at 1