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Zach Halverson tweeted something to the effect that Chan over Tonka is one of the biggest section upsets ever.

While I disagree that it was that big (an upset for sure, but Chan was objectively one of the top-5 teams throughout the year), got me to thinking about those upsets. Here's some off the top of my head:

-86: Richfield over Edina
-96: WBL over Hill Murray
-99: Chaska over Wayzata (only one I can think of where an 8 took down a 1 in the section quarters)
-00: Edina over Eden Prairie
-00: Osseo over Elk River
-06: Apple Valley over Holy Angels
-13: Wayzata over Benilde
-17: Wayzata over Edina

I'm sure I'm missing others.

2016 Cretin over an undefeated BSM team in the semis

Would be a fun project using pagestat.... at least to get the answer back to 98

Didn’t Armstrong beat EP as a 7 or 8 one year?

2011 WBL over HM
92 Mounds View over WBL

2012 4AA Quarterfinal
(7) Saint Paul Johnson 6
(2) White Bear Lake 5
Final-OT

Roundup: Incredible rally sees Johnson top White Bear Lake in OT. Governors score four goals in final five minutes of regulation to force extra period

SECTION 4: Down 5-1 with five minutes remaining in the third period, it appeared the season was over for No. 7 seed St. Paul Johnson. But the Governors scored five unanswered goals, including an overtime game-winner from senior Jay Dickman, to stun No. 2 seed White Bear Lake 6-5 in the quarterfinals Saturday. Senior defenseman Jake Gallivan scored two goals in a two-minute span before Dickman added another to pull Johnson within a goal with 2 minutes, 12 seconds remaining in regulation. Fellow senior Bryan Standly then tied the score with just over a minute remaining on a goal assisted by Dickman and Gallivan, before Dickman scored the winner 4minutes, 40 seconds into the extra session.

Doc Holliday wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 12:50 pm Zach Halverson tweeted something to the effect that Chan over Tonka is one of the biggest section upsets ever.

While I disagree that it was that big (an upset for sure, but Chan was objectively one of the top-5 teams throughout the year), got me to thinking about those upsets. Here's some off the top of my head:

-86: Richfield over Edina
-96: WBL over Hill Murray
-99: Chaska over Wayzata (only one I can think of where an 8 took down a 1 in the section quarters)
-00: Edina over Eden Prairie
-00: Osseo over Elk River
-06: Apple Valley over Holy Angels
-13: Wayzata over Benilde
-17: Wayzata over Edina

I'm sure I'm missing others.

Last night we had a top 5 team beating a team regarding by nearly all as top 1. Upset? Yes. One of the biggest? Hardly.

Lee

If we're talking about greatest upsets, it's got to be an upset of a team that was a real threat to win the state championship, and that was not the case with White Bear.

The '86 Richfield over Edina upset was big, and it came on the heels of a nearly as big upset of a very good Tonka in the semis.

In '87 a .500-ish Edina took down a very good Tonka in a huge upset. I recall it very well, It was a very warm March Saturday, it might have got to 70. I thought it was a bit crazy to spend the afternoon inside the Met, but in the end there was no question where I'd be. The Jefferson-Kennedy game was the undercard at noon. When the Edina-Tonka game began, the seats were full, and the aisle ringing the arena between the upper and lower seats was had people all around it. As the game wore on, some people from the first game did leave.

Those Edina and RIchfield teams had absolutely no business winning those games over teams that would have surprised no one to win it all, and that is what, to me, makes them great upsets.

Now in 2011, Hill was the #1 team, but not until then end of the season. That year, the #1 was the kiss of death. I don't recall another year where it changed so often, possibly every week. Rankings would come out, and the #1 would lose before a week passed. But we certainly did have a good chance at state.

Doc Holliday wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 12:50 pm Zach Halverson tweeted something to the effect that Chan over Tonka is one of the biggest section upsets ever.

While I disagree that it was that big (an upset for sure, but Chan was objectively one of the top-5 teams throughout the year), got me to thinking about those upsets. Here's some off the top of my head:

-86: Richfield over Edina
-96: WBL over Hill Murray
-99: Chaska over Wayzata (only one I can think of where an 8 took down a 1 in the section quarters)
-00: Edina over Eden Prairie
-00: Osseo over Elk River
-06: Apple Valley over Holy Angels
-13: Wayzata over Benilde
-17: Wayzata over Edina

I'm sure I'm missing others.

-99: Chaska over Wayzata (only one I can think of where an 8 took down a 1 in the section quarters)

I played on that Chaska team. Hell, I scored the OT game winner against Wayazata!

