Twins Rotation

[boblee]

With the rotation looking as follows:

Santana
Radke
Liriano
Baker
Bonser

I think the Twins can start to creep up towards the .500 mark. Radke is still causing problems. Also, talk of Silva rejoining the rotation bothers me. I think it's good the way it is. If you were Ron Gardenhire, what would you want your rotation to be? Feel free to use minor league players as well.

[Blue Breeze]

If I were Gardy:

1-Santana
2-Bonser
3-Liriano
4-Baker
5-Perkins

Obviously Radke is not going to be forced from the rotation, but right now he is just Joe Mays with a better goatee. 4 rookies, why not? Liriano is ready, and Bonser has better stuff than most of the guys on the staff. Let Baker and Perkins take their lumps with an eye towards the future.

[Irishmans Shanty]

1. Santana
2. Rincon
3. Liriano
4. Rookie
5. Rookie

Take your pick at #4 & #5, a medley of prospects can all have a shot. Don't fall in love with too many pups though, that is why I introduce the Rincon factor. This rotation resembles the direction the Twins SHOULD go in '07. This year is done, The Sox have the division, it's just a matter of whether they win 100 or 109. The Tigers may be last year's Sox (the team you wait to fall on their face but never do). Rincon could start, and he did back in '02, stretch his arm out and make him a starter, he has nice heat, good stuff, and a veteran presence. 7th and 8th inning guys can be disposable, ride some "has been" or "sputtering prospect" as long as you can and move on, catch lighting in a bottle with some live arm from the scrap heap (as the Sox found in Bobby Jenks). Who knows, maybe Lohse or Silva can salvage a career in a bullpen, Hawkins did it.

At this point, the Twins could finish anywhere from 20 under to 15 over. However, 15 over will be nowhere near the money. The Twins can not catch the Tigers, Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, and Blue Jays as they are currently comprised. This rotation plans for the future without cashing in this season. Who knows what prospects a Hunter, Stewart, or Radke could add to the mix? Before you laugh at prospects for Radke, think about it, we know he's bad, but we watch every start. To other contending franchises (especially National League ones), he is a gutty veteran with very recent post-season success. Trust me, someone will bite.

[packerboy]

Radke wont agree to a trade.

We are stuck with him unless Gardy has the guts to do the right thing and jerk him from the rotation.

I mean just about anybody can do what he is doing right now. He cant get to the 6th inning vs a quality opponent without giving up at least 5 runs.

With the starting staff in the shape its in, there is no way they can contend. Go with young guys.

[goldy313]

There's no chance of wining the division, and the wildcard isn't going to be available for the Twins either. They aren't fundamentaly that great, have little power, and the pitching isn't as good as we'd hoped. The problem with bringing in too many young guys is wearing out their arms to early, they have to be on a pitch count after all, and the bullpen can only do so much. Let Radke continue to get shelled, eventually he'll put himself on the DL or retire. Let the young arms develop slowly, no need to rush the, this team is going no where for a couple of years.

[packerboy]

You hear a lot about how teams should be careful not to rush their young players/pitchers.

Detroit's staff is made up of a lot of young pitchers who took their lumps and are now maturng into a good starting staff at the same time. They have all been around about 4/5 years.

They add The Gambler and they are 32-18.

It does the Twins no good to keep sending Radke out there.

[goldy313]

Using Detroits guys isn't a very good argument. None of Detroits pitchers are in the same class as Liriano and until this year they have been as group pretty bad, with no one posting an ERA under 4.5. All four Twins returning staters this year had an ERA in 2005 better than any of the Tigers young arms. We're only 25% into this season so it's tough to make a blanket statement about them (Tigers) as a staff. If in September these guys pitching for the Tigers still have ERA's under 4.0 I'll be suprised, they've never shown anything like that kind of promise.

Look at the Cubs and how they flamed out young arms; they have 15.6 million tied up in two guys, Wood and Prior, who have a combined 10 innings pitched this year. All that promise means squat when they spend so much time on the DL.

[packerboy]

Well goldy, I agree that the Tigers are still unproven but they are sure doin a heck of a job this year. They sure dont looked flamed out.

The Cubs didnt do anything to cause the injuries to Wood and Pryor.

