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WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

https://ushsho.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=38644

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WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2022 11:36 pm
by LSQRANK
Here are this week's rating values for the girls. Below I give a little numerical example of how to compute the predicted game score differentials between any two teams. The last column (Qxx) is the values that you need to use for each team. For the time being, use Qij = 0.031 for the off-diagonal term, it will be close enough. From another's post, it has Lakeville South seeded 1st and Rochester Century seeded 8th, so I assume that these two teams will play each other in the first round of the playoffs. If that is the case, its a pretty sure bet that Lakeville South will beat Rochester Century by 11 to 13 goals given a full length (3x 17min) game. Hard to say what effect running time protocol will have in the 3rd period, sometimes the leading team tries harder to score, sometimes not. My hunch is that it will be 10-zip LVS at the start of the 3rd period.

Code: Select all

WEEK 13: Feb 06, 2022
Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings

*All game score results are weighted equally

Global Snot = 2.442

C.I.  =  MOV  +/-  MOE 

MOE = ([t(alpha)] * Snot * Sqrt( Qii + Qjj  - 2Qij ))

Use Qij = 0.031  for all future game predictions

Confidence
Level         Alpha     t-value
--------------------------------
68%           0.32       1.000
90%           0.10       1.645
95%           0.05       1.960
99%           0.01       2.575 

Example
-------
Calculate a 90% Confidence Interval for the score differential between a first round
playoff game for section 1AA between Lakeville_South and Rochester_Century

Ratings for both teams are:

Lakeville_South      996.8110           Qii = 0.0934
Rochester_Century    984.8070           Qjj = 0.0970
                     --------
     Predicted MOV =  12.004   ===> 12 goals           
	 
	 MOE =  (1.645)(2.442)* Sqrt( 0.0934 + 0.0970 - 2*(0.031) )  =  1.44
	 
Answer:  90% C.I.  =   [ 10.564 ... 13.444 ]
         95% C.I.  =   [ 10.288 ... 13.720 ]

Interpretation :  We are 90% confident that the interval from [10.564 to 13.444] will contain
                  the true value of the game score differential for the future girls HS
				  ice  hockey game between Lakeville_South and Rochester_Century 	 
	 
	 

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     1   MN 1000.0000                   Andover  MSHSL   7  AA     24  (24- 0- 0)   0.000  0.0000
     2   MN  999.3031                     Edina  MSHSL   6  AA     25  (23- 2- 0)   0.697  0.0814
     3   MN  999.0556                Minnetonka  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (19- 6- 0)   0.684  0.0785	 
     4   MN  997.6774                HolyFamily  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (20- 4- 1)   0.712  0.0851
     5   MN  997.6741                   Warroad  MSHSL   8   A     24  (20- 3- 1)   0.699  0.0818
     6   MN  997.5679                   Wayzata  MSHSL   6  AA     25  (16- 8- 1)   0.695  0.0810
     7   MN  997.5331     Benilde-St.Margaret's  MSHSL   6  AA     24  (18- 5- 1)   0.711  0.0847
     8   MN  997.1430             GentryAcademy  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (18- 6- 0)   0.707  0.0839
     9   MN  996.8679                MapleGrove  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (17- 6- 2)   0.678  0.0770
    10   MN  996.8110            LakevilleSouth  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (23- 2- 0)   0.747  0.0934
	
    11   MN  996.7978                     Orono  MSHSL   5   A     25  (22- 3- 0)   0.728  0.0889
    12   MN  996.6281               Hill-Murray  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (16- 8- 0)   0.704  0.0832
    13   MN  996.5379                    Rogers  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (19- 4- 2)   0.694  0.0807
    14   MN  996.2374 Centennial/SpringLakePark  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (16- 8- 1)   0.691  0.0801
    15   MN  996.2218                Stillwater  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (13- 9- 2)   0.712  0.0851
    16   MN  996.0761                     Blake  MSHSL   6  AA     23  (13-10- 0)   0.716  0.0859
    17   MN  995.8836         NorthWrightCounty  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (14-10- 1)   0.711  0.0847
    18   MN  995.8732                Burnsville  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (19- 5- 1)   0.745  0.0931
    19   MN  995.8353        Proctor/Hermantown  MSHSL   7   A     25  (16- 7- 2)   0.703  0.0828
    20   MN  995.3119        ElkRiver/Zimmerman  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (12-12- 1)   0.691  0.0801
	
    21   MN  995.2051                 Rosemount  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (17- 8- 0)   0.748  0.0939
    22   MN  994.9724                HolyAngels  MSHSL   5   A     25  (20- 4- 1)   0.732  0.0897
    23   MN  994.9422         Cretin-DerhamHall  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (16- 7- 2)   0.721  0.0872
    24   MN  994.8649                    Blaine  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (11-11- 3)   0.693  0.0805
    25   MN  994.7056      GrandRapids-Greenway  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (17- 8- 0)   0.704  0.0831
    26   MN  994.3860             MoundWestonka  MSHSL   5   A     25  (19- 6- 0)   0.727  0.0885
    27   MN  994.3128                 Roseville  MSHSL   4  AA     25  (15- 8- 2)   0.719  0.0866
    28   MN  994.3077                  Moorhead  MSHSL   8  AA     25  (17- 8- 0)   0.723  0.0877
    29   MN  994.1265   ChamplinPark/CoonRapids  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (13-11- 1)   0.693  0.0806
    30   MN  994.1120                    Simley  MSHSL   4   A     25  (18- 4- 3)   0.731  0.0896
	
    31   MN  994.0113                Alexandria  MSHSL   8  AA     23  (12-10- 1)   0.744  0.0928
    32   MN  993.9329                  Eastview  MSHSL   3  AA     24  (11-12- 1)   0.755  0.0957
    33   MN  993.9076               EdenPrairie  MSHSL   2  AA     24  ( 8-16- 0)   0.721  0.0871
    34   MN  993.8616                  Shakopee  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (10-15- 0)   0.745  0.0929
    35   MN  993.6948            LakevilleNorth  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (11-13- 1)   0.752  0.0947
    36   MN  993.6805      Brainerd/LittleFalls  MSHSL   8  AA     24  (13-11- 0)   0.734  0.0903
    37   MN  993.4794         Chaska/Chanhassen  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (11-14- 0)   0.730  0.0893
    38   MN  993.4321                Northfield  MSHSL   1  AA     24  (16- 5- 3)   0.744  0.0928
    39   MN  993.4180                Farmington  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (11-14- 0)   0.748  0.0937
    40   MN  993.3624                 EastRidge  MSHSL   4  AA     25  (14-10- 1)   0.727  0.0886
	
    41   MN  993.3344            DuluthMarshall  MSHSL   7   A     22  (15- 7- 0)   0.750  0.0943
    42   MN  993.2036                    Roseau  MSHSL   8  AA     24  (14- 8- 2)   0.735  0.0907
    43   MN  993.1737          Osseo/ParkCenter  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (11-14- 0)   0.696  0.0813
    44   MN  993.1713               SouthStPaul  MSHSL   4   A     25  (13-10- 2)   0.725  0.0882
    45   MN  993.1179                ForestLake  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (13-12- 0)   0.708  0.0841
    46   ND  993.0840               FargoDavies  NDHSL   0   A     19  (18- 1- 0)   0.951  0.1517
    47   MN  992.9958                MoundsView  MSHSL   5  AA     24  (12-12- 0)   0.728  0.0888
    48   MN  992.9448               DodgeCounty  MSHSL   1  AA     26  (15-11- 0)   0.721  0.0871
    49   ND  992.7240          FargoNorth/South  NDHSL   0   A     19  (13- 6- 0)   0.947  0.1503
    50   MN  992.7154               AppleValley  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (10-13- 2)   0.746  0.0934
	
