Hi all,
I'll be attempting to keep a steady stream of computerized rankings flowing for both the Boys & Girls side of things this season. As in past years, the overall ranking/rating profiles will include North Dakota & Wisconsin Teams because of their interlocking schedules, which is fine because these additional games create a stronger mathematical network. There are two distinct algorithms that I will use in the Sportsoft package to compute the ratings profiles: (1) Least-Squares (LSQRank) and, (2) KRACH is based upon Bradley-Terry rankings, which is a probabilistic model for pairwise comparison. There are pros and cons to both methods. The pros when using a least-squares method is that (a) the results of the rating profile is easier to interpret for the average fan, (b) a numerical value for the uncertainty (standard error/deviation) is easily generated and reported, (c) individual and groups of games can be weighted differently, and (d) a reasonable estimate of a score differential can be predicted for future (unplayed) games based upon an earlier rating profile. The cons when using a least-squares method is that one does need actual game scores to process, which sometimes could introduce misleading data when the raw scores are not adjusted for game-time attributes such as power-play goals, empty-net goals, reduction in game length due to running time rules, etc. The pros when using the KRACH method are that one doe not need precise game scores, but only which team won, lost, or tied. The cons are that the KRACH rating profile is much harder to interpret since the rating profile numbers indicate a ratio with respect to expected outcomes (ie. if Team A were to play Team B a certain number of times, then Team A would win X games out of N). Also, there is not any good way to generate a numerical estimate of the uncertainty value in the KRACH profile. Both methods have a connectivity requirement, that is to say, that each team must be interconnected (indirectly) into the greater network by means of games played outside of their local conference or micro-network. This property allows us to generate a meaningful profile that includes all three states (MN, ND & WI) in the same rating profile.
As with all computerized numerical methods, the rating profiles become more precise as the hockey season advances toward the February playoffs and state tournaments. The first rating profile will not be able to be produced until state-wide connectivity is achieved, which is usually met by the time each team has played a minimum of 4 or 5 games each. The initial rating profiles will change incrementally week by week until each team has played 13 or so games. Towards the end of the season, game score differentials become much more predictable.
-enjoy the season, Doc
2021-22 MN Girls HS Computerized Rankings
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
Re: 2021-22 MN Girls HS Computerized Rankings
Need someone to double-check me on the list of teams for the Mn Girls.
I got 115 teams this year in the 16 sections combined, Is that correct?
Also , where does Fergus Falls land? in 8A or 8AA ?
I got 115 teams this year in the 16 sections combined, Is that correct?
Also , where does Fergus Falls land? in 8A or 8AA ?
Code: Select all
AlbertLea HS MN 1 A MSHSL
Austin HS MN 1 A MSHSL
Faribault HS MN 1 A MSHSL
Waseca HS MN 1 A MSHSL
Winona HS MN 1 A MSHSL
Hutchinson HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato HS MN 2 A MSHSL
MankatoEast HS MN 2 A MSHSL
MankatoWest HS MN 2 A MSHSL
MinnesotaRiver HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Waconia HS MN 2 A MSHSL
Fairmont HS MN 3 A MSHSL
Luverne HS MN 3 A MSHSL
Marshall HS MN 3 A MSHSL
NewUlm HS MN 3 A MSHSL
Windom HS MN 3 A MSHSL
Worthington HS MN 3 A MSHSL
ChisagoLakes HS MN 4 A MSHSL
RedWing HS MN 4 A MSHSL
Simley HS MN 4 A MSHSL
SouthStPaul HS MN 4 A MSHSL
TwoRivers/St.Paul HS MN 4 A MSHSL
Visitation HS MN 4 A MSHSL
HolyAngels HS MN 5 A MSHSL
Breck HS MN 5 A MSHSL
Delano/Rockford HS MN 5 A MSHSL
Minneapolis HS MN 5 A MSHSL
MoundWestonka HS MN 5 A MSHSL
Orono HS MN 5 A MSHSL
PineCityArea HS MN 5 A MSHSL
Breckenridge/Wahpeton HS MN 6 A MSHSL
Morris/BensonArea HS MN 6 A MSHSL
PrairieCentre HS MN 6 A MSHSL
NorthernLakes HS MN 6 A MSHSL
RiverLakes HS MN 6 A MSHSL
Wilmar HS MN 6 A MSHSL
Cloquet-Esko-Carlton HS MN 7 A MSHSL
RockRidge HS MN 7 A MSHSL
Hibbing/Chisholm HS MN 7 A MSHSL
DuluthMarshall HS MN 7 A MSHSL
MooseLakeArea HS MN 7 A MSHSL
Proctor/Hermantown HS MN 7 A MSHSL
NorthShore HS MN 7 A MSHSL
Crookston HS MN 8 A MSHSL
DetroitLakes HS MN 8 A MSHSL
EastGrandForks HS MN 8 A MSHSL
FergusFalls HS MN 8 A MSHSL
IternationalFalls HS MN 8 A MSHSL
ThiefRiverFalls HS MN 8 A MSHSL
Warroad HS MN 8 A MSHSL
Farmington HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
DodgeCounty HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
LakevilleNorth HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
LakevilleSouth HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
Northfield HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
Owatonna HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
RochesterCentury HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
RochesterMayo HS MN 1 AA MSHSL
BloomingtonJefferson HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
Chaska/Chanhassen HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
EdenPrairie HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
HolyFamily HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
Minnetonka HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
NewPrague HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
PriorLake HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
Shakopee HS MN 2 AA MSHSL
AppleValley HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Burnsville HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Cretin-DerhamHall HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Eagan HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Eastview HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Hastings HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
ParkofCottageGrove HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
Rosemount HS MN 3 AA MSHSL
EastRidge HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
GentryAcademy HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Hill-Murray HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Mahtomedi HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
NorthSt.Paul/Tartan HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Roseville HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Stillwater HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
WhiteBearLake HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Woodbury HS MN 4 AA MSHSL
Centennial/SpringLakePark HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
ChamplinPark/CoonRapids HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
Irondale/St.Anthony HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
MapleGrove HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
Moundsview HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
Osseo/ParkCenter HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
Rogers HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
NorthWrightCounty HS MN 5 AA MSHSL
Benilde-St.Margaret's HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Blake HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Edina HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Hopkins/Park HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
MinnehahaUnited HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Armstrong/Cooper HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Wayzata HS MN 6 AA MSHSL
Andover HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
Anoka HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
Blaine HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
Duluth HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
ElkRiver/Zimmerman HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
ForestLake HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
GrandRapids-Greenway HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
Princeton HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
NorthernTier HS MN 7 AA MSHSL
Alexandria HS MN x AA MSHSL
Bemidji HS MN x AA MSHSL
Brainerd/LittleFalls HS MN x AA MSHSL
Buffalo HS MN x AA MSHSL
Moorhead HS MN x AA MSHSL
Roseau HS MN x AA MSHSL
Sartell/SaukRapids HS MN x AA MSHSL
St.Cloud HS MN x AA MSHSL