PageStat 2019-20

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PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Wed Feb 12, 2020 6:22 pm

Having a little problem, it would seem, on Twitter this week. :mrgreen: So I'll post the current Top 20 here. Includes all games played through last night.

1. Andover
2. Blake
3. Eden Prairie
4. Hermantown
5. Moorhead
6. Hill-Murray
7. Rosemount
8, Lakeville South
9. St. Cloud Cathedral
10. Prior Lake
11. Benilde-St Margaret's
12. Edina
13. Cretin-Derham Hall
14. Minnetonka
15. Grand Rapids
16. Chaska
17. Wayzata
18. Warroad
19. East Grand Forks
20. Lakeville North

Other 7AA: Cloquet (#33), Duluth East (#36), Elk River (#43), Forest Lake (#51), Anoka (#101) Duluth Marshall (#114)

For its faults, QRF does have one interesting idea, and that is the tie-breaker. While I don't agree with the overall record being a tie-breaker, the head-to-head certainly should. I'll have some time in the off-season to take a closer look at how such a tie-breaker might affect how PageStat predicts section tournament games, and whether it's a success or crap. I would use only one tie-breaker--head-to-head. Otherwise, the PageStat rating would determine the seeding.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by WestMetro » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:19 pm

Looks pretty reasonable to me

Notably absent WBL, where your formula properly ranked them lower earlier than anyone else if I recall right.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:47 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Wed Feb 12, 2020 8:19 pm
Looks pretty reasonable to me

Notably absent WBL, where your formula properly ranked them lower earlier than anyone else if I recall right.
That 36th ranked SOS hurts. Their recent results hurt. If you start cold and end hot, PageStat will rate you higher than the reverse, due to the momentum factor built into the formula. This affects the Bears directly; their average game score in their first ten games was 19.63, and 18.96 in the most recent ten.

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PageStat ratings by section

Post by east hockey » Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:28 pm

PageStat ratings by section. These will be the ratings used to predict section tournament games:

Sec. 1AA: (1) Lakeville South (2) Lakeville North (3) Hastings (4) Farmington (5) Roch. Century (6) Owatonna (7) Northfield (8 ) Roch. Mayo (9) Roch. J.M.

Sec. 2AA: (1) Eden Prairie (2) Prior Lake (3) Minnetonka (4) Chaska (5) Holy Family (6) Shakopee (7) New Prague (8 ) Chanhassen

Sec. 3AA: (1) Rosemount (2) St. Thomas Academy (3) Eagan (4) Burnsville (5) Eastview (6) Bloom. Jefferson (7) Park (C.G.) (8 ) Apple Valley

Sec. 4AA: (1) Hill-Murray (2) Stillwater (3) White Bear Lake (4) East Ridge (5) Mounds View (6) Woodbury (7) Roseville (8 ) Irondale

Sec. 5AA: (1) Maple Grove (2) Blaine (3) Centennial (4) Champlin Park (5) Totino Grace (6) Osseo (7) Coon Rapids (8 ) Spring Lake Park

Sec. 6AA: (1) Blake (2) Benilde-St. Margaret's (3) Edina (4) Cretin-Derham Hall (5) Wayzata (6) St. Louis Park (7) Holy Angels (8 ) Hopkins

Sec. 7AA: (1) Andover (2) Grand Rapids (3) Cloquet (4) Duluth East (5) Elk River (6) Forest Lake (7) Anoka (8 ) Duluth Marshall

Sec. 8AA: (1) Moorhead (2) St. Michael-Albertville (3) Roseau (4) St. Cloud (5) Brainerd (6) Buffalo (7) Rogers (8 ) Bemidji

Sec. 1A: (1) Dodge County (2) Mankato West (3) Mankato East (4) Faribault (5) Minnesota River (6) Albert Lea (7) Waseca (8 ) Winona (9) Rochester Lourdes (10) La Crescent (11) Austin

Sec. 2A: (1) Orono (2) Delano (3) Robb. Armstrong/Cooper (4) Breck (5) Mound Westonka (6) Minneapolis (7) Southwest Christian/Richfield (8 ) Bloom. Kennedy (9) Waconia (10) Providence Academy