    51   MN  992.4880              ChisagoLakes  MSHSL   4   A     25  (11-13- 1)   0.720  0.0868
    52   MN  992.4617                  St.Cloud  MSHSL   8  AA     24  (13- 9- 2)   0.744  0.0927
    53   MN  992.3681               FergusFalls  MSHSL   6   A     24  (18- 4- 2)   0.744  0.0929
    54   MN  992.2759               Minneapolis  MSHSL   5   A     25  ( 8-16- 1)   0.732  0.0898
    55   MN  992.1539      Cloquet-Esko-Carlton  MSHSL   7   A     25  (18- 6- 1)   0.726  0.0884
    56   MN  992.1364                     Eagan  MSHSL   3  AA     25  ( 5-19- 1)   0.747  0.0936
    57   MN  992.1320                     Anoka  MSHSL   7  AA     25  ( 7-18- 0)   0.695  0.0810
    58   MN  992.1179                  Woodbury  MSHSL   4  AA     25  (14-11- 0)   0.727  0.0885
    59   MN  992.1013                   Luverne  MSHSL   3   A     23  (20- 3- 0)   0.788  0.1041
    60   MN  992.0043      BloomingtonJefferson  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (12-13- 0)   0.731  0.0895
	
    61   MN  991.9922                    NewUlm  MSHSL   3   A     24  (21- 3- 0)   0.766  0.0985
    62   MN  991.9735                 PriorLake  MSHSL   2  AA     25  ( 6-18- 1)   0.748  0.0938
    63   MN  991.8493                  Owatonna  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (15- 8- 2)   0.738  0.0914
    64   WI  991.7098                   BayArea   WIAA   2   A     23  (20- 2- 1)   0.896  0.1345
    65   MN  991.6718                RiverLakes  MSHSL   6   A     25  (14-11- 0)   0.739  0.0915
    66   MN  991.6120             MooseLakeArea  MSHSL   7   A     25  (18- 6- 1)   0.736  0.0908
    67   MN  991.5381       NorthSt.Paul/Tartan  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (15- 9- 0)   0.745  0.0930
    68   MN  991.4752         TwoRivers/St.Paul  MSHSL   4   A     25  (13-11- 1)   0.730  0.0894
    69   WI  991.4067            FoxCitiesStars   WIAA   2   A     22  (18- 3- 1)   0.900  0.1357
    70   MN  991.2884          Armstrong/Cooper  MSHSL   6  AA     25  (11-13- 1)   0.698  0.0817
	
    71   MN  991.1279                   Buffalo  MSHSL   8  AA     25  ( 5-18- 2)   0.716  0.0860
    72   MN  991.1112          Hibbing/Chisholm  MSHSL   7   A     25  (11-12- 2)   0.730  0.0893
    73   MN  991.0980                 NewPrague  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (10-12- 3)   0.737  0.0910
    74   MN  991.0598           MinnehahaUnited  MSHSL   6  AA     24  (17- 7- 0)   0.744  0.0929
    75   MN  990.8243           MNIceCougars19U   NGHL   0  T1      3  ( 3- 0- 0)   2.221  0.8273
    76   MN  990.7233                   Willmar  MSHSL   6   A     25  (13-12- 0)   0.747  0.0935
    77   MN  990.6888           Delano/Rockford  MSHSL   5   A     25  (13-11- 1)   0.729  0.0891
    78   WI  990.5526          CentralWisconsin   WIAA   1   A     21  (18- 3- 0)   0.893  0.1337
    79   MN  990.5387                 Crookston  MSHSL   8   A     22  (14- 7- 1)   0.769  0.0990
    80   MN  990.4707             WhiteBearLake  MSHSL   4  AA     25  ( 5-19- 1)   0.720  0.0869
	
    81   MN  990.4466                    Duluth  MSHSL   7  AA     24  ( 6-18- 0)   0.728  0.0889
    82   MN  990.4408                  Hastings  MSHSL   3  AA     25  ( 8-16- 1)   0.730  0.0894
    83   MN  990.4221               MankatoEast  MSHSL   2   A     24  (19- 5- 0)   0.766  0.0984
    84   MN  990.3882        ParkofCottageGrove  MSHSL   3  AA     25  ( 8-17- 0)   0.730  0.0893
    85   MN  990.3136                     Breck  MSHSL   5   A     21  ( 1-19- 1)   0.751  0.0946
    86   ND  990.2906                     Minot  NDHSL   0   A     19  (12- 7- 0)   0.964  0.1557
    87   ND  990.2744                  Bismarck  NDHSL   0   A     19  (10- 5- 4)   0.945  0.1498
    88   WI  990.0388          WesternWisconsin   WIAA   1   A     23  (16- 7- 0)   0.818  0.1121
    89   MN  990.0237        Sartell/SaukRapids  MSHSL   8  AA     25  ( 6-17- 2)   0.736  0.0909
    90   WI  989.9677                 MetroLynx   WIAA   2   A     21  (18- 3- 0)   0.935  0.1466
	
    91   MN  989.7635                   Bemidji  MSHSL   8  AA     24  ( 4-18- 2)   0.736  0.0908
    92   MN  989.7544              Hopkins/Park  MSHSL   6  AA     25  ( 7-18- 0)   0.719  0.0866
    93   ND  989.5882           WestFargoUnited  NDHSL   0   A     19  (11- 5- 3)   0.956  0.1532
    94   ND  989.5852                    Mandan  NDHSL   0   A     17  (10- 6- 1)   1.012  0.1718
    95   MN  989.3377             NorthernLakes  MSHSL   6   A     25  (14-10- 1)   0.744  0.0927
    96   WI  989.1099            St.CroixValley   WIAA   1   A     22  (14- 8- 0)   0.844  0.1195
    97   WI  988.9762                  Onalaska   WIAA   2   A     21  (17- 4- 0)   0.884  0.1311
    98   MN  988.9395            EastGrandForks  MSHSL   8   A     19  ( 6-13- 0)   0.814  0.1111
    99   WI  988.8153                  Warbirds   WIAA   2   A     21  (13- 7- 1)   0.910  0.1387
   100   WI  988.7054              HaywardCo-Op   WIAA   1   A     23  (15- 8- 0)   0.846  0.1200
   
   101   WI  988.5785                    Hudson   WIAA   1   A     20  ( 9-11- 0)   0.817  0.1118
   102   MN  988.3378           ThiefRiverFalls  MSHSL   8   A     23  ( 5-16- 2)   0.758  0.0963
   103   MN  988.3207              PineCityArea  MSHSL   5   A     24  ( 9-14- 1)   0.743  0.0926
   104   MN  988.2645  Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato  MSHSL   2   A     25  (11-13- 1)   0.744  0.0929
   105   MN  988.2035                Visitation  MSHSL   4   A     23  (11-11- 1)   0.751  0.0946
   106   MN  988.0945              NorthernTier  MSHSL   7  AA     24  ( 5-19- 0)   0.730  0.0894
   107   MN  988.0939       Irondale/St.Anthony  MSHSL   5  AA     25  ( 4-20- 1)   0.726  0.0882
   108   SD  987.9396                SiouxFalls  SDAHA   0   A     19  (16- 3- 0)   1.377  0.3178
   109   ND  987.9072                GrandForks  NDHSL   0   A     20  ( 7-12- 1)   0.953  0.1524
   110   MN  987.8143                 Mahtomedi  MSHSL   4  AA     24  ( 3-21- 0)   0.735  0.0905
   
