2003-04 Maryland/Virginia High School Hockey Rankings
Scores (for at least one of the states) through 2/06/04
The accuracy of the ratings between states is open to some debate as it is dependent on the number of interstate
scores that link the state rankings together.
The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then
adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative
error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is
reached (convergence).
The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between
any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a
neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that due to goal
differential limits set in the ranking program these predicted goal differentials
are only accurate when comparing teams ranked within three goals of each other.
The differential between teams ranked farther apart becomes more and more
understated as the chosen teams become farther apart in the rankings.
A teams Total value only has meaning
in relation to other teams in the same list .
The Last 5 column is a simple average performance of that team in the last five
games based on current opponent Total values and goal differential (up to max allowed).
Obviously, the fewer games a team's ranking is based upon the less likely
that ranking is to be accurate.
* indicates teams with only two game scores used to calculate rating.
Links to other ratings:
CT IA IL IN MA MD MD-VA ME MI MN MN-WI-ND MO ND Northeast NH NJ NY WNY Club OH PA-E PA-W
RI VA VT WI wWI USA New England Prep Midget Minor AAA Midget Major AAA Men's NCAA D1
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RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5
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1,Gonzaga,MD,_________________________ 16 2 0, 2.7, 8.8, 11.47, 11.80
2,Archbishop Spalding,MD,_____________ 12 2 2, 2.3, 8.7, 10.99, 10.89
3,Mt. St. Joseph,MD,__________________ 7 2 0, 1.9, 8.9, 10.82
4,Landon,MD,__________________________ 2 1 1, 1.5, 9.2, 10.73
5,Georgetown Prep,MD,_________________ 9 2 0, 2.3, 8.3, 10.55, 9.08
6,Langley,VA,_________________________ 9 4 0, 1.5, 8.7, 10.24, 9.62
7,DeMatha,MD,_________________________ 8 8 3, -0.1, 10.2, 10.09, 10.60
8,Stonebridge,VA,_____________________ 7 2 0, 2.1, 7.9, 9.97
9,Old Mill,MD,________________________ 6 1 0, 2.6, 7.1, 9.70
10,St. Marys,MD,_______________________ 7 3 2, 1.3, 8.2, 9.53, 10.30
11,Paint Branch,MD,____________________ 2 1 0, 2.3, 7.2, 9.51
12,Queen Anne,MD,______________________ 8 0 0, 2.4, 7.0, 9.40
13,Hylton,VA,__________________________ 7 1 1, 2.1, 7.1, 9.25
14,North Stafford,VA,__________________ 6 3 2, 1.4, 7.9, 9.24, 10.34
15,Westfield,VA,_______________________ 7 2 0, 1.8, 7.4, 9.20
16,Forest Park,VA,_____________________ 11 3 3, 1.1, 8.1, 9.17, 8.46
17,Loudon Cty/Loudon Vly/Heritage,VA,__ 6 3 0, 1.0, 8.0, 8.96
18,Churchill,MD,_______________________ 2 3 0, -0.6, 9.5, 8.93
19,St. Albans,MD,______________________ 2 5 0, -1.7, 10.6, 8.91
20,Calvert Hall,MD,____________________ 13 5 1, 1.3, 7.2, 8.46, 7.48
21,Mt. St. Joseph II,MD,_______________ 3 1 0, 2.3, 6.2, 8.44
22,Osbourn Park,VA,____________________ 6 2 1, 0.9, 7.4, 8.32
23,Broad Run,VA,_______________________ 6 3 0, 1.2, 7.0, 8.18
24,Sts. Stephen & Agnes,MD,____________ 2 2 0, 0.8, 7.4, 8.12
25,Howard,MD,__________________________ 7 0 0, 2.9, 5.2, 8.10
26,Fallston,MD,________________________ 2 2 0, 0.8, 7.3, 8.09
27,Loyola,MD,__________________________ 5 6 1, -0.2, 8.2, 8.07, 7.91
28,Robinson,VA,________________________ 6 4 1, 0.7, 7.3, 8.02, 8.43
29,Thomas Johnson,MD,__________________ 5 2 0, 2.1, 5.7, 7.82
30,Centreville,VA,_____________________ 6 4 0, 1.2, 6.6, 7.80, 9.06
31,Bethesda-Chevy Chase,MD,____________ 5 0 0, 4.0, 3.8, 7.80
32,Sherwood,MD,________________________ 0 4 2, -2.2, 9.9, 7.69
33,Bishop O'Connell,VA,________________ 0 4 1, -2.4, 10.1, 7.67