Sec. 3A: (1) Hutchinson (2) New Ulm (3) Marshall (4) Litchfield (5) Luverne (6) Windom (7) Worthington (8 ) Willmar (9) Fairmont (10) Redwood Valley

Sec. 4A: (1) Mahtomedi (2) Gentry Academy (3) St. Paul Johnson (4) Tartan (5) South St. Paul (6) St. Paul Academy (7) Simley (8 ) Henry Sibley (9) St. Paul Highland Park (10) Red Wing

Sec. 5A: (1) Monticello (2) Pine City (3) North Branch (4) Princeton (5) St. Francis (6) Northern Lakes (7) Chisago Lakes (8 ) Sauk Rapids (9) Mora (10) Cambridge (11) Becker Big Lake (12) Moose Lake

Sec. 6A: (1) St. Cloud Cathedral (2) Alexandria (3) Little Falls (4) River Lakes (5) Sartell (6) Fergus Falls (7) Morris/Benson (8 ) Breckenridge (9) Wadena (10) Prairie Centre

Sec. 7A: (1) Hermantown (2) Duluth Denfeld (3) Greenway (4) Eveleth-Gilbert (5) Virginia (6) International Falls (7) Hibbing (8 ) Proctor (9) North Shore (11) Ely

Sec. 8A: (1) Warroad (2) East Grand Forks (3) Thief River Falls (4) Detroit Lakes (5) Kittson Central (6) Red Lake Falls (7) Crookston (8 ) Lake of the Woods (9) Park Rapids (10) Bagley

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Re: 2020 Section Tournaments

Post by east hockey » Tue Feb 18, 2020 4:44 pm

PageStat finds itself with an early +1 on the seedings after selecting (9) North Shore over (8) Hibbing on Saturday.

These are the upcoming agreements:

Tonight

(5) Duluth East over (4) Forest Lake in 7AA quarterfinals
(9) Willmar over (8) Fairmont in 3A first round

Other upcoming disagreements (so far)

(5) St. Thomas Academy over (4) Eastview in 3AA quarterfinals
(5) Champlin Park over (4) Totino-Grace in 5AA quarterfinals
(5) Detroit lakes over (4) Kittson Central in 8A quarterfinals

PageStat won by +10 last year, its best season to date. I don't predict the same success this year, but am looking to extend the winning streak to four years. Since 1999, PageStat is up by 46 games, winning 13 seasons, losing 7 and tying 1.

Good luck tonight to all teams!

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by WestMetro » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:25 pm

Will be interesting to see how things unfold

If you get all 8 section winners right this year , you should ask 1 mill for the formula and cash out !

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:34 pm

WestMetro wrote:
Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:25 pm
Will be interesting to see how things unfold

If you get all 8 section winners right this year , you should ask 1 mill for the formula and cash out !
It might be a nice addition to my retirement pensions :)

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Tue Feb 18, 2020 8:49 pm

PageStat and the seedings are even after Forest lake beats Duluth East.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Tue Feb 18, 2020 9:01 pm

And with Fairmont beating Willmar in 3A, PageStat is down a game.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by goldy313 » Tue Feb 18, 2020 10:15 pm

There have to be situations where you look at page2stat and go #-o., I am thinking Willmar over Fairmont. I suppose there also have to be times when it is like taking candy from a baby.

Some interesting ones I picked out were Farmington at #4 vs the coaches at #6, but they can’t help (or hurt) unless they and Century or Owatonna upset their way to the finals. (The last time a Lakeville team wasn’t in the 1AA finals, 2005). STA at a 5 seed vs. your #2 in section with an offensively challenged Rosemount.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by BigTen » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:18 am

Lee

Do you have updated Pagestat calculations for SOS and ratings thru 2/15/20 ?

Thanks!

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:46 am

BigTen wrote:
Wed Feb 19, 2020 11:18 am
Lee

Do you have updated Pagestat calculations for SOS and ratings thru 2/15/20 ?