   111   MN  987.7916                  Marshall  MSHSL   3   A     25  (11-13- 1)   0.766  0.0984
   112   ND  987.7810                 Jamestown  NDHSL   0   A     18  ( 8- 8- 2)   1.008  0.1703
   113   WI  987.7266                 CFMSabers   WIAA   1   A     20  (11- 9- 0)   0.871  0.1270
   114   MN  987.4365                Hutchinson  MSHSL   2   A     24  ( 3-20- 1)   0.740  0.0918
   115   MN  987.4041                 AlbertLea  MSHSL   1   A     23  (12-10- 1)   0.771  0.0996
   116   WI  987.2963          SuperiorSpartans   WIAA   1   A     23  ( 7-16- 0)   0.777  0.1012
   117   WI  987.2058               USMWildcats   WIAA   2   A     22  (12- 9- 1)   0.871  0.1271
   118   MN  987.0185            MinnesotaRiver  MSHSL   2   A     24  (12-12- 0)   0.779  0.1018
   119   MN  986.9924                   Waconia  MSHSL   2   A     24  ( 4-19- 1)   0.743  0.0925
   120   WI  986.8011           BlackRiverFalls   WIAA   1   A     23  (10-13- 0)   0.873  0.1277
   
   121   MN  986.7738                 RockRidge  MSHSL   7   A     23  ( 7-16- 0)   0.751  0.0945
   122   NE  986.7666     OmahaLadyJrLancers19U   NGHL   0  T1      4  ( 1- 3- 0)   2.082  0.7270
   123   MN  986.7657                    Austin  MSHSL   1   A     23  (13-10- 0)   0.786  0.1036
   124   WI  986.7554                 Lightning   WIAA   2   A     20  ( 9-10- 1)   0.937  0.1473
   125   WI  986.7086             EauClaireArea   WIAA   1   A     22  ( 4-17- 1)   0.871  0.1271
   126   MN  986.3972                NorthShore  MSHSL   7   A     25  ( 7-18- 0)   0.744  0.0929
   127   WI  986.3848                   Viroqua   WIAA   2   A     18  ( 9- 8- 1)   0.967  0.1566
   128   MN  986.1877             RochesterMayo  MSHSL   1  AA     25  ( 9-16- 0)   0.761  0.0971
   129   SD  986.0138                  Mitchell  SDAHA   0   A     16  (14- 2- 0)   1.469  0.3617
   130   WI  985.9440                  Icebergs   WIAA   2   A     20  ( 8-12- 0)   0.948  0.1507
   
   131   WI  985.7653            CapCityCougars   WIAA   2   A     22  (12-10- 0)   0.931  0.1452
   132   WI  985.6117            NorthlandPines   WIAA   1   A     17  ( 9- 8- 0)   0.954  0.1525
   133   WI  985.0792                RockCounty   WIAA   2   A     22  ( 7-13- 2)   0.922  0.1425
   134   MN  984.9782     MinnetonkaSkippers19U   MAHA   0   B      6  ( 3- 1- 2)   2.296  0.8836
   135   MN  984.8344                    Windom  MSHSL   3   A     21  ( 8-13- 0)   0.810  0.1101
   136   MN  984.8070          RochesterCentury  MSHSL   1  AA     24  ( 6-17- 1)   0.761  0.0970
   137   ND  984.6972                 Williston  NDHSL   0   A     18  ( 3-14- 1)   1.010  0.1709
   138   MN  984.6334     Breckenridge-Wahpeton  MSHSL   6   A     10  ( 5- 5- 0)   0.973  0.1586
   139   MN  984.4145                  Fairmont  MSHSL   3   A     21  ( 6-12- 3)   0.810  0.1101
   140   MN  984.2793                 Princeton  MSHSL   7  AA     25  ( 2-23- 0)   0.731  0.0896
   
   141   WI  983.7464                Brookfield   WIAA   2   A     22  ( 6-15- 1)   0.912  0.1394
   142   WI  983.4800           BadgerLightning   WIAA   2   A     19  ( 7-12- 0)   0.966  0.1564
   143   MN  983.4782          BlaineIceCats19U   MAHA   0   B     12  ( 6- 4- 2)   2.007  0.6752
   144   SD  983.4560                  Aberdeen  SDAHA   0   A     20  (12- 8- 0)   1.343  0.3023
   145   ND  983.4140                 Dickinson  NDHSL   0   A     16  ( 4-12- 0)   1.037  0.1803
   146   WI  983.1804                 Arrowhead   WIAA   2   A     18  ( 4-14- 0)   0.956  0.1533
   147   MN  983.0764                   RedWing  MSHSL   4   A     23  ( 4-19- 0)   0.763  0.0976
   148   WI  982.8549            WisValleyUnion   WIAA   1   A     21  ( 3-18- 0)   0.898  0.1353
   149   MN  982.6683               MankatoWest  MSHSL   2   A     24  ( 4-19- 1)   0.772  0.0999
   150   MN  982.6642                    Waseca  MSHSL   1   A     24  ( 4-18- 2)   0.778  0.1015
   
   151   WI  982.5840              NorthernEdge   WIAA   1   A     11  ( 1-10- 0)   1.052  0.1855
   152   MN  982.4662               Worthington  MSHSL   3   A     23  ( 5-18- 0)   0.793  0.1053
   153   ND  982.1505                Langdon19U  NDAHA   0   B     15  (13- 2- 0)   1.399  0.3279
   154   MN  981.9782           EdinaHornets19U   MAHA   0   B      5  ( 1- 4- 0)   2.296  0.8836
   155   MN  981.9110             PrairieCentre  MSHSL   6   A     22  ( 5-16- 1)   0.777  0.1011
   156   ND  981.8700              Bottineau19U  NDAHA   0   B     25  (15- 9- 1)   1.222  0.2503
   157   MN  981.7617                    Winona  MSHSL   1   A     17  ( 0-17- 0)   0.839  0.1180
   158   IL  981.5656           ChicagoHawks16U   NIHL   0  T2      4  ( 3- 0- 1)   1.998  0.6692
   159   ND  981.3162                  Minot19U  NDAHA   0   B      9  ( 8- 1- 0)   1.494  0.3740
   160   NE  981.0656     OmahaLadyJrLancers16U   NGHL   0  T2      4  ( 2- 1- 1)   1.998  0.6692
   
   161   ND  980.9552                 Mandan19U  NDAHA   0   B     18  (11- 6- 1)   1.362  0.3111
   162   ND  980.9119                DevilsLake  NDHSL   0   A     18  ( 2-16- 0)   0.993  0.1653
   163   SD  980.6959                      Oahe  SDAHA   0   A     16  ( 4- 9- 3)   1.480  0.3670
   164   ND  980.6309              Williston19U  NDAHA   0   B     14  ( 8- 6- 0)   1.402  0.3295
   165   SD  980.6045                 Brookings  SDAHA   0   A     17  ( 8- 9- 0)   1.429  0.3425
   166   SD  980.2121               SiouxCenter  SDAHA   0   A     16  ( 3-12- 1)   1.469  0.3616
   167   ND  980.1089                 Crosby19U  NDAHA   0   B     11  ( 4- 6- 1)   1.453  0.3538
   168   MN  979.9411         Morris/BensonArea  MSHSL   6   A     22  ( 2-19- 1)   0.778  0.1015
   169   SD  979.8466                 Watertown  SDAHA   0   A     19  (10- 9- 0)   1.466  0.3601
   170   SD  979.4614                     Huron  SDAHA   0   A     16  ( 5-10- 1)   1.471  0.3626
   