Giving a young pitcher a shot and sitting Radke down wont hurt a thing. It may make Radke receptive to a "rent a player" type of trade that IS described.

[goldy313]

Common thought on Mark Prior is that he may have an injury before he was drafted, however the Cubs did not pick that up on his physical. Prior broke in with the Cubs his rookie year and they (the Cubs) threw him to the wolves the next two seasons while trying to ride Sosa and company to the World Series. He pitched more innings each of those two years than he had in any two seasons before, then he started having shoulder pain and hasn't been anywhere near durable since. Most of the baseball writers in Chicago continue to beat the drum about Dusty Baker and the Cubs sacrificing long term success for short term gain, using Prior as example #1. The anaolgy I remeber most is if you take a world class miler and expect him to compete at the Boston Marathon you have the Cubs pitching philosophy. The Cubs had two of the best pitchers in all of baseball but ruined them.

The Twins took the right approach with Santana, ease him into it, let him mature physically. Santana was 26 before he threw 200+ innings in the majors. Roy Halladay was 25, Bartolo Colon and Randy Johnson were 25, Chris Carpenter was 26. Of the last 10 Cy Young winners only Roger Clemens at 24 and Barry Zito at 23 threw over 200 innings before their 25th birthday. By comparison Mark Prior was 22. Liriano is 22, Bonser and Baker are 24. Let them mature, the Twins aren't going to contend the next few years anyways, don't be like the Cubs and kill your future by turning good arms into dead ones. We've seen too many Eric Milton/Joe Mays types come through here lately.

[sterfry9]

The Twins took the right approach with Santana, ease him into it, let him mature physically. Santana was 26 before he threw 200+ innings in the majors. Roy Halladay was 25, Bartolo Colon and Randy Johnson were 25, Chris Carpenter was 26. Of the last 10 Cy Young winners only Roger Clemens at 24 and Barry Zito at 23 threw over 200 innings before their 25th birthday. By comparison Mark Prior was 22. Liriano is 22, Bonser and Baker are 24. Let them mature, the Twins aren't going to contend the next few years anyways, don't be like the Cubs and kill your future by turning good arms into dead ones. We've seen too many Eric Milton/Joe Mays types come through here lately.[/quote]

those are nice facts with your statement...but how can you keep sending these silvas and lohse and radkes out here to just get ROCKED..i dont know too much about what we have down in the minor leagues or what not but are there any other pitchers to throw in there to prevent the blow outs

[Irishmans Shanty]

This recent trend of "protecting young arms" is a bunch of crap. Pitch counts and protecting pitchers' psyches is nausiating. I find it scientifically impossible that nearly all pro starters are believed to be on the verge of blowing their arms out at 100 pitches. Who decided 100 is the magic line that you don't cross. Watch Gardy, starters are done around a 100 regardless of the situation. Pitch counts lost Game #4 to the Yankees in '04. Santana was rolling despite short rest but Gardy had to lift him to cover his tail. I'm guessing Matt LeCroy could tuck a few more beers away than Nick Punto, physically they are different men, pitchers' arms are the same way, every guy is different, but yet 100 pitches applies to them all, doesn't make sense to me.

Jeremy Bonderman and Mike Maroth are better pitchers today because they got their brains beat in a couple years ago. That's called on the job training. I don't think Bonderman's psyche is at all for the worse because he lost 21 games two years ago. Athletes can either handle adversity or they can't. Age doesn't have anything to do with it. In summary, if the Twins are still running Radke out to the mound because they believe he is better than the next guy in line.. so be it, but if they are sticking with him only to protect a young guy from an injury or mental damage then I guess I'll continue to be nausiated every fifth day.

[packerboy]

I agree IS. There is only one way to develop arm strength and durability................throw.

But this mindless pitch count stuff has 2 elements. The other one is that they firmly believe that after 100 these guys are less effective.

It doesnt matter if he just struck out 5 in a row. Its at 100 so lets go to the bullpen. It doesnt make any more sense but thats the way we do things.

And it starts at about age 10. I have coached alot of youth baseball and these people are obsessed with counting pitches. I have dads who volunteer to be the pitch counters. Its nuts.

I have a very scientific approach to it... I ask the kid how he's feelin


One more point. Everybody is different. Some pitchers can throw more than others. Some can get bombed and come out the next game and not let it bother them.Others are shattered for a week ......or even life. However, from Little League to MLB, we mindlessly just count pitches. I guess its easier that way.