34,Walter Johnson,MD,__________________ 4 2 0, 0.5, 7.1, 7.56
35,Gilman,MD,__________________________ 7 3 1, 1.6, 5.9, 7.53, 7.80
36,South River,MD,_____________________ 4 5 0, 0.2, 7.2, 7.44
37,St. Pauls,MD,_______________________ 2 1 1, 0.5, 6.9, 7.43
38,Madison/Marshall,VA,________________ 4 4 1, 0.1, 7.2, 7.36
39,Yorktown/W&L,VA,____________________ 7 3 0, 1.4, 5.9, 7.34, 7.83
40,Osbourn,VA,_________________________ 4 5 1, 0.1, 7.1, 7.25, 7.93
41,Woodbridge,VA,______________________ 2 3 1, -0.5, 7.6, 7.09
42,Severna Park,MD,____________________ 10 7 1, 0.3, 6.8, 7.06, 8.36
43,Good Counsel,MD,____________________ 2 6 0, -1.6, 8.6, 7.01
44,Paul VI,VA,_________________________ 6 5 0, 0.0, 6.9, 6.85, 5.69
45,Brunswick,MD,_______________________ 6 1 2, 1.8, 5.0, 6.78
46,Bowie,MD,___________________________ 6 7 0, -0.7, 7.4, 6.76, 7.21
47,Hayfield,VA,________________________ 7 7 0, -0.1, 6.7, 6.64, 6.66
48,DeMatha II,MD,______________________ 6 9 4, -0.5, 7.0, 6.56, 7.28
49,Walkersville,MD,____________________ 3 1 1, 1.2, 5.1, 6.33
50,Easton,MD,__________________________ 2 2 1, 0.0, 6.2, 6.25
51,Sts. Peter & Paul,MD,_______________ 4 2 0, 0.5, 5.7, 6.22
52,Broadneck,MD,_______________________ 2 4 1, -1.1, 7.3, 6.18
53,River Hill,MD,______________________ 3 3 1, 0.4, 5.6, 6.03
54,Oakton,VA,__________________________ 2 6 0, -1.5, 7.5, 6.02
55,Chantilly,VA,_______________________ 4 7 0, -1.3, 7.2, 5.97, 6.21
56,Gonzaga II,MD,______________________ 6 6 2, 0.1, 5.9, 5.96, 6.15
57,Woodson,VA,_________________________ 2 7 1, -1.3, 7.2, 5.95, 6.09
58,Bishop Ireton,VA,___________________ 2 8 0, -1.5, 7.4, 5.92, 5.42
59,Wooton,MD,__________________________ 0 5 0, -3.8, 9.7, 5.91
60,West Springfield,VA,________________ 5 6 0, -1.0, 6.9, 5.86, 5.77
61,Atholton,MD,________________________ 3 3 1, 0.7, 5.1, 5.86
62,Ryken,MD,___________________________ 4 4 2, -0.1, 5.9, 5.76, 6.04
63,Southern,MD,________________________ 2 7 0, -2.1, 7.6, 5.48
64,Westlake,MD,________________________ 2 3 0, -0.8, 6.0, 5.18
65,McLean,VA,__________________________ 2 6 0, -2.1, 7.2, 5.03
66,Hammond,MD,_________________________ 3 2 0, -0.4, 5.4, 4.96
67,Potomac Falls,VA,___________________ 1 8 0, -2.1, 6.9, 4.79
68,Herndon,VA,_________________________ 1 9 0, -2.5, 7.3, 4.77, 4.08
69,Lake Braddock/Fairfax,VA,___________ 2 7 0, -1.2, 6.0, 4.74
70,Archbishop Curley,MD,_______________ 2 9 0, -2.0, 6.7, 4.73, 4.09
71,Liganore,MD,________________________ 0 4 1, -2.6, 7.1, 4.50
72,Boys Latin,MD,______________________ 2 6 0, -2.1, 6.6, 4.43
73,Walt Whitman,MD,____________________ 4 2 0, 1.3, 3.1, 4.43
74,Roosevelt,MD,_______________________ 1 6 0, -2.1, 6.5, 4.34
75,Centennial,MD,______________________ 2 4 1, -1.3, 5.4, 4.08
76,Wilde Lake,MD,______________________ 2 3 0, -0.8, 4.9, 4.05
77,Potomac/Garfield/Colonial Forge,VA,_ 1 6 0, -3.0, 7.0, 4.00
78,St. Johns,MD,_______________________ 0 9 0, -3.7, 7.6, 3.97
79,Long Reach,MD,______________________ 2 5 2, -1.1, 5.0, 3.87
80,Urbana,MD,__________________________ 1 5 1, -1.7, 5.5, 3.80
81,Gaithersburg,MD,____________________ 2 1 0, 1.3, 2.5, 3.79
82,Stonewall,VA,_______________________ 0 9 0, -3.8, 7.4, 3.65
83,Springbrook,MD,_____________________ 3 3 0, 1.0, 2.3, 3.29
84,Blake,MD,___________________________ 4 0 1, 1.6, 1.6, 3.25
85,Magruder,MD,________________________ 2 4 0, -1.3, 4.4, 3.06
86,Severn,MD,__________________________ 0 7 0, -3.6, 6.5, 2.96
87,Glenelg,MD,_________________________ 1 5 0, -2.0, 4.7, 2.73
88,Washington International,MD,________ 0 3 0, -4.0, 6.4, 2.36
89,Mt. Hebron,MD,______________________ 0 6 0, -3.8, 4.5, 0.68
90,Blair,MD,___________________________ 0 6 0, -3.7, 3.7, 0.00
91,Damascus,MD,________________________ 0 4 1, -2.6, 2.5, -0.07
92,Montgomery,MD,______________________ 0 3 1, -3.0, 2.6, -0.44
334 predicted correctly
47 predicted incorrectly
Ties 28
Predict Pct 0.87664
The Goal Diff Limit is set at 4
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