   171   SD  979.4469                  Rushmore  SDAHA   0   A     16  ( 6-10- 0)   1.479  0.3667
   172   ND  979.2910            WatfordCity19U  NDAHA   0   B     18  ( 6-12- 0)   1.318  0.2913
   173   MN  979.2299              DetroitLakes  MSHSL   8   A     23  ( 4-19- 0)   0.768  0.0989
   174   WI  979.0718                   Medford   WIAA   1   A     15  ( 2-13- 0)   0.981  0.1615
   175   ND  979.0030               Bismarck19U  NDAHA   0   B     14  ( 4-10- 0)   1.412  0.3342
   176   SD  978.2846                   Yankton  SDAHA   0   A     19  ( 1-17- 1)   1.460  0.3574
   177   MN  978.1653        InternationalFalls  MSHSL   8   A     20  ( 0-20- 0)   0.791  0.1049
   178   ND  977.1041              Northwood19U  NDAHA   0   B     16  ( 3-13- 0)   1.390  0.3241
   179   WI  976.3037                 BeaverDam   WIAA   2   A     17  ( 0-17- 0)   0.989  0.1639
   180   MN  974.9552                 Duluth19U   MAHA   0   B      1  ( 0- 1- 0)   2.796  1.3111
   181   ND  973.2200               Richland19U  NDAHA   0   B     12  ( 0-12- 0)   1.426  0.3410

Re: WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:04 am
by LSQRANK
1st round Calculations for section 1AA

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    10   MN  996.8110            LakevilleSouth  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (23- 2- 0)   0.747  0.0934
    35   MN  993.6948            LakevilleNorth  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (11-13- 1)   0.752  0.0947
    38   MN  993.4321                Northfield  MSHSL   1  AA     24  (16- 5- 3)   0.744  0.0928
    39   MN  993.4180                Farmington  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (11-14- 0)   0.748  0.0937
    48   MN  992.9448               DodgeCounty  MSHSL   1  AA     26  (15-11- 0)   0.721  0.0871
    63   MN  991.8493                  Owatonna  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (15- 8- 2)   0.738  0.0914
   128   MN  986.1877             RochesterMayo  MSHSL   1  AA     25  ( 9-16- 0)   0.761  0.0971
   136   MN  984.8070          RochesterCentury  MSHSL   1  AA     24  ( 6-17- 1)   0.761  0.0970


95% MOE = ~ 1.5 goals
   
1AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions
--------------------          ------------------------------------------------------------------         
1 Lakeville South              RochesterCentury @  LakevilleSouth     LVS          win by 12 goals
2 Northfield                   RochesterMayo    @  Northfield         NFLD         win by  7 goals
3 Farmington                   Owatonna         @  Farmington         FARM         win by  2 goals
4 Lakeville North              DodgeCounty      @  LakevilleNorth     LVN* or DC   win by  1 goals in OT
5 Dodge County
6 Owatonna                                                           *slight edge to LVN
7 Rochester Mayo
8 Rochester Century

Re: WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:18 am
by LSQRANK
round 1 calculations foe section 2AA

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     3   MN  999.0556                Minnetonka  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (19- 6- 0)   0.684  0.0785	 
     4   MN  997.6774                HolyFamily  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (20- 4- 1)   0.712  0.0851
    33   MN  993.9076               EdenPrairie  MSHSL   2  AA     24  ( 8-16- 0)   0.721  0.0871
    34   MN  993.8616                  Shakopee  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (10-15- 0)   0.745  0.0929
    37   MN  993.4794         Chaska/Chanhassen  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (11-14- 0)   0.730  0.0893
    60   MN  992.0043      BloomingtonJefferson  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (12-13- 0)   0.731  0.0895
    62   MN  991.9735                 PriorLake  MSHSL   2  AA     25  ( 6-18- 1)   0.748  0.0938
    73   MN  991.0980                 NewPrague  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (10-12- 3)   0.737  0.0910
	
	
2AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Minnetonka                   NewPrague             @   Minnetonka      MNTK        win by   8 goals
2 Holy Family                  PriorLake             @   HolyFamily      HF          win by   6 goals
3 Shakopee                     BloomingtonJefferson  @   Shakopee        SKP         win by   2 goals
4 Eden Prairie                 Chaska/Chanhassen     @   EdenPrairie     EP or CC    win by   1 goal  in OT
5 Chaska/Chanhassen
6 Jefferson
7 Prior Lake
8 New Prague

Re: WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:33 am
by LSQRANK
round 1 calculations for section 3AA

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    18   MN  995.8732                Burnsville  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (19- 5- 1)   0.745  0.0931
    21   MN  995.2051                 Rosemount  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (17- 8- 0)   0.748  0.0939
    23   MN  994.9422         Cretin-DerhamHall  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (16- 7- 2)   0.721  0.0872
    32   MN  993.9329                  Eastview  MSHSL   3  AA     24  (11-12- 1)   0.755  0.0957
    50   MN  992.7154               AppleValley  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (10-13- 2)   0.746  0.0934
    56   MN  992.1364                     Eagan  MSHSL   3  AA     25  ( 5-19- 1)   0.747  0.0936
    82   MN  990.4408                  Hastings  MSHSL   3  AA     25  ( 8-16- 1)   0.730  0.0894
    84   MN  990.3882        ParkofCottageGrove  MSHSL   3  AA     25  ( 8-17- 0)   0.730  0.0893

	
3AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Burnsville                   ParkofCottageGrove     @    Burnsville         BSV           win by  5 goals
2 Cretin-Derham Hall           Hastings               @    Cretin-DerhamHall  CDH           win by  4 goals
3 Rosemount                    Eagan                  @    Rosemount          RSMT          win by  3 goals
4 Eastview                     AppleValley            @   *Eastview           ESTV          win by  1 goal in reg
5 Apple Valley                                                             or APV           win by  1 goal in OT
6 Eagan                                                                   
7 Hastings                                                                    *edge to Eastview
8 Park Cottage Grove	                                               95% CI [ -0.3  to  +2.7 ]

Re: WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 12:52 am
by LSQRANK
round 1 calculations for section 4 AA

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     8   MN  997.1430             GentryAcademy  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (18- 6- 0)   0.707  0.0839
    12   MN  996.6281               Hill-Murray  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (16- 8- 0)   0.704  0.0832
    15   MN  996.2218                Stillwater  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (13- 9- 2)   0.712  0.0851
    27   MN  994.3128                 Roseville  MSHSL   4  AA     25  (15- 8- 2)   0.719  0.0866
    40   MN  993.3624                 EastRidge  MSHSL   4  AA     25  (14-10- 1)   0.727  0.0886
    58   MN  992.1179                  Woodbury  MSHSL   4  AA     25  (14-11- 0)   0.727  0.0885
    67   MN  991.5381       NorthSt.Paul/Tartan  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (15- 9- 0)   0.745  0.0930
    80   MN  990.4707             WhiteBearLake  MSHSL   4  AA     25  ( 5-19- 1)   0.720  0.0869
   110   MN  987.8143                 Mahtomedi  MSHSL   4  AA     24  ( 3-21- 0)   0.735  0.0905
   
   
                               Play-In round:  WhiteBearLake wins by   2 to 3 goals over  Mahtomedi
   
   
3AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions        # Home Ice for both teams at Vandais
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Gentry Academy                #WhiteBearLake         @   #GentryAcademy       GA       win by  7      goals
2 Stillwater                     NorthSt.Paul/Tartan   @    Stillwater          STW      win by  5      goals
3 Hill-Murray                    Woodbury              @    Hill-Murray         HM       win by  3 to 6 goals
4 Roseville                      EastRidge             @   *Roseville           RSV      win by  1      goal in reg
5 East Ridge                                                                or  ESR      ein by  1      goal in OT
6 Woodbury                                                        
7 North/Tartan                                                     *edge to Roseville
8 White Bear Lake                                                  95% CI [ -0.5  to  +2.5 ]
9 Mahtomedi

Re: WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:36 am
by LSQRANK
1st round Calculations for section 6AA

