Scores that ratings are based upon, sorted by team. Last Updated December 17, 2006. Previous Week's Rankings New ratings will be posted each week, time permitting.
Maximum Goal Differential = 7 See Rankings Without Considering Goal Differential Below RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,Mahoning Valley,___________________ 24 8 0, 1.8, 6.9, 8.65, 11.21 2,St. Louis,_________________________ 22 6 0, 1.6, 7.0, 8.60, 6.37 3,Santa Fe,__________________________ 21 8 0, 1.7, 6.9, 8.60, 8.20 4,Texas,_____________________________ 19 11 0, 0.8, 7.2, 7.99, 8.76 5,Alpena,____________________________ 22 9 0, 1.0, 7.0, 7.96, 8.29 6,USNTDP,____________________________ 11 18 0, -0.6, 7.6, 7.02, 6.00 7,Southern Minnesota,________________ 15 15 0, 0.2, 6.8, 6.98, 7.07 8,Fargo-Moorhead,____________________ 19 10 0, 0.7, 6.3, 6.94, 5.47 9,Wichita Falls,_____________________ 11 19 0, -0.7, 7.6, 6.93, 6.36 10,Fairbanks,_________________________ 13 17 0, -0.4, 7.0, 6.60, 7.23 11,Traverse City,_____________________ 11 22 0, -1.1, 7.6, 6.56, 4.25 12,Springfield,_______________________ 13 17 0, -0.5, 6.9, 6.45, 7.14 13,Marquette,_________________________ 10 20 0, -0.8, 7.3, 6.45, 5.63 14,Alaska,____________________________ 9 21 0, -1.1, 7.1, 5.98, 5.03 15,Alexandria,________________________ 11 19 0, -0.9, 6.7, 5.84, 7.70 16,North Iowa,________________________ 13 17 0, -0.8, 6.7, 5.83, 5.77 17,Bismarck,__________________________ 12 19 0, -0.7, 6.4, 5.69, 5.66 Maximum Goal Differential = 1 (i.e. just considers W, L, T and schedule strength) RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1,St. Louis,_________________________ 22 6 0, 0.6, 7.0, 7.57, 6.78 2,Mahoning Valley,___________________ 24 8 0, 0.5, 6.9, 7.43, 8.07 3,Santa Fe,__________________________ 21 8 0, 0.4, 6.9, 7.37, 7.47 4,Alpena,____________________________ 22 9 0, 0.4, 7.0, 7.37, 7.29 5,Texas,_____________________________ 19 11 0, 0.3, 7.0, 7.30, 7.72 6,Fargo-Moorhead,____________________ 19 10 0, 0.3, 6.8, 7.12, 6.62 7,Southern Minnesota,________________ 15 15 0, 0.0, 7.0, 7.03, 7.13 8,USNTDP,____________________________ 11 18 0, -0.2, 7.2, 6.93, 6.70 9,Wichita Falls,_____________________ 11 19 0, -0.3, 7.2, 6.90, 6.34 10,Springfield,_______________________ 13 17 0, -0.1, 7.0, 6.89, 7.28 11,Traverse City,_____________________ 11 22 0, -0.3, 7.2, 6.83, 6.31 12,Fairbanks,_________________________ 13 17 0, -0.1, 7.0, 6.82, 7.39 13,North Iowa,________________________ 13 17 0, -0.1, 6.9, 6.81, 6.78 14,Marquette,_________________________ 10 20 0, -0.3, 7.1, 6.74, 6.38 15,Alexandria,________________________ 11 19 0, -0.3, 7.0, 6.71, 7.13 16,Bismarck,__________________________ 12 19 0, -0.2, 6.8, 6.61, 6.61 17,Alaska,____________________________ 9 21 0, -0.4, 7.0, 6.60, 6.11 The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is reached (convergence). One effect often noticed is that a team's rating can change slightly without playing due to previous opponents playing which affects their rating and their opponent's rating, etc. The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that these rankings are an average performance value for each team for the entire season, all games are equally weighted, so a team's latest game may make up only 1/40th of a teams rating at the end of the season. Actually, there are two different rankings listed below. The first is as described above with the maximum goal differential used per game set at 7. This ordering ends up similar to CCHP, although differences do arise due to CCHP considering home ice advantage and CCHP not using a goal differential limit. The second ranking sets maximum goal differential at 1, thereby just considering whether the game was won, lost, or tied (and strength of opponent). Note that the Total column in the GD=1 ranking is therefore in win percentage units rather than goal units. A rated .01 ahead of B can be interpreted as saying that if these two teams played exclusively against each other, A's predicted winning percentage is 1 percentage point higher than B's (i.e. A's predicted winning percentage vs. B would be .495, B's against A would be .505). However, since the teams do not play exclusively against the other it is actually a little bit more complex than above as teams can be ranked as high as 1.0 above their average opponent (if they were undefeated and untied) and as low as 1.0 below their average opponent (if they lost all of their games). Not surprisingly, the ordering ends up very similar to KRACH . 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