[goldy313]

I don't like the pitch count either, but as you point out Packerboy the way to develop arm strength is to throw. You can't take a guy who has conditioned his arm to throw 70-80 pitches at the NCAA level for 15 starts a year and expect him to be able to throw 100+ pitches at the major league level for 35 starts in 1 season; like the Cubs did with Prior. At some point they have to develop the arm strength to do it and that's not their rookie year in baseball.

[Blue Breeze]

The pitch count is a joke. Some guys get gassed after 85 pitches and others can go 150, it all depends on the individual. Theories about the size of the player are bogus too. When Prior came in everyone talked about how safe a pick he was since he wouldn't get hurt due to his size and flawless delivery. Turns out he is the most injury prone player in the game. Ease young guys in at the beginning of their minor league careers to build up their arm strength, but by the time they get to the bigs their arms should be strong enough to hold up for 200 innings. Injuries are inevitable, pitch count or not.

[Irishmans Shanty]

Goldy..The talk in Chicago sports media is NOT that the Cubs organization blew out their arms, the talk is that Wood has been an injury waiting to happen. Steve Stone has been saying it since 1998. He was right and that's why he left the Cubs. Long brewing tension between the Cubs and the critical but correct and honest tandem of Chip Carey and Steve Stone came to a head two years ago with Wood and his sore arm and hurt feelings at the center of it. The talk on Prior is that he is a panzy. Prior has been hurt for the better part of three years, yet he has never torn, broken, ripped, or dislocated anything. His injuries never show up on an X-ray or MRI and usually consist of tightness, stiffness, tweaks, discomfort, zings, and cramps. Mark Prior has an agent that is looking out for his next contract not his next start. The Chicago sports media has mostly given up on Prior and Wood, but never have I heard that the Cubs overworked them too early in their career.

Dusty Baker is a boob, he has been criticized because his teams' inablility to execute fundamenals and for not holding his players accountable for ridiculous behavior. Behavior such as Kent Mercher physically threatening Steve Stone on a team flight for giving Roy Oswalt compliments during a telecast. However, one thing Dusty has never been criticized for is using Prior and Wood too much too early in their careers.

[Irishmans Shanty]

Goldy...Another inaccurate point you made is the Chicago sports media has criticized the Cubs for sacrificing tommorow for today. The Cubs franchise is the most tortured baseball franchise left, the Sox and Sox titles the last two years mean that they now stand alone in terms of a title drought. The Cubs battle cry for years has been "Next Year". The Chicago Sports media would gladly applaud the organization for selling its soul to the underworld for just one title today.

[goldy313]

Goldy..The talk in Chicago sports media is NOT that the Cubs organization blew out their arms, the talk is that Wood has been an injury waiting to happen. Steve Stone has been saying it since 1998. He was right and that's why he left the Cubs. Long brewing tension between the Cubs and the critical but correct and honest tandem of Chip Carey and Steve Stone came to a head two years ago with Wood and his sore arm and hurt feelings at the center of it. The talk on Prior is that he is a panzy. Prior has been hurt for the better part of three years, yet he has never torn, broken, ripped, or dislocated anything. His injuries never show up on an X-ray or MRI and usually consist of tightness, stiffness, tweaks, discomfort, zings, and cramps. Mark Prior has an agent that is looking out for his next contract not his next start. The Chicago sports media has mostly given up on Prior and Wood, but never have I heard that the Cubs overworked them too early in their career.

Dusty Baker is a boob, he has been criticized because his teams' inablility to execute fundamenals and for not holding his players accountable for ridiculous behavior. Behavior such as Kent Mercher physically threatening Steve Stone on a team flight for giving Roy Oswalt compliments during a telecast. However, one thing Dusty has never been criticized for is using Prior and Wood too much too early in their careers.

That is about as false a statement as I have ever heard, just today in the Harball Times there's an article ripping Baker, May 15 in the Chicago Tribune Phil Rogers has another, all about how he wrecks arms . Jay Mariotti of the Sun - Times bangs the drum weekly on how Baker wrecked the Cubs future by killing Wood and Prior. Fox sports scouting report on Prior talks about Baker running up his pitch count early on. The list is nearly endless, never is there anyone praising his handling of pitchers. The biggest complaint on Baker is how he can't manage a pitching staff. You can't honestly say you have never heard Baker criticizied for his handling of his pitchers or you don't read a whole lot.