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     2   MN  999.3031                     Edina  MSHSL   6  AA     25  (23- 2- 0)   0.697  0.0814
     6   MN  997.5679                   Wayzata  MSHSL   6  AA     25  (16- 8- 1)   0.695  0.0810
     7   MN  997.5331     Benilde-St.Margaret's  MSHSL   6  AA     24  (18- 5- 1)   0.711  0.0847
    16   MN  996.0761                     Blake  MSHSL   6  AA     23  (13-10- 0)   0.716  0.0859
    70   MN  991.2884          Armstrong/Cooper  MSHSL   6  AA     25  (11-13- 1)   0.698  0.0817
    74   MN  991.0598           MinnehahaUnited  MSHSL   6  AA     24  (17- 7- 0)   0.744  0.0929
    92   MN  989.7544              Hopkins/Park  MSHSL   6  AA     25  ( 7-18- 0)   0.719  0.0866
                               

6AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions       
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Edina                                                 Edina                     Edina   1st-RD-Bye
2 Wayzata                       Hopkins/Park        @    Wayzata                  WAY      win by   8      goals
3 Benilde St Margarets          MinnehahaUnited     @    Benilde-St.Margaret's    BSM      win by   5 to 8 goals
4 Blake                         Armstrong/Cooper    2    Blake                    BLAKE    win by   5      goals
5 Armstrong/Cooper
6 United
7 Hopkins/Park

Re: WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 10:44 am
by LSQRANK
1st round calculations for section 7AA

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     1   MN 1000.0000                   Andover  MSHSL   7  AA     24  (24- 0- 0)   0.000  0.0000
    20   MN  995.3119        ElkRiver/Zimmerman  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (12-12- 1)   0.691  0.0801
    24   MN  994.8649                    Blaine  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (11-11- 3)   0.693  0.0805
    25   MN  994.7056      GrandRapids-Greenway  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (17- 8- 0)   0.704  0.0831
    45   MN  993.1179                ForestLake  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (13-12- 0)   0.708  0.0841
    57   MN  992.1320                     Anoka  MSHSL   7  AA     25  ( 7-18- 0)   0.695  0.0810
    81   MN  990.4466                    Duluth  MSHSL   7  AA     24  ( 6-18- 0)   0.728  0.0889
   106   MN  988.0945              NorthernTier  MSHSL   7  AA     24  ( 5-19- 0)   0.730  0.0894
   140   MN  984.2793                 Princeton  MSHSL   7  AA     25  ( 2-23- 0)   0.731  0.0896


                               Play-In round:   NorthernTier  wins by   4 goals over  Princeton


7AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions       
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Andover                       NorthernTier   @    Andover                 AND      win by   12 goals
2 Grand Rapids/Greenway         Duluth         @    GrandRapids-Greenway    GRG      win by    4 goals
3 Elk River                     Anoka          @    ElkRiver/Zimmerman      ERZ      win by    3 goals
4 Blaine                        ForestLake     @    Blaine                  BLAINE   win by    2 goals
5 Forest Lake
6 Anoka
7 Duluth
8 Northern Tier  
9 Princeton

Re: WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:28 pm
by LSQRANK
1st round calculations for section 8AA

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    28   MN  994.3077                  Moorhead  MSHSL   8  AA     25  (17- 8- 0)   0.723  0.0877
    31   MN  994.0113                Alexandria  MSHSL   8  AA     23  (12-10- 1)   0.744  0.0928
    36   MN  993.6805      Brainerd/LittleFalls  MSHSL   8  AA     24  (13-11- 0)   0.734  0.0903
    42   MN  993.2036                    Roseau  MSHSL   8  AA     24  (14- 8- 2)   0.735  0.0907
    52   MN  992.4617                  St.Cloud  MSHSL   8  AA     24  (13- 9- 2)   0.744  0.0927
    71   MN  991.1279                   Buffalo  MSHSL   8  AA     25  ( 5-18- 2)   0.716  0.0860
    89   MN  990.0237        Sartell/SaukRapids  MSHSL   8  AA     25  ( 6-17- 2)   0.736  0.0909
    91   MN  989.7635                   Bemidji  MSHSL   8  AA     24  ( 4-18- 2)   0.736  0.0908
		
8AA  seedings              Section [WW-LL-TT]    1st round  numerical predictions                [95% CI]
----------------           ------- ----------   ---------------------------------------------------------------
1   Moorhead               8-2-0   (17- 8- 0)   Bemidji            @  Moorhead     MOOR wins by   3 to 6  goals
2   Alexandria             6-2-1   (13-10- 1)   Buffalo            @  Alexandria   ALEX wins by   2 to 4  goals
3   Brainerd/LittleFalls   7-4-0   (13-11- 0)   Sartell/SaukRapids @  Brainerd     BRND wins by   2 to 5  goals
4   Roseau                 5-4-1   (14- 9- 2)   St.Cloud           @  Roseau      *ROS  wins by [-1 to 2] goals  OT
5   St.Cloud               3-4-2   (13- 9- 2)
6   Sartell/SaukRapids     1-7-2   ( 6-17- 2)               *ROS & STC tied T 3-3 in their only H2H meeting @ROS
7   Buffalo                1-4-2   ( 5-18- 2)
8	Bemidji                1-7-0   ( 4-19- 2)

Re: WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 8:31 pm
by LSQRANK
1st Round Calculations for Class 'single' A

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
   115   MN  987.4041                 AlbertLea  MSHSL   1   A     23  (12-10- 1)   0.771  0.0996
   123   MN  986.7657                    Austin  MSHSL   1   A     23  (13-10- 0)   0.786  0.1036
   150   MN  982.6642                    Waseca  MSHSL   1   A     24  ( 4-18- 2)   0.778  0.1015
   157   MN  981.7617                    Winona  MSHSL   1   A     17  ( 0-17- 0)   0.839  0.1180

1A  seedings                   1st round  numerical predictions            [95% CI]
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Albert Lea                   Winona    @    AlbertLea    ABL     wins by  4 to 7 goals
2 Austin                       Waseca    @    Austin       AUS     wins by  3 to 5 goals
3 Waseca
4 Winona


LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    83   MN  990.4221               MankatoEast  MSHSL   2   A     24  (19- 5- 0)   0.766  0.0984
   104   MN  988.2645  Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato  MSHSL   2   A     25  (11-13- 1)   0.744  0.0929
   114   MN  987.4365                Hutchinson  MSHSL   2   A     24  ( 3-20- 1)   0.740  0.0918
   118   MN  987.0185            MinnesotaRiver  MSHSL   2   A     24  (12-12- 0)   0.779  0.1018
   119   MN  986.9924                   Waconia  MSHSL   2   A     24  ( 4-19- 1)   0.743  0.0925
   149   MN  982.6683               MankatoWest  MSHSL   2   A     24  ( 4-19- 1)   0.772  0.0999


2A  seedings               1st round  numerical predictions                           [95% CI]
----------------           -----------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Mankato East             BYE          @   MankatoEast                 MKE  BYE
2 Litchfield               BYE          @   Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato    LDC  BYE
3 Minnesota River          MankatoWest  @   MinnesotaRiver              MNR  wins by   3 to 6  goals
4 Hutchinson               Waconia      @   Hutchinson                 *HUT  wins by [-1 to 2] goals
5 Waconia                                                              *WAC  wins by        1  goal  in reg or OT
6 Mankato West


LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    59   MN  992.1013                   Luverne  MSHSL   3   A     23  (20- 3- 0)   0.788  0.1041
    61   MN  991.9922                    NewUlm  MSHSL   3   A     24  (21- 3- 0)   0.766  0.0985
   111   MN  987.7916                  Marshall  MSHSL   3   A     25  (11-13- 1)   0.766  0.0984
   135   MN  984.8344                    Windom  MSHSL   3   A     21  ( 8-13- 0)   0.810  0.1101
   139   MN  984.4145                  Fairmont  MSHSL   3   A     21  ( 6-12- 3)   0.810  0.1101
   152   MN  982.4662               Worthington  MSHSL   3   A     23  ( 5-18- 0)   0.793  0.1053


