2003-04 Connecticut Ratings
(Scores through 3/13/04)
Teams listed W-L-T record reflects only games whose score is listed on the
2003-2004 Connecticut HS Scores page (sorted first by team name and then by date)
Please send missing (through the listed date) CT scores to David Ernst for consolidation. Thanks David!
The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then
adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative
error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is
reached (convergence).
The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between
any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a
neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that due to goal
differential limits set in the ranking program these predicted goal differentials
are only accurate when comparing teams ranked within three goals of each other.
The differential between teams ranked farther apart becomes more and more
understated as the chosen teams become farther apart in the rankings.
A teams Total value only has meaning
in relation to other teams in the same list (i.e. Totals cannot be compared
from one week to the next or directly to a ratings list for another state).
The Last 5 column is a simple average performance of that team in the last five
games based on current opponent Total values and goal differential (up to max allowed).
Obviously, the fewer games a team's ranking is based upon the less likely
that ranking is to be accurate.
Only teams with at least 3 games against CT teams are listed in the ratings.
Links to other ratings:
CT IA IL IN MA MD MD-VA MI MN MN-WI-ND MO ND Northeast NH NJ NY WNY Club OH PA-E PA-W1A PA-W2A PA-W3A
RI VA VT WI wWI USA Midget AAA Men's NCAA D1
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More information about how the ratings are calculated and their past
accuracy can be found here .
As of 2/21/04 all state rankings are calculated interdependently. This allows interstate opponents to be given
their proper weight. Also, games between teams ranked more than 5 goals apart are no longer used when
calculating the rankings.
As of 3/4/04 there are now two rankings listed. The first is the standard Goal Diff Limit = 4 ranking and
the second is a GDL=1 ranking. The GDL1 ranking has proven to be the most accurate for college and junior teams
but is yet unproven at other levels, especially for those rankings in which many teams are missing many scores.
The Totals column takes on a different meaning in the GDL1 ranking, see the D1 College rankings for details.
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RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,Fairfield Prep,CT,__________________ 20 4 0, 1.8, 9.4, 11.17, 11.14
2,West Haven,CT,______________________ 19 4 0, 1.7, 8.4, 10.19, 9.88
3,New Canaan,CT,______________________ 24 2 0, 2.8, 7.3, 10.15, 10.12
4,Notre Dame-West Haven,CT,___________ 15 10 0, 0.7, 8.8, 9.52, 9.49
