PageStat 2019-20
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
PageStat 2019-20
Having a little problem, it would seem, on Twitter this week. So I'll post the current Top 20 here. Includes all games played through last night.
1. Andover
2. Blake
3. Eden Prairie
4. Hermantown
5. Moorhead
6. Hill-Murray
7. Rosemount
8, Lakeville South
9. St. Cloud Cathedral
10. Prior Lake
11. Benilde-St Margaret's
12. Edina
13. Cretin-Derham Hall
14. Minnetonka
15. Grand Rapids
16. Chaska
17. Wayzata
18. Warroad
19. East Grand Forks
20. Lakeville North
Other 7AA: Cloquet (#33), Duluth East (#36), Elk River (#43), Forest Lake (#51), Anoka (#101) Duluth Marshall (#114)
For its faults, QRF does have one interesting idea, and that is the tie-breaker. While I don't agree with the overall record being a tie-breaker, the head-to-head certainly should. I'll have some time in the off-season to take a closer look at how such a tie-breaker might affect how PageStat predicts section tournament games, and whether it's a success or crap. I would use only one tie-breaker--head-to-head. Otherwise, the PageStat rating would determine the seeding.
Lee
1. Andover
2. Blake
3. Eden Prairie
4. Hermantown
5. Moorhead
6. Hill-Murray
7. Rosemount
8, Lakeville South
9. St. Cloud Cathedral
10. Prior Lake
11. Benilde-St Margaret's
12. Edina
13. Cretin-Derham Hall
14. Minnetonka
15. Grand Rapids
16. Chaska
17. Wayzata
18. Warroad
19. East Grand Forks
20. Lakeville North
Other 7AA: Cloquet (#33), Duluth East (#36), Elk River (#43), Forest Lake (#51), Anoka (#101) Duluth Marshall (#114)
For its faults, QRF does have one interesting idea, and that is the tie-breaker. While I don't agree with the overall record being a tie-breaker, the head-to-head certainly should. I'll have some time in the off-season to take a closer look at how such a tie-breaker might affect how PageStat predicts section tournament games, and whether it's a success or crap. I would use only one tie-breaker--head-to-head. Otherwise, the PageStat rating would determine the seeding.
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
Re: PageStat 2019-20
Looks pretty reasonable to me
Notably absent WBL, where your formula properly ranked them lower earlier than anyone else if I recall right.
Notably absent WBL, where your formula properly ranked them lower earlier than anyone else if I recall right.
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
That 36th ranked SOS hurts. Their recent results hurt. If you start cold and end hot, PageStat will rate you higher than the reverse, due to the momentum factor built into the formula. This affects the Bears directly; their average game score in their first ten games was 19.63, and 18.96 in the most recent ten.
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
PageStat ratings by section
PageStat ratings by section. These will be the ratings used to predict section tournament games:
Sec. 1AA: (1) Lakeville South (2) Lakeville North (3) Hastings (4) Farmington (5) Roch. Century (6) Owatonna (7) Northfield (8 ) Roch. Mayo (9) Roch. J.M.
Sec. 2AA: (1) Eden Prairie (2) Prior Lake (3) Minnetonka (4) Chaska (5) Holy Family (6) Shakopee (7) New Prague (8 ) Chanhassen
Sec. 3AA: (1) Rosemount (2) St. Thomas Academy (3) Eagan (4) Burnsville (5) Eastview (6) Bloom. Jefferson (7) Park (C.G.) (8 ) Apple Valley
Sec. 4AA: (1) Hill-Murray (2) Stillwater (3) White Bear Lake (4) East Ridge (5) Mounds View (6) Woodbury (7) Roseville (8 ) Irondale
Sec. 5AA: (1) Maple Grove (2) Blaine (3) Centennial (4) Champlin Park (5) Totino Grace (6) Osseo (7) Coon Rapids (8 ) Spring Lake Park
Sec. 6AA: (1) Blake (2) Benilde-St. Margaret's (3) Edina (4) Cretin-Derham Hall (5) Wayzata (6) St. Louis Park (7) Holy Angels (8 ) Hopkins