3A  seedings                   1st round  numerical predictions                [95% CI]
----------------               ---------------------------------------------------------------
1 New Ulm                      BYE          @  NewUlm     NewUlm      BYE
2 Luverne                      BYE          @  Luverne    Luverne     BYE
3 Marshall                     Worthington  @  Marshall   Marshall    wins by    4 to 7  goals
4 Windom                       Fairmont     @  Windom    *Windom      wins by  [-1 to 2] goals
5 Fairmont                                               *Fairmont    wins by         1  goal in reg or OT
6 Worthington


LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    30   MN  994.1120                    Simley  MSHSL   4   A     25  (18- 4- 3)   0.731  0.0896
    44   MN  993.1713               SouthStPaul  MSHSL   4   A     25  (13-10- 2)   0.725  0.0882
    51   MN  992.4880              ChisagoLakes  MSHSL   4   A     25  (11-13- 1)   0.720  0.0868
    68   MN  991.4752         TwoRivers/St.Paul  MSHSL   4   A     25  (13-11- 1)   0.730  0.0894
   105   MN  988.2035                Visitation  MSHSL   4   A     23  (11-11- 1)   0.751  0.0946
   147   MN  983.0764                   RedWing  MSHSL   4   A     23  ( 4-19- 0)   0.763  0.0976


4A  seedings                   1st round  numerical predictions                     [95% CI]
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Simley                       BYE         @  Simley               SIM    BYE
2 South Saint Paul             BYE         @  SouthStPaul          SSP    BYE
3 St Paul/Two Rivers           RedWing     @  TwoRivers/St.Paul    TRSP   wins by    7 to 10 goals
4 Chisago Lakes                Visitation  @  ChisagoLakes         CHL    wins by    3 to  6 goals
5 Visitation
6 Red Wing


LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    11   MN  996.7978                     Orono  MSHSL   5   A     25  (22- 3- 0)   0.728  0.0889
    22   MN  994.9724                HolyAngels  MSHSL   5   A     25  (20- 4- 1)   0.732  0.0897
    26   MN  994.3860             MoundWestonka  MSHSL   5   A     25  (19- 6- 0)   0.727  0.0885
    54   MN  992.2759               Minneapolis  MSHSL   5   A     25  ( 8-16- 1)   0.732  0.0898
    77   MN  990.6888           Delano/Rockford  MSHSL   5   A     25  (13-11- 1)   0.729  0.0891
    85   MN  990.3136                     Breck  MSHSL   5   A     21  ( 1-19- 1)   0.751  0.0946
   103   MN  988.3207              PineCityArea  MSHSL   5   A     24  ( 9-14- 1)   0.743  0.0926


5A  seedings                   1st round  numerical predictions                       [95% CI]
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Orono                        BYE            @    Orono             ORO    BYE
2 Holy Angels                  PineCityArea   @    HolyAngels        HA     wins by    5 to 8 goals
3 Mound/Westonka               Breck          @    MoundWestonka     MWT    wins by    3 to 5 goals
4 Minneapolis                  Delano         @    Minneapolis       MSP    wins by    1 to 3 goals
5 Delano
6 Breck
7 Pine City


LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    53   MN  992.3681               FergusFalls  MSHSL   6   A     24  (18- 4- 2)   0.744  0.0929
    65   MN  991.6718                RiverLakes  MSHSL   6   A     25  (14-11- 0)   0.739  0.0915
    76   MN  990.7233                   Willmar  MSHSL   6   A     25  (13-12- 0)   0.747  0.0935
    95   MN  989.3377             NorthernLakes  MSHSL   6   A     25  (14-10- 1)   0.744  0.0927
   138   MN  984.6334     Breckenridge-Wahpeton  MSHSL   6   A     10  ( 5- 5- 0)   0.973  0.1586
   155   MN  981.9110             PrairieCentre  MSHSL   6   A     22  ( 5-16- 1)   0.777  0.1011
   168   MN  979.9411         Morris/BensonArea  MSHSL   6   A     22  ( 2-19- 1)   0.778  0.1015

6A  seedings                   1st round  numerical predictions                            [95% CI]
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Fergus Falls                 BYE                @     FergusFalls        FF     BYE
2 River Lakes                  BYE                @     RiverLakes         RL     BYE
3 Northern Lakes               Morris/BensonArea  @     NorthernLakes      NL     wins by   8 to 11 goals
4 Willmar                      PrairieCentre      @     Willmar            WIL    wins by   8 to 10 goals
5 Prairie Centre
6 Morris-Benson


LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    19   MN  995.8353        Proctor/Hermantown  MSHSL   7   A     25  (16- 7- 2)   0.703  0.0828
    41   MN  993.3344            DuluthMarshall  MSHSL   7   A     22  (15- 7- 0)   0.750  0.0943
    55   MN  992.1539      Cloquet-Esko-Carlton  MSHSL   7   A     25  (18- 6- 1)   0.726  0.0884
    66   MN  991.6120             MooseLakeArea  MSHSL   7   A     25  (18- 6- 1)   0.736  0.0908
    72   MN  991.1112          Hibbing/Chisholm  MSHSL   7   A     25  (11-12- 2)   0.730  0.0893
   121   MN  986.7738                 RockRidge  MSHSL   7   A     23  ( 7-16- 0)   0.751  0.0945
   126   MN  986.3972                NorthShore  MSHSL   7   A     25  ( 7-18- 0)   0.744  0.0929


7A  seedings                   1st round  numerical predictions                                    [95% CI]
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Proctor/Hermantown           BYE                @    Proctor/Hermantown     P/HT        BYE
2 Duluth Marshall              RockRidge          @    DuluthMarshall         DM          wins by   5 to 8 goals
3 CEC                          NorthShore         @    Cloquet-Esko-Carlton   CEC         wins by   5 to 7 goals
4 Moose Lake                   Hibbing/Chisholm   @    MooseLakeArea         *HIB or MLA  wins by   1      goal  in OT
5 Hibbing-Chisholm
6 North Shore                                                  *95% MOE ~ 1.5 goals      either team may win
7 Eveleth-Gilbert                                              *95% CI  ~ [ -1 ... 2 ]   Interval includes "0"



LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     5   MN  997.6741                   Warroad  MSHSL   8   A     24  (20- 3- 1)   0.699  0.0818
    79   MN  990.5387                 Crookston  MSHSL   8   A     22  (14- 7- 1)   0.769  0.0990
    98   MN  988.9395            EastGrandForks  MSHSL   8   A     19  ( 6-13- 0)   0.814  0.1111
   102   MN  988.3378           ThiefRiverFalls  MSHSL   8   A     23  ( 5-16- 2)   0.758  0.0963
   173   MN  979.2299              DetroitLakes  MSHSL   8   A     23  ( 4-19- 0)   0.768  0.0989
   177   MN  978.1653        InternationalFalls  MSHSL   8   A     20  ( 0-20- 0)   0.791  0.1049


8A  seedings                 1st round  numerical predictions                          [95% CI]
----------------             -------------------------------------------------------------------
1   Warroad                   BYE          @  Warroad           WARR  BYE
2   Crookston                 BYE          @  Crookston         CRK   BYE
3   EastGrandForks            IFalls       @  EastGrandForks    EGF   wins by    10 to 12 goals  
4   ThiefRiverFalls           DetroitLakes @  ThiefRiverFalls   TRF   wins by     8 to 10 goals
5   DetroitLakes
6   InternationalFalls