Clarification, Richfield defeated Edina in the 1986 semi. The other game at Met Center that night was Armstrong-Minnetonka.

I saw Zach Halvorson’s comment as well and realized he obviously doesn’t follow high school hockey closely.

There’s not a player in that game for either team that felt Chanhassen was less than a 3:2 underdog. The same kids played three times in the past year and Minnetonka never won in regulation.

The51 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 1:29 pm Would be a fun project using pagestat.... at least to get the answer back to 98

Looking at this (so much for a lazy week!). Should have some results tonight

Lee

Brodziak Fan Club wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 1:38 pm Didn’t Armstrong beat EP as a 7 or 8 one year?

Found it.

2011-12 #7 seed Armstrong entered with a record of 6-17-2 and beat #2 seed and defending state champion Eden Prairie who entered with a record of 17-7-1.

edit: pagestat had EP as a 4.63 goal favorite that night.

east hockey wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2024 4:02 pm

The51 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 1:29 pm Would be a fun project using pagestat.... at least to get the answer back to 98

Looking at this (so much for a lazy week!). Should have some results tonight

Lee

Lee, have you done any experimenting with “home-edge” stats? Wondering if there is a definitive home ice advantage in high school hockey, and what it might be.

If we want to get real granular, I wonder about a “miles traveled” disadvantage. The ol’ bus legs theory.

Anyways, I digress .

Brodziak Fan Club wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2024 7:32 pm

east hockey wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2024 4:02 pm

The51 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 1:29 pm Would be a fun project using pagestat.... at least to get the answer back to 98

Looking at this (so much for a lazy week!). Should have some results tonight

Lee

Lee, have you done any experimenting with “home-edge” stats? Wondering if there is a definitive home ice advantage in high school hockey, and what it might be.

If we want to get real granular, I wonder about a “miles traveled” disadvantage. The ol’ bus legs theory.

Anyways, I digress .

Interesting digression.

This is just a start but PageStat took a look at the 20 biggest upsets from 1998-2024. More content will be added tomorrow.

https://www.leepagen.com/blog20240304.htm

Lee

east hockey wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:10 pm This is just a start but PageStat took a look at the 20 biggest upsets from 1998-2024. More content will be added tomorrow.

https://www.leepagen.com/blog20240304.htm

Lee

Didnt SSP make the tourney in 2004

cjmhockey19 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2024 11:24 pm

east hockey wrote: ↑Mon Mar 04, 2024 10:10 pm This is just a start but PageStat took a look at the 20 biggest upsets from 1998-2024. More content will be added tomorrow.

https://www.leepagen.com/blog20240304.htm

Lee

Didnt SSP make the tourney in 2004

They did. That should read Spring Lake Park over St Louis Park, which was actually a bigger upset than them beating South St Paul would have been. Correction has been made. Nice catch!

Lee

What about Little Falls over Apollo in 2016 Semifinals? I believe Apollo was #1 in single A at the time.

Mite-dad wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 11:10 am What about Little Falls over Apollo in 2016 Semifinals? I believe Apollo was #1 in single A at the time.

I believe Apollo was #3 in the state for Class A that year, they were a heck of team playing only 2 lines and 3 D, behind Hermantown (Eventual Champ) & Breck (Eventual Runner up)

Little Falls got revenge for the Apollo #9 seed over #1 seed Playoff shocker from a few years prior. I believe this upset also ended the Apollo programs as it folded in the offseason due to low numbers and they then created the St Cloud Public AA team.

That was was very nice win for Coaching Legend Tony Couture however, the Section Final vs Cathedral that year did not go as well

Have added some more stuff to the blog entry.

Lee

east hockey wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 7:26 pm Have added some more stuff to the blog entry.

Lee

2019 Greenway over Hermantown

cjmhockey19 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 10:42 pm

east hockey wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 7:26 pm Have added some more stuff to the blog entry.

Lee

2019 Greenway over Hermantown

That topped the Class A Finals list.

Lee

east hockey wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 8:53 am

cjmhockey19 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 10:42 pm

east hockey wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 7:26 pm Have added some more stuff to the blog entry.

Lee

2019 Greenway over Hermantown

That topped the Class A Finals list.

Lee

It reads Marshall

cjmhockey19 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 10:32 am

east hockey wrote: ↑Wed Mar 06, 2024 8:53 am

cjmhockey19 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 05, 2024 10:42 pm

2019 Greenway over Hermantown

That topped the Class A Finals list.

Lee

It reads Marshall

It doesn't any more. See what happens when I don't proofread my stuff?

Lee