Sec. 7AA: (1) Andover (2) Grand Rapids (3) Cloquet (4) Duluth East (5) Elk River (6) Forest Lake (7) Anoka (8 ) Duluth Marshall
Sec. 8AA: (1) Moorhead (2) St. Michael-Albertville (3) Roseau (4) St. Cloud (5) Brainerd (6) Buffalo (7) Rogers (8 ) Bemidji
Sec. 1A: (1) Dodge County (2) Mankato West (3) Mankato East (4) Faribault (5) Minnesota River (6) Albert Lea (7) Waseca (8 ) Winona (9) Rochester Lourdes (10) La Crescent (11) Austin
Sec. 2A: (1) Orono (2) Delano (3) Robb. Armstrong/Cooper (4) Breck (5) Mound Westonka (6) Minneapolis (7) Southwest Christian/Richfield (8 ) Bloom. Kennedy (9) Waconia (10) Providence Academy
Sec. 3A: (1) Hutchinson (2) New Ulm (3) Marshall (4) Litchfield (5) Luverne (6) Windom (7) Worthington (8 ) Willmar (9) Fairmont (10) Redwood Valley
Sec. 4A: (1) Mahtomedi (2) Gentry Academy (3) St. Paul Johnson (4) Tartan (5) South St. Paul (6) St. Paul Academy (7) Simley (8 ) Henry Sibley (9) St. Paul Highland Park (10) Red Wing
Sec. 5A: (1) Monticello (2) Pine City (3) North Branch (4) Princeton (5) St. Francis (6) Northern Lakes (7) Chisago Lakes (8 ) Sauk Rapids (9) Mora (10) Cambridge (11) Becker Big Lake (12) Moose Lake
Sec. 6A: (1) St. Cloud Cathedral (2) Alexandria (3) Little Falls (4) River Lakes (5) Sartell (6) Fergus Falls (7) Morris/Benson (8 ) Breckenridge (9) Wadena (10) Prairie Centre
Sec. 7A: (1) Hermantown (2) Duluth Denfeld (3) Greenway (4) Eveleth-Gilbert (5) Virginia (6) International Falls (7) Hibbing (8 ) Proctor (9) North Shore (11) Ely
Sec. 8A: (1) Warroad (2) East Grand Forks (3) Thief River Falls (4) Detroit Lakes (5) Kittson Central (6) Red Lake Falls (7) Crookston (8 ) Lake of the Woods (9) Park Rapids (10) Bagley
Lee
Sec. 1AA: (1) Lakeville South (2) Lakeville North (3) Hastings (4) Farmington (5) Roch. Century (6) Owatonna (7) Northfield (8 ) Roch. Mayo (9) Roch. J.M.
Sec. 2AA: (1) Eden Prairie (2) Prior Lake (3) Minnetonka (4) Chaska (5) Holy Family (6) Shakopee (7) New Prague (8 ) Chanhassen
Sec. 3AA: (1) Rosemount (2) St. Thomas Academy (3) Eagan (4) Burnsville (5) Eastview (6) Bloom. Jefferson (7) Park (C.G.) (8 ) Apple Valley
Sec. 4AA: (1) Hill-Murray (2) Stillwater (3) White Bear Lake (4) East Ridge (5) Mounds View (6) Woodbury (7) Roseville (8 ) Irondale
Sec. 5AA: (1) Maple Grove (2) Blaine (3) Centennial (4) Champlin Park (5) Totino Grace (6) Osseo (7) Coon Rapids (8 ) Spring Lake Park
Sec. 6AA: (1) Blake (2) Benilde-St. Margaret's (3) Edina (4) Cretin-Derham Hall (5) Wayzata (6) St. Louis Park (7) Holy Angels (8 ) Hopkins
Sec. 7AA: (1) Andover (2) Grand Rapids (3) Cloquet (4) Duluth East (5) Elk River (6) Forest Lake (7) Anoka (8 ) Duluth Marshall
Sec. 8AA: (1) Moorhead (2) St. Michael-Albertville (3) Roseau (4) St. Cloud (5) Brainerd (6) Buffalo (7) Rogers (8 ) Bemidji
Sec. 1A: (1) Dodge County (2) Mankato West (3) Mankato East (4) Faribault (5) Minnesota River (6) Albert Lea (7) Waseca (8 ) Winona (9) Rochester Lourdes (10) La Crescent (11) Austin
Sec. 2A: (1) Orono (2) Delano (3) Robb. Armstrong/Cooper (4) Breck (5) Mound Westonka (6) Minneapolis (7) Southwest Christian/Richfield (8 ) Bloom. Kennedy (9) Waconia (10) Providence Academy
Sec. 3A: (1) Hutchinson (2) New Ulm (3) Marshall (4) Litchfield (5) Luverne (6) Windom (7) Worthington (8 ) Willmar (9) Fairmont (10) Redwood Valley
Sec. 4A: (1) Mahtomedi (2) Gentry Academy (3) St. Paul Johnson (4) Tartan (5) South St. Paul (6) St. Paul Academy (7) Simley (8 ) Henry Sibley (9) St. Paul Highland Park (10) Red Wing
Sec. 5A: (1) Monticello (2) Pine City (3) North Branch (4) Princeton (5) St. Francis (6) Northern Lakes (7) Chisago Lakes (8 ) Sauk Rapids (9) Mora (10) Cambridge (11) Becker Big Lake (12) Moose Lake