Thanks!
http://minnhock.com/ps2020.htm

For this week, the ratings were run a day early, because there were a few section games on Saturday.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Thu Feb 20, 2020 4:30 pm

Four disagreements tonight

(5) St. Thomas Academy over (4) Eastview in 3AA quarterfinals
(5) Champlin Park over (4) Totino-Grace in 5AA quarterfinals
(5) Princeton over (4) St. Francis in 5A quarterfinals
(5) Detroit lakes over (4) Kittson Central in 8A quarterfinals

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Sat Feb 22, 2020 8:50 am

PageStat went three for four on Thursday, only blowing the Champlin Park pick, to go up +1 on the seedings.

We have two disagreements today:

#3 Eagan over #2 Burnsville in the 3AA semifinal
#3 New Ulm over #2 Litchfield in the 3A final

There are some possible disagreements after today depending on the results of quarterfinal and semifinal games.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Sat Feb 22, 2020 10:50 pm

The seedings took both matches to grab a +1 lead on PageStat tonight.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by WestMetro » Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:10 am

Lee , translate a little more for me please :

How many of the 32 AA qfinal winners did PS correctly predict ?

How many of the 14 semi winners so far ?

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Mon Feb 24, 2020 10:10 am

WestMetro wrote:
Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:10 am
Lee , translate a little more for me please :

How many of the 32 AA qfinal winners did PS correctly predict ?

How many of the 14 semi winners so far ?
http://minnhock.com/boys2020.htm

It's all right here. Where the PS column reads "1", PageStat has picked the seeding underdog, otherwise it's picked the seeding favorite.

Overall it's 92-18, whereas the higher seeded teams are 93-17. I'd have to pick apart the data for AA/A, and anyone can do that as easily as I :mrgreen:

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Fri Feb 28, 2020 8:55 pm

PageStat takes the final two disagreements (Maple Grove over Blaine, STA over Burnsville) to finish up +1 on the seedings. After last year's +10 margin, this feels like a moral loss. :mrgreen:

Offseason? More analysis and a hard look at a PageStat tiebreaker such as QRF uses. Probably make the system worse :lol: but one never knows.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by Browniemagoo » Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:08 am

Looks like Hal has Andover beating Blake and Hermantown over Warroad in the respective championship games in a closely contested tournament(s). "A" tournament will be the place for him to shine!

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by east hockey » Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:27 pm

Browniemagoo wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:08 am
Looks like Hal has Andover beating Blake and Hermantown over Warroad in the respective championship games in a closely contested tournament(s). "A" tournament will be the place for him to shine!
I like how PageStat has Class A. Not sure if I agree with it picking Blake #2 over Eden Prairie.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by Sparlimb » Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:36 pm

east hockey wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:27 pm
Browniemagoo wrote:
Wed Mar 04, 2020 9:08 am
Looks like Hal has Andover beating Blake and Hermantown over Warroad in the respective championship games in a closely contested tournament(s). "A" tournament will be the place for him to shine!
I like how PageStat has Class A. Not sure if I agree with it picking Blake #2 over Eden Prairie.

Lee
My guess is Blake handles EP tomorrow. By a couple too. Something like 5-2.

And I can't argue with HAL and the rest of the computer programs like HM this year. I'm still not sold they can win it all, but they played a solid schedule and can play with anyone.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by MNHockeyFan » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:11 pm

Sparlimb wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:36 pm
My guess is Blake handles EP tomorrow. By a couple too. Something like 5-2.
That's one I wouldn't want to bet on. EP looked very good this afternoon, no goals against whereas Blake allowed 5.

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Re: PageStat 2019-20

Post by Sparlimb » Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:14 pm

MNHockeyFan wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 11:11 pm
Sparlimb wrote:
Thu Mar 05, 2020 9:36 pm
My guess is Blake handles EP tomorrow. By a couple too. Something like 5-2.
That's one I wouldn't want to bet on. EP looked very good this afternoon, no goals against whereas Blake allowed 5.
EP has the best talent from 1st line to 4th in the state. The question has always been, can they realize it?

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