Re: WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:31 pm
by LSQRANK
1st round calculations for section 5AA

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     9   MN  996.8679                MapleGrove  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (17- 6- 2)   0.678  0.0770
    13   MN  996.5379                    Rogers  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (19- 4- 2)   0.694  0.0807
    14   MN  996.2374 Centennial/SpringLakePark  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (16- 8- 1)   0.691  0.0801
    17   MN  995.8836         NorthWrightCounty  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (14-10- 1)   0.711  0.0847
    29   MN  994.1265   ChamplinPark/CoonRapids  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (13-11- 1)   0.693  0.0806
    43   MN  993.1737          Osseo/ParkCenter  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (11-14- 0)   0.696  0.0813
    47   MN  992.9958                MoundsView  MSHSL   5  AA     24  (12-12- 0)   0.728  0.0888
   107   MN  988.0939       Irondale/St.Anthony  MSHSL   5  AA     25  ( 4-20- 1)   0.726  0.0882
   
5AA  seedings             1st round  numerical predictions                          [95% CI]
----------------          -------------------------------------------------------------------
1   MapleGrove             Irondale/St.Anthony  @   MapleGrove         MG  win by    8 to 10 goals
2   Rogers                 MoundsView           @   Rogers             ROG win by    2 to  5 goals
3   Centennial             Osseo/ParkCenter     @   Centennial         CSP win by    2 to  4 goals
4   NorthWrightCounty      ChamplinPark/CR      @   NorthWrightCounty  NWC win by    1 to  3 goals
5   ChamplinPark/CR
6   Osseo/ParkCenter
7   MoundsView
8   Irondale/St.Anthony

Re: WEEK 13: Girls HS Hockey Computerized Ratings Feb 06, 2022

Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2022 9:32 pm
by LSQRANK
1st Round Calculations for Class 'double' AA

Code: Select all

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    10   MN  996.8110            LakevilleSouth  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (23- 2- 0)   0.747  0.0934
    35   MN  993.6948            LakevilleNorth  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (11-13- 1)   0.752  0.0947
    38   MN  993.4321                Northfield  MSHSL   1  AA     24  (16- 5- 3)   0.744  0.0928
    39   MN  993.4180                Farmington  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (11-14- 0)   0.748  0.0937
    48   MN  992.9448               DodgeCounty  MSHSL   1  AA     26  (15-11- 0)   0.721  0.0871
    63   MN  991.8493                  Owatonna  MSHSL   1  AA     25  (15- 8- 2)   0.738  0.0914
   128   MN  986.1877             RochesterMayo  MSHSL   1  AA     25  ( 9-16- 0)   0.761  0.0971
   136   MN  984.8070          RochesterCentury  MSHSL   1  AA     24  ( 6-17- 1)   0.761  0.0970

95% MOE = ~ 1.5 goals
   
1AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions                           [95% CI]
--------------------          --------------------------------------------------------------------         
1 Lakeville South              RochesterCentury @  LakevilleSouth     LVS          win by 11 to 13 goals
2 Northfield                   RochesterMayo    @  Northfield         NFLD         win by  6 to  8 goals
3 Farmington                   Owatonna         @  Farmington         FARM         win by  1 to  3 goals
4 Lakeville North              DodgeCounty      @  LakevilleNorth    *LVN or DC    win by        1 goal  in OT
5 Dodge County
6 Owatonna                                                           *slight edge to LVN
7 Rochester Mayo
8 Rochester Century   

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     3   MN  999.0556                Minnetonka  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (19- 6- 0)   0.684  0.0785	 
     4   MN  997.6774                HolyFamily  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (20- 4- 1)   0.712  0.0851
    33   MN  993.9076               EdenPrairie  MSHSL   2  AA     24  ( 8-16- 0)   0.721  0.0871
    34   MN  993.8616                  Shakopee  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (10-15- 0)   0.745  0.0929
    37   MN  993.4794         Chaska/Chanhassen  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (11-14- 0)   0.730  0.0893
    60   MN  992.0043      BloomingtonJefferson  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (12-13- 0)   0.731  0.0895
    62   MN  991.9735                 PriorLake  MSHSL   2  AA     25  ( 6-18- 1)   0.748  0.0938
    73   MN  991.0980                 NewPrague  MSHSL   2  AA     25  (10-12- 3)   0.737  0.0910
		
2AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions                              [95% CI]
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Minnetonka                   NewPrague             @   Minnetonka      MNTK        win by   7 to 9 goals
2 Holy Family                  PriorLake             @   HolyFamily      HF          win by   5 to 7 goals
3 Shakopee                     BloomingtonJefferson  @   Shakopee        SKP         win by   1 to 3 goals
4 Eden Prairie                 Chaska/Chanhassen     @   EdenPrairie     EP or CC    win by        1 goal   in OT
5 Chaska/Chanhassen
6 Jefferson
7 Prior Lake
8 New Prague	

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    18   MN  995.8732                Burnsville  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (19- 5- 1)   0.745  0.0931
    21   MN  995.2051                 Rosemount  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (17- 8- 0)   0.748  0.0939
    23   MN  994.9422         Cretin-DerhamHall  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (16- 7- 2)   0.721  0.0872
    32   MN  993.9329                  Eastview  MSHSL   3  AA     24  (11-12- 1)   0.755  0.0957
    50   MN  992.7154               AppleValley  MSHSL   3  AA     25  (10-13- 2)   0.746  0.0934
    56   MN  992.1364                     Eagan  MSHSL   3  AA     25  ( 5-19- 1)   0.747  0.0936
    82   MN  990.4408                  Hastings  MSHSL   3  AA     25  ( 8-16- 1)   0.730  0.0894
    84   MN  990.3882        ParkofCottageGrove  MSHSL   3  AA     25  ( 8-17- 0)   0.730  0.0893
	
3AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions                            [95% CI]
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Burnsville                   ParkofCottageGrove     @    Burnsville         BSV   win by  4 to 6 goals
2 Cretin-Derham Hall           Hastings               @    Cretin-DerhamHall  CDH   win by  3 to 5 goals
3 Rosemount                    Eagan                  @    Rosemount          RSMT  win by  2 to 4 goals
4 Eastview                     AppleValley            @   *Eastview           ESTV  win by  1 to 2 goals  in reg
5 Apple Valley                                                             or APV   win by       1 goal   in OT
6 Eagan                                                    *edge to Eastview                 
7 Hastings                                                 *95% CI = [ -0.3  to  +2.7 ]
8 Park Cottage Grove	                                               

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     8   MN  997.1430             GentryAcademy  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (18- 6- 0)   0.707  0.0839
    12   MN  996.6281               Hill-Murray  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (16- 8- 0)   0.704  0.0832
    15   MN  996.2218                Stillwater  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (13- 9- 2)   0.712  0.0851
    27   MN  994.3128                 Roseville  MSHSL   4  AA     25  (15- 8- 2)   0.719  0.0866
    40   MN  993.3624                 EastRidge  MSHSL   4  AA     25  (14-10- 1)   0.727  0.0886
    58   MN  992.1179                  Woodbury  MSHSL   4  AA     25  (14-11- 0)   0.727  0.0885
    67   MN  991.5381       NorthSt.Paul/Tartan  MSHSL   4  AA     24  (15- 9- 0)   0.745  0.0930
    80   MN  990.4707             WhiteBearLake  MSHSL   4  AA     25  ( 5-19- 1)   0.720  0.0869
   110   MN  987.8143                 Mahtomedi  MSHSL   4  AA     24  ( 3-21- 0)   0.735  0.0905
   