Sec. 6A: (1) St. Cloud Cathedral (2) Alexandria (3) Little Falls (4) River Lakes (5) Sartell (6) Fergus Falls (7) Morris/Benson (8 ) Breckenridge (9) Wadena (10) Prairie Centre
Sec. 7A: (1) Hermantown (2) Duluth Denfeld (3) Greenway (4) Eveleth-Gilbert (5) Virginia (6) International Falls (7) Hibbing (8 ) Proctor (9) North Shore (11) Ely
Sec. 8A: (1) Warroad (2) East Grand Forks (3) Thief River Falls (4) Detroit Lakes (5) Kittson Central (6) Red Lake Falls (7) Crookston (8 ) Lake of the Woods (9) Park Rapids (10) Bagley
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: 2020 Section Tournaments
PageStat finds itself with an early +1 on the seedings after selecting (9) North Shore over (8) Hibbing on Saturday.
These are the upcoming agreements:
Tonight
(5) Duluth East over (4) Forest Lake in 7AA quarterfinals
(9) Willmar over (8) Fairmont in 3A first round
Other upcoming disagreements (so far)
(5) St. Thomas Academy over (4) Eastview in 3AA quarterfinals
(5) Champlin Park over (4) Totino-Grace in 5AA quarterfinals
(5) Detroit lakes over (4) Kittson Central in 8A quarterfinals
PageStat won by +10 last year, its best season to date. I don't predict the same success this year, but am looking to extend the winning streak to four years. Since 1999, PageStat is up by 46 games, winning 13 seasons, losing 7 and tying 1.
Good luck tonight to all teams!
Lee
These are the upcoming agreements:
Tonight
(5) Duluth East over (4) Forest Lake in 7AA quarterfinals
(9) Willmar over (8) Fairmont in 3A first round
Other upcoming disagreements (so far)
(5) St. Thomas Academy over (4) Eastview in 3AA quarterfinals
(5) Champlin Park over (4) Totino-Grace in 5AA quarterfinals
(5) Detroit lakes over (4) Kittson Central in 8A quarterfinals
PageStat won by +10 last year, its best season to date. I don't predict the same success this year, but am looking to extend the winning streak to four years. Since 1999, PageStat is up by 46 games, winning 13 seasons, losing 7 and tying 1.
Good luck tonight to all teams!
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
Re: PageStat 2019-20
Will be interesting to see how things unfold
If you get all 8 section winners right this year , you should ask 1 mill for the formula and cash out !
If you get all 8 section winners right this year , you should ask 1 mill for the formula and cash out !
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
It might be a nice addition to my retirement pensions
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
PageStat and the seedings are even after Forest lake beats Duluth East.
Lee
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
And with Fairmont beating Willmar in 3A, PageStat is down a game.
Lee
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
Re: PageStat 2019-20
There have to be situations where you look at page2stat and go ., I am thinking Willmar over Fairmont. I suppose there also have to be times when it is like taking candy from a baby.
Some interesting ones I picked out were Farmington at #4 vs the coaches at #6, but they can’t help (or hurt) unless they and Century or Owatonna upset their way to the finals. (The last time a Lakeville team wasn’t in the 1AA finals, 2005). STA at a 5 seed vs. your #2 in section with an offensively challenged Rosemount.
Some interesting ones I picked out were Farmington at #4 vs the coaches at #6, but they can’t help (or hurt) unless they and Century or Owatonna upset their way to the finals. (The last time a Lakeville team wasn’t in the 1AA finals, 2005). STA at a 5 seed vs. your #2 in section with an offensively challenged Rosemount.
Re: PageStat 2019-20
Lee
Do you have updated Pagestat calculations for SOS and ratings thru 2/15/20 ?