A MRI showed Prior fractured his elbow last May after being hit by a line drive, but that's not an injury?

The best article www.nysun.com/article/10687?page_no=2

[Irishmans Shanty]

I stand corrected, Mark Prior did have a real injury, the line drive he was hit by was a direct result of the fact that it happened on his 101st delivery.
When it comes to Chicago media here are some people you need to familiarize yourself with on a daily basis. 1) Dan McNeil (espn radio 1000) 2) Dan Bernstein&Terry Boers (score sports radio 670) 3) Steve Rosenbloom (Chicago Tribune Columnist) 4) Steve Stone

Jay Mariotti does support everything you say, but you also have to know that he trumpeted the fact that the White Sox could never win a world series if he owned the team. Therefore he must focus his attention on the Cubs now that he can no longer sell papers with White Sox analysis.

[ChrisK]

I really don't know much about the Cubs, so it's kinda fun to read you guys going back and forth here. Anyone still think the Twins made the wrong call in drafting Mauer over Prior?

One thing to remember is that pitching is not a natural motion and is very stressful on the arm and shoulder. True, some guys do have a rubber arm, the problem is how do you know who those guys are? The pitch count is probably a reaction to the days when guys would be sent out there to try to pitch through pain and end up blowing out their arms. The problem is you might not see the results of overuse until it's too late so I think it's better to err on the side of caution. I hear you packerboy, my son's in 12 and under Little League and I'd like to see the number of innings limited to two per game rather than a pitch count simply because it allows more kids the opportunity to try pitching.

[Irishmans Shanty]

Correction: My Post of earlier sounds like Jay Mariotti is the Sox owner, the "he" should have been "The Chairman" Jerry Riensdorf.

Thanks ChrisK for bringing me back, I sounded like a disgruntled Cub fan for a while. Mauer can play everyday and Prior plays one in five. It's just my opinion, but I'll take the everyday player over a pitcher any day. In additon, I believe the highly touted position player pans out more often than the pitcher does.

[sterfry9]

mauer seems to be working out just fine....but what if the twins did draft prior maybe they woulda treated him a little different...as in working him into the big leagues like they did with liriano....we did need a catcher more then we probably needed to draft a pitcher

[packerboy]

On the issue of Mauer over Prior , or anyone else that year, one thing must be kept in mind.

The draft of Mauer allows them to trade AJ for Liriano, Nathan , and Bonser. It may turn out to be the single best deal in Twins history.

[ChrisK]

Part of the question was picking a high school player over a college player. When Prior helped the Cubs make the playoffs there was talk that the Twins had gone cheap again because they didn't want to pay Prior, who would command a higher initial salary than Mauer. Generally though, high school position players pan out better than pitchers plus pitchers usually are more of a gamble than position players, so it seemed like even at that time the Twins hadn't made a bad decision. And packerboy makes a really good point, one that I don't think has really been brought up much.

Looking at the box score, it appears that Radke actually had a good game last night! And Silva got a hold too! The moon must have been full or something. Too bad the bullpen and fielding broke down later in the game.

[packerboy]

As his earliest and maybe bigest critic, I must say he did well last night.

Angels let him off the hook a couple of times but he did well to hang in for a quality start.

He didnt give up that big hit that we have seen all year. But what is the deal with the defense letting him down and now Hunter in a funk again and White getting picked off and Crain throwing it away and on and on.

This team does not look sharp.....Gardy.

[goldy313]

While the bullpen did it's job and the defense let the Twins down yesterday, I was suprised Gardy pulled Radke, he looked better in the 6th than he had all game and possibly all year. He only had a 103 pitches and he has shown the ability to go over 120 without ill effects in the past.

I agree Packerboy that was a bad loss, the Twins were starting to get some breaks and momentum, then the defense, and more to the point the veterens in White and Castillo made bad mistakes that pulled defeat from the jaws of victory. Gardy then gets on Rincon? Sure he gave up a leadoff walk, but the scorekeeper was more than generous in not giving Morneau and Castillo errors in the late innings.