5,Notre Dame-Fairfield,CT,____________ 14 9 0, 0.1, 8.6, 8.69, 8.49
6,Simsbury,CT,________________________ 17 3 2, 2.0, 6.6, 8.63, 9.16
7,Stamford,CT,________________________ 16 9 0, 0.9, 7.1, 8.02, 8.30
8,Hamden,CT,__________________________ 8 12 0, -0.4, 8.4, 7.96, 7.78
9,East Haven,CT,______________________ 14 6 1, 1.0, 6.9, 7.88, 7.73
10,Darien,CT,__________________________ 13 11 0, 0.0, 7.4, 7.47, 7.46
11,Lyman Hall,CT,______________________ 15 6 1, 1.2, 6.2, 7.41, 8.79
12,Greenwich,CT,_______________________ 12 10 0, 0.2, 6.9, 7.18, 6.62
13,Fermi,CT,___________________________ 15 6 2, 1.1, 6.0, 7.16, 6.98
14,North Haven,CT,_____________________ 17 5 0, 1.8, 5.1, 6.95, 7.13
15,Newington,CT,_______________________ 15 8 0, 0.5, 6.2, 6.70, 7.08
16,Westhill,CT,________________________ 15 7 0, 1.3, 5.2, 6.56, 6.46
17,Glastonbury,CT,_____________________ 16 6 1, 1.3, 5.2, 6.55, 6.53
18,Immaculate,CT,______________________ 10 10 0, 0.1, 6.4, 6.44, 5.90
19,Farmington,CT,______________________ 17 7 0, 1.7, 4.7, 6.36, 5.55
20,East Catholic,CT,___________________ 19 4 0, 1.8, 4.5, 6.28, 6.28
21,Trumbull,CT,________________________ 15 9 0, 0.9, 5.4, 6.28, 6.50
22,Wilton,CT,__________________________ 14 8 1, 0.9, 5.4, 6.25, 5.25
23,Ridgefield,CT,______________________ 10 12 0, -0.4, 6.4, 6.03, 6.86
24,Hand,CT,____________________________ 18 4 0, 2.0, 4.0, 6.00, 5.90
25,Wethersfield,CT,____________________ 12 9 0, 0.8, 5.0, 5.80, 5.53
26,North Branford,CT,__________________ 13 9 0, 0.7, 4.9, 5.54, 4.44
27,Suffield,CT,________________________ 11 8 0, 0.7, 4.8, 5.51, 4.87
28,Cheshire,CT,________________________ 12 10 0, 0.0, 5.4, 5.49, 5.62
29,Enfield,CT,_________________________ 13 9 1, 0.2, 5.2, 5.41, 6.26
30,Branford,CT,________________________ 13 8 0, 1.0, 4.4, 5.39, 4.87
31,Xavier,CT,__________________________ 6 11 1, -0.6, 5.6, 5.08, 3.86
32,Amity,CT,___________________________ 9 10 1, 0.3, 4.7, 4.98, 4.48
33,Trinity Catholic,CT,________________ 8 11 1, -0.2, 5.0, 4.81, 4.60
34,St Bernard,CT,______________________ 6 14 0, -0.9, 5.6, 4.70, 4.00
35,Rockville,CT,_______________________ 11 9 1, -0.0, 4.5, 4.47, 4.12
36,Masuk,CT,___________________________ 17 7 0, 1.4, 3.1, 4.47, 5.02
37,Shepaug,CT,_________________________ 13 9 0, -0.1, 4.4, 4.30, 4.03
38,South Windsor,CT,___________________ 5 13 1, -0.9, 4.9, 4.04, 4.28
39,Guilford,CT,________________________ 4 16 0, -1.6, 5.6, 4.03, 5.45
40,Conard,CT,__________________________ 5 14 0, -1.5, 5.4, 3.87, 4.54
41,Tri-Town,CT,________________________ 12 9 0, 0.7, 3.1, 3.84, 3.87
42,Bethel,CT,__________________________ 15 8 0, 1.1, 2.6, 3.76, 3.66
43,Avon/St Paul,CT,____________________ 8 12 0, -0.8, 4.5, 3.76, 2.96
44,EO Smith,CT,________________________ 6 13 1, -1.1, 4.4, 3.37, 4.25
45,Staples,CT,_________________________ 4 14 1, -1.4, 4.8, 3.33, 3.68
46,Norwalk/McMahon,CT,_________________ 7 13 0, -0.7, 4.1, 3.32, 2.67