Thanks!
Do you have updated Pagestat calculations for SOS and ratings thru 2/15/20 ?
Thanks!
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
http://minnhock.com/ps2020.htm
For this week, the ratings were run a day early, because there were a few section games on Saturday.
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
Four disagreements tonight
(5) St. Thomas Academy over (4) Eastview in 3AA quarterfinals
(5) Champlin Park over (4) Totino-Grace in 5AA quarterfinals
(5) Princeton over (4) St. Francis in 5A quarterfinals
(5) Detroit lakes over (4) Kittson Central in 8A quarterfinals
Lee
(5) St. Thomas Academy over (4) Eastview in 3AA quarterfinals
(5) Champlin Park over (4) Totino-Grace in 5AA quarterfinals
(5) Princeton over (4) St. Francis in 5A quarterfinals
(5) Detroit lakes over (4) Kittson Central in 8A quarterfinals
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
PageStat went three for four on Thursday, only blowing the Champlin Park pick, to go up +1 on the seedings.
We have two disagreements today:
#3 Eagan over #2 Burnsville in the 3AA semifinal
#3 New Ulm over #2 Litchfield in the 3A final
There are some possible disagreements after today depending on the results of quarterfinal and semifinal games.
Lee
We have two disagreements today:
#3 Eagan over #2 Burnsville in the 3AA semifinal
#3 New Ulm over #2 Litchfield in the 3A final
There are some possible disagreements after today depending on the results of quarterfinal and semifinal games.
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
The seedings took both matches to grab a +1 lead on PageStat tonight.
Lee
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
Re: PageStat 2019-20
Lee , translate a little more for me please :
How many of the 32 AA qfinal winners did PS correctly predict ?
How many of the 14 semi winners so far ?
How many of the 32 AA qfinal winners did PS correctly predict ?
How many of the 14 semi winners so far ?
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
http://minnhock.com/boys2020.htm
It's all right here. Where the PS column reads "1", PageStat has picked the seeding underdog, otherwise it's picked the seeding favorite.
Overall it's 92-18, whereas the higher seeded teams are 93-17. I'd have to pick apart the data for AA/A, and anyone can do that as easily as I
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
PageStat takes the final two disagreements (Maple Grove over Blaine, STA over Burnsville) to finish up +1 on the seedings. After last year's +10 margin, this feels like a moral loss.
Offseason? More analysis and a hard look at a PageStat tiebreaker such as QRF uses. Probably make the system worse but one never knows.
Lee
Offseason? More analysis and a hard look at a PageStat tiebreaker such as QRF uses. Probably make the system worse but one never knows.
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
-
- Posts: 81
- Joined: Wed Mar 02, 2016 1:56 am
Re: PageStat 2019-20
Looks like Hal has Andover beating Blake and Hermantown over Warroad in the respective championship games in a closely contested tournament(s). "A" tournament will be the place for him to shine!
-
- Site Admin
- Posts: 7272
- Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2002 8:33 pm
- Location: Proctor, MN
Re: PageStat 2019-20
I like how PageStat has Class A. Not sure if I agree with it picking Blake #2 over Eden Prairie.Browniemagoo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:08 am Looks like Hal has Andover beating Blake and Hermantown over Warroad in the respective championship games in a closely contested tournament(s). "A" tournament will be the place for him to shine!
Lee
Message Board arsonist since 2005
Egomaniac since 2006
Egomaniac since 2006
Re: PageStat 2019-20
My guess is Blake handles EP tomorrow. By a couple too. Something like 5-2.east hockey wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:27 pmI like how PageStat has Class A. Not sure if I agree with it picking Blake #2 over Eden Prairie.Browniemagoo wrote: ↑Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:08 am Looks like Hal has Andover beating Blake and Hermantown over Warroad in the respective championship games in a closely contested tournament(s). "A" tournament will be the place for him to shine!
Lee
And I can't argue with HAL and the rest of the computer programs like HM this year. I'm still not sold they can win it all, but they played a solid schedule and can play with anyone.
-
- Posts: 7260
- Joined: Tue Nov 07, 2006 10:28 pm
Re: PageStat 2019-20
EP has the best talent from 1st line to 4th in the state. The question has always been, can they realize it?MNHockeyFan wrote: ↑Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:11 pmThat's one I wouldn't want to bet on. EP looked very good this afternoon, no goals against whereas Blake allowed 5.