   
                               Play-In round:  WhiteBearLake wins by   2 to 3 goals over  Mahtomedi
   
4AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions                       [95% CI]
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Gentry Academy                #WhiteBearLake         @   #GentryAcademy  GA   win by  6 to 8  goals
2 Stillwater                     NorthSt.Paul/Tartan   @    Stillwater     STW  win by  4 to 6  goals
3 Hill-Murray                    Woodbury              @    Hill-Murray    HM   win by  3 to 6  goals
4 Roseville                      EastRidge             @   *Roseville      RSV  win by  1 to 2  goals in reg
5 East Ridge                                                           or  ESR  win by  1       goal in OT
6 Woodbury                                                        
7 North/Tartan                  #dual Home Ice                     *edge to Roseville
8 White Bear Lake                                                  *95% CI [ -0.5  to  +2.5 ]
9 Mahtomedi  

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     9   MN  996.8679                MapleGrove  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (17- 6- 2)   0.678  0.0770
    13   MN  996.5379                    Rogers  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (19- 4- 2)   0.694  0.0807
    14   MN  996.2374 Centennial/SpringLakePark  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (16- 8- 1)   0.691  0.0801
    17   MN  995.8836         NorthWrightCounty  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (14-10- 1)   0.711  0.0847
    29   MN  994.1265   ChamplinPark/CoonRapids  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (13-11- 1)   0.693  0.0806
    43   MN  993.1737          Osseo/ParkCenter  MSHSL   5  AA     25  (11-14- 0)   0.696  0.0813
    47   MN  992.9958                MoundsView  MSHSL   5  AA     24  (12-12- 0)   0.728  0.0888
   107   MN  988.0939       Irondale/St.Anthony  MSHSL   5  AA     25  ( 4-20- 1)   0.726  0.0882
   
5AA  seedings             1st round  numerical predictions                          [95% CI]
----------------          -------------------------------------------------------------------
1   MapleGrove             Irondale/St.Anthony  @   MapleGrove         MG  win by    8 to 10 goals
2   Rogers                 MoundsView           @   Rogers             ROG win by    2 to  5 goals
3   Centennial             Osseo/ParkCenter     @   Centennial         CSP win by    2 to  4 goals
4   NorthWrightCounty      ChamplinPark/CR      @   NorthWrightCounty  NWC win by    1 to  3 goals
5   ChamplinPark/CR
6   Osseo/ParkCenter
7   MoundsView
8   Irondale/St.Anthony 
      
LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     2   MN  999.3031                     Edina  MSHSL   6  AA     25  (23- 2- 0)   0.697  0.0814
     6   MN  997.5679                   Wayzata  MSHSL   6  AA     25  (16- 8- 1)   0.695  0.0810
     7   MN  997.5331     Benilde-St.Margaret's  MSHSL   6  AA     24  (18- 5- 1)   0.711  0.0847
    16   MN  996.0761                     Blake  MSHSL   6  AA     23  (13-10- 0)   0.716  0.0859
    70   MN  991.2884          Armstrong/Cooper  MSHSL   6  AA     25  (11-13- 1)   0.698  0.0817
    74   MN  991.0598           MinnehahaUnited  MSHSL   6  AA     24  (17- 7- 0)   0.744  0.0929
    92   MN  989.7544              Hopkins/Park  MSHSL   6  AA     25  ( 7-18- 0)   0.719  0.0866
                               
6AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions                             [95% CI]
----------------               --------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Edina                         BYE                   Edina                  Edina  Bye
2 Wayzata                       Hopkins/Park      @   Wayzata                WAY    win by   7 to 9 goals
3 Benilde St Margarets          MinnehahaUnited   @   Benilde-St.Margaret's  BSM    win by   5 to 8 goals
4 Blake                         Armstrong/Cooper  @   Blake                  BLAKE  win by   4 to 6 goals
5 Armstrong/Cooper
6 United
7 Hopkins/Park

LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
     1   MN 1000.0000                   Andover  MSHSL   7  AA     24  (24- 0- 0)   0.000  0.0000
    20   MN  995.3119        ElkRiver/Zimmerman  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (12-12- 1)   0.691  0.0801
    24   MN  994.8649                    Blaine  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (11-11- 3)   0.693  0.0805
    25   MN  994.7056      GrandRapids-Greenway  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (17- 8- 0)   0.704  0.0831
    45   MN  993.1179                ForestLake  MSHSL   7  AA     25  (13-12- 0)   0.708  0.0841
    57   MN  992.1320                     Anoka  MSHSL   7  AA     25  ( 7-18- 0)   0.695  0.0810
    81   MN  990.4466                    Duluth  MSHSL   7  AA     24  ( 6-18- 0)   0.728  0.0889
   106   MN  988.0945              NorthernTier  MSHSL   7  AA     24  ( 5-19- 0)   0.730  0.0894
   140   MN  984.2793                 Princeton  MSHSL   7  AA     25  ( 2-23- 0)   0.731  0.0896

                               Play-In round:   NorthernTier  wins by   4 goals over  Princeton

7AA  seedings                  1st round  numerical predictions                            [95% CI]
----------------               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Andover                       NorthernTier   @    Andover               AND      win by  11 to 13 goals
2 Grand Rapids/Greenway         Duluth         @    GrandRapids-Greenway  GRG      win by   3 to  5 goals
3 Elk River                     Anoka          @    ElkRiver/Zimmerman    ERZ      win by   2 to  4 goals
4 Blaine                        ForestLake     @    Blaine                BLAINE   win by   1 to  2 goals
5 Forest Lake
6 Anoka
7 Duluth
8 Northern Tier  
9 Princeton


LSQRANK  State  Score                      Team      LG  SECCLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)   Sxx    Qxx
=================================================================================================== 
    28   MN  994.3077                  Moorhead  MSHSL   8  AA     25  (17- 8- 0)   0.723  0.0877
    31   MN  994.0113                Alexandria  MSHSL   8  AA     23  (12-10- 1)   0.744  0.0928
    36   MN  993.6805      Brainerd/LittleFalls  MSHSL   8  AA     24  (13-11- 0)   0.734  0.0903
    42   MN  993.2036                    Roseau  MSHSL   8  AA     24  (14- 8- 2)   0.735  0.0907
    52   MN  992.4617                  St.Cloud  MSHSL   8  AA     24  (13- 9- 2)   0.744  0.0927
    71   MN  991.1279                   Buffalo  MSHSL   8  AA     25  ( 5-18- 2)   0.716  0.0860
    89   MN  990.0237        Sartell/SaukRapids  MSHSL   8  AA     25  ( 6-17- 2)   0.736  0.0909
    91   MN  989.7635                   Bemidji  MSHSL   8  AA     24  ( 4-18- 2)   0.736  0.0908
		
8AA  seedings              Section [WW-LL-TT]    1st round  numerical predictions                [95% CI]
----------------           ------- ----------   ---------------------------------------------------------------
1   Moorhead               8-2-0   (17- 8- 0)   Bemidji            @  Moorhead     MOOR wins by   3 to 6  goals
2   Alexandria             6-2-1   (13-10- 1)   Buffalo            @  Alexandria   ALEX wins by   2 to 4  goals
3   Brainerd/LittleFalls   7-4-0   (13-11- 0)   Sartell/SaukRapids @  Brainerd     BRND wins by   2 to 5  goals
4   Roseau                 5-4-1   (14- 9- 2)   St.Cloud           @  Roseau      *ROS  wins by [-1 to 2] goals  OT
5   St.Cloud               3-4-2   (13- 9- 2)
6   Sartell/SaukRapids     1-7-2   ( 6-17- 2)               *ROS & STC tied T 3-3 in their only H2H meeting @ROS
7   Buffalo                1-4-2   ( 5-18- 2)
8	Bemidji                1-7-0   ( 4-19- 2)
All times are UTC-05:00
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