47,Northwest Catholic,CT,______________ 7 12 1, -0.6, 3.8, 3.28, 2.99
48,Watertown,CT,_______________________ 9 10 2, 0.0, 3.1, 3.13, 3.45
49,New Fairfield,CT,___________________ 10 11 1, -0.4, 3.2, 2.80, 3.54
50,Hall,CT,____________________________ 9 10 1, 0.0, 2.8, 2.78, 1.75
51,New Milford,CT,_____________________ 5 14 1, -1.1, 3.7, 2.60, 2.94
52,Sheehan,CT,_________________________ 3 14 1, -2.7, 5.1, 2.45, 2.05
53,Milford,CT,_________________________ 2 18 0, -2.6, 4.8, 2.13, 1.83
54,Shelton,CT,_________________________ 7 13 0, -0.9, 3.1, 2.10, 1.89
55,Housatonic,CT,______________________ 4 16 0, -1.5, 3.4, 1.88, 1.60
56,Fitch,CT,___________________________ 5 11 0, -1.2, 3.1, 1.82, 0.34
57,Fairfield,CT,_______________________ 2 18 0, -2.5, 4.2, 1.72, 1.92
58,Rocky Hill,CT,______________________ 1 16 1, -3.2, 4.9, 1.71, 3.36
59,Newtown,CT,_________________________ 6 14 1, -1.4, 2.9, 1.47, 0.50
60,Manchester,CT,______________________ 5 14 0, -1.0, 2.2, 1.17, 1.61
61,East Lyme,CT,_______________________ 6 13 1, -1.5, 2.6, 1.11, 3.30
62,NFA,CT,_____________________________ 5 14 1, -1.5, 2.6, 1.09, 1.19
63,Windsor,CT,_________________________ 4 16 0, -1.7, 2.7, 1.02, 1.53
64,Barlow,CT,__________________________ 1 18 1, -2.8, 2.8, -0.05, -0.04
65,Bolton/Coventry/Lyman,CT,___________ 0 14 0, -3.1, 2.4, -0.65, -0.78
RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,Fairfield Prep,CT,__________________ 20 4 0, 0.7, 7.8, 8.45, 8.70
2,West Haven,CT,______________________ 19 4 0, 0.6, 7.5, 8.09, 7.95
3,New Canaan,CT,______________________ 24 2 0, 0.8, 7.1, 7.94, 7.91
4,Notre Dame-West Haven,CT,___________ 15 10 0, 0.2, 7.6, 7.79, 8.22
5,Notre Dame-Fairfield,CT,____________ 14 9 0, 0.0, 7.5, 7.53, 7.84
6,Simsbury,CT,________________________ 17 3 2, 0.6, 6.9, 7.52, 7.64
7,East Haven,CT,______________________ 14 6 1, 0.4, 7.0, 7.42, 7.14
8,Stamford,CT,________________________ 16 9 0, 0.3, 7.1, 7.30, 7.49
9,Hamden,CT,__________________________ 8 12 0, -0.2, 7.5, 7.30, 7.05
10,Lyman Hall,CT,______________________ 15 6 1, 0.4, 6.8, 7.20, 7.41
11,Darien,CT,__________________________ 13 11 0, 0.0, 7.2, 7.20, 7.37
12,Fermi,CT,___________________________ 15 6 2, 0.3, 6.8, 7.10, 7.19
13,Greenwich,CT,_______________________ 12 10 0, 0.0, 7.0, 7.06, 6.80
14,North Haven,CT,_____________________ 17 5 0, 0.5, 6.5, 7.05, 7.30
15,Newington,CT,_______________________ 15 8 0, 0.2, 6.8, 7.04, 6.93
16,East Catholic,CT,___________________ 19 4 0, 0.6, 6.3, 6.90, 6.56
17,Glastonbury,CT,_____________________ 16 6 1, 0.4, 6.5, 6.88, 7.04
18,Westhill,CT,________________________ 15 7 0, 0.4, 6.5, 6.85, 6.60
19,Immaculate,CT,______________________ 10 10 0, -0.1, 6.9, 6.81, 6.60
20,Hand,CT,____________________________ 18 4 0, 0.6, 6.2, 6.80, 6.97
21,Trumbull,CT,________________________ 15 9 0, 0.3, 6.5, 6.79, 6.70
22,Wilton,CT,__________________________ 14 8 1, 0.3, 6.5, 6.79, 6.62
23,Farmington,CT,______________________ 17 7 0, 0.4, 6.3, 6.76, 6.41
24,Ridgefield,CT,______________________ 10 12 0, -0.1, 6.8, 6.75, 7.19
25,Enfield,CT,_________________________ 13 9 1, 0.2, 6.5, 6.73, 6.97
26,Cheshire,CT,________________________ 12 10 0, 0.1, 6.6, 6.68, 6.75
27,North Branford,CT,__________________ 13 9 0, 0.2, 6.4, 6.58, 6.19
28,Wethersfield,CT,____________________ 12 9 0, 0.1, 6.4, 6.58, 6.26
29,Suffield,CT,________________________ 11 8 0, 0.2, 6.4, 6.57, 6.63
30,Branford,CT,________________________ 13 8 0, 0.2, 6.3, 6.55, 6.52
31,Shepaug,CT,_________________________ 13 9 0, 0.2, 6.3, 6.46, 6.30
32,Rockville,CT,_______________________ 11 9 1, 0.1, 6.3, 6.40, 6.16
33,Xavier,CT,__________________________ 6 11 1, -0.3, 6.6, 6.35, 6.16
34,Amity,CT,___________________________ 9 10 1, -0.1, 6.4, 6.34, 6.21
35,Trinity Catholic,CT,________________ 8 11 1, -0.1, 6.4, 6.31, 6.36
36,Masuk,CT,___________________________ 17 7 0, 0.4, 5.9, 6.29, 6.44
37,St Bernard,CT,______________________ 6 14 0, -0.4, 6.6, 6.26, 6.17
38,Guilford,CT,________________________ 4 16 0, -0.5, 6.6, 6.14, 6.61
39,Bethel,CT,__________________________ 15 8 0, 0.4, 5.8, 6.11, 6.06
40,Avon/St Paul,CT,____________________ 8 12 0, -0.2, 6.3, 6.10, 5.90
41,Conard,CT,__________________________ 5 14 0, -0.5, 6.5, 6.06, 6.46
42,Tri-Town,CT,________________________ 12 9 0, 0.1, 5.9, 6.05, 6.34
43,South Windsor,CT,___________________ 5 13 1, -0.4, 6.4, 6.01, 5.91
44,EO Smith,CT,________________________ 6 13 1, -0.3, 6.3, 5.93, 6.21
45,Norwalk/McMahon,CT,_________________ 7 13 0, -0.3, 6.1, 5.88, 5.67
46,New Fairfield,CT,___________________ 10 11 1, -0.0, 5.9, 5.87, 5.85
47,Watertown,CT,_______________________ 9 10 2, -0.0, 5.9, 5.87, 5.83
48,Staples,CT,_________________________ 4 14 1, -0.5, 6.4, 5.87, 6.12
49,Sheehan,CT,_________________________ 3 14 1, -0.6, 6.5, 5.87, 5.71
50,Northwest Catholic,CT,______________ 7 12 1, -0.3, 6.1, 5.82, 5.41
51,Hall,CT,____________________________ 9 10 1, 0.0, 5.8, 5.77, 5.58
52,New Milford,CT,_____________________ 5 14 1, -0.4, 6.1, 5.66, 5.85
53,Milford,CT,_________________________ 2 18 0, -0.8, 6.4, 5.59, 5.43
54,Shelton,CT,_________________________ 7 13 0, -0.3, 5.9, 5.57, 5.72
55,Rocky Hill,CT,______________________ 1 16 1, -0.8, 6.4, 5.54, 5.87
56,Fitch,CT,___________________________ 5 11 0, -0.4, 5.9, 5.50, 5.17
57,Newtown,CT,_________________________ 6 14 1, -0.3, 5.8, 5.47, 5.17
58,Fairfield,CT,_______________________ 2 18 0, -0.8, 6.2, 5.43, 5.53
59,Housatonic,CT,______________________ 4 16 0, -0.6, 6.0, 5.39, 5.07
60,East Lyme,CT,_______________________ 6 13 1, -0.3, 5.7, 5.36, 6.01
61,Manchester,CT,______________________ 5 14 0, -0.2, 5.6, 5.36, 5.44
62,NFA,CT,_____________________________ 5 14 1, -0.4, 5.7, 5.32, 5.48
63,Windsor,CT,_________________________ 4 16 0, -0.6, 5.8, 5.22, 5.25
64,Barlow,CT,__________________________ 1 18 1, -0.8, 5.8, 4.94, 4.98
65,Bolton/Coventry/Lyman,CT,___________ 0 14 0, -1.0, 5.7, 4